Big Bubble Night Discussion | Page 5 | The Boneyard

Big Bubble Night Discussion

nelsonmuntz said:
If UConn does not get in the Tournament, the lack of games will be a factor. Marquette is adding games, why isn't UConn?
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Most of the metrics are per possession (all the predictive advanced stats) or per game schedule-based (all the strength of record stats and WAB). The NET is a combo of the two so doesn't factor raw games in at all. As mentioned, Colgate has only played 12 games total and is inexplicably in the top 13 of NET.

The obsession with quadrants is the one area that playing more games may help, assuming you're playing good teams and winning. But we don't know for sure that the committee actually obsesses over the quadrants like all the horse race bracketologists and "experts" do.
 
Good morning. I know a lot of us have been focusing on Lunardi, but as someone else pointed out, he usually grades out middle of the pack in bracketology. Jerry Palm of CBS, who I BELIEVE has done a better job than him in the past (I'm sure someone has that info) has us as a 9 seed in his bracket he released this morning. He had us a 9 seed before the weekend, so we didn't move. As a matter of fact, he has us as the first 9 seed, meaning he has 10 teams in back of us for at large bids. 10.

For context here are his last 4 in:

St. Louis
North Carolina
Colorado
Indiana

Last 4 out:

Seton Hall
Minnesota
VCU
Stanford

Also 31 in ESPN BPI, 36 in KenPom. Both 3rd in the Big East.
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navery12 said:
Because Marquette is 6-10 and has 0 chance of getting in the NCAA tournament or ever coming anywhere close to the bubble. It's not even an OK comparison let alone good
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Plus they had 10 days in between their last game and playing UConn. If we had that kind of break, I might consider playing someone. But we don't.
 
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BFieldHusky said:
Good morning. I know a lot of us have been focusing on Lunardi, but as someone else pointed out, he usually grades out middle of the pack in bracketology. Jerry Palm of CBS, who I BELIEVE has done a better job than him in the past (I'm sure someone has that info) has us as a 9 seed in his bracket he released this morning. He had us a 9 seed before the weekend, so we didn't move. As a matter of fact, he has us as the first 9 seed, meaning he has 10 teams in back of us for at large bids. 10.
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Lunardi (#55) has a better record than Palm(#85) over last 5 years according to "The Bracket Project" but neither is great.

Brad Evans is a recognizable name ranked much higher (#20) and he has UConn in with last bye & has 4 teams behind us.
He does a quick analysis of each team and seems to put some thought in his bracket....love his take on L'ville
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I went through a lot of bracket predictors:
Most have S Hall & Xavier ahead of UConn but grouped pretty close together.
Most have UConn just in by a couple spots or just out by 1 or 2 spots

That Seton Hall game could be a play-in game but imo the BE should get 5 teams. It will depend how we and others finish obviously but would think 3-1 should do it.
 
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The lack of Quad 1/Quad 2 wins is concerning. Shame that UConn couldn't get second games with Nova, St. John's, and Xavier.

If UConn doesn't beat Seton Hall, they'll need to go 3-0 against Gtown x2 and Marquette PLUS win a second round game in the BET. Just my two cents. Who really knows? UConn absolutely passes the eye test, but I've heard the committee referencing *the number of * Q1, Q2 wins in recent years.
 
navery12 said:
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time weapons GIF
 
This likely shrinks the bubble by 1 and moves Stanford into a much safer spot

 
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Tiamat7 said:
The lack of Quad 1/Quad 2 wins is concerning. Shame that UConn couldn't get second games with Nova, St. John's, and Xavier.

If UConn doesn't beat Seton Hall, they'll need to go 3-0 against Gtown x2 and Marquette PLUS win a second round game in the BET. Just my two cents. Who really knows? UConn absolutely passes the eye test, but I've heard the committee referencing *the number of * Q1, Q2 wins in recent years.
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We know we have a Quad 2 opportunity tomorrow night. We will have a Quad 1 opportunity next week @Seton Hall. I would guess Marquette and GTown at home will be Q3 opportunities. Then we will have the BET.

I will counter our lack of wins (Q1/Q2) with the fact that we are 5-3 on neutral/road courts, and we have no bad losses according to the resume. That also counts for something.

Let's focus on beating an improved GTown team on the road tomorrow night. One game at a time.
 
BFieldHusky said:
We know we have a Quad 2 opportunity tomorrow night. We will have a Quad 1 opportunity next week @Seton Hall. I would guess Marquette and GTown at home will be Q3 opportunities. Then we will have the BET.

I will counter our lack of wins (Q1/Q2) with the fact that we are 5-3 on neutral/road courts, and we have no bad losses according to the resume. That also counts for something.

Let's focus on beating an improved GTown team on the road tomorrow night. One game at a time.
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If they do what they're supposed the rest of the regular season and go into the BET at 14-6 they're going to be fine. Well above the cut line. And they'd be a 3 or 4 seed probably at that point in the BET. And the nice thing about the BE as opposed to the AAC is that if you happen to lose to the 5 or 6 seed you're playing against in the first round it doesn't destroy your resume if you're on the bubble.

They do really have to beat Georgetown at home and Marquette though. But if they can't do that they really don't deserve the NCAAs anyway without a deep BET run. They might be able to get away with a road loss to Georgetown or Seton Hall, but definitely shouldn't push it.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
If UConn does not get in the Tournament, the lack of games will be a factor. Marquette is adding games, why isn't UConn?
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Because we don’t have room on the schedule. Also we don’t need any more games than we have. Win the rest and we’re in.
 
ucawn said:
Because we don’t have room on the schedule. Also we don’t need any more games than we have. Win the rest and we’re in.
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This isn't hard. Maybe—maybe!—Hurley would want a game on Thursday after a game on Tuesday and before a game on Saturday. I'm skeptical he would, especially this late in the season. But then to pair it with a team that also has that Thursday free on short notice. I'm not sure it's worth it. Just win.

And I'm on the side of "we should have played more games." It's just that in practicality that ship has sailed.
 
navery12 said:
This likely shrinks the bubble by 1 and moves Stanford into a much safer spot

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87Xfer said:
That's pretty crazy. Nothing in reality actually changed.
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It is kind of a mind F, but, after reading the details, it seems fair. Stanford was forced to play "home" games at the Warriors' facility, 40 miles away from their real home venue. Had these games remained on the books as home games, that would have been unfair to Stanford, in my opinion.
 
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Drake now missing their top scorer and rebounder (ShanQuan Hemphill) and now their starting point guard who's arguably the best PG in the MVC (5.5/2.3 A/TO). Penn is also their #2 scorer.

Will make the Friday & Saturday matchup against Bradley much, much harder. Plus, an interesting game to check the line.
 
Hey Adrien! said:


Drake now missing their top scorer and rebounder (ShanQuan Hemphill) and now their starting point guard who's arguably the best PG in the MVC (5.5/2.3 A/TO). Penn is also their #2 scorer.

Will make the Friday & Saturday matchup against Bradley much, much harder. Plus, an interesting game to check the line.
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That's unfortunate for them. Drake, St. Bonaventure, Colorado St. all on the bubble can't lose another game or they are basically done.
 
Oregon @ USC coming up on FS1 at 9....relevant for UConn on 2 fronts. We want our best win in USC to keep winning and Oregon a bubble team in some brackets is not a tourney lock.

Go Trojans!
 
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Honestly if we don’t sweep Georgetown, beat Marquette, and beat Seton Hall we don’t deserve to be in the tournament.

This team has had a lot of chances to win games.
 
CTBasketball said:
Honestly if we don’t sweep Georgetown, beat Marquette, and beat Seton Hall we don’t deserve to be in the tournament.

This team has had a lot of chances to win games.
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4-0 is a big ask but possible, 3-1 should do it though. The other bubble teams have flaws and missed opportunities as well.
 
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navery12 said:
Because Marquette is 6-10 and has 0 chance of getting in the NCAA tournament or ever coming anywhere close to the bubble. It's not even an OK comparison let alone good
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So your argument is that because Marquette is not getting into the Tournament and UConn is, Marquette should play more games and UConn less?

Logic is not your strong suit.
 
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