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Big 12, ACC and perhaps some flawed strategy

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nelsonmuntz said:
Reverting to Fishy's initial point, I think the ACC has actually made Louisville the MOST expensive school.

Maryland is going to beat the exit fees in my opinion, and it won't be close. FSU has a very good case too. The other schools are not necessarily stuck either. There are certain common law and statutory that are not waived simply by a vote, particularly if the conditions of the vote are in question, which I believe they were. I do think that the longer the schools stay in the ACC, the harder it is to challenge the exit fee.
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Once Maryland beats the exit fee, the conditions under which every school who agreed to the buyout will have changed.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
Reverting to Fishy's initial point, I think the ACC has actually made Louisville the MOST expensive school.

I was talking to some folks about the realignment situation while tailgating today, and in thinking about this situation more, now I think that Maryland and Florida State will beat the exit fees if they challenge them. Courts take a very dim view of corporations or associations arbitrarily imposing penalties or changing the terms of selling shareholders after those shareholders have already purchased that stock. Leaning on the Amendments Clause to do something as significant as this is a very weak argument for the ACC to make. In particular, making the increased exit fee effective immediately could throw the entire exit fee out. I can not think of an example I have ever seen where a private association or private company EVER tried something like this successfully. Anyone who has ever been involved in a recapitalization knows what I am talking about. You need to have notice provisions and effective periods for even minor changes to shareholders' rights.

Maryland is going to beat the exit fees in my opinion, and it won't be close. FSU has a very good case too. The other schools are not necessarily stuck either. There are certain common law and statutory that are not waived simply by a vote, particularly if the conditions of the vote are in question, which I believe they were. I do think that the longer the schools stay in the ACC, the harder it is to challenge the exit fee.

Every ACC school but one has a reasonable basis for challenging the exit fee. Louisville will have no real basis for challenging the exit fee. Louisville will enter a conference with full knowledge of the terms and conditions of their membership in advance.

To Fishy's point, Louisville just became the MOST EXPENSIVE school for the Big 12 to add.
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I don't totally agree. Louisville's expense to the ACC is similar to what TCU's was to the BE. It's still less expensive than the programs already in play!

I do agree with Fishy and upstater. This is a strategic move by FSU! Even though Louisville is not the most expensive ACC team in play it is now much more expensive to the B12 than it was only a week ago.

My feeling is FSU is making a power play but doesn't have everything in it's control. HuskyHawk is correct they could have gone to the B12 at the time WV was taken. I can't imagine it was the B12 not wanting them. The B12 probably offered FSU at that time and FSU chose to opt out with a smart reply saying they don't have the votes yet to leave but that's changing so call us later.

The ACC is FSU's bitch in football but not in politics. My gut tells me that FSU is attempting to change two things. First it is trying to become the head honcho on decision making in the ACC. Second FSU is trying to get ESPN to renegotiate. FSU prefers to stay in the ACC vs. the B12, but things have to change. The cave in by tobacco road came as a result of Maryland leaving. The idea of the ACC imploding was a fear two weeks ago. Now it is a reality that can only be stopped by FSU not leaving. No one in the ACC believes ND will be their white night. It was an ESPN move to weaken the BE.

The move by Maryland is similar to Texas AM's move from the B12 last season. The B12's entire survival depended on what Texas chose to do and had to wait while Texas explored its options. In the end the survival of the B12 was the result of the PAC not caving into Texas and vice versa. The ACC is now in the same position. It has to wait and see how FSU wants to go. And FSU is waiting to see how the B!G and the SEC approach things. So while they are waiting it was prudent to take in Ville and reduce options for the B12.

upstater has stated that Ville and UConn were pawns in the ACC power struggle. I agree with him. And the way things have developed demonstrates tobacco road is no longer the power base. Their relevancy is similar to the BE bb schools.
 
fleudslipcon said:
The ACC is FSU's bitch in football but not in politics. My gut tells me that FSU is attempting to change two things. First it is trying to become the head honcho on decision making in the ACC. Second FSU is trying to get ESPN to renegotiate. FSU prefers to stay in the ACC vs. the B12, but things have to change. The cave in by tobacco road came as a result of Maryland leaving. The idea of the ACC imploding was a fear two weeks ago. Now it is a reality that can only be stopped by FSU not leaving. No one in the ACC believes ND will be their white night. It was an ESPN move to weaken the BE.

The move by Maryland is similar to Texas AM's move from the B12 last season. The B12's entire survival depended on what Texas chose to do and had to wait while Texas explored its options. In the end the survival of the B12 was the result of the PAC not caving into Texas and vice versa. The ACC is now in the same position. It has to wait and see how FSU wants to go. And FSU is waiting to see how the B!G and the SEC approach things.

upstater has stated that Ville and UConn were pawns in the ACC power struggle. I agree with him. And the way things have developed demonstrates tobacco road is no longer the power base. Their relevancy is similar to the BE bb schools.
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This is the major factor behind all the moves.

Did anyone here notice that ESPN has a huge incentive to only want ONE team to join the ACC instead of two?

The background to this is the football TIER 3 rights as opposed to the basketball rights. ESPN with the current contract has a very valuable asset. FSU wants ESPN to pony up that asset. The basketball schools totally antagonized FSU one year ago when they added Pitt and Cuse. It was the addition of Pitt and Cuse that sunk the league inasmuch as it was bundled with the wholesale surrender of tier 3 rights in football. We have to face the fact that, 1., the basketball schools screwed FSU over, that FSU is taking its revenge now (Louisville is irrelevant here), and that ESPN has an incentive to hold that conference together as it is currently constituted and under the current contract.
 
upstater said:
This is the major factor behind all the moves.

Did anyone here notice that ESPN has a huge incentive to only want ONE team to join the ACC instead of two?

The background to this is the football TIER 3 rights as opposed to the basketball rights. ESPN with the current contract has a very valuable asset. FSU wants ESPN to pony up that asset. The basketball schools totally antagonized FSU one year ago when they added Pitt and Cuse. It was the addition of Pitt and Cuse that sunk the league inasmuch as it was bundled with the wholesale surrender of tier 3 rights in football. We have to face the fact that, 1., the basketball schools screwed FSU over, that FSU is taking its revenge now (Louisville is irrelevant here), and that ESPN has an incentive to hold that conference together as it is currently constituted and under the current contract.
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Exactly. This has now become FSU vs. ESPN and FSU vs tobacco road. FSU believes it can get into the Big12 anytime. But that is FSU's second choice. It prefers the ACC. So FSU got tobacco road to cave in with the Ville vs. UConn decision. They didn't really care for Ville more than UConn although there were strategic values to the move. They wanted to stick it to tobacco road and it's snobbishness. Now it will remain to be seen how ESPN reacts. If ESPN holds fast, expect FSU to go to the B12. Of course the B!G could really mess up FSU's plans. If this is a power play by FSU as you and I suspect, and if tobacco road gets angry enough with FSU, they can opt out of the ACC and go to the B!G. Virginia and UNC hold this card over FSU. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
 
Geography is the pawn: the BiG left itself several options should it go to 16.

The BiG didn't strike at the heart of Dixie but close enough: If the SEC strikes and the Big 12 and they start to carve up the ACC turkey then the BiG is poised ready to increase its presence in the Mid Atlantic whether that's UVA or UNC or others. Or they can move North toward BC, SU, Pitt or UConn.

Either way the SEC and BiG win with a very strong 16 team football conference which resembles a regional footprint with 2 divisions.
 
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RS9999X said:
Geography is the pawn: the BiG left itself several options should it go to 16.

The BiG didn't strike at the heart of Dixie but close enough: If the SEC strikes and the Big 12 and they start to carve up the ACC turkey then the BiG is poised ready to increase its presence in the Mid Atlantic whether that's UVA or UNC or others. Or they can move North toward BC, SU, Pitt or UConn.

Either way the SEC and BiG win with a very strong 16 team football conference which resembles a regional footprint with 2 divisions.
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I think the Big 12 is the safety play for FSU and Clemson. They are leaders football wise in the ACC. They don't want to be to become afterthoughts in the Big12. If they can get ESPN to change the contract and if FSU, with toady Clemson, control decisions in the ACC, they will stay in the ACC. As of this moment the B12 has little influence with events in the ACC.

The players that do have an influence are ESPN, the SEC and the B!G. ND could have an influence but we all know they won't. So ESPN can stop everything if they renegotiate their contract. I doubt they'll do this. They've decided to put their money into the bowls. It's a change with their strategy. If they can get conferences cheap they make a play. Otherwise they won't battle Fox or NBC. Smart move on their part given that conferences are controlling their own destiny with their own networks. That is the future in fifteen years.

The conferences want their share of the media pie and the three conferences with the greatest control of their destiny are the PAC, SEC and B!G. The PAC isn't going east, so the next moves into the ACC are the SEC and the BIG. Delany has started the ball moving. He has gotten the attention of the SEC and the jewels of the ACC not named FSU and Clemson.
 
As was mentioned above, if Louisville wanted to renounce the ACC today and go elsewhere... 0% chance they pay the full $50 mil. They would follow the TCU model and pay a nominal fee. They aren't even a member of the ACC yet.

As an aside- of all the realignment threads... This isn't one of them. Some really good reasoning in this one.
 
I don't think adding Louisville was as strategic as some make it out to be. I also think the ACc plans on adding UConn if it survives.

As far as power goes, FSU will always be second fiddle to UNC and UVa. There is not a major conference that would take FSU before UNC or UVa. In fact, the Big 10 and SEC will probably never take FSU.
 
Vuce said:
That is true Waq. If this was about hoops then we are in somewhere in the first go around. But given that this is about good ole boy football, we are looked at much differently. Uconn has been better in football than anyone could have imagined - remember, when we moved up there were tons of people saying it would take 15 to 20 years to get really competitive. We have more than held our own against our peers in this conference. Still, the perception is one we can't change unless we keep winning.
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Vuce, we held our own in this conference, but who was in this conference? The last time we played VT we lost by 40, and Terry Caulley was crippled. This conference was very weak, and everyone wanted out. And got out. In any other conference we would not have held our own.
 
nelsonmuntz said:
I don't think adding Louisville was as strategic as some make it out to be. I also think the ACc plans on adding UConn if it survives.

As far as power goes, FSU will always be second fiddle to UNC and UVa. There is not a major conference that would take FSU before UNC or UVa. In fact, the Big 10 and SEC will probably never take FSU.
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I agree that the SEC and the B!G find UNC and UVA more attractive to their expansion plans than FSU or Clemson. But if football is running the ship and the $$$ for that ship than the loss of FSU and Clemson will have a much more significant blow to the ACC than the loss of UVA or UNC.
 
I personally believe that the ACC adding Louisville benefited FSU far more than anyone else (and likely played a major role in FSU demanding UL over UConn).

Beyond the public embarrassment of losing FSU after appeasing them, giving the ACC even more incentive to want them to remain, the field of candidates for an expanded B-12 has been slightly reduced (specifically, one candidate is now in a home more difficult to pry from). FSU just became more important and valuable to both the ACC & the B-12.
 
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FfldCntyFan said:
I personally believe that the ACC adding Louisville benefited FSU far more than anyone else (and likely played a major role in FSU demanding UL over UConn).

Beyond the public embarrassment of losing FSU after appeasing them, giving the ACC even more incentive to want them to remain, the field of candidates for an expanded B-12 has been slightly reduced (specifically, one candidate is now in a home more difficult to pry from). FSU just became more important and valuable to both the ACC & the B-12.
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That happened when MD surprised everyone in the ACC and left for the B!G. The ACC can only survive as a power conference if FSU stays in the ACC. FSU is now in a similar position with regards to the ACC as Texas is to the B12.

Tobacco road and FSU both would prefer staying in the ACC and keeping it relevant. They just disagree on how to go about this. That disagreement has been going on for some time. It came to a head with Md leaving. There are two things necessary to stabilize the ACC - a significant improvement with the ESPN contract. And a mending of relations between FSU and tobacco road.
 
CTMike said:
As was mentioned above, if Louisville wanted to renounce the ACC today and go elsewhere... 0% chance they pay the full $50 mil. They would follow the TCU model and pay a nominal fee. They aren't even a member of the ACC yet.

As an aside- of all the realignment threads... This isn't one of them. Some really good reasoning in this one.
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Hey Mike, I'm pretty sure that TCU is paying the full 5 million:

http://collegebasketballtalk.nbcspo...ion-to-settle-conference-realignment-lawsuit/

Unless something happened after the lawsuit settlement that I didn't hear about, they actually settled it up for the full amount...
 
ZooCougar said:
Once FSU and company see how much more cash they can make elsewhere, they are gone, gone, gone. The Louisville thing is about them getting their way, that won't be enough for them long term.
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You know, because these schools had no idea what anyone else has been making the last several years. They don't have the Internet or talk to people or watch ESPN, etc...
 
Jericho said:
You know, because these schools had no idea what anyone else has been making the last several years. They don't have the Internet or talk to people or watch ESPN, etc...
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I think you're missing on what happened with the new ESPN deal last summer. The tier 3 rights of football were given away, while the tier 3 rights for basketball were kept by the schools. In other words, this is a whole new world for the ACC football schools. Things just changed for them less than a year ago.
 
Jericho said:
You know, because these schools had no idea what anyone else has been making the last several years. They don't have the Internet or talk to people or watch ESPN, etc...
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Their contract is too long term. The disparity will get bigger and bigger over the years. that disparity is TBD.
 
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gars44 said:
Vuce, we held our own in this conference, but who was in this conference? The last time we played VT we lost by 40, and Terry Caulley was crippled. This conference was very weak, and everyone wanted out. And got out. In any other conference we would not have held our own.
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We've done well enough against the middle of the pack/lower teams in the big leagues (and ND) to feel like we could've been competitive. Of course, we wouldn't have been a BCS Bowl team anywhere else, but we've always either won or hung in there when playing our strategically-selected power conference schools (good, but not great - plus Duke), with probably more blowouts in our favor than against us. The South Carolina bowl game was an excellent statement for uss - USCe wasn't an SEC contender, but coventional wisdom was that they were going to show us how the big boys play football, and we shut them out.

The last time we played VT was ugly, but it was really ugly when we played WV for the BE title the first time, and then we beat them on the way to the Fiesta. ND this year would have been ugly, but it wasn't three years ago.

Sent from my BlackBerry 9930 using Tapatalk
 
fleudslipcon said:
They didn't have to wait 27 months an pay a premium to avoid it like WV.
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True, but the money was the same. And I think that the Big East likely felt that the extra money gained in a lawsuit was either not worth the trouble or perhaps not enforceable due to the fact that they didn't ever play a game in the league. But the monetary payment still stood at the full 5 million, so for the purposes of this discussion, the precedent is there...
 
Guess I'm not good at fact checking from a beach in Mexico. :) hehe. I thought TCU got off light- may be mixing it up with what fleudslipcon was saying.
 
fleudslipcon said:
That happened when MD surprised everyone in the ACC and left for the B!G. The ACC can only survive as a power conference if FSU stays in the ACC. FSU is now in a similar position with regards to the ACC as Texas is to the B12.

Tobacco road and FSU both would prefer staying in the ACC and keeping it relevant. They just disagree on how to go about this. That disagreement has been going on for some time. It came to a head with Md leaving. There are two things necessary to stabilize the ACC - a significant improvement with the ESPN contract. And a mending of relations between FSU and tobacco road.
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The same can be said of about all ACC schools.

I think at the end of the day, Louisville was added because their team running the program was better than our team. It is that simple. Had nothing to do with football or basketball or anything else. When it is remotely close, people matter, and we have dumb and dumber leading our university and athletic program.

This is all about money for FSU, UNC and UVa. They might eat $3MM or even $5MM a year to stay in the ACC. Unlikely, but possible. they are not taking a $10MM+ a year haircut to stay in the ACC. Either ESPN steps up, or anyone that can get out will get out.
 
CTMike said:
Guess I'm not good at fact checking from a beach in Mexico. :) hehe. I thought TCU got off light- may be mixing it up with what fleudslipcon was saying.
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If you are going to insist on spending your honeymoon drinking in the sun and getting nooky in the dark, then you are doing the Boneyard a great disservice, my friend. Smart.....but a disservice...:p
 
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This could be the week to tell the tale for the ACC. This could be a very exciting week for college football.

While Florida State has had the luxury to slow-play the B12, since it is obvious that only FSU sufficiently moves the television meter for the B12 at the #11 slot, nevertheless I'm not sure that slow-playing the B12 is FSU's primary gameplan right now.

Personally, I think everyone is waiting to see what move Delany and the B1G make. Speculation is rampant that the B1G is moving to (at least) 16, and Delany sure isn't issuing any denials to squelch the rumors. If, in fact, Georgia Tech, or Virginia, or both, follow Maryland to the B1G, as most rumors suggest, then I think it is fairly reasonable to conclude that the ACC schools being targeted by the SEC will also make final decisions in the very near future. In this scenario, the SEC targets would probably be VPI, and one of UNC or NCSU.

If the B1G does move on the ACC again, causing the SEC to follow suit, and if FSU is not a part of their plans, then FSU will default to its third option -- the B12. Louisville may have been Florida State's addition, but in the end it will be the B1G that determines if the remaining ACC schools remain intact.

If the B1G raids the ACC again for one or two major schools, then I see the ACC losing the entire top half of the conference, including North Carolina, the ACC bell-cow. How can it be otherwise when the ACC contract is so disadvantageous and so many other schools would have defected?

While I have no doubt Florida State and North Carolina want to make things "work" in the ACC, the problem is money. The ACC television contract is just so deficient. How ironic would it be if FSU and UNC remained conference members, but in a different conference, and making significantly more money?

What I find particularly fascinating, given my B12 allegiance, via Texas, is Guy Jones' prediction for the outcome of the B12: Connecticut, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and San Diego State. If that lineup panned out for the B12, it would make for one helluva league, if far-flung. I realize the B12 would not exactly thrill most adherents of this board, but don't shoot the messenger (Guy Jones).

Anyhow, as I say, this could be the single most important week for college realignment since Oklahoma/Georgia vs. NCAA was decided in 1984. It's been a long time coming, too. We'll see soon enough now.
 
XOVERX said:
What I find particularly fascinating, given my B12 allegiance, via Texas, is Guy Jones' prediction for the outcome of the B12: Connecticut, Florida State, North Carolina, Duke, Clemson, and San Diego State. If that lineup panned out for the B12, it would make for one helluva league, if far-flung.
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Thank you for this post XOVERX. This board was getting boring in the last 24 hours. Uconn to the ACC - booooring, Uconn to the Big Ten - overdone....Uconn to the Big 12? Let's start a new thread! HFD - please oblige.....
 
XOVERX said:
I realize the B12 would not exactly thrill most adherents of this board, but don't shoot the messenger (Guy Jones).
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You are not the first person to cite him--somehow all across the internet. It's funny to me, and it reminds me why I shouldn't take anything posted on Twitter seriously knowing his history. I give all the credit to him for actually finding people to listen to him.
 
upstater said:
I think you're missing on what happened with the new ESPN deal last summer. The tier 3 rights of football were given away, while the tier 3 rights for basketball were kept by the schools. In other words, this is a whole new world for the ACC football schools. Things just changed for them less than a year ago.
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I don't think anything you said is correct. For one, the ACC deal dates back several years, not last summer. They simply renegotiated different rates after adding Syracuse and Pitt. But the basic deal remains. Second, I believe the ACC gave up all Tier 3 tv rights. Not just football. Third, the money for those third tier rights is not particularly high. You're talking about one football game (usually against a 1-AA opponent) and a handful of the worst basketball games. What's that worth? Maybe $1.5 million in a best case scenario. The Tier 3 stuff won't be the deal breaker.
 
ZooCougar said:
Their contract is too long term. The disparity will get bigger and bigger over the years. that disparity is TBD.
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With the Big 10, yes. The Big 10 has an uncertain revenue stream due to their own network. That's where the conference is really raking in the big bucks. Unfortunately, there's nothing that suggest the Big 10 wants FSU. The Big 12 has no network, nor any plans to start one (and are limited if they tried)
 
Jericho said:
I don't think anything you said is correct. For one, the ACC deal dates back several years, not last summer. They simply renegotiated different rates after adding Syracuse and Pitt. But the basic deal remains. Second, I believe the ACC gave up all Tier 3 tv rights. Not just football. Third, the money for those third tier rights is not particularly high. You're talking about one football game (usually against a 1-AA opponent) and a handful of the worst basketball games. What's that worth? Maybe $1.5 million in a best case scenario. The Tier 3 stuff won't be the deal breaker.
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There is so much wrong with your post, I don't know where to start.

The deal was redone, they gave up 3rd tier rights for football, but not for basketball. FSU became infuriated. The board of trustees openly blasted the deal in public.
 
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