Best Guess to the near term outcome

[06029]

Based on my reading of the tea leaves with the simplest and most cost effective solution, and probably not too different than the one under discussion between the BE, MWC and C-USA -

The Big East Football conference will dissolve effective the 2012 season with every team paying the conference football exit fee (full fee for Pitt, Cuse and WVU as they are also leaving the BB conference).

Remaining 5 BE FB members combine with the MWC (7 remaining teams) and Conf USA (12 teams) to form a 24 team football coalition consisting of 4 divisions of 6 teams with either UCF or ECU added to BE teams and 1 MWC replacing that team in the CUSA division. 5 games in division, 2 out. The third and eighth conference game based on standing in division versus same cross division every year (home field alternates annually between the divisions so scheduling is not an issue, you just don't know who the opponent is - could be the same team twice in 1 year). Winners of the two #1 seed games advance to conference championship with winner getting BCS bid.

All FB teams remain BB/Olympic sports members in their current conferences with 1 team form C-USA joining the BE and 1 from C-USA joining the MWC (leaves CUSA with 10 BB programs, MWC with 8 and BE with 14).

The FB league will have a reasonable withdrawal requirement/fee and the original conferences can keep the BB contracts intact.

Benefits - expands pool of BCS autobids to 19 more teams including Boise State. Keeps ND in the BE for their Olympic sports. Substantially cools down the expansion band wagon. With reasonable exit notice/fees for FB schools, they can move if the 16 team super conference becomes the model and the left over schools can still have the auto bid. ND can keep believing they are special. The TV contract for this FB mega conference should be competitive given its wide geographic reach. Can build regional rivalries with division formats. Could potentially get 2 BCS bids if say an undefeated BSU loses to ECU in the championship game. Even revenue split among all schools.

Weaknesses - It is a mish-mash of misfit toys. Conference will always have to be proving itself. With large size, you get to play some of these teams once every 6 years. Mis-balanced divisions potentially. BB TV contracts for the BB/Olympic sports may be smaller since so much is allocated to football.

Just an opinion about a most reasonable and effective solution for the short term. The long term solution, that is for smarter people than me.

 

[IthacaMatt]

This seems like a reasonable plan, and by including a really big pool of schools in competition for a BCS berth, that keeps the anti-trust police at bay. This makes a lot of sense.

 

[zls44]

Can we call it the coalition of the willing?

Why would the big east voluntarily dissolve? Just add whomever and keep the auto bid for two more years.

 

[Vuce]

I say ND won't want to be in same conference as the "new" members after Pitt, Cuse and WVU leave. They choose to join ACC and Uconn or Rutgers goes with them.

 

[06029]

Can we call it the coalition of the willing?

Why would the big east voluntarily dissolve? Just add whomever and keep the auto bid for two more years.

MWC needs one school starting next year. The BE can not afford to have its BCS rep for the next 3 rounds of the BCS be a school that is leaving the conference. Sometimes, ending things quickly makes sense.

It is BE FB conference that will dissolve, not the BE conference as a whole. The BE already has two conferences, by getting rid of the FB part of it, you take the BB only influence out of the equation. You get rid of the BB veto of some schools they find unacceptable. Adding whomever might not save the autobid. You need people that would help ensure the autobid. Boise is the only school being mentioned that does that.

My thought is what has the least impact on the left behinds in the second tier conferences for all sports other than FB because we can all acknowledge that sending soccer teams from CT/NJ to Colorado, TX and Idaho to play every other year and vice versa is not an acceptable option. If FB is driving the bus, then come up with a football solution that addresses what the reality is today as well as one that could adapt to the 16 team super conference model in the future.

This plan should keep the balance of the BE BB/ND happy and that helps keep it a top tier BB league.

 

[06029]

I say ND won't want to be in same conference as the "new" members after Pitt, Cuse and WVU leave. They choose to join ACC and Uconn or Rutgers goes with them.

Why not? The still have Uconn. They still Nova, Gtown and St Johns. They still have DePaul for their Chicago alums. And they get to keep their "special" FB identity and TV contract. If that is what is most important to ND, then this gives them what they want/need without a lot of of squirming and stress. That, and with Pitt, Cuse and WVU gone, they move into a 3/4 slot in the BE for men's BB and they keep the strongest teams in the league for the other olympic sports (WBB, soccer, baseball, field hockey, etc.).

And if they choose to move in the future, there is nothing in this proposal that would prohibit Uconn from joining them. Unless Uconn still holds some notion of loyalty to Providence and the BB schools.

 

[SubbaBub]

24 teams is way too many even as a consortium. There would be too many weak programs.

Set aside BE FB as its own thing as see if you can draw at least 8 quality programs in a FB only arrangement. The BE has the bid. Any alliance needs to be built around that.

If they can't, then the "commissioner" of this mess will need to organize the divisions and control the schedule in order to produce the best match ups. I don't see two cross division conference playoff games elevating these teams to BCS standards.

Sent from my MB860 using Tapatalk

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I put the merged CUSA/MWC/Big East at about 5% chance of happening. There is no reason for the top programs in those three leagues to affiliate themselves with UAB, Tulane, Wyoming, Rice and the like.

 

[RS9999X]

Traditionally one conference cosolidates the strongest members.

West: Hawaii. Nevade, Boise, Houston, Air Force, SMU, San Diego State
East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, USF, UCF, ECU. Navy

6 and 3. Has nothing to do with other sports.

 

[businesslawyer]

Traditionally one conference cosolidates the strongest members.

West: Hawaii. Nevade, Boise, Houston, Air Force, SMU, San Diego State
East: UConn, Rutgers, Cincy, USF, UCF, ECU. Navy

6 and 3. Has nothing to do with other sports.

Just remember -- when you want to do just a football conference, that means you can only do it with teams where they either have a safe landing for their other sports or just don't care. Navy and Air Force don't care. Boise can't realistically do all sports in the Big East, and have the Big Sky as a fallback. But when you're pitching the CUSA Texas schools especially, what are they going to do with their other sports when CUSA throws them out (or are they not supposed to care)? Would SD State be o.k. in the Big West? These are all questions, especially to go to a football conference with no guaranty of a BCS berth or TV money far in excess of what they can get in their current minor conferences.

 

[06029]

Just remember -- when you want to do just a football conference, that means you can only do it with teams where they either have a safe landing for their other sports or just don't care. Navy and Air Force don't care. Boise can't realistically do all sports in the Big East, and have the Big Sky as a fallback. But when you're pitching the CUSA Texas schools especially, what are they going to do with their other sports when CUSA throws them out (or are they not supposed to care)? Would SD State be o.k. in the Big West? These are all questions, especially to go to a football conference with no guaranty of a BCS berth or TV money far in excess of what they can get in their current minor conferences.

That is why I thought a larger confederation would work since only 2 schools need to move from CUSA (definitely keep Memphis there as that is their top BB program) and everyone keeps a landing spot for all other sports. I think that the BCS would go along with this too since it takes away 1 outsider and puts them in a BCS conference and widens the # of schools that can get a spot without increasing the total # of autobids. But I tend to be a simple, linear thinker.

 

[UConnSportsGuy]

Just remember -- when you want to do just a football conference, that means you can only do it with teams where they either have a safe landing for their other sports or just don't care. Navy and Air Force don't care. Boise can't realistically do all sports in the Big East, and have the Big Sky as a fallback. But when you're pitching the CUSA Texas schools especially, what are they going to do with their other sports when CUSA throws them out (or are they not supposed to care)? Would SD State be o.k. in the Big West? These are all questions, especially to go to a football conference with no guaranty of a BCS berth or TV money far in excess of what they can get in their current minor conferences.

That's why I think that the basketball only schools will have to make a sacrifice to make the football conference work. The Big East is going to have to take Houston, SMU, and UCF as all sports schools. Otherwise, to your point, their other sports would be screwed.

 

[freescooter]

I still think a deal with the B-12 makes the most sense. Take all the Big East schools. It would be a solid enough football league even if Texas ultimately bolts. And it would be deep enough to absorb some schools leaving in the future. It is big enough to sponsor other sports at reasonable levels so you could have a soccer league even if Texas wasn't part. Good baseball. And it would be a pretty nice baksetball league, in my view good enough to challenge, maybe beat the ACC for hoop supremacy with Kansas,West Virginia, Texas, UCONN, Louisville, throw in K-State Iowa State both of whom have been pretty good from time to time and if they stay Missouri. Of course, Marrinatto probably can't be the guy negotiating such a deal, but it would be the solution to lots of problems and would open up a BCS bid while securing such an opportunity for the Big East football schools.

 

[CL82]

24 teams is way too many even as a consortium. There would be too many weak programs.

Set aside BE FB as its own thing as see if you can draw at least 8 quality programs in a FB only arrangement. The BE has the bid. Any alliance needs to be built around that.

If they can't, then the "commissioner" of this mess will need to organize the divisions and control the schedule in order to produce the best match ups. I don't see two cross division conference playoff games elevating these teams to BCS standards.

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Agree but we're going big.
Take a look at this quote from Herbst

The Big East is working on excellent expansion plans that will make us very strong, and will also make any future departures unproblematic

So it will be some kind of mega conference. The notion of an easier exit makes UConn aquiesence to this plan make sense.

Pitt, Cuse and WV should all be held to the 27 month agreement. Any school who signs on to the new deal should not. Rewards loyalty (or lack of marketability) and holds the departing to their original time frames for departure.

 

[businesslawyer]

Quote from herbst: "and all will be well." Someone que the scene from animal house where Kevin Bacon says basically that before being run over the the crowd.

 

[Waquoit]

Can't we all admit that we are pretty much screwed? We will end up in the MAC. I'll still go to games.

 

[Fishy]

At this point, just stop issuing press releases.

They don't say anything, they don't mean anything and taken at face value, they're just idiotic.

"And all will be well"? No, sweetpea, all will not be well. All will be a lot of things, but well is not one of 'em.

 

[HartbeatHusky]

My wish would be an invite to the Big Ten, Big 12, or ACC in that order. I think what will happen though will be the Big East will expand adding the 6 that have been mentioned plus one more. Hopefully BYU. If we have to stay in the BE that is the only way it would be remotely feasible.

If the Big East had balls they would take the opportunity to do something outside of the box and start building a western basketball conference/division for the new western members and add some non football members like Butler and Gonzaga. This would set the foundation for the football side and basketball side to each have national conferences that they could split into respectively if the time came for it.

 

[ctchamps]

I still think a deal with the B-12 makes the most sense. Take all the Big East schools. It would be a solid enough football league even if Texas ultimately bolts. And it would be deep enough to absorb some schools leaving in the future. It is big enough to sponsor other sports at reasonable levels so you could have a soccer league even if Texas wasn't part. Good baseball. And it would be a pretty nice baksetball league, in my view good enough to challenge, maybe beat the ACC for hoop supremacy with Kansas,West Virginia, Texas, UCONN, Louisville, throw in K-State Iowa State both of whom have been pretty good from time to time and if they stay Missouri. Of course, Marrinatto probably can't be the guy negotiating such a deal, but it would be the solution to lots of problems and would open up a BCS bid while securing such an opportunity for the Big East football schools.

This would be great if the B12 agreed with you.

 

[CTFootball]

I hope WVU's departure paves the way for a ND/UConn admission to the ACC. My fear though, is that Rutgers remains an option as well. I envision BC pushing for RU over UConn (once again) in an effort to preserve its "stronghold on New England." BC will also argue that RU will provide further inroads into NYC, and access to New Jersey 9households and recrutits).

If the ACC does make a move with ND, I hope the league uses its head and takes the proven program with a lot of addtional upside - UCONN. The overall strength of the UConn's athletic department will improve the overall quality of the ACC (B-Ball, women's B-Ball, soccer, baseball, etc).

 

[businesslawyer]

I hope WVU's departure paves the way for a ND/UConn admission to the ACC. My fear though, is that Rutgers remains an option as well. I envision BC pushing for RU over UConn (once again) in an effort to preserve its "stronghold on New England." BC will also argue that RU will provide further inroads into NYC, and access to New Jersey 9households and recrutits).

If the ACC does make a move with ND, I hope the league uses its head and takes the proven program with a lot of addtional upside - UCONN. The overall strength of the UConn's athletic department will improve the overall quality of the ACC (B-Ball, women's B-Ball, soccer, baseball, etc).

BC would argue that New Jersey's housewives, or pizza, or grinders, are better than ours to keep us out. But their motivation is clear to their partners, and what they say will not be given great weight. I think Pitt and us were close enough as candidates that the ACC took the path of least resistance. While I really hope RU comes out of this o.k., the bottom line is they are not as attractive a candidate all in for a number of reasons.

 

[huskeynut]

As far as Herbst saying all will be well, you never say in public or a press release what you really believe. Ask Pitt!

 

[HartbeatHusky]

There are enough teams in the nation for the Big East to select from to form a decent football conference which is why there is no chance it will merge with MWCUSA. It will take what it wants from both and be done with it. While I prefer to go to another conference, I think the evidence suggests that we are going to be in the new Big East after the dust clears and it will be for a while. ND will remain independent and the BE will become even bigger, and less familiar. So be it. One thing is for sure, the new Big East will be tailor made for NBC and will probably have teams in all 4 time zones. We will be in a conference with teams from Colorado, Utah, Idaho, Texas, heck maybe even Nevada or Cali. It's a new world.

Nobody wants to be in a huge football conference with 30 teams. The BE still has the AQ tag and will be able to secure it's targets as long as other conferences don't take what is left of the current BE football membership, which is possible but not likely.

 

[CTFootball]

BC would argue that New Jersey's housewives, or pizza, or grinders, are better than ours to keep us out. But their motivation is clear to their partners, and what they say will not be given great weight. I think Pitt and us were close enough as candidates that the ACC took the path of least resistance. While I really hope RU comes out of this o.k., the bottom line is they are not as attractive a candidate all in for a number of reasons.

I fully agree. I just don't want to underestimate the power of a current member trying to protect its turf (even if we are only talking about BC, an ACC member for only a few years). Turf wars have been prevelant in every realignment conversation (SEC, Big12, Big East, ACC) and none of the conference moves involve teams that were part of the conversation (with the exception of TCU going to the Big 12).

That being said, I do believe that UConn would be taken ahead of Rutgers if we are lucky enough to get to that situation.

 

[HuskyHawk]

So this is our prognostication thread?

Mizzou to SEC
WVU to Big XII.
Cincy and Louisville to Big XII
Notre Dame and UConn to ACC
Rutgers to B1G along with Iowa State.
Big XII adds BYU to replace Iowa State.
SFU to Conf USA.
BCS system blows up and 16 team playoff instituted.