Big Bubble Night Discussion

[Dooooooomed]

Now time to root for Arizona over Oregon.

 

[Ricker]

The bracketology this year is a popularity contest rather than a meritocracy. At the end of each year I like to go back to the preseason top 25 projections and informally see how accurate they were. This year the preseason top 25 has been self perpetuating the charade that is the Big 10. Rutgers should be fighting to get in. We should be a 5-7 seed if we sweep to the BE finals. It seems that will actually get us to the 8-9 game with Big 10 teams in the 5-7 slots with double digit losses? How can they defend brackets like that with a straight face?

 

[tzznandrew]

Rutgers down 30 now. LOL.

I'm genuinely interested as to why Rutgers is a lock in most people's eyes. A home win against Illinois and a few wins against bubble teams?

 

[superjohn]

The bracketology this year is a popularity contest rather than a meritocracy. At the end of each year I like to go back to the preseason top 25 projections and informally see how accurate they were. This year the preseason top 25 has been self perpetuating the charade that is the Big 10. Rutgers should be fighting to get in. We should be a 5-7 seed if we sweep to the BE finals. It seems that will actually get us to the 8-9 game with Big 10 teams in the 5-7 slots with double digit losses? How can they defend brackets like that with a straight face?

If we sweep to the Big East finals we're definitely higher than 8-9.

 

[Marat]

Now time to root for Arizona over Oregon.

I really dislike that Oregon home court.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

I'm genuinely interested as to why Rutgers is a lock in most people's eyes. A home win against Illinois and a few wins against bubble teams?

Two words rhymes with “wallet tea bosses”

 

[Dooooooomed]

I really dislike that Oregon home court.

Ya, and I don't know how visiting teams stay in bounds.

 

[Ricker]

If we sweep to the Big East finals we're definitely higher than 8-9.

Last night John Fanta opined that we wouldn't be higher than an 8 even if we we won the BE tournament. I think that's crazy, but that is even coming from a knowledgeable UConn advocate. I heard that elsewhere channel flipping, so I wouldn't be so fast to say that just reaching the final 'definitely' makes us a better seed than 8. Keep in mind my own opinion is that we should be a 6 winning this week and being a finalist, and maybe even a 5 if we win and other 5's and 6's struggle.

 

[Palatine]

Last night John Fanta opined that we wouldn't be higher than an 8 even if we we won the BE tournament. I think that's crazy, but that is even coming from a knowledgeable UConn advocate. I heard that elsewhere channel flipping, so I wouldn't be so fast to say that just reaching the final 'definitely' makes us a better seed than 8. Keep in mind my own opinion is that we should be a 6 winning this week and being a finalist, and maybe even a 5 if we win and other 5's and 6's struggle.

That's only true if you know what all the other schools will do in the same time period. And -in reality- no one does.

 

[tzznandrew]

Last night John Fanta opined that we wouldn't be higher than an 8 even if we we won the BE tournament. I think that's crazy, but that is even coming from a knowledgeable UConn advocate. I heard that elsewhere channel flipping, so I wouldn't be so fast to say that just reaching the final 'definitely' makes us a better seed than 8. Keep in mind my own opinion is that we should be a 6 winning this week and being a finalist, and maybe even a 5 if we win and other 5's and 6's struggle.

I may be crazy, but I do think people are looking at the UConn team and the BE in general in a vacuum and that just looking around a bit you have to imagine a hypothetical 3rd place BE team that won the BET and whose record is shaped by 8 games without it's all american candidate would do much better than an 8 seed. Again, in that scenario they'd have beaten Creighton and Villanova at neutral sites. That's minimally a 6 seed to me, and probably a 4/5. Again, when you compare it to other resumes, they're full of holes too, and often more glaring ones.

This assumes we beat Seton Hall and Georgetown. If they don't all bets are off.

 

[nadav]

The same Fanta calling the Red Storm ladies tonight? He might not be totally dialed in.

 

[Storrs South]

All in all a solid night for the Huskies benefit with UNC, St. Bonaventure, Richmond all losing plus Rutgers getting smacked back to likely the 8 v. 9 game to boot.

Tuesday brings a really good slate of the following games for Bubble Watch:

Boise State (NET 35) v. Fresno State at 7 on CBSSN

• Fresno is bad. Win does nothing, a loss this time of year would be impactful to say the least

Xavier (NET 48) v. Georgetown at 7 on FS1

• Xavier must replicate the effort the Huskies gave last week (no not the 1st half) to keep their NCAA hopes in play

Indiana (NET 57) v. Michigan State (NET 77) at 8 on BTN

• Bubble game of the night? Two teams desperately looking for wins. Winner gets a really good win to possibly push them into Last Four In. Loser is running out of chances to make that case.

Duke (NET 59) v. Georgia Tech (NET 40) at 8 on ACCN

• Everything for Indiana/MSU is applicable here.

Memphis (NET 60) v. USF at 9 on ESPNU

• The Tigers aren't exactly on the bubble, but if a lot of things went their way and made a deep run in the AAC there could be an opening. It's an outside shot and for those that miss AAC basketball have at it.

That window from 8-10 is going to have a March Madness feel between the Xavier, IU, MSU, Duke, and GT tourney hopes all hanging in the balance and going on concurrently.

 

[auror]

I'm genuinely interested as to why Rutgers is a lock in most people's eyes. A home win against Illinois and a few wins against bubble teams?

They were top 30 in KenPom for most of the season (as high as 18th). After their 5 loss streak people were putting them out, but they righted the ship with the easier part of their schedule. A 20 point loss to a bad team has once again pushed them back to shakier ground.

 

[MU in MKE]

Last night John Fanta opined that we wouldn't be higher than an 8 even if we we won the BE tournament. I think that's crazy, but that is even coming from a knowledgeable UConn advocate. I heard that elsewhere channel flipping, so I wouldn't be so fast to say that just reaching the final 'definitely' makes us a better seed than 8. Keep in mind my own opinion is that we should be a 6 winning this week and being a finalist, and maybe even a 5 if we win and other 5's and 6's struggle.

Keep in mind though that right now UConn only has two wins against tournament caliber teams. The neutral site against USC and at Xavier. Even with the handicap of not having Bouknight, the resume is light on signature wins. Do they pass the eye test when he's playing? Yes. But at the end of the day it's the results on paper that matter most. Just keep winning, things will work themselves out.

 

[Ant3411]

If UHart wins their conference tourney (currently in the semifinals) does that count as a win against a tourney caliber team? lol....kinda serious kinda joking here...

 

[Storrs South]

Keep in mind though that right now UConn only has two wins against tournament caliber teams. The neutral site against USC and at Xavier. Even with the handicap of not having Bouknight, the resume is light on signature wins. Do they pass the eye test when he's playing? Yes. But at the end of the day it's the results on paper that matter most. Just keep winning, things will work themselves out.

That's true of every team on the bubble. You can only play who's on the schedule. All the A10 & MWC schools sitting in the same spot have the same number of quality wins if not less. Any of the ACC / B10 schools in the area either have the same number of quality wins or 1-2 more plus a bad loss.

In UConn's case they have only played a total of 6 games against NCAA Tournament teams this season (Nova, Creighton x2, Seton Hall, Xavier, USC). They've gone 2-4 in those games and Bouknight didn't play in half those games. Probably win at least one more with him.

If they keep winning it will work itself out, but they are better than the Colorado States, St. Bonaventures, and Drakes of the world on the bubble with them.

 

[tzznandrew]

That's true of every team on the bubble. You can only play who's on the schedule. All the A10 & MWC schools sitting in the same spot have the same number of quality wins if not less. Any of the ACC / B10 schools in the area either have the same number of quality wins or 1-2 more plus a bad loss.

In UConn's case they have only played a total of 6 games against NCAA Tournament teams this season (Nova, Creighton x2, Seton Hall, Xavier, USC). They've gone 2-4 in those games and Bouknight didn't play in half those games. Probably win at least one more with him.

If they keep winning it will work itself out, but they are better than the Colorado States, St. Bonaventures, and Drakes of the world on the bubble with them.

Right, that's the thing. People are looking at UConn's resume relative to maybe one team at a time, and maybe you can nitpick here or there. But when you compare it to the bubble as a whole, it's one of the better bubble resumes. Especially since you have to consider the effect of not having Bouknight.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Xavier is a half away from losing their bid.

 

[ucawn]

Xavier is a half away from losing their bid.

Same with Boise.

 

[auror]

Xavier is a half away from losing their bid.

Good thing they beat Creighton so they stay Q1 for us.

 

[Dooooooomed]

Boise loses. I heard a pop.

 

[elmcityboy]

some ghastly stuff at the end of this georgetown-xavier game... x is gonna lose

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Xavier really self-destructed at the end. Xavier's last 3 possessions ended with a player stepping out of bounds, a missed layup, and getting rejected by the bottom of the backboard.

 

[navery12]

Xavier's bubble hasn't popped yet, but it's getting awfully close

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Good thing they beat Creighton so they stay Q1 for us.

Great point. The Selection Committee only cares about numbers, the fact that UConn only has 1 win over a Tournament team won't hurt our seedings at all.

BTW, if UConn loses to Seton Hall, you will have been proven catastrophically wrong about UConn's NCAA strategy. I can't remember the last time a poster's credibility was as all in on one game as yours is.