BE Commissioner: Expansion Possible Before 2024

[ConnHuskBask]

I'm not saying they're assured to remain a top 5 program, I can't really say that for any program who loses a top coach but I don't think they'll just become a regular program or an also ran when Few retires. I also don't see that for UConn, Duke, Cuse...

I guess it all depends on what would define "success" for Gonzaga post Few?

I think an very optimistic expectation could be something like Xavier's last decade: 6 NCAAs, 3 S16 and an Elite 8.

Which is good - but is that worth expanding for an extreme geographic outlier?

 

[Chief00]

Like it or not, the Big East is inherently in reaction mode. Whatever, significant changes that do happen will be the dominoes effect of schools leaving the ACC for SEC or Big 10.

 

[JonnyRI]

Good points. But what happens when Few retires? I don’t recall anyone talking about them 15 years ago. Remember when DePaul was a better bball school than Gonzaga?

Not sure about that. Not at all.

I forget the exact details, but pretty sure it was winter of 2006? And I was up at like 3am or something like that while serving in Iraq to watch UConn play the Zags. Don’t think I would have done the same to play DePaul.

And DePaul was a better bball school when ?

The 80’s????

 

[pj]

BTW. Stanford and Gonzaga all sports and Stanford goes indy in football. If there is no USC, UCLA< Oregon and Washington, what does Stanford stay in a western conference? Their peer institutions have gone east.

If Stanford joins the Big East, you give them any west coast partner they want.

Gonzaga alone doesn't thrill me. No guarantee they stay top tier in basketball, and then you could have a Depaul 3000 miles away in eastern Washington.

 

[JohnFSilver]

Like it or not, the Big East is inherently in reaction mode. Whatever, significant changes that do happen will be the dominoes effect of schools leaving the ACC for SEC or Big 10.

Reaction mode? I wouldn’t call it that.

Big East is a basketball league. No one is making basketball moves.

If big east does anything, it absolutely has zero affect on what any other league is doing. No one is scared of the big east. Or threatened by big east. It isnt even a home for anyone but non-football powers .

 

[Fishy]

I agree, it would obviously pay short term dividends, but I worry about the long term addition of Gonzaga. The previous comparisons of schools like Duke and UConn before Coach K and Calhoun don't hold for me. Duke was good before Coach K, but Coach K was there for so long with so much success that he made Duke a massive brand. They will continue to be successful after him because of that brand. Duke probably has the largest following of non-alums of any college basketball team. UConn is a major public university in the northeast. It doesn't need Calhoun to draw eyes and build success.

Gonzaga is neither of these. Few has not elevated them to the level of Duke, and is unlikely to. I have met one Gonzaga fan in my life. People watch them because of their present success, but would not continue to watch them if they drop off after Few. Also, like Fishy said, Washington and Washington State are the large public universities in Washington. Gonzaga doesn't have that benefit that UConn has beyond Calhoun.

Also, Duke has not played a game without K yet.

Georgetown feels like a better comparison. Georgetown made some bad hires and simply cannot get off the mat - it would be even harder for Gonzaga. And I am not convinced that the next guy they hire is going to magically have Few’s remarkable ability to build a roster from transfers.

So if they do fall, you basically have a poor man’s Georgetown 3,000 miles from Storrs…yay.

I feel like there must someone at the Big East thinking the same thing…if Gonzaga is the answer, sooner is much better than later. There’s no reason to wait on it unless there’s no match to be made for one side or the other.

 

[Fishy]

If Stanford joins the Big East, you give them any west coast partner they want.

Gonzaga alone doesn't thrill me. No guarantee they stay top tier in basketball, and then you could have a Depaul 3000 miles away in eastern Washington.

There’s no chance Stanford would do this, but if they actually wanted to, they can bring Lake Tahoe Community College with them.

 

[Travelman6]

If BE went to 14 I guess they could split it into 2 divisions. Play your 6 division mates twice (12 games) + other division once each for 7, getting to 19, and then rotate, on a 7 years basis what team in the other division you play a 2nd time for the final 20th game. Add Gonzaga for the 12th and find two more appealing additions. Then you can pretty steadily assure yourself of 7 and perhaps, in a good year, 8 teams making the tournament and more or less keeping up with the B10, SEC, and ACC as far as how many teams they put in (conference perception), which is what you want as another poster mentioned + it increases the odds that one team goes deep (conference perception).

Go to 13 in one big division and rotate, every other year, 6 teams played twice, 6 teams played once for an 18-game schedule. Similar if they just added one (Zags or otherwise), one big conference, 9 teams x 2 games + 2 teams x 1 game = 20 games.

 

[auror]

Also, Duke has not played a game without K yet.

Georgetown feels like a better comparison. Georgetown made some bad hires and simply cannot get off the mat - it would be even harder for Gonzaga. And I am not convinced that the next guy they hire is going to magically have Few’s remarkable ability to build a roster from transfers.

So if they do fall, you basically have a poor man’s Georgetown 3,000 miles from Storrs…yay.

I feel like there must someone at the Big East thinking the same thing…if Gonzaga is the answer, sooner is much better than later. There’s no reason to wait on it unless there’s no match to be made for one side or the other.

Georgetown could get off the mat immediately (or 2 years max -- similar timetable to Hurley rebuild for us) if they hired a coach with literally any sort of competency, which they could easily do thanks to their prestige, location, and resources. But they refuse to do so, because famous alumni reasons. They're only stuck by their own designs. And still, they recruited a 5* last year and brought in a really nice transfer class this year after going 0-18 (to be fair partially due to famous alumni reasons).

Basketball school NIL is a real thing, and Gonzaga is THE basketball school in the Pacific Northwest. Timme is making >$500k this year in NIL. KenPom subscriber "favorite programs" is a useful proxy for hardcore (online biased) fanbase engagement. They're currently 10th (we're 14th), tied with Villanova and Virginia. That would go down in a post-Few world as it likely includes some neutral frontrunners, but the comparison above made to Xavier which is 28th seems reasonable as a somewhat bad but not worst case scenario (X has missed 4 straight tournaments after getting a 1 seed). Gonzaga has a lot of really passionate fans that have been grown over the last 20 years and will continue to grow over the next Few years. It takes a lot to erode that completely. They likely can sustain 1 post-Few coach failure if they nail the 2nd, similar to how Ollie wounded but did not kill us.

Gonzaga will also have a much easier time in a post-Few world if they have the prestige and recruiting/resources boost of being in the Big East. In that way, the Big East invite itself is a buffer against decline (in a way that the AAC is not a strong enough league to do so for Wichita St). That's one reason why the Xavier comp makes a lot of sense.

 

[noeynox]

Exhibit A, counselor: The A&W Third Pounder Failed Because People Didn’t Understand Fractions

Judgement - people are stupid.

Great read.

 

[Get a Job]

Gonzaga has a lot of really passionate fans that have been grown over the last 20 years and will continue to grow over the next Few years.

ISWYDT

 

[Iceman03]

1st, I'm a Husky Ice Hockey & Football Fan above Basketball, and was horrified when UConn rejoined the Big East, as it was a signal that they could be abandoning Football, but given the absolute dumpster fire that the AAC is now, it was a good move in retrospect. That said, IMHO, any conference addition that does not add geographic rivalries doesn't make sense to me. I watch as many games as I can, and quite frankly, have no interest in a Wednesday night game at Gonzaga that starts at 11:00 PM. So, that said, other than the potential of more schools going Independent in football, who would be good Non BCS fits?

 

[Greedo]

1st, I'm a Husky Ice Hockey & Football Fan above Basketball, and was horrified when UConn rejoined the Big East, as it was a signal that they could be abandoning Football, but given the absolute dumpster fire that the AAC is now, it was a good move in retrospect. That said, IMHO, any conference addition that does not add geographic rivalries doesn't make sense to me. I watch as many games as I can, and quite frankly, have no interest in a Wednesday night game at Gonzaga that starts at 11:00 PM. So, that said, other than the potential of more schools going Independent in football, who would be good Non BCS fits?

No one. Schools like Dayton and Saint Louis are probably two of the closest, but they don't have enough sustained success to be Big East level. Xavier would also potentially block Dayton.

I would say maybe Dayton in 5-10 years if they can keep themselves in and around the top 25.

 

[CL82]

Reaction mode? I wouldn’t call it that.

Big East is a basketball league. No one is making basketball moves.

If big east does anything, it absolutely has zero affect on what any other league is doing. No one is scared of the big east. Or threatened by big east. It isnt even a home for anyone but non-football powers .

Ouch. That was a tough “like“ but I couldn’t agree more. The thing that you didn’t say, but was implied, is the Big East media deal is rapidly becoming a de facto rounding error compared to where the big two is going. It is barely meaningful money.

It isn’t really so much that football schools don’t care about basketball but more of that under the current circumstances basketball doesn’t make significant money. If the P2 decides to start its own tournament then being “a basketball school” or being a basketball only conference will have more value.

 

[navery12]

I guess it all depends on what would define "success" for Gonzaga post Few?

I think an very optimistic expectation could be something like Xavier's last decade: 6 NCAAs, 3 S16 and an Elite 8.

Which is good - but is that worth expanding for an extreme geographic outlier?

Yes. If you told me Gonzaga becomes Xavier I would sign up for them joining the Big East tomorrow

 

[CL82]

It takes a lot to erode that completely.

Probably less than you think. UConn football went from being a two time biggest champion that went to the Fiesta Bowl to being one of the worst programs in college football in less than a decade. Sports fans have a very short memory. Add to that the fact that Gonzaga plays at home games after everyone has gone to bed on the East Coast and it is a recipe for a rapid decline.

 

[DFW HOYA]

Georgetown could get off the mat immediately (or 2 years max -- similar timetable to Hurley rebuild for us) if they hired a coach with literally any sort of competency, which they could easily do thanks to their prestige, location, and resources. But they refuse to do so, because famous alumni reasons. They're only stuck by their own designs. And still, they recruited a 5* last year and brought in a really nice transfer class this year after going 0-18 (to be fair partially due to famous alumni reasons).

Sometimes you get off the mat, sometimes you become the mat. Older fans will remember when DePaul was a legitimate Top 10 team every year in the 1980's--they slipped and never recovered.

Georgetown was ranked as high as #5 in 2013 and averaged 13,178 a game in conference. They've won one post-season game since 2014 and announced an average of 5,326 a game last year. The season opener in two weeks is free admission for everyone and various free tickets are available for as many as seven home games. They're not giving away tickets at Creighton.

That 5* mentioned above walked after one season and is playing in the G-League. Only one player on the roster has been there more than two consecutive seasons.

Yet very little is written about it. For years, reporters didn't talk about about the slide out of respect and/or fear of John Thompson. Now, they don't care.

 

[ConnHuskBask]

Yes. If you told me Gonzaga becomes Xavier I would sign up for them joining the Big East tomorrow

I don't necessarily disagree - if that was going to be the case.

I'm just thinking how quickly they could become a Georgetown, Memphis, Pitt, or Butler.

I'm anti expansion in theory but if the argument is hey Few has another decade last max this tv deal out and see what happens then so be it.

 

[Iceman03]

Much has changed since DePaul was a factor in College Basketball, their history is strangely similar to ours. Ray Meyer retired, and Just As Joey was succeeding him, the major conferences sucked up most of the independents. DePaul had the bad luck of landing in what was I believe called the Metro at the time, which was a weak sister compared with the rest of the conferences. Same as Old Big East dies, Calhoun Retires, we wind up in the sad sack AAC, and Ollie couldn't pick up all of the pieces. Same with Georgetown, NBE is nothing close to OBE, so it's much harder to recruit top talent.

 

[Psolo12]

NBE is nothing close to OBE, so it's much harder to recruit top talent.

You people are INSUFFERABLE. Give it a rest, my god.

 

[superjohn]

I don't necessarily disagree - if that was going to be the case.

I'm just thinking how quickly they could become a Georgetown, Memphis, Pitt, or Butler.

I'm anti expansion in theory but if the argument is hey Few has another decade last max this tv deal out and see what happens then so be it.

I don't get all these posts of what they could become. Sure, they could start sucking if they make a horrible hire. That goes for just about every program who isn't UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, and Duke. Their chances of sucking are greatly reduced if they are a part of the Big East.

 

[NJHusky]

Not sure about that. Not at all.

I forget the exact details, but pretty sure it was winter of 2006? And I was up at like 3am or something like that while serving in Iraq to watch UConn play the Zags. Don’t think I would have done the same to play DePaul.

And DePaul was a better bball school when ?

The 80’s????

Yes in the 80s. And they have been bad for 20 years. My point is that things change and you can’t just look at their current situation. This isn’t like getting married. You are stuck with a conf mate until they decide to leave. What happens if Gonzaga falls off a cliff after Few (which isn’t unreasonable IMO..see Butler post Stevens)? My point is that geography is a major negative…you need a much bigger long term positive to make up for that.

 

[NJHusky]

I don't get all these posts of what they could become. Sure, they could start sucking if they make a horrible hire. That goes for just about every program who isn't UNC, Kentucky, Kansas, and Duke. Their chances of sucking are greatly reduced if they are a part of the Big East.

That’s sure been the case with Butler post Stevens

 

[ThabeetDown]

Georgetown could get off the mat immediately (or 2 years max -- similar timetable to Hurley rebuild for us) if they hired a coach with literally any sort of competency, which they could easily do thanks to their prestige, location, and resources. But they refuse to do so, because famous alumni reasons. They're only stuck by their own designs. And still, they recruited a 5* last year and brought in a really nice transfer class this year after going 0-18 (to be fair partially due to famous alumni reasons).

Basketball school NIL is a real thing, and Gonzaga is THE basketball school in the Pacific Northwest. Timme is making >$500k this year in NIL. KenPom subscriber "favorite programs" is a useful proxy for hardcore (online biased) fanbase engagement. They're currently 10th (we're 14th), tied with Villanova and Virginia. That would go down in a post-Few world as it likely includes some neutral frontrunners, but the comparison above made to Xavier which is 28th seems reasonable as a somewhat bad but not worst case scenario (X has missed 4 straight tournaments after getting a 1 seed). Gonzaga has a lot of really passionate fans that have been grown over the last 20 years and will continue to grow over the next Few years. It takes a lot to erode that completely. They likely can sustain 1 post-Few coach failure if they nail the 2nd, similar to how Ollie wounded but did not kill us.

Gonzaga will also have a much easier time in a post-Few world if they have the prestige and recruiting/resources boost of being in the Big East. In that way, the Big East invite itself is a buffer against decline (in a way that the AAC is not a strong enough league to do so for Wichita St). That's one reason why the Xavier comp makes a lot of sense.

This is the best pro-Gonzaga argument I've seen on this board. Ultimately, if FOX wants Gonzaga in the BE, Gonzaga will be in the BE.

With that said, I don't think you can overlook the travel issues -- they need to add someone else nearby (like USC bringing along UCLA) but there is no one else. The whole "travel buddy" format works well in scheduling -- Current P12 does it (Arizona/ASU together, USC/UCLA, Cal/Stanford, etc). playing on a Wed/Thurs and Sat/Sun. UConn/PC, St. John's/Hall, Nova/Gtown, Marquette/DePaul, Xavier/Butler -- Creighton is the odd man out (people have mentioned Wichita State, but hard pass).

If you can find someone that's close enough to Zaga (and Creighton) I'm all for it. Omaha to Spokane is 1300 miles, not feasible as travel buddies.

 

[superjohn]

That’s sure been the case with Butler post Stevens

Holtmann was good, I don't think anyone expected them to continue going to national title games, those were a fluke. I expect Thad Matta will get them back to making the tournament.