Berry Tramel: Would the Big Ten welcome OU? | The Boneyard

Berry Tramel: Would the Big Ten welcome OU?

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Berry Tramel: Would the Big Ten welcome OU?

Pretty interesting article. It makes points about how Michigan State was not a member of the AAU until 11 years AFTER it became a member of the Big Ten and how it was known Nebraska was likely to lose its AAU membership when voted in. A lot of focus is on how Oklahoma and Nebraska are very similar academically. When discussion a potential partner in expansion, the article mentions Texas as the best option for the Sooners, but also mentions Kansas as a possibility. No other school is mentioned by the article.
 

pj

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It's true that Oklahoma is more attractive than Nebraska. It's also true that the B1G may regret adding Nebraska now that it's realized the honeypot bigger markets provide, and the ease with which a football reputation can fade.

Oklahoma is in the same boat as UConn, an attractive but not compelling value proposition. It will all come down to the B1G's strategy and what Texas, the one school with a compelling value proposition, wants to do. Then Oklahoma, Kansas, and UConn will compete to fill in the blanks.
 

huskeynut

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I don't see the Big10 taking Texas at all. Too much baggage and too many headaches.

Texas is not going to give up the LHN for any conference. And Texas has to be the head honcho in whatever conference it is in. That is not going to happen in the Big10.
 
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So Texas is not going anywhere. What about the other schools? Will everyone pull in 60m a year? The answer is no. That's why OK will look to leave.

The article by Tramel (which triggered Dodds article/tweets) talks about the prospect of OU going w/ either Texas or KU and his opinion is KU is a non-starter.

Things are quiet... they need something to talk about till football season starts.
 
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Weren't Oklahoma and Oklahoma St always suppose to be tied together in conference realignment? Never thought much of Kansas before but they would see to fit most of what the B1G wants.
 

The Funster

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I can't see Texas to the B1G unless there are some serious concessions from each side and that ain't happening. I can't see the B1G taking OU and Kansas either. Both have their cache but in today's market driven approach both will bring crickets. I think CR is pretty much dead. The PAC doesn't have any moves that make sense unless they offer UT and OU but that's a long shot. The SEC doesn't need anyone. The B1g doesn't need anyone and the ACC won't need anyone until the mythical day that ND joins. The only choice for UConn in the AAC is to find the best way to maximize revenue and exposure.
 

CL82

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Yep @The Funster I am afraid that you are right. The only events I can see on the horizon that could possibly promote change are:

1) Big 12 rights agreement. I suspect that they are next on the WWL's list for contraction. I doubt they'll see a particularly lucrative deal, at least when compared to the Big 10. UConn impact: If the Big 12 breaks up we may be able to up grade our conference with the leftovers by their joining the AAC or UConn joining them.

2) B1G rights agreement. Again, I suspect that there will be some sticker shocker here as I think that the conference rights bubble may have burst. The B1G will still have a top deal, but it may be more modest. BTN revenue will cushion the blow. UConn impact: We have the best demographics of any non-affiliated school. We might be an attractive addition for the BTN, but I doubt we bring enough overall value to be a worthwhile add unless TV revenue is dramatically diminished.

3) ACC Network. They will need content. UConn impact: We bring valuable demographics and content. This is probably our best possibility. It is still unlikely.

4) ACC partner for ND. UConn impact: We are the logical choice.

Tough to handicap it but maybe we've got a 20% chance of getting out of the AAC.
 
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IMO, the B1G would take OK but only as a +1 with another school.

Everybody assumes the TV bubble is going to burst and it likely will for some. However, I don't think properties like the SEC & B1G will see any reduction in their fees.

Live sports content will always have value regardless of who broadcasts it and how it's watched. With all the P5 contracts expiring around the same time it's very likely that the B12, ACC & even the PAC see a significant reduction in their rates. This makes the SEC & B1G a more likely landing spot for the small handful of schools that can provide a windfall of dollars to them.

The only schools that are a guarantee to generate big money to either conference are Texas & Notre Dame. After that, the only likely candidates are maybe UNC, UVA & Florida St.

Would the B1G take OK if UT came along? Absolutely. Would they take OK if UNC came? Probably. Would they take OK with Florida St? Maybe. After that, OK is out of luck. There is no way the B1G takes them without a windfall partner
 
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What makes UNC and UVA so special? They are basketball schools and no different than Kansas. And UVA is going nowhere if it hurts VT - that was made clear when the state govt forced UVA to help bring VT into the ACC when they were not wanted.
 
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What makes UNC and UVA so special? They are basketball schools and no different than Kansas. And UVA is going nowhere if it hurts VT - that was made clear when the state govt forced UVA to help bring VT into the ACC when they were not wanted.

This has nothing to do with athletic accomplishments or athletic department success.

The ONLY thing that MAYBE makes them special is their ability to generate TV dollars.
 

dayooper

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IMO, the B1G would take OK but only as a +1 with another school.

Everybody assumes the TV bubble is going to burst and it likely will for some. However, I don't think properties like the SEC & B1G will see any reduction in their fees.

Live sports content will always have value regardless of who broadcasts it and how it's watched. With all the P5 contracts expiring around the same time it's very likely that the B12, ACC & even the PAC see a significant reduction in their rates. This makes the SEC & B1G a more likely landing spot for the small handful of schools that can provide a windfall of dollars to them.

The only schools that are a guarantee to generate big money to either conference are Texas & Notre Dame. After that, the only likely candidates are maybe UNC, UVA & Florida St.

Would the B1G take OK if UT came along? Absolutely. Would they take OK if UNC came? Probably. Would they take OK with Florida St? Maybe. After that, OK is out of luck. There is no way the B1G takes them without a windfall partner

There are two ways to get money and exposure for conferences like the Big10: take a large school in a region with a large population (Rutgers and Maryland) or schools that will produced games that will have a national interest (Nebraska). Does Oklahoma football and Kansas basketball do that? I don't know. I would think UConn basketball would do that as well, but what do I know?
 
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There are two ways to get money and exposure for conferences like the Big10:

#3: Expand into a talent rich area. It opens up new markets for recruiting which, in the long run, improves quality and ultimately leads to greater interest.
 
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Jim Delany wants to expand EAST....

I actually agree that UT wouldn't fit.
 
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The Big 12 will need to look for expansion pretty soon (hopefully this summer they will actually do something.) as I think they realize that if they dont do something soon OU or Texas will look for a new home during the next phase of expansion. If expansion happens, if location means anything at all, Houston would be the most probable right? Great football team that sells out games, and a decent amount of cash. And add another one of the candidates being: Air Force, BYU, UCF, Cincy, Colorado State, UConn, Rice, USF, SMU, Temple and Tulane.

But lets say they add 2 schools that are not UConn. Could this maybe cause other conferences to expand? What are the possibilites here?
 
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Pretty interesting article. It makes points about how Michigan State was not a member of the AAU until 11 years AFTER it became a member of the Big Ten and how it was known Nebraska was likely to lose its AAU membership when voted in. A lot of focus is on how Oklahoma and Nebraska are very similar academically. .

He knows all that because he reads this board.
 

dayooper

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Probably SOUTHeast

Nope. Mid Atlantic. I think the Nova troll was on to something: it's gotta be JMU. They pull in that northern Virginia Mountain market and will solidify the WV market too. The jump from FCS to the Big10 isn't that big. Puts the BTN in Virginia, just maybe they can, over time, take advantage of the situation and dominate. Throw in Nova football to duplicate, no . . . copy, no . . . be redundant, no . . . um . . . um . . . solidify that Philly market. Yeah, solidify that market. Yup JMU and Nova football to the Big10 is a winner. Just aks me, I have many Nova mind tricks to make you see the light.
 
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I wouldn't bet on any CR. That said, the move that would make the most sense to me is UT, TT, Oklahoma, and OK State moving together to the PAC in about 6 years when the B12 GOR is near expiration. For political and rivalry reasons it is logical for these teams to move together. The PAC is the only P4 at 12 (or less) that could absorb these 4 to total 16.

These 4 would add considerable value to the PAC in the programs and markets. Nothing else really adds value to the SEC, B1G, or the ACC. Notre Dame doesn't really gain anything by putting its second foot in the door. So maybe those 4 to the PAC are the only move and this establishes a football P4.

In this scenario the B12 ceases as we know it, and at least becomes a G6. Baylor, TCU, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, and WVU aren't enough to anchor a P5 conference, and there aren't enough top end programs to replace the 4 departing schools.

When the B12 faked expansion last year, they leveraged ESPN and Fox for a payment NOT to expand. It was cheaper, in an environment of cord cutting and reducing revenue, to pay off the B12 not to expand rather than have to pay the contractual pro rata sum to added programs. In this environment, maybe the networks reduce costs by essentially only paying the "P4 rate" to UT, TT, OU, and OK State in the PAC, and the 6 that are left out get something closer to an AAC or G6 rate in whatever CR happens below the P4.
 
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I don't think Texas has any interest in playing half of its games in the Pacific Time Zone. The Horns are all about exposure for their brand. A move to The Pac is counterproductive to this aim. They don't want to be playing football or basketball games at Oregon State at 10:00 PM EST when half the country in going to bed. They won't make this move because quite frankly they don't have to. If I had to rate their most likely realignment scenarios it would go as follows.

1)The Big 12
Stay status quo or add 2-4 members. Either way they remain in charge, LHN remains intact, and the new additions look at them as some kind of benevolent ruler who plucked them from G5 Purgatory and got them a home in the land of milk and honey. This is their ideal scenario.

2)B1G
Take OU along, cash ridiculous checks every year, and have great exposure for their brand. There is also the B1G Cooperative for the academics. The downside is they would have to play nice with others, and accept that they are in a collective of pseudo equals, and they wold no longer be the shot callers for conference affairs.

3)Combo Indy/ACC
The ND Approach. Park all of their Olympic Teams + basketball in The ACC. They could play a 5 game ACC schedule + ND every season. They could then schedule who ever else they like. The downside would be increased travel for student athletes and the uncertainty of scheduling and their access to bowls.

4)PAC
Good academics and the opportunity to bring more Big 12 Schools along for the ride could be real selling points. Travel, exposure, and playing in The Pacific Time Zone would be major issues for UT Brass

5)SEC
Unquestionably last. The academics in Austin would never go for it, and on the athletic side they wold never want to be viewed as following The Aggies anywhere.
 
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The Big 12 will need to look for expansion pretty soon (hopefully this summer they will actually do something.) as I think they realize that if they dont do something soon OU or Texas will look for a new home during the next phase of expansion. If expansion happens, if location means anything at all, Houston would be the most probable right? Great football team that sells out games, and a decent amount of cash. And add another one of the candidates being: Air Force, BYU, UCF, Cincy, Colorado State, UConn, Rice, USF, SMU, Temple and Tulane.

But lets say they add 2 schools that are not UConn. Could this maybe cause other conferences to expand? What are the possibilites here?

Not this again...Big 12 is dead. They bought their own coffins this past fall. OU and UT will leave after the current TV contract is up. Iowa St and all of those others will be relegated to AAC status overnight.
 

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