Belichick system | The Boneyard

Belichick system

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Waquoit said:
Maybe give the guy some weapons?
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So, I was looking at the numbers. In 2015, Brady had a 64% completion rate, 4,770 yds, 36 TDs and 7 ints. His WR's were Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola and Keyshawn Martin. He was already 38 at that point so it's not like he was young.

Did the lack of weapons hurt him there?
 
Deepster said:
So, I was looking at the numbers. In 2015, Brady had a 64% completion rate, 4,770 yds, 36 TDs and 7 ints. His WR's were Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola and Keyshawn Martin. He was already 38 at that point so it's not like he was young.

Did the lack of weapons hurt him there?
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Not sure what your point is. Josh's offense has needed a major overhaul for years. The reason they didn't is because Brady knew it so well and his knowledge was an asset. On the other hand, that overly complex system was very difficult for new players to learn.

I think 2020 was a transition year. They incorporated some read option but it remained too structured and complex. More changes will come this season. Tampa has as good a receiving corps as exist in the NFL. Brady was sacked 21 times vs 27 in 2019. But he only avoided that sack total being higher by throwing the ball away frequently last year (37 times). The OL was a disaster, playing almost all backups and 3rd string guys.
 
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I guess I don't know what to think. These are all things I've heard over the years.

1) Brady was a system QB, it was really Belichick.
2) Brady doesn't need the talent, he makes guys like Chris Hogan work.
3) Brady didn't do well last year because he didn't have the talent around him.
4) Brady's cooked. You could see it last year.

Then he goes to a new team, new system, new coach, no preseason, limitations on practicing....and puts up a great year.
 
Deepster said:
I guess I don't know what to think. These are all things I've heard over the years.

1) Brady was a system QB, it was really Belichick.
2) Brady doesn't need the talent, he makes guys like Chris Hogan work.
3) Brady didn't do well last year because he didn't have the talent around him.
4) Brady's cooked. You could see it last year.

Then he goes to a new team, new system, new coach, no preseason, limitations on practicing....and puts up a great year.
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Brady is a great QB. He has often played without great receivers. In the Patriots system he made that work because it was about precision and timing. The basketball equivalent of a perfect backdoor cut run by Princeton. He did have Moss and Gronk who could do more, and guys like Branch, Welker and Edelman who got open with superior quickness (if not straight line speed).

Arians runs a vertical passing system that relies on talent at WR to beat their man. Brady had a whole bunch of early hiccups adapting to that. As he became comfortable he was very good at executing it. He has 2 good TEs, three very good WR, 2 good RBs and a good OL. That offense is loaded.

Brady was not good in 2019 because the OL was obliterated and he's a human statue. Running an offense that is based on timing and precise route running, with pre-snap reads doesn't work if they other team can blitz you every down and get to you in about 2 seconds. It's worse when the receivers are young and don't know your pre-snap reads and route adjustments. Even then he threw for 4000 yards.

Miami fired their OC before this season. He was a Patriots guy. Flores said he can't run a Patriots offense with young players. The trend is away from complex pre-snap reads and adjustments, where Brady and Manning were the best ever, to post snap adjustments. Defenses disguise coverage so well that the adjustments frequently come post snap. Improvisational, athletic guys making plays. You can see it with most of the QBs still playing. Mahomes, Allen, Mayfield, Jackson etc. QB mobility, and read option means the offense is changing the play post snap. Brady can't run that. Brees can't run that. Rodgers probably can.
 
Deepster said:
So, I was looking at the numbers. In 2015, Brady had a 64% completion rate, 4,770 yds, 36 TDs and 7 ints. His WR's were Edelman, Brandon LaFell, Danny Amendola and Keyshawn Martin. He was already 38 at that point so it's not like he was young.

Did the lack of weapons hurt him there?
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Just shows you how great he is. He's even better when he has weapons.
 
Do any Patriots fans have predictions on what they do at QB? I am sure much depends on how the draft falls and it is hard to predict. Will Bill even want to roll with a rookie? Is there a veteran that will be available at a cheap enough price? I kept hearing Stafford and Ryan but they aren’t going anywhere. Watson would cost too much in draft picks and we have other holes to fill.

I think they need to try to get one of the top 4 guys in the draft, or grab a serviceable but cheap veteran like Fitzgerald or Tyrod Taylor. Maybe both. Somebody who will play on a one year deal.

I think there is a chance that Trey Lance or Zach Wilson slides into the teens. But then there will be teams trying to trade up. Will Bill move up 3-4 spots? He may need to. I think #15 is too early for Mac Jones. He looks like a 2nd round guy to me even with those weapons. His receiving corps at Bama is better than the Patriots have.
 
I don't see what good it would be to bring in Stafford or Ryan. You're not making a run within the next 2-3 years. Strip it down and build it back up while you still have Belichick.
 
Deepster said:
I don't see what good it would be to bring in Stafford or Ryan. You're not making a run within the next 2-3 years. Strip it down and build it back up while you still have Belichick.
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I don’t think they are 2-3 years away. They had several Covid opt outs from key players and have loads of salary cap space. They are a QB, WR and DT away from being a playoff team next year. That said, I don’t see them trading away picks for an aging QB. Especially QBs with bigger contracts than they gave Brady. That’s not how Bill does things.
 
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HuskyHawk said:
I don’t think they are 2-3 years away. They had several Covid opt outs from key players and have loads of salary cap space. They are a QB, WR and DT away from being a playoff team next year. That said, I don’t see them trading away picks for an aging QB. Especially QBs with bigger contracts than they gave Brady. That’s not how Bill does things.
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Factor in the division isn't in their laps anymore.
Factor in whoever they get at QB isn't TB12.
Factor in they still have to get through KC, Baltimore, Tennessee, etc.
Factor in they could or will likely have to win road playoff games for once.
 
HuskyHawk said:
Do any Patriots fans have predictions on what they do at QB? I am sure much depends on how the draft falls and it is hard to predict. Will Bill even want to roll with a rookie? Is there a veteran that will be available at a cheap enough price? I kept hearing Stafford and Ryan but they aren’t going anywhere. Watson would cost too much in draft picks and we have other holes to fill.

I think they need to try to get one of the top 4 guys in the draft, or grab a serviceable but cheap veteran like Fitzgerald or Tyrod Taylor. Maybe both. Somebody who will play on a one year deal.

I think there is a chance that Trey Lance or Zach Wilson slides into the teens. But then there will be teams trying to trade up. Will Bill move up 3-4 spots? He may need to. I think #15 is too early for Mac Jones. He looks like a 2nd round guy to me even with those weapons. His receiving corps at Bama is better than the Patriots have.
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Watson is worth ALOT of picks.
 
G0UCONN said:
Watson is worth ALOT of picks.
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Second best QB in the league in my opinion, maybe 3rd if you count Rodgers. But still I wouldn't both pay his huge contract and give up 3 first round picks for him. That's crippling to any franchise. Caserio will talk to him and try to reassure him. No idea why Houston didn't interview Biennamy.
 
I am glad it was Tampa Bay winning with Brady rather than The Patriots and Belicheck winning without Brady.
 
Things are getting interesting in the game of QB musical chairs. Russell Wilson evidently annoyed Seattle with his comments. Watson almost has to be moved now, and rumors are he likes Denver and SF, maybe Miami and doesn't want to go to the Jets. That means the Jets likely draft Wilson from BYU...unless they trade for David Carr or Russell Wilson. Wentz may be available too.

I think Belichick is in a really solid position to get somebody capable and possibly draft a QB. Guys like Dalton are going to be available. I can see him taking a chance with somebody like Trubisky as well. Lots of talent, and could be a reclamation project. Not that worried about QB.

The cuts are starting now. With the reduced cap, good player who perform a little under their cap hit are being let go. And New England is there with loads of cap space to grab them. With so many teams over the cap, they aren't able to even compete for those players.
 
With Belichick's poor historical draft results, hoarding of picks and refusal to dole out big FA money, why do you think they're in a really solid position to get a good QB?

They're not giving away the picks for Watson or Wilson. Or the picks to move up for Wilson or Fields. Last year, they appeared headed into week 1 with Stidham and Hoyer until grabbing Cam Newton on the cheap off the scrap heap.
I can absolutely see them going cheap with a Dalton or Carr and finishing 4th place in the AFC East next season.
 
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Deepster said:
With Belichick's poor historical draft results, hoarding of picks and refusal to dole out big FA money, why do you think they're in a really solid position to get a good QB?

They're not giving away the picks for Watson or Wilson. Or the picks to move up for Wilson or Fields. Last year, they appeared headed into week 1 with Stidham and Hoyer until grabbing Cam Newton on the cheap off the scrap heap.
I can absolutely see them going cheap with a Dalton or Carr and finishing 4th place in the AFC East next season.
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You consider Carr going cheap? He has better career numbers than Stafford and is younger. Over 4000 yards each of the last 3 years, and not many INTs. Dalton is going cheap, but is competent. There are more competent starters than there are teams. Draft a QB and sign a decent bridge QB like Dalton, Fitzgerald etc. The other option is to gamble on Trubisky or Winston or trade for Wentz.

I think it's comical that teams think drafting somebody solves this position. A team like Miami has Tua, but at this point he's not shown that he's better than a Dalton. I think the odds are as high that a Trubisky or Winston can take the next step (entirely mental) than that Justin Fields becomes a stud QB out of the gate.
 
Of the QBs you mentioned. Carr, Dalton, Fitzgerald, Trubisky, Wentz. They've already hit their ceiling and are pretty far from exceeding that ever again. You bank on Tua or Fields with the hopes they have higher, longer ceilings, obviously.

That's why teams like the Jets hire a Saleh over a retread like Jeff Fisher or Norv Turner.
 
I'll tell you who Brady got paid: His OC's. Weis and O'Brien made bank thanks to him. McDaniels got his shot, blew it. And I can't see him getting another HC job after his one year without Brady.
 
Waquoit said:
I'll tell you who Brady got paid: His OC's. Weis and O'Brien made bank thanks to him. McDaniels got his shot, blew it. And I can't see him getting another HC job after his one year without Brady.
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Belichick got them paid and Tom assisted. The brains and the GOAT. Don't forget the Lions little fatty coach who Bill made millions for, not Tom. Also remember according to Pats fans they never had good players anywhere so obviously besides Toms ability as the GOAT the coach had to assemble and put in position to win with crappy players. LOL. Nothing Tom did this year takes away from Belichick unless that's what you want to see.
 
Deepster said:
Of the QBs you mentioned. Carr, Dalton, Fitzgerald, Trubisky, Wentz. They've already hit their ceiling and are pretty far from exceeding that ever again. You bank on Tua or Fields with the hopes they have higher, longer ceilings, obviously.

That's why teams like the Jets hire a Saleh over a retread like Jeff Fisher or Norv Turner.
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My current first choice, if they can get him, is Mariota. He is smart, has legs, can throw on the move and is careful with the ball. Injuries and bad offenses have derailed his career, but he's still young. In a new situation there is no reason he can't be what he was supposed to be when drafted #2. Trade for him and draft Jamie Newman (WF/UGA) who has all the athletic talent needed, but will need a couple of years to learn.
 
Not gonna lie. Seeing Brady hammered on a boat, throwing the Lombardi around.....and having Pats fans view Marcus Mariota as their best case scenario makes me happy.
 
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Deepster said:
Not gonna lie. Seeing Brady hammered on a boat, throwing the Lombardi around.....and having Pats fans view Marcus Mariota as their best case scenario makes me happy.
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Until you realize that Mariota's early career stats look a lot like Drew Brees' from San Diego. The Saints came out ok with that signing.

It's simple math. Watson costs too much in trade. Wentz costs too much against the cap and has his own problems. There is no top 10 QB available, and drafting a QB (as Jets fans know well) is like buying a scratch ticket. There is a lot more value in seeing if some crappy team and system ruined their high draft pick QB. It's why the Jets should probably keep Darnold and see what the new staff can do with him rather than buying another scratch ticket. Why the Giants should stay with Jones and upgrade the roster elsewhere.

The smart move it to get two chances. Sign a reclamation project to a fairly cheap contract, and draft a QB outside the first round. So that's Mariota (former #2), Trubisky (former #3), Winston (former #1) as the value options. Low cost, high potential upside.
 
I don’t like any of the parties involved, but didn’t the pats have like 7 defensive starters opt out due to Covid?

And lost Brady and had little cap room to replace any of the above?

And still was in the playoff race most of the way.

Name another team that loses that many defensive starters for a non normal football related reason and is still competitor.

(Not To mention cam looked pretty good until he got Covid).
 
the Q said:
(Not To mention cam looked pretty good until he got Covid).
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Did he? Through 3 games, he made plays with his legs but had 2 passing TD's, 2 INT's total. 155 and 162 yds passing in Games 1 & 3. Lots of dinks and dunks. You could also say there was no preseason game film of him and took a couple weeks for Def Coordinators to know what facing them would be like.
 
Deepster said:
Marcus Mariota is the next Drew Brees. Now I've heard it all.
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I don't expect it, but it is possible that he thrives in the right setting. He has the talent. QB success is linked closely to how they fit the offensive system.

Tony Romo was undrafted, and was a 3rd string holder, who only survived a cut his first year because one of the 4 QBs in camp got hurt. Kurt Warner was playing arena football. The WFT just signed Taylor Heinicke to a two year deal.
 
the Q said:
I don’t like any of the parties involved, but didn’t the pats have like 7 defensive starters opt out due to Covid?

And lost Brady and had little cap room to replace any of the above?

And still was in the playoff race most of the way.

Name another team that loses that many defensive starters for a non normal football related reason and is still competitor.

(Not To mention cam looked pretty good until he got Covid).
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No, but they had the most opt outs in the NFL. They had two defensive starters and one starting OT opt out. One of the two was a LB, and the defensive captain and play caller. Since they lost two other starting LBs to free agency they lost the entire LB corps. The other starter who opted out was a big safety, who plays LB in some dime defenses, so yeah it hurt the D.

Cam looked good in game 1, where the Pats came out and ran read option and the other team wasn't ready for it, because they hadn't run it since Steve Grogan was the QB. After that, not so much. Nobody knew he couldn't throw at that point. As the season went on it became obvious and teams played the run, dared Cam to pass and the running game struggled.

I think it was kind of amazing they went 7-9 and nearly won about 3 of the games they lost. It won't take much to improve on that and the have 63 million in cap space.
 
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