The issue is that we can't take another loss, leaving the possibility of a tie between us and either Memphis or Tulsa, asI understand it. In other words, it's very likely that we would need to beat Cincy in order to get the spot, even with SMU beating both.
If we lose to Cincy, we would need both to lose an additional game...
I believe your correct we beat cincy and smu beats Memphis we get the bye
If we don't beat cincy looks like 7 seed. Which is 6 o'clock thurs then 7 Friday
If we don't get bye rather be the 6 with the later games but not sure it will play out like that