Berry Tramel: Would the Big Ten welcome OU?

[huskymedic]

If Big 12 eventually falls apart, let’s rank teams SEC would like to add from 1-10

 

[pj]

I don't think Texas has any interest in playing half of its games in the Pacific Time Zone. The Horns are all about exposure for their brand. A move to The Pac is counterproductive to this aim. They don't want to be playing football or basketball games at Oregon State at 10:00 PM EST when half the country in going to bed. They won't make this move because quite frankly they don't have to. If I had to rate their most likely realignment scenarios it would go as follows.

1)The Big 12
Stay status quo or add 2-4 members. Either way they remain in charge, LHN remains intact, and the new additions look at them as some kind of benevolent ruler who plucked them from G5 Purgatory and got them a home in the land of milk and honey. This is their ideal scenario.

2)B1G
Take OU along, cash ridiculous checks every year, and have great exposure for their brand. There is also the B1G Cooperative for the academics. The downside is they would have to play nice with others, and accept that they are in a collective of pseudo equals, and they wold no longer be the shot callers for conference affairs.

3)Combo Indy/ACC
The ND Approach. Park all of their Olympic Teams + basketball in The ACC. They could play a 5 game ACC schedule + ND every season. They could then schedule who ever else they like. The downside would be increased travel for student athletes and the uncertainty of scheduling and their access to bowls.

4)PAC
Good academics and the opportunity to bring more Big 12 Schools along for the ride could be real selling points. Travel, exposure, and playing in The Pacific Time Zone would be major issues for UT Brass

5)SEC
Unquestionably last. The academics in Austin would never go for it, and on the athletic side they wold never want to be viewed as following The Aggies anywhere.

I basically agree, but a few quibbles:
- B1G vs Indy/ACC: the B1G wins on income and academics, but they would have to give up LHN and would be playing a lot in the north. The ACC gives them similar northeast exposure with more games in the south which would help football (e.g. Florida/Georgia recruiting playing FSU and Miami and GTech) along with a valuable new rivalry with Notre Dame. With LHN preserved, the money from the ACC might be comparable. Fewer games in the ACC means more room for Texas rivalries. If the SEC and B1G are viewed as on par, but SEC more southern and B1G more northern, they would risk losing ground in Texas to A&M due to southern allegiances. But Indy/ACC with LHN puts them as the premier program in Texas (only one with their own Texas network). Baseball is big for Texas and ACC is good in baseball. They treasure their ESPN relationship and ESPN owns the ACC, so ESPN will want them to go ACC rather than B1G. I think you may need to flip B1G/ACC.
- PAC vs SEC. I think the travel, lower money in the Pac vs SEC, and lost exposure in the East are huge concerns for Texas. Pride is hard to swallow but if they could do it SEC would be better for them. Going PAC risks being in permanent second place in Texas football to A&M. Academics in the Pac isn't enough to overcome the longer distances -- academic collaborations benefit from nearness. Also Pac's academic strength is in California which is going downhill. The ESPN vs Fox allegiance is important too - ESPN will want them in SEC rather than Pac. I think they swallow their pride and go SEC if SEC and Pac are the only choices.

 

[XOVERX]

The most likely place for Texas to wind up, for the reasons set forth by others upthread, is the B1G. It will be, IMO, Texas and Oklahoma to the B1G at the end of the B12 GOR.

I don't think the question is where Texas and Oklahoma wind up - that will be the B1G . Rather, I think the question is whether the B1G will then expand to 16, 18, or 20.

Expand to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma and the B1G adds the huge Texas market and the Texas recruiting grounds.

However, expansion to 16 leaves basketball powers Connecticut and Kansas sitting on the shelf. Is there enough financial incentive to justify the addition of UConn and KU?

I *think* the answer is "yes", especially in the case of UConn because UConn solidifies the northern extremity of the NE Corridor. KU, the founder of basketball, and a basketball blueblood, is AAU, gives balance to the west, and completely hems in the SEC.

Unless the ACC crumbles, which seems doubtful, I don't think there's any reasonable probability of the B1G going beyond 18 after the demise of the B12 (in it's current configuration).

 

[Zissou]

I think the question is whether the B1G will then expand to 16, 18, or 20.

How much expansion is too much for a conference?

Texas is one of the few real gems left for CR.

With the changes in TV contracts, cord cutting, etc., expanding to 18 or 20 may mean diluting your revenue instead of expanding it per school. Texas adds to any conference. Do the other schools considered in CR add to the average revenue?

I'd be surprised if any conference goes over 16 due to the TV revenue uncertainty.

 

[Doggie Style]

I actually haven't. Do they play college sports?

Classic!!!

 

[pj]

How much expansion is too much for a conference?

Texas is one of the few real gems left for CR.

With the changes in TV contracts, cord cutting, etc., expanding to 18 or 20 may mean diluting your revenue instead of expanding it per school. Texas adds to any conference. Do the other schools considered in CR add to the average revenue?

I'd be surprised if any conference goes over 16 due to the TV revenue uncertainty.

I think as a bloc Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and UConn would be revenue neutral for the B1G, if they are added at the same time B1G contracts are renewed, or at a time when market values have risen relative to the time of the B1G contracts.

The only reason they would be dilutive is if market values for sports content have fallen since the B1G inked their deals. That's quite likely the case. But, the current B1G contracts will expire and that will put everyone on a level playing field.

 

[Zissou]

I think as a bloc Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas and UConn would be revenue neutral for the B1G, if they are added at the same time B1G contracts are renewed, or at a time when market values have risen relative to the time of the B1G contracts.

The only reason they would be dilutive is if market values for sports content have fallen since the B1G inked their deals. That's quite likely the case. But, the current B1G contracts will expire and that will put everyone on a level playing field.

Why not just add Texas and Oklahoma? Revenue gains, without as much dilution.

 

[pj]

Why not just add Texas and Oklahoma? Revenue gains, without as much dilution.

You could, but they'd be out on an island geographically. Moreover, the ACC would add UConn and Kansas, cementing their spot as the top basketball conference, and the B1G would go from dominating the northeast (UConn/Rutgers/Penn State/Maryland/Ohio State/Michigan vs BC/Cuse/Pitt/ND) to being perhaps #2 there (UConn/BC/Notre Dame/Cuse beats the B1G lineup in at least New England and New York, that's 35 million people and a lot of money).

Strategically I think the B1G really wants to be the premier conference in the northeast corridor Washington/Philly/New York/Boston and right now they are even in Washington (Va/Va Tech for ACC), control Philly, New York is up for grabs, and they have nothing in Boston. UConn would secure New York and New England for them. I think they also want to be competitive in basketball, otherwise they have no strong content outside football season.

I don't think UConn and Kansas are all that dilutive either, it only appears that way because the basketball revenue has been shared with 300+ schools while football revenue stays at home. If there is any P5 breakaway, UConn and Kansas become major cash cows.

 

[Ldandy]

The most likely place for Texas to wind up, for the reasons set forth by others upthread, is the B1G. It will be, IMO, Texas and Oklahoma to the B1G at the end of the B12 GOR.

I don't think the question is where Texas and Oklahoma wind up - that will be the B1G . Rather, I think the question is whether the B1G will then expand to 16, 18, or 20.

Expand to 16 with Texas and Oklahoma and the B1G adds the huge Texas market and the Texas recruiting grounds.

However, expansion to 16 leaves basketball powers Connecticut and Kansas sitting on the shelf. Is there enough financial incentive to justify the addition of UConn and KU?

I *think* the answer is "yes", especially in the case of UConn because UConn solidifies the northern extremity of the NE Corridor. KU, the founder of basketball, and a basketball blueblood, is AAU, gives balance to the west, and completely hems in the SEC.

Unless the ACC crumbles, which seems doubtful, I don't think there's any reasonable probability of the B1G going beyond 18 after the demise of the B12 (in it's current configuration).

Texas UM
OU OSU
UNL PSU
UW MSU
Iowa UMD
MN RU
Illini IU
NW PU
KU UC

Yeah sign me up for this. At the top of the conference for football you have 6 teams in the 800 Win Club. Throw in a number of other programs that have been competitive nationally like UW, MSU, and Iowa and you really have something formidable. For basketball you add 2 of the all time winning programs in KU and UC to go along with a number of quality programs already on board. Olympic Sports, already a high point in the conference, would get a definite boost from these additions. With The ACC locked up until the second coming, these 4 brands would provide the B1G with the most value.

Texas could add subs in the conventional sense, while the other three could all prove lucrative in selling BTN as a stand alone product to their large fan bases. If The B1G holds back some of their media rights for themselves in their next contract, there might be good money to be made selling direct network subscriptions or even selling stand alone events. People will pay money to see Michigan play at Austin or Oklahoma visit Beaver Stadium for a Whiteout. It could be interesting to watch unfold.

 

[Rufus]

Here is a recent article from a newspaper in Nebraska. It basically talks about how OU joining the B1G would be great for NU, as their long lost annual rivalry game the day after Thanksgiving disappeared when the old Big 8 died.

Rumblings of Sooners could shake Big Ten if realignment resumed