Big 12 Doomsday Scenariosl

[itgoeslike]

I think the destruction of the Big12 is overblown.

I'm not sure if OU wants out (a lot of their fans appear to want that) or if they are posturing to force expansion. The Big 12 does make more than the ACC. Their TV deal is richer (and not front/even loaded), their post season bowls are richer, and their tier 2 and tier 3 deals are richer. The separation between the Big 12 and ACC is going to become more pronounced in the next two to three years. There could be some in the Big12 that feel doing nothing may free up a couple of ACC schools eventually, while for others, doing nothing for three years is an even bigger risk. It really boils down to what the top earners want to to do. As long as the Texas/ESPN deal is in place, Texas is making as much or more than anyone in the country. The rub for OU is that without a equitable TV network they're earning potential is capped and will witness Nebraska eventually earning significantly more.

 

[junglehusky]

The PAC wouldn't expand. I think they are the most stable conference in the sense they will remain static at 12 members.

I think the destruction of the Big12 is overblown.

I think Oklahoma will be added to the B1G due to the Tier 1 deal as opposed to B1G Network purposes. Then it's a matter of can they add a UVA, UNC (still doubt they leave the ACC) or a Kansas, VT (I think would go) and then we would be the 5th option to get to 16.

Say the Big12 loses OU and KU, I'm still not sure how much of a catalyst that is for Texas to do anything. They'd still run the league, have their LHN and can schedule anyone in America for football.

The "doomsday" for UConn is OU, KU going to the B1G and the Big12 expanding with 4 to get to 12 and it's Cincinnati, UCF, Memphis, USF.

If the Big 12 does implode, I do fear that the Big Ten and even the ACC lock up spots. If the PAC or SEC pick up top schools, that would benefit UConn.

Hmmm. Yes, I agree that whether the Pac12 decides to add schools or stay where it is could be a pivot point with ripple effects that would impact UConn's chances. The fact that Texas's leadership has changed and the LHN is not doing too well might open the possibility of Texas going to the West coast, but for all we know they might still prefer the ACC or maybe they'll decide to play ball with B1G. Maybe CHB is right and they'd keep their own island of misfit toys. Then they'd replace OU/UK and go to 12 with 4 adds, which could benefit UConn's chances of getting invited. But by then the BXII would be AAC 2.0 + Texas.

If the B12 self destructs, and you throw the B12+AAC+MWC schools in a pot, I'd be cautiously optimistic that UConn would be in the group of "desirables" (Big publics with markets, established brands, success) along with Texas, OU, KU, UCF (mostly for market and school size), & BYU at the top of the pool. In this scenario, the schools that are rumored to be on the B12's list (Memphis, Houston, Cincy) due to recent football success (in Houston's case, just spending $$$ / hiring Herman / recruiting) are neutralized since they duplicate markets already in the B1G/ACC/SEC, though they might still find spots. Of course, UConn's position would be greatly improved if the Pac adds 2-4 out of the "desirables" while leaving a partner for us to go to the ACC or B1G.

 

[CallMeBruce]

Hmmm. Yes, I agree that whether the Pac12 decides to add schools or stay where it is could be a pivot point with ripple effects that would impact UConn's chances. The fact that Texas's leadership has changed and the LHN is not doing too well might open the possibility of Texas going to the West coast, but for all we know they might still prefer the ACC or maybe they'll decide to play ball with B1G. Maybe CHB is right and they'd keep their own island of misfit toys. Then they'd replace OU/UK and go to 12 with 4 adds, which could benefit UConn's chances of getting invited. But by then the BXII would be AAC 2.0 + Texas.

But that's the thing. Texas may be a league-making brand. It's like how the Big East might have survived if Notre Dame had committed (and/or if Penn State had been admitted in the 80s).

 

[itgoeslike]

Potential scenarios could support:

TEXAS - ACC, PAC, B1G, SEC, IND
OU - SEC, PAC, B1G
KANSAS - B1G, SEC
OKST - SEC, PAC
KSTATE - SEC, AAC, MW
WVU - ACC, SEC, AAC
BAYLOR - ACC, AAC, MW, PAC
TCU - ACC, AAC, MW, PAC
TT - MW, PAC
IOWA ST - AAC

 

[MilliniumPrince]

Sorry the destruct model of the Big12 is our worse nightmare
The guys who are moaning "things can't get worse" must have very limited real life experience.
Things can always get worse and Big 12 destruction is and example ,it puts better programs than us in a contracting open market ,increasing the odds of a soft landing dramically.
Our best hope is that the current P5 expands, any other wish than that is nihilistic trill seeking.

Agreed

 

[UConnDan97]

I can't see Oklahoma going somewhere other than where Texas goes. I can't see Oklahoma State going somewhere other than where Oklahoma goes (due to state political pressure). The rest is up in the air...

 

[Afroabe224]

View attachment 10100

Agreed

Love the meme (that made my morning)!

As far as the big 12 though, I say we double down on CR and hope for an implosion. Can it really get worse than playing bball games @ Tulane/Tulsa/ECU??

 

[itgoeslike]

View attachment 10100

Agreed

In UConn's case, you could argue we got screwed and then stuck as well as getting stuck and then screwed. . .

 

[DarthGrumpy]

I'm not sure if OU wants out (a lot of their fans appear to want that) or if they are posturing to force expansion. The Big 12 does make more than the ACC. Their TV deal is richer (and not front/even loaded), their post season bowls are richer, and their tier 2 and tier 3 deals are richer. The separation between the Big 12 and ACC is going to become more pronounced in the next two to three years. There could be some in the Big12 that feel doing nothing may free up a couple of ACC schools eventually, while for others, doing nothing for three years is an even bigger risk. It really boils down to what the top earners want to to do. As long as the Texas/ESPN deal is in place, Texas is making as much or more than anyone in the country. The rub for OU is that without a equitable TV network they're earning potential is capped and will witness Nebraska eventually earning significantly more.

There is money and also the apparent fact that an 1 loss XII team with no conference championship title under its belt ends up outside of the football playoffs due to 1 loss conference championship teams from the B1G, PAC, and SEC and an undefeated conference championship from the ACC. Heck, a 1 loss ND team also without a conference championship may also be able to slip by a 1 loss XII team based on strength of schedule and 'other' factors.

 

[itgoeslike]

I can't see Oklahoma going somewhere other than where Texas goes. I can't see Oklahoma State going somewhere other than where Oklahoma goes (due to state political pressure). The rest is up in the air...

There could be a remote scenario where implosion is imminent and "discussions" take place that an OU move to the B1G (perhaps with Texas and Kansas) would be contingent upon the SEC absorbing OKST (perhaps with Kansas State and Texas Tech). Of course, it would have to be in the interest of all parties.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

 

[itgoeslike]

There is money and also the apparent fact that an 1 loss XII team with no conference championship title under its belt ends up outside of the football playoffs due to 1 loss conference championship teams from the B1G, PAC, and SEC and an undefeated conference championship from the ACC. Heck, a 1 loss ND team also without a conference championship may also be able to slip by a 1 loss XII team based on strength of schedule and 'other' factors.

At the end of the season, the Big 12 had two teams ranked in the top 6 (I think). A victory by either team over a top 6 opponent would have likely put the victor into the playoffs.

 

[CallMeBruce]

At the end of the season, the Big 12 had two teams ranked in the top 6 (I think). A victory by either team over a top 6 opponent would have likely put the victor into the playoffs.

By RPI, TCU was #5 and Baylor was #7, so yeah, I think both of those schools were an eyelash away from the playoff. It's entirely possible that, if they had been able to play a CCG against each other, that the winner gets in.

 

[itgoeslike]

By RPI, TCU was #5 and Baylor was #7, so yeah, I think both of those schools were an eyelash away from the playoff. It's entirely possible that, if they had been able to play a CCG against each other, that the winner gets in.

And there's no question that the Big Ten benefitted from their championship game. . .

 

[UConnTrumbull]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

For me it's option 1 as well. That is actually one heck of a football conference. Probably better than the Big East for football at the time of its demise. Nothing will match what Big East basketball was but that's long gone and never to be replicated.

 

[junglehusky]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

If that league had some kind of guarantee that it would not lose any members, and there wasn't a danger of the money going away (over the long term hard to know that given cable cutting) then yes.

Things that would make that arrangement more palatable:

• CFP expansion to 6, 8 or more teams for non-P4 access.
  
• More playoff $$$ distributed to the merged conference
• ESPN contract rather than Fox - better exposure. (ESPN stopping the loss of subscribers would help here)
  
• If the "leftovers" include one or more of Kansas, OU, Texas, BYU - marquee brands.
• Still being able to schedule P4 OOC games, rather than all of them shutting out non-P4

 

[Point6]

I think the B12 picks up UCF, USF, ECU, Tulsa, Tulane, Temple, Cincy, SMU, Houston, Memphis and Navy (for FB only) and survives.

 

[don356]

Yes, they can call it the AAC 12.

 

[Kolumbo]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

or

Stay status quo with the say 5% chance of B1G and maybe 15% chance ACC.

I think I take the Big12 scenario everyday. Gets some decent football, basketball is fine as long as we have KO and we improve $.

That would be a fine football conference, perhaps better than the ACC. Therefore none of those Big 12 programs would ever agree to being locked out of the P4.

 

[jostar1]

Random hypothetical:

Would you take a guaranteed new league with leftover Big12 - i.e. Baylor, TCU, K-State, WVU, Texas Tech plus the best of AAC/MWC/BYU, but be locked out of P4 forever, have similar prestige as the Old Big East, enough $ to get by, but be locked from ACC or B1G forever...

That's the acceptance stage of grief.

 

[DarthGrumpy]

At the end of the season, the Big 12 had two teams ranked in the top 6 (I think). A victory by either team over a top 6 opponent would have likely put the victor into the playoffs.

Last season, the perceived weakest team was Florida St, which was the defending national champ, undefeated, and they won their Conference Championship. No way they were being left out. A 1 loss, conference champion SEC can't be left out either because 'everyone' knows the SEC is the most powerful college football conference in history, cough, cough. Ditto for a 1 loss conference champion from the B1G, which may not be the best football conference right now; but, is the most influential conference with a lot of history on their side. TCU had 1 loss to Baylor; but only 2 marquee wins over Texas and Oklahoma, who both had off seasons. Baylor lost to WVU and ditto for marquee wins as TCU. Oregon lost to a decent Arizona team (call it even with Baylor's loss to WVU); but also beat Michigan St (2 losses, beats Baylor), UCLA (3 losses) and wins its conference champion. Have to give it to Oregon.

I can also see this continuing going forward, too. Without a conference champion, teams from the XII have to 1) go undefeated, 2) get good seasons from the big 2 (Texas & Oklahoma), 3) some in the upper tier (Baylor, TCU, OK St, WVU) to make noise and 4) schedule serious non-conference games in order to make-up for the lack of a conference title game (Baylor - SMU, N'western St, Buffalo; TCU - Samford, SMU; OK - Tenn good, LA Tech & Tulsa, not good; Texas - was OK in 2014 w/ 2 good games w/ BYU & UCLA mixed with N Texas). Otherwise, they are going to be on the outside looking in.

 

[whaler11]

All the Big 12 needed last year to make the playoff was for Georgia Tech to score 3 more points in the ACC championship.

There are four spots and they picked the teams with the four best resumes. Any one of about a dozen games going a different way and the Big 12 has a team in the playoffs.

 

[amory]

The only consolation as a UConn fan is eventually the majority of this country is just going to stop giving a crap.

It's no fun anymore.

 

[pepband99]

All the Big 12 needed last year to make the playoff was for Georgia Tech to score 3 more points in the ACC championship.

There are four spots and they picked the teams with the four best resumes. Any one of about a dozen games going a different way and the Big 12 has a team in the playoffs.

Indeed. Most of the whining was around the difference between the prior week and final playoff rankings, ie how TCU/Baylor got "jumped". All noise.

 

[itgoeslike]

All the Big 12 needed last year to make the playoff was for Georgia Tech to score 3 more points in the ACC championship.

There are four spots and they picked the teams with the four best resumes. Any one of about a dozen games going a different way and the Big 12 has a team in the playoffs.

If Baylor chalked up a win against TCU or TCU a win against Baylor that would improve the resume, especially against an OSU or FSU loss.

 

[itgoeslike]

The only consolation as a UConn fan is eventually the majority of this country is just going to stop giving a crap.

It's no fun anymore.

CR has ruined it for many, including for some fans in p5 conferences. I no longer visit ESPN.com. I watch a lot less ESPN. The reality is that I don't have time (or desire) to watch a bunch of different sports events outside of UConn and major events (says the guy with a 1,000 posts). I currently get everything when it comes to sports, but I'm seriously considering cutting the cord and getting my entertainment via my a combination of my smart HDTV's, sling, chromecast, roku, hulu, etc. My daughter doesn't watch cable, all she needs is a wifi connection for (too many) hours of entertainment. My wife is stuck to her iPad when she is not watching the news or Netflix. Aside from sports, we don't need to watch anything when it airs. We DVR most everything. I even watch half my sports on delay due to conflicts. I would gladly pay $50/month for complete UConn sports access. Heck, I was paying $10/month for a handful of UConn hockey and baseball games. Now I'm just rambling. . .

 

[Exit 4]

CR has ruined it for many, including for some fans in p5 conferences. I no longer visit ESPN.com. I watch a lot less ESPN.

I agree with the start of your ramble. ICR has ruined my college sports fun. I watch more NHL now and never watch ESPN because of their role in CR. I also find ESPN to be so full of itself its absurd (never giving credit to other media outlets, never permitting their people to visit other media outlets, etc).

In my office, CR has done zero to enhance interest. All those apathetic non p5 grads have become even more lost watching college sports after the disintegration of the BigEast. Yes, the BigEast was a mess, but in the NYC area, with its mix of catholic, state schools and whatever, it kept people interested. Now this area is suppose to just watch Rutty and Syracuse or adopt an SEC team to have fun. Guess what, neither is happening. Instead we are finding other things to do.

 

[itgoeslike]

I agree with the start of your ramble. ICR has ruined my college sports fun. I watch more NHL now and never watch ESPN because of their role in CR. I also find ESPN to be so full of itself its absurd (never giving credit to other media outlets, never permitting their people to visit other media outlets, etc).

In my office, CR has done zero to enhance interest. All those apathetic non p5 grads have become even more lost watching college sports after the disintegration of the BigEast. Yes, the BigEast was a mess, but in the NYC area, with its mix of catholic, state schools and whatever, it kept people interested. Now this area is suppose to just watch Rutty and Syracuse or adopt an SEC team to have fun. Guess what, neither is happening. Instead we are finding other things to do.

Doing without and ultimately not missing it is the fire that ESPN is playing with.*

*ESPN you know what to do to reverse this. Get it done.

 

[sportsart]

In 50 years collegiate sports may not exist at all. There's no way to know.

College football CR has to be still going in 50 years.

Fishy needs college funds
for his great grand children.

 

[OkaForPrez]

@itgoeslike cut 6 months ago, don't miss anything. I watch a lot of soccer on Spanish tv over the air, use sling for ESPN, and Netflix most of my non sports content. I will miss red zone in the fall, but that's why you have friends.