Big Bubble Night Discussion | Page 2 | The Boneyard

Big Bubble Night Discussion

HuskyHawk said:
The seeding is going to wild. With these uneven schedules and very limited out of conference play they have less information to go on than they ever have. Aside from the clear 1 & 2, I don't think anybody stands out.
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CBS: We almost never see teams one or two wins above .500 receive at-large inclusion, but given how you're tracking the sport now, do you think it's reasonable to forecast there could be teams right near .500 that wind up making the field?

MB: Hard for me to speculate on that. As I said Saturday [on CBS], there's 1,000 games left and almost all those will be conference games. There are leagues that chose to spend more of their games in-conference this year -- and some were totally in-conference. For the leagues that have traditionally been multi-bid leagues, their résumé will primarily be their conference games, and they may be 10-8, 11-11 or 10-10. That could be a factor where we're having to evaluate those teams that's close to .500 and again, it goes back to a little bit about who you beat, where'd you beat them, opportunities for quality wins and did you take advantage? Those are all important details. The ability to look at common opponents and if there's head-to-heads -- there might be some -- but we lost a lot of nonconference opportunities and that's certainly going to factor into the smaller résumés to the committee. I don't want to get into how that might play out in real time, but I certainly think it will have an impact in our ability to evaluate teams across the board.

CBS: How is the committee grappling with this inevitability of vastly different game totals at the end of the season? One team might wind up having nine or 10 more results than another under consideration in a similar spot. Is that an advantage or disadvantage?

MB: I don't know that there is a real clear answer on that. It is new territory and clearly every committee member is going to have to look at it through the prism with which they see it. We've had conversations about how difficult that's going to be. Take Saint Louis for example. They've got a high-quality win over LSU out of conference. Then all of a sudden they're put in a position where they've not played many conference games and been put on pause, or someone else's put them on pause in their schedule. Minnesota has played a pretty full schedule of 21 games, struggling to win on the road, what does that mean to their total résumé as it relates to teams that haven't had the opportunity to go on the road? Those are great conversations. No one will be penalized for being on pause. Sometimes it just doesn't work and we'll do the best we can at trying to find a way to across the span of games to try and find some commonalities and some things that give you a chance to measure one against the other. And ultimately find the 37 at-larges that give you the best field.

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We have to sweep Georgetown and beat Marquette at home. All three are must wins. Seton Hall is likely a must win. It can't be discounted that we will probably have one more game scheduled because we have an opening. If we win 4 out of 5 or 6 I think we are in safely even if we are one and done in the BET.
 
shizzle787 said:
We have to sweep Georgetown and beat Marquette at home. All three are must wins. Seton Hall is likely a must win. It can't be discounted that we will probably have one more game scheduled because we have an opening. If we win 4 out of 5 or 6 I think we are in safely even if we are one and done in the BET.
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Hurley said that since we couldn’t get Nova for 2/25, we won’t be making up any other games.

I agree that for more wins should put us in, and I feel confident we will get at least that many.
 
ToolzieFan said:
I agree that four more wins should put us in, and I feel confident we will get at least that many.
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yeah i think 4 is the magic number. gtown twice, marquette, and our first game in the BE tourney against SJU are must wins (assuming 3 more conference wins gets us to the 4 or 5 seed against SJU)

anything less and i'll be sweating on selection sunday, but i think we'll beat Hall too giving us an outside shot at the 3 seed
 
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RayRay said:
My biggest concern, and I’m surprised no one is talking about this, is that zero players on our roster have March madness experience. I truly believe that having a couple guys on the roster with March madness experience would go a long way in making a deep run, or even getting out of opening weekend due to the nerves.
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Add to that a Head Coach who hasn't yet been to the second weekend, except as a player.

But note that KFree, Talik, and Tom Moore have 4 rings between them, and all via UConn.

Still, keep the focus on one game at a time.
 
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Hans Sprungfeld said:
Add to that a Head Coach who hasn't yet been to the second weekend, except as a player.

But note that KFree, Talik, and Tom Moore have 4 rings between among them, and all via UConn.

Still, keep the focus on one game at a time.
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I've given up correcting people, since it makes me look like a richard, but I have the feeling you appreciate it. So FIFY
 
We should have played some local schools between mid January and mid February when we had some big breaks. 3 more wins would look great on our resume right now. I think we are still in good shape to get in, but our seed could suck.
 
RayRay said:
My biggest concern, and I’m surprised no one is talking about this, is that zero players on our roster have March madness experience. I truly believe that having a couple guys on the roster with March madness experience would go a long way in making a deep run, or even getting out of opening weekend due to the nerves.
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Overrated. We have ballers.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
We should have played some local schools between mid January and mid February when we had some big breaks. 3 more wins would look great on our resume right now. I think we are still in good shape to get in, but our seed could suck.
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If it means we're a 10 or 11 vs. 8 or 9 sign because the lack of games played I'm so down for it
 
nelsonmuntz said:
We should have played some local schools between mid January and mid February when we had some big breaks. 3 more wins would look great on our resume right now. I think we are still in good shape to get in, but our seed could suck.
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we might have also performed better in the games we lost coming off break if we had played during them.
 
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RayRay said:


Lunardi has us in first four out again as of this morning.
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Jerry Palm on CBS has updated bracket this morning with UConn as a 9 seed so opinions vary. No doubt we need wins.

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Palm also has Seton Hall as first team out, makes sense to me, the best wins they have are Xavier & UConn and nothing OOC. The USC win & Xavier OK win are big.

I don't understand Lunardi's rationale to have Xavier & Seton Hall in the field but UConn as first team out. We have a better resume than both imo but pretty close....should all be in really unless fumbles.

Depending on the outcome of Nova game that @ Seton Hall game could become a play-in type game.
 
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Hi-Low said:
Jerry Palm on CBS has an updated bracket this morning with UConn as a 9 seed so opinions vary. No doubt we need wins though.

Palm also has Seton Hall as first team out, which makes sense to me, the best wins they have are Xavier & UConn.
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Right, I don’t believe Lunardi is gospel, but from what I’ve gathered, he modeled his bracketology after what he thinks the committee would do. Who knows, like you said, there’s several others that have us a 9 or 10 seed. We just need to beat Nova and take care of business the last 4 games and we will be fine.
 
Hi-Low said:
Jerry Palm on CBS has an updated bracket this morning with UConn as a 9 seed so opinions vary. No doubt we need wins.

Palm also has Seton Hall as first team out, which makes sense to me, the best wins they have are Xavier & UConn and nothing OOC.

I don't understand Lunardi's rationale to have Xavier & Seton Hall in the field but UConn as first team out. We have a better resume than both imo.

Depending on the outcome of Nova game that @ Seton Hall game could almost be a play-in game.
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Interesting thing is on Palm, if I am reading his S-Curve right, he has in by about 15 teams. I am trying to use the 12/13 line as the cut off for automatic qualifiers.
 
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We MUST beat Georgetown twice and Marquette. A win against either Seton Hall or Villanova would the seal the deal. If we lost those two, I suspect we'd need to win 1 if not 2 BET games.
 
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How on earth is North Carolina in "Last Four Byes" category? They have seven losses, including a loss against Georgia Tech and NC State. The only good win they have is against Stanford, who is the last team in the field.
 
GetTheFacts said:
How on earth is North Carolina in "Last Four Byes" category? They have seven losses, including a loss against Georgia Tech and NC State. The only good win they have is against Stanford, who is the last team in the field.
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Yeah some of his choices are odd....all I can think of is he's giving UNC "credit" for playing & losing to TX & Iowa and ACC slightly better than BE. Otherwise our win vs USC is better than UNC over Stanford. Our KenPom is 36 to UNC 42
 
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Get a Job said:
I've given up correcting people, since it makes me look like a richard, but I have the feeling you appreciate it. So FIFY
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Thanks. I checked it out in genuine curiosity and came away educated.

As a further recognition, when I gut-check my intake and register no upset in being alerted to content errors, I am (toward certain posters) thereafter emboldened to humble brag that I make mistakes, don't mind admitting to them, and don't object to having them noted & corrected.. . which of course is far more dickish, though only to a limited and sometimes more deserving audience.
 
We just don’t have enough quality wins right now essentially because we haven’t played enough games. I think most people assume we’re going to win @ Georgetown (myself included) but right now that would be our 4th best win in the eyes of the committee and only our 4th Q1/Q2 win. If we take care of business down the stretch and boost our resume on the BET we’ll be more than fine.
 
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4xChamps said:
We just don’t have enough quality wins right now essentially because we haven’t played enough games. I think most people assume we’re going to win @ Georgetown (myself included) but right now that would be our 4th best win in the eyes of the committee and only our 4th Q1/Q2 win. If we take care of business down the stretch and boost our resume on the BET we’ll be more than fine.
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If we beat Nova we’re in
 
ucawn said:



I hope we won’t need much help to get in, but this certainly helps.
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Yeah, A-10 and the MWC both very good mid-major conferences...the only difference is the MWC has four teams that have established themselves as the top of the conference.

On the other hand, the A-10 has totally gone haywire: Saint Louis and Richmond were supposed to be elite mid-majors, VCU was supposed to have a rebuilding year. Really Saint Bonaventure is the only team going to plan: a very underrated team teetering in and out of the bubble. Doubtful it'll happen, but there's a real chance A-10 will just be a one-bid league despite being top-to-bottom, the 8th best conference in the nation.
 
Watching Indiana right now against a really bad MSU team and they look like a team we would beat by 15-20 points easily. I think most of the Big 10 is overhyped, but of course Lunardi has Indiana in and us out in his current Bracketology
 
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