Back for this update after the weekend and Tues/Wed games. Back on the bubble: St. John's. Barely clinging to the bubble: Butler. Butler lost to 2 fellow bubble teams this past week and has hit the 14-loss (with BET loss) cliff that means they are likely excluded, but they're still on the BracketMatrix likely until the next update so I still put them on here. Quite a bad night for the Big East bubble on Wednesday. Providence and Seton Hall not only taking losses, but big margin losses that hurts their predictive metrics. Butler was also closer to the bubble than St. John's, so that was a worse result as well.
32. Villanova 16-12 (9-8 BE)
Power - #28, Resume - #63
Non-Conf SoS - #84
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-8 (1A 2-4), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech
Q2: 6-1
Top 2: 9-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: 6-8 (10-4 rest)
BracketMatrix - First Four out (#48)
Remaining schedule - @-Prov, @-SHU, H-Creighton
40. St. John's 17-12 (9-9)
Power - #31, Resume - #54
Non-Conf SoS - #184
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 7-9 (10-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 1 past Next four in (#52)
Remaining schedule - @-DePaul, H-GTown
56. Providence 18-10 (9-8 BE)
Power - #56, Resume - #48
Non-Conf SoS - #244
Away/Neutral: 4-9
Q1: 5-7 (2-5), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 8-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (12-0 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43)
Remaining schedule - H-Nova, @GTown, H-UConn
64. Seton Hall 18-10 (11-6)
Power - #58, Resume - #46
Non-Conf SoS - #240
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 5-6 (1A 2-5), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 3-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-Rutgers, N-USC
Wins Under Consideration: 7-6 (11-4 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#42)
Remaining schedule - @-UConn, H-Nova, H-DePaul
68. Butler 16-13 (7-11 BE)
Power - #72, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #87
Away/Neutral: 5-8
Q1: 3-11 (1A 2-6), @-Marquette, @-Creighton, N-Boise State
Q2: 4-2
Top 2: 7-13
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-12 (10-1 non)
BracketMatrix - Next Four Out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @DePaul, H-Xavier
For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.
21. Gonzaga 21-6 (12-2)
Power - #19, Resume - #49
Non-Conf SoS - #22
Away/Neutral: 9-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3), @-Kentucky
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (20-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last in (#44)
Not a great week for the Big East bubble outside of St. John's whose power rankings have really climbed to an advantageous level. Their resume certainly needs work but isn't that far off, unfortunately beating GTown and DePaul aren't going to really help. They need at least 1, maybe 2 wins in the BET depending on bid thieves. As I said above, Butler seems to be pretty much DOA with resume metrics in the 60s and no corresponding strong power metrics to make up for it (unlike Villanova). Not sure even if they get to BET final will they be able to get in, unless they get major scalps on the way. Seton Hall still looks good after their big loss to Creighton yesterday, but they need to avoid another blowout vs. UConn. Their game vs. Nova may end up being a defacto play-in game, thankfully for them it's at home. Nova has a couple other big opportunities, but with 12 losses and a few bad ones they really can't mess around. They probably need to go 2-1 and maybe win the 4/5 game in the BET to get in for sure. But if they go 3-0 or something and end up "clearing" the bubble, they could actually end up getting a single digit NCAA seed as their power levels would dictate. It won't be good for Providence's resume metrics to take 2 home losses, so they probably need 1 of UConn or Villanova plus GTown and then to not take a bad loss in the BET.
32. Villanova 16-12 (9-8 BE)
Power - #28, Resume - #63
Non-Conf SoS - #84
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-8 (1A 2-4), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech
Q2: 6-1
Top 2: 9-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: 6-8 (10-4 rest)
BracketMatrix - First Four out (#48)
Remaining schedule - @-Prov, @-SHU, H-Creighton
40. St. John's 17-12 (9-9)
Power - #31, Resume - #54
Non-Conf SoS - #184
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 7-9 (10-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 1 past Next four in (#52)
Remaining schedule - @-DePaul, H-GTown
56. Providence 18-10 (9-8 BE)
Power - #56, Resume - #48
Non-Conf SoS - #244
Away/Neutral: 4-9
Q1: 5-7 (2-5), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 8-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (12-0 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43)
Remaining schedule - H-Nova, @GTown, H-UConn
64. Seton Hall 18-10 (11-6)
Power - #58, Resume - #46
Non-Conf SoS - #240
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 5-6 (1A 2-5), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 3-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-Rutgers, N-USC
Wins Under Consideration: 7-6 (11-4 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#42)
Remaining schedule - @-UConn, H-Nova, H-DePaul
68. Butler 16-13 (7-11 BE)
Power - #72, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #87
Away/Neutral: 5-8
Q1: 3-11 (1A 2-6), @-Marquette, @-Creighton, N-Boise State
Q2: 4-2
Top 2: 7-13
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-12 (10-1 non)
BracketMatrix - Next Four Out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @DePaul, H-Xavier
For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.
21. Gonzaga 21-6 (12-2)
Power - #19, Resume - #49
Non-Conf SoS - #22
Away/Neutral: 9-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3), @-Kentucky
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (20-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last in (#44)
Not a great week for the Big East bubble outside of St. John's whose power rankings have really climbed to an advantageous level. Their resume certainly needs work but isn't that far off, unfortunately beating GTown and DePaul aren't going to really help. They need at least 1, maybe 2 wins in the BET depending on bid thieves. As I said above, Butler seems to be pretty much DOA with resume metrics in the 60s and no corresponding strong power metrics to make up for it (unlike Villanova). Not sure even if they get to BET final will they be able to get in, unless they get major scalps on the way. Seton Hall still looks good after their big loss to Creighton yesterday, but they need to avoid another blowout vs. UConn. Their game vs. Nova may end up being a defacto play-in game, thankfully for them it's at home. Nova has a couple other big opportunities, but with 12 losses and a few bad ones they really can't mess around. They probably need to go 2-1 and maybe win the 4/5 game in the BET to get in for sure. But if they go 3-0 or something and end up "clearing" the bubble, they could actually end up getting a single digit NCAA seed as their power levels would dictate. It won't be good for Providence's resume metrics to take 2 home losses, so they probably need 1 of UConn or Villanova plus GTown and then to not take a bad loss in the BET.