If Houston is left out, I suspect that they and SMU both petition to join the MWC. Navy falls back to independent. Temple goes to the A-10 for hoops/Olympics and joins UConn with Independent football. Wichita might have to consider pleading with the MVC to be readmitted. The AAC essentially turns back into C-USA and ends up with a MAC/C-USA esque TV deal at around $5-10M, not per team, but for the full-conference. (Memphis will carry some value as will some of the markets they'll still have in Tampa and New Orleans, if Houston stuck around they might keep the conference deal closer to MWC value)
The leftover AAC would look something like: Tulsa, Tulane, Memphis, USF, ECU filling back in with schools like UAB, Rice, Georgia State, Charlotte.
UConn would add potential late season dates with Navy & Temple on the Independent schedule in a recurring basis.