Big Bubble Night Discussion | Page 14 | The Boneyard

Big Bubble Night Discussion

Its a safer world. Down goes Indiana. Down goes Boise St. Down goes Duke. Down goes Xavier. And for spite - Down goes Toledo - (to Central Mich), and maybe Ky down again trailing Ole Miss. Aahh. Its a shame.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
You and most of this board are beyond wrong on this. UConn has now found itself in the position of desperately needing a win over Seton Hall or we could be in danger of not going to the dance, and a win only gets us a crappy seed. This despite having a team that has Sweet 16 talent.

SJ's argument is that the Big East is going to get at least 3 bids no matter what. He may be right, but now the Big East is a 3 bid league when it hits the recruiting trail. Didn't UConn just leave a 3 bid league? Each season is not an island. They impact the seasons that come afterward. There is no upside and all downside for how UConn has managed its schedule this season, and rather than just acknowledge it, most of you are defending it as if it was brilliant.

None of you can put together a remotely coherent rationale for why barely making the Tournament is a great accomplishment for this team.
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Here’s the thing, you don’t know what could have been done better. You can’t say with absolute certainty that we didn’t try to get games, especially games that would have helped our metrics. I think in an ideal situation everyone agrees with the premise, but that doesn’t mean a workable situation came up.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
You and most of this board are beyond wrong on this. UConn has now found itself in the position of desperately needing a win over Seton Hall or we could be in danger of not going to the dance, and a win only gets us a crappy seed. This despite having a team that has Sweet 16 talent.

SJ's argument is that the Big East is going to get at least 3 bids no matter what. He may be right, but now the Big East is a 3 bid league when it hits the recruiting trail. Didn't UConn just leave a 3 bid league? Each season is not an island. They impact the seasons that come afterward. There is no upside and all downside for how UConn has managed its schedule this season, and rather than just acknowledge it, most of you are defending it as if it was brilliant.

None of you can put together a remotely coherent rationale for why barely making the Tournament is a great accomplishment for this team.
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First, explain your observation that UConn is barely making the tournament. There's two games left in the regular season plus the Big East tournament and none of us know how that will turn out or how teams in other leagues will finish their seasons and their conference tournaments. Look at Michigan tonight, or Duke.

Next, if the team has Sweet 16 talent and is, in your eyes, doing so poorly that must be an indictment of Dan Hurley. Is that your evaluation of the coach?

Lastly, have you considered three shutdowns for the virus (courtesy of the state's political leaders, not the coach or the AD) might have impacted the schedule?
 
Boise State, Xavier, Duke, and Indiana all lose pushing UConn further into the bracket.

Tomorrow is UConn gameday so that takes priority but things to keep an eye on before and after the game:

Syracuse (NET 55) v. Clemson at 5 on ACCN
  • A must win for a Cuse squad that is 0-6 in Q1 games. I hope they lose by 1,000. This is a Q2 game but would be a good scalp for them to get and maybe give them a shot of making it in without necessarily winning the ACC Tourney (but still at minimum need a deep run)
Wichita State (NET 66) v. Tulane at 6 on ESPN+ (LOL)
  • A no win game for the Shockers. Nothing like a nice Q3 game on the road in conference when you need to keep your head above water on the bubble. A loss ends the Shockers season.
Your University of Connecticut Huskies (NET 34) v. Seton Hall (NET 52) at 6:30 on FS1
  • A win for UConn likely cements a tourney bid for the first time since 2016. A loss is not ideal but should be OK (really hoping for revenge here). Seton Hall needs this game badly. They sit in the Last Four In of most brackets. A loss at home doesn't sink them but would require them to beat SJU over the weekend and probably win at least 2 in the Big East tourney and even then it's no guarantee.
Colorado State (NET 39) v. New Mexico at 8 on MW Network???
  • Judging by the fact I'm not even sure how to watch this game, it's a no win game for CSU. A win does nothing, a loss puts them in dangerous territory.
Maryland (NET 28) v. Northwestern at 9 on BTN
  • Terrapins are off the bubble, but losing this game is a good way to get back on it

Stanford (NET 61) v. USC at 10:30 on FS1
  • UConn's best win of the season takes on a Cardinal team on the outside looking in. Stanford needs this win or else a PAC 12 Tourney Title to go dancing.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
You and most of this board are beyond wrong on this. UConn has now found itself in the position of desperately needing a win over Seton Hall or we could be in danger of not going to the dance, and a win only gets us a crappy seed. This despite having a team that has Sweet 16 talent.

SJ's argument is that the Big East is going to get at least 3 bids no matter what. He may be right, but now the Big East is a 3 bid league when it hits the recruiting trail. Didn't UConn just leave a 3 bid league? Each season is not an island. They impact the seasons that come afterward. There is no upside and all downside for how UConn has managed its schedule this season, and rather than just acknowledge it, most of you are defending it as if it was brilliant.

None of you can put together a remotely coherent rationale for why barely making the Tournament is a great accomplishment for this team.
Expand ...
That is some mighty strong self-scaffolding to build your argument. It gets stronger and stronger with each unchecked assumption.

There ought to be a link at the bottom, so people can sign up for the whole course.
 
.-.
nelsonmuntz said:
You and most of this board are beyond wrong on this. UConn has now found itself in the position of desperately needing a win over Seton Hall or we could be in danger of not going to the dance, and a win only gets us a crappy seed. This despite having a team that has Sweet 16 talent.

SJ's argument is that the Big East is going to get at least 3 bids no matter what. He may be right, but now the Big East is a 3 bid league when it hits the recruiting trail. Didn't UConn just leave a 3 bid league? Each season is not an island. They impact the seasons that come afterward. There is no upside and all downside for how UConn has managed its schedule this season, and rather than just acknowledge it, most of you are defending it as if it was brilliant.

None of you can put together a remotely coherent rationale for why barely making the Tournament is a great accomplishment for this team.
Expand ...

So, by your logic,
1) The B1G is the greatest conference in the history of all sports, and can recruit off of that. Call me April 10th on that one.
2) UNC's loss against Marquette never happened, or couldn't possibly happen to us.
3) The numbers / metrics / circumstances for this season are just like any other. I'll enjoy Colgate as a protected seed, i guess.

Bring on another useless strawman response...
 
Storrs South said:
Boise State, Xavier, Duke, and Indiana all lose pushing UConn further into the bracket.

Tomorrow is UConn gameday so that takes priority but things to keep an eye on before and after the game:

Syracuse (NET 55) v. Clemson at 5 on ACCN
  • A must win for a Cuse squad that is 0-6 in Q1 games. I hope they lose by 1,000. This is a Q2 game but would be a good scalp for them to get and maybe give them a shot of making it in without necessarily winning the ACC Tourney (but still at minimum need a deep run)
Wichita State (NET 66) v. Tulane at 6 on ESPN+ (LOL)
  • A no win game for the Shockers. Nothing like a nice Q3 game on the road in conference when you need to keep your head above water on the bubble. A loss ends the Shockers season.
Your University of Connecticut Huskies (NET 34) v. Seton Hall (NET 52) at 6:30 on FS1
  • A win for UConn likely cements a tourney bid for the first time since 2016. A loss is not ideal but should be OK (really hoping for revenge here). Seton Hall needs this game badly. They sit in the Last Four In of most brackets. A loss at home doesn't sink them but would require them to beat SJU over the weekend and probably win at least 2 in the Big East tourney and even then it's no guarantee.
Colorado State (NET 39) v. New Mexico at 8 on MW Network???
  • Judging by the fact I'm not even sure how to watch this game, it's a no win game for CSU. A win does nothing, a loss puts them in dangerous territory.
Maryland (NET 28) v. Northwestern at 9 on BTN
  • Terrapins are off the bubble, but losing this game is a good way to get back on it

Stanford (NET 61) v. USC at 10:30 on FS1
  • UConn's best win of the season takes on a Cardinal team on the outside looking in. Stanford needs this win or else a PAC 12 Tourney Title to go dancing.
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A perfect night would be Clemson, Tulane, UConn, UNM, NW, and USC. i waffle a bit on Wichita for AG, but not much.
 
pepband99 said:
So, by your logic,
1) The B1G is the greatest conference in the history of all sports, and can recruit off of that. Call me April 10th on that one.
2) UNC's loss against Marquette never happened, or couldn't possibly happen to us.
3) The numbers / metrics / circumstances for this season are just like any other. I'll enjoy Colgate as a protected seed, i guess.

Bring on another useless strawman response...
Expand ...


I think the Big 10 is overrated, but they actually played some games out of conference and the Big East, for the most part, didn't. This is especially true of UConn.

As for the strawman argument, you are the one defending not playing any games, not me, yet neither you nor anyone else can make a coherent, affirmative argument for why playing 3 non-conference games is a good idea. So you make strawman arguments like the one above.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
I think the Big 10 is overrated, but they actually played some games out of conference and the Big East, for the most part, didn't. This is especially true of UConn.

As for the strawman argument, you are the one defending not playing any games, not me, yet neither you nor anyone else can make a coherent, affirmative argument for why playing 3 non-conference games is a good idea. So you make strawman arguments like the one above.
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I'm defending not adding games right now. You're the one who isn't making the distinction between the B1G's earlier OOC games and the ones being added now. Big difference.

UConn should have a game against NC State and Nova on the board. If those 2 happened, this wouldn't even be worth discussing.
 
pepband99 said:
I'm defending not adding games right now. You're the one who isn't making the distinction between the B1G's earlier OOC games and the ones being added now. Big difference.

UConn should have a game against NC State and Nova on the board. If those 2 happened, this wouldn't even be worth discussing.
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And BYU
 
Ricker said:
Last night John Fanta opined that we wouldn't be higher than an 8 even if we we won the BE tournament. I think that's crazy, but that is even coming from a knowledgeable UConn advocate. I heard that elsewhere channel flipping, so I wouldn't be so fast to say that just reaching the final 'definitely' makes us a better seed than 8. Keep in mind my own opinion is that we should be a 6 winning this week and being a finalist, and maybe even a 5 if we win and other 5's and 6's struggle.
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I think you are closer to the truth than the experts that you are worried about. But we will have to see. At the end of the day, all anyone can do is predict how other human beings will process the available information.
 
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Updated Lunardi bracket this am.....UConn still in same spot & Xavier / S Hall remain in his field.

If you look at his last 8 teams "out" there really isn't much going on except teams that have been doing a lot of losing with not many games left besides conference tourney's to win quality games.

www.espn.com

Zach Edey returning to Purdue shakes up Bracketology in a big way

Kansas remains the clear preseason No. 1, but the Boilermakers have slipped in behind the Jayhawks as a probable repeat 1-seed with revenge on their minds.
www.espn.com
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
Great point. The Selection Committee only cares about numbers, the fact that UConn only has 1 win over a Tournament team won't hurt our seedings at all.

BTW, if UConn loses to Seton Hall, you will have been proven catastrophically wrong about UConn's NCAA strategy. I can't remember the last time a poster's credibility was as all in on one game as yours is.
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Lol. Find me a post I made about scheduling/adding games that would have stakes this large.

This is the only one I can find:
auror said:
Most of the metrics are per possession (all the predictive advanced stats) or per game schedule-based (all the strength of record stats and WAB). The NET is a combo of the two so doesn't factor raw games in at all. As mentioned, Colgate has only played 12 games total and is inexplicably in the top 13 of NET.

The obsession with quadrants is the one area that playing more games may help, assuming you're playing good teams and winning. But we don't know for sure that the committee actually obsesses over the quadrants like all the horse race bracketologists and "experts" do.
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Which is just laying out facts, uncertainty, and agreeing with you? There are no declarative statements here at all. Am I on the hook for seppuku if lose tonight? You may have me confused with someone else.
 
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Storrs South said:
Boise State, Xavier, Duke, and Indiana all lose pushing UConn further into the bracket.

Tomorrow is UConn gameday so that takes priority but things to keep an eye on before and after the game:

Syracuse (NET 55) v. Clemson at 5 on ACCN
  • A must win for a Cuse squad that is 0-6 in Q1 games. I hope they lose by 1,000. This is a Q2 game but would be a good scalp for them to get and maybe give them a shot of making it in without necessarily winning the ACC Tourney (but still at minimum need a deep run)
Wichita State (NET 66) v. Tulane at 6 on ESPN+ (LOL)
  • A no win game for the Shockers. Nothing like a nice Q3 game on the road in conference when you need to keep your head above water on the bubble. A loss ends the Shockers season.
Your University of Connecticut Huskies (NET 34) v. Seton Hall (NET 52) at 6:30 on FS1
  • A win for UConn likely cements a tourney bid for the first time since 2016. A loss is not ideal but should be OK (really hoping for revenge here). Seton Hall needs this game badly. They sit in the Last Four In of most brackets. A loss at home doesn't sink them but would require them to beat SJU over the weekend and probably win at least 2 in the Big East tourney and even then it's no guarantee.
Colorado State (NET 39) v. New Mexico at 8 on MW Network???
  • Judging by the fact I'm not even sure how to watch this game, it's a no win game for CSU. A win does nothing, a loss puts them in dangerous territory.
Maryland (NET 28) v. Northwestern at 9 on BTN
  • Terrapins are off the bubble, but losing this game is a good way to get back on it

Stanford (NET 61) v. USC at 10:30 on FS1
  • UConn's best win of the season takes on a Cardinal team on the outside looking in. Stanford needs this win or else a PAC 12 Tourney Title to go dancing.
Expand ...
Thanks for the breakdown @Storrs South. I'll also be keeping my eye on the Big East games tonight obviously, including St Johns v Providence. It'll be tough for both those teams to get above the 75 NET Line but we want at least one of them to be there at the end of the day. Additionally, I think there's a very outside chance that the winner of that game could make a bubble push with a BET run.

Also, I'll be checking in on Mizzou v Florida and Oregon v UCLA. If things continue to break our way I could see us competing with those guys for seeding come selection Sunday.

And lastly, I think Minnesota is already dead but a loss to State Penn tonight would be the final blow.
 
auror said:
Lol. Find me a post I made about scheduling/adding games that would have stakes this large.

This is the only one I can find:

Which is just laying out facts, uncertainty, and agreeing with you? There are no declarative statements here at all. Am I on the hook for seppuku if lose tonight?
Expand ...

I am saying we should have played more mid-majors in January and February. You are saying we shouldn't. So yes, you should probably start working on one of those Samurai death poems, just in case.
 
.-.
nelsonmuntz said:
I am saying we should have played more mid-majors in January and February. You are saying we shouldn't. So yes, you should probably start working on one of those Samurai death poems, just in case.
Expand ...
nelsonmuntz said:
Great point. The Selection Committee only cares about numbers, the fact that UConn only has 1 win over a Tournament team won't hurt our seedings at all.

BTW, if UConn loses to Seton Hall, you will have been proven catastrophically wrong about UConn's NCAA strategy. I can't remember the last time a poster's credibility was as all in on one game as yours is.
Expand ...

?? What do mid majors (your examples were Fairfield and Hartford I think) have to do with beating tournament teams to increase our seed? You don't make any sense at all dude. I didn't even say I was opposed to playing them. Just made a semi-joke that we may not have beaten them with Bouk and Jackson out.

You got caught thinking I had been more strong on this than I was, and now you're trying to put two different arguments together to make me look bad. Well, I kinda think it's having the opposite effect.
 
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auror said:
?? What do mid majors (your examples were Fairfield and Hartford I think) have to do with beating tournament teams to increase our seed? You don't make any sense at all dude.

You got caught thinking I had been more strong on this than I was, and now you're trying to put two different arguments together to make me look bad.
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Yes....we are 7-0 in Q3 & Q4 so we really didn't need to improve on that anymore by playing Fairfield or Marist.

If a Q1 or Q2 mid-major (wouldn't be many playing at Storrs) wanted to come here in Jan / Feb then we should have said yes if it was workable but I don't think that happened. We did try try to get Nova on Feb 25 and they declined I believe.
 
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nelsonmuntz said:
I am saying we should have played more mid-majors in January and February. You are saying we shouldn't. So yes, you should probably start working on one of those Samurai death poems, just in case.
Expand ...
This post is the first time I ever understood you to be making this statement. If you were saying it before, you either communicated poorly, or I read poorly. It seems that the others in this conversation are in the same boat as me, so I tend to think @auror is on the right track: You have finally realized your argument is indefensible, and you're scrambling.
 
Get a Job said:
This post is the first time I ever understood you to be making this statement. If you were saying it before, you either communicated poorly, or I read poorly. It seems that the others in this conversation are in the same boat as me, so I tend to think @auror is on the right track: You have finally realized your argument is indefensible, and you're scrambling.
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...because that's not really what he said. He said "local" - which really means a Q3/Q4 game OOC game. Which won't help our bid chance / SOS / team at all.

He's backtracking because his questionable position becomes even worse with mounting data.
 
The #1 Bracketologist over the past 5 years has Uconn as a 10 seed and team #38 overall...just updated today.

Interesting note: has St. John's & Providence at the very edge of his "teams out" bubble at #79 & #80.

bracketville.wordpress.com

Dave’s Bracket

This is where you will find my bracket projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication, the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands. Bra…
bracketville.wordpress.com bracketville.wordpress.com

bracketville.wordpress.com

Seed List

Below are two tables that display the current Seed List (at the time of publication) – a tool used for my bracket projects and by the actual Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket…
bracketville.wordpress.com bracketville.wordpress.com
 
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After the 'Nova game, I thought for sure that, if we could win out and win the BET, we'd easily get a 7-seed or better. Heck, I thought a 3-seed was possible in that scenario. However, between then and now, we have won all our games and seen teams ahead of us lose, but many bracketologists think we still need to jump 10+ teams to reach the 7-seed level. I still think 5 more wins, including @Seton Hall and neutral Villanova and Creighton victories, will get us there, but I am much less certain than I was a couple weeks ago.
 
.-.
Hi-Low said:
The #1 Bracketologist over the past 5 years has Uconn as a 10 seed and team #38 overall...just updated today.

Interesting note: has St. John's & Providence at the very edge of his "teams out" bubble at #79 & #80.

bracketville.wordpress.com

Dave’s Bracket

This is where you will find my bracket projections for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. At the time of publication, the bracket reflects an overview of where the NCAA landscape currently stands. Bra…
bracketville.wordpress.com bracketville.wordpress.com

bracketville.wordpress.com

Seed List

Below are two tables that display the current Seed List (at the time of publication) – a tool used for my bracket projects and by the actual Selection Committee to seed teams into the bracket…
bracketville.wordpress.com bracketville.wordpress.com
Expand ...
Judging off of his list, I would think that by beating seton hall and then beating creighton getting to the 7 line is certainly feasible and a 6 not out of the question.
 
Get a Job said:
After the 'Nova game, I thought for sure that, if we could win out and win the BET, we'd easily get a 7-seed or better. Heck, I thought a 3-seed was possible in that scenario. However, between then and now, we have won all our games and seen teams ahead of us lose, but many bracketologists think we still need to jump 10+ teams to reach the 7-seed level. I still think 5 more wins, including @Seton Hall and neutral Villanova and Creighton victories, will get us there, but I am much less certain than I was a couple weeks ago.
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If we won out and beat both Creighton and Nova, we'd get between a 4 and 6. Pretty confident on that.

The reason we haven't been jumping is lack of Q1 wins. We'd get 3 in that stretch. Our profile would have very few holes and our profile with just Bouk would be even stronger.
 
Get a Job said:
This post is the first time I ever understood you to be making this statement. If you were saying it before, you either communicated poorly, or I read poorly. It seems that the others in this conversation are in the same boat as me, so I tend to think @auror is on the right track: You have finally realized your argument is indefensible, and you're scrambling.
Expand ...

If a bunch of teams only play 3 non-conference games next season, I will admit I was wrong, apologize to the whole board and never post here again. Will you do the same if the P6 conferences play their normal 9+ game non-conference schedule?
 
nelsonmuntz said:
If a bunch of teams only play 3 non-conference games next season, I will admit I was wrong, apologize to the whole board and never post here again. Will you do the same if the P6 conferences play their normal 9+ game non-conference schedule?
Expand ...

Keep digging.

What orifice did you pull this logic out of? We're talking about adding (or subtracting) games voluntarily. Do try to keep up...
 
NelsonMeme.jpg
 
nelsonmuntz said:
If a bunch of teams only play 3 non-conference games next season, I will admit I was wrong, apologize to the whole board and never post here again. Will you do the same if the P6 conferences play their normal 9+ game non-conference schedule?
Expand ...
It's amazing how you just continuously create fake arguments that people are making. Not one person has suggested teams should schedule 3 out of conference games per season. At this point you're just being obtuse and it has to be intentional, there's no other explanation
 
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