Big Bubble Night Discussion

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Exactly. St. John's is now 69 on KenPom. Again, we are holding steady at 35. We were at 36 morning. That should tell people about today.
ESPN BPI will update in the morning. But let's remember these numbers (before today's games were played).

UConn (28)
Seton Hall (36)
St. Johns (65)
Indiana (31)
Minnesota (58)
Stanford (59)
 
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I think if season ended today UConn and Xavier would get in. UConn might be final 4 in, but still.
Yeah, I was thinking we’d be in and Xavier out, but you’re right could be 4. Seton Hall could still get in but they’ll need some wins in the BET
 

UcannUconn

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Duke wants to know if there's some opposite of a major player injury consideration where if a guy opts-out you only get credit for the games he misses.
Booger was right they do look better without him and this will absolutely hurt his draft stock.
 
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ESPN BPI will update in the morning. But let's remember these numbers (before today's games were played).

UConn (28)
Seton Hall (36)
St. Johns (65)
Indiana (31)
Minnesota (58)
Stanford (59)
Good morning. Ended the day at 34 at KenPom. Amore said we started there before the game (I thought we were 36) but either way no damage done.

BPI numbers this morning:

UConn (30)
(was 28)
Seton Hall (38) (was 36)
St. John's (70) (was 65)
Indiana (36) (was 31)
Minnesota (67) was (58)
Stanford (65) was 59)

KenPom numbers this morning:

UConn 34
Seton Hall 38
St. John's 69
Indiana 32
Minnesota 50
Stanford 61
 
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For those looking to keep an eye on the bubble today (2/21):
  • St Bonaventure (KenPom 49) plays Davidson at 3:30 on NBCSN
  • Maryland (KenPom 33) plays Rutgers at 3 on BTN
  • Evansville plays Drake (KenPom 46) at 4 on ESPN+
  • Xavier (KenPom 59) plays Butler at 7 on CBSSN
 
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Lunardi has us the 2nd team out so we only fell 1 spot on his board (for what it's worth). How he has Minn & Stanford ahead of us is baffling to me but whatever.

St Bonaventure probably moves ahead us on his board if they beat Davidson today.
MD, Drake & Xavier will fall a bit if they lose to today....(games noted by Storrs South in post prior)
Duke & Cuse are the last 2 of his Bubble Teams (#7 & #8 on the outside)....big game between them Monday night.

Lunardi's 16 Bubble Teams all very close so needless to say every game in next 2 weeks is huge.
 
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87Xfer

'cause...it's coming
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from TeamRankings.com today

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For those looking to keep an eye on the bubble today (2/21):
  • St Bonaventure (KenPom 49) plays Davidson at 3:30 on NBCSN
  • Maryland (KenPom 33) plays Rutgers at 3 on BTN
  • Evansville plays Drake (KenPom 46) at 4 on ESPN+
  • Xavier (KenPom 59) plays Butler at 7 on CBSSN
Looks like wins across the board for the bubble teams in the first three games today. Additionally another bubble team (Western Kentucky) setup a non conference game @ Houston for this week that could give them another quality W. I know Hurley said we’re done scheduling games but I’d love to get another good non-conference game in Gampel. Good bubble teams want to play games and we could use some more non-conference activity too
 

tzznandrew

Is This Your King?!
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Looks like wins across the board for the bubble teams in the first three games today. Additionally another bubble team (Western Kentucky) setup a non conference game @ Houston for this week that could give them another quality W. I know Hurley said we’re done scheduling games but I’d love to get another good non-conference game in Gampel. Good bubble teams want to play games and we could use some more non-conference activity too
It's good in theory. Do we play Saturday-Monday-Wednesday? Almost certainly not. So it's not possible when you look at our actual schedule.

Barring a team having to go into Covid protocol.
 
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It's good in theory. Do we play Saturday-Monday-Wednesday? Almost certainly not. So it's not possible when you look at our actual schedule.

Barring a team having to go into Covid protocol.
They could play a home game this Thursday if they really wanted to. A bunch of Big Ten schools are doing three game weeks right now because they want to complete the schedule.
 
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They could play a home game this Thursday if they really wanted to. A bunch of Big Ten schools are doing three game weeks right now because they want to complete the schedule.
I would say this depends on how the staff really feels about our NCAA tourney chances with the 4 games we have remaining. If we schedule a Quad 1 or 2 home game and lose, that could be detrimental to our tournament chances, unless we schedule a Baylor, Gonzaga, Michigan type which is obviously unlikely.
 
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I would say this depends on how the staff really feels about our NCAA tourney chances with the 4 games we have remaining. If we schedule a Quad 1 or 2 home game and lose, that could be detrimental to our tournament chances, unless we schedule a Baylor, Gonzaga, Michigan type which is obviously unlikely.
I think it's clear this is how the staff feels, they tried to schedule Villanova and when that fell through they didn't try to schedule anyone else. And I think that's the right choice, as long as we take care of who's on our schedule we're a lock for the tournament with the current games
 
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I think it's clear this is how the staff feels, they tried to schedule Villanova and when that fell through they didn't try to schedule anyone else. And I think that's the right choice, as long as we take care of who's on our schedule we're a lock for the tournament with the current games
I agree. No need to panic. winning at Gtown on the road is going to look good on the resume now too, they've been playing better and as we know Hall just lost there.
 
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Here's a summary of some bubble teams and who they play this week. Overall, some clear games with rooting interest:

Big East:
  • Seton Hall: Butler on Wednesday
  • St. John’s: Villanova on Tuesday
Other Power 5s:
  • North Carolina: Marquette on Wednesday, Florida State on Saturday
  • Syracuse: Duke Monday, Georgia Tech Saturday
  • Minnesota: Northwestern on Thursday, Nebraska on Saturday
  • Indiana: Rutgers on Wednesday, Saturday play Michigan
  • Maryland: Michigan State on Sunday
  • Stanford: Oregon on Thursday, Oregon State on Saturday
  • Ole Miss: Missouri on Tuesday, Vanderbilt on Saturday
AAC:
SMU/Wichita State: They play each other Thursday and Sunday. Root for a split.

MVC:
Drake: Evansville Monday, Bradley Friday and Saturday

MWC:

  • Utah State: Nevada Friday and Sunday
  • Colorado State: Air Force Saturday and following Monday (both very likely wins, so I assume Colorado State will get an at-large bid)
A-10:
  • St. Bonaventure: Davidson on Wednesday, Friday George Washington, Dayton on Sunday
  • VCU - Saint Louis on Tuesday, Davidson on Saturday.
  • Saint Louis - VCU on Tuesday, Richmond on Friday, UMass on Sunday
  • Richmond - UMass on Tuesday, Saint Louis on Friday.
 
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Syracuse-Duke tomorrow is pretty huge. Duke has a harder remaining schedule. Hard to say if we want to just try to eliminate one or stay ahead of both.
 
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If UConn does not get in the Tournament, the lack of games will be a factor. Marquette is adding games, why isn't UConn?
Most of the metrics are per possession (all the predictive advanced stats) or per game schedule-based (all the strength of record stats and WAB). The NET is a combo of the two so doesn't factor raw games in at all. As mentioned, Colgate has only played 12 games total and is inexplicably in the top 13 of NET.

The obsession with quadrants is the one area that playing more games may help, assuming you're playing good teams and winning. But we don't know for sure that the committee actually obsesses over the quadrants like all the horse race bracketologists and "experts" do.
 
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Good morning. I know a lot of us have been focusing on Lunardi, but as someone else pointed out, he usually grades out middle of the pack in bracketology. Jerry Palm of CBS, who I BELIEVE has done a better job than him in the past (I'm sure someone has that info) has us as a 9 seed in his bracket he released this morning. He had us a 9 seed before the weekend, so we didn't move. As a matter of fact, he has us as the first 9 seed, meaning he has 10 teams in back of us for at large bids. 10.

For context here are his last 4 in:

St. Louis
North Carolina
Colorado
Indiana

Last 4 out:

Seton Hall
Minnesota
VCU
Stanford

Also 31 in ESPN BPI, 36 in KenPom. Both 3rd in the Big East.
 
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