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There was another thread about the national "Bubble Watch", and I have some time on my hands, so I tried to lay out where the Big East teams stand. Here is how I view the Big East at the moment.
Safely in:
UConn - 14-1, #2 NET, #2 KenPom, 27-4 projected record (KenPom)
Xavier - 12-3, #20 NET, #20 KenPom, 22-9 projected record
Marquette - 11-4, #28 NET, #23 KenPom, 21-10 projected record
Those three are pretty clear cut. If the season was over today, they would be in. They would have to play themselves out.
Currently in, but on the bubble:
Creighton - 8-6, #36 NET, #26 KenPom, 18-13 projected
8-6 isn't a good record, and I didn't buy into them as a surefire top-10 team. Still, they should be a tournament team if they stay healthy, and could work their way back to the top 25. Any more bad losses now that they're healthy would change things.
Not quite in, on the bubble:
Providence - 11-3, #57 NET, #49 KenPom, 20-11 projected record
They don't have a great resume in terms of quality wins. They have a decent record with no bad losses, though, and will have plenty of chances to play themselves in. In fact, a victory over us should put them on the right side of the bubble. I want the conference to have a bunch of tournament teams, but I want to beat them by 20.
Outside looking in, still hope:
Villanova - 7-7, #91 NET, #53 KenPom, 16-15 projected record
Seton Hall - 7-7, #83 NET, #57 KenPom, 16-15 projected record
Outside looking in, less hope:
St. John's - 11-4, #101 NET, #69 KenPom, 18-13 projected record
Butler - 8-6 #82 NET, #91 KenPom, 15-16 projected record.
Out of those four, I see Nova as the most likely tournament team. I don't think Justin Moore can be counted on. If he provides something, they might pick up their play, and they've obviously played better with Whitmore. They have some talent and experience, and should be a top-5 team in the conference. St. John's brutal loss to Seton Hall was a huge blow for them. I don't think they're very good. Seton Hall has beaten Memphis and Rutgers at least. Butler doesn't really have a chance, barring a dramatic turnaround. They're just not as bad as the worst two in the conference.
Drag on the conference
DePaul - 7-7, #181 NET, #130 KenPom, 11-20 projected record
Georgetown - 5-9, #219 NET, #169 KenPom, 9-22 projected record
Georgetown has some talent, right? They shouldn't be this bad, yet here we are. Losing to either of these teams sure would hurt anyone's tournament resume.
Overall, I see us as a 4-6 bid conference. My biggest concern is that everyone could beat one another enough that none of the teams outside of the top 3 or 4 really distinguish themselves. Without separation between Providence, Nova, Seton Hall, and maybe St. John's, they could all be left out. The benefit is that we are in great position to win the conference and earn a #1 or #2 seed if we play the way we've shown we're capable of. Ultimately, that's what I care about the most.
Safely in:
UConn - 14-1, #2 NET, #2 KenPom, 27-4 projected record (KenPom)
Xavier - 12-3, #20 NET, #20 KenPom, 22-9 projected record
Marquette - 11-4, #28 NET, #23 KenPom, 21-10 projected record
Those three are pretty clear cut. If the season was over today, they would be in. They would have to play themselves out.
Currently in, but on the bubble:
Creighton - 8-6, #36 NET, #26 KenPom, 18-13 projected
8-6 isn't a good record, and I didn't buy into them as a surefire top-10 team. Still, they should be a tournament team if they stay healthy, and could work their way back to the top 25. Any more bad losses now that they're healthy would change things.
Not quite in, on the bubble:
Providence - 11-3, #57 NET, #49 KenPom, 20-11 projected record
They don't have a great resume in terms of quality wins. They have a decent record with no bad losses, though, and will have plenty of chances to play themselves in. In fact, a victory over us should put them on the right side of the bubble. I want the conference to have a bunch of tournament teams, but I want to beat them by 20.
Outside looking in, still hope:
Villanova - 7-7, #91 NET, #53 KenPom, 16-15 projected record
Seton Hall - 7-7, #83 NET, #57 KenPom, 16-15 projected record
Outside looking in, less hope:
St. John's - 11-4, #101 NET, #69 KenPom, 18-13 projected record
Butler - 8-6 #82 NET, #91 KenPom, 15-16 projected record.
Out of those four, I see Nova as the most likely tournament team. I don't think Justin Moore can be counted on. If he provides something, they might pick up their play, and they've obviously played better with Whitmore. They have some talent and experience, and should be a top-5 team in the conference. St. John's brutal loss to Seton Hall was a huge blow for them. I don't think they're very good. Seton Hall has beaten Memphis and Rutgers at least. Butler doesn't really have a chance, barring a dramatic turnaround. They're just not as bad as the worst two in the conference.
Drag on the conference
DePaul - 7-7, #181 NET, #130 KenPom, 11-20 projected record
Georgetown - 5-9, #219 NET, #169 KenPom, 9-22 projected record
Georgetown has some talent, right? They shouldn't be this bad, yet here we are. Losing to either of these teams sure would hurt anyone's tournament resume.
Overall, I see us as a 4-6 bid conference. My biggest concern is that everyone could beat one another enough that none of the teams outside of the top 3 or 4 really distinguish themselves. Without separation between Providence, Nova, Seton Hall, and maybe St. John's, they could all be left out. The benefit is that we are in great position to win the conference and earn a #1 or #2 seed if we play the way we've shown we're capable of. Ultimately, that's what I care about the most.
