BE Bubble Update (Update 2/29/24)

[auror]

Back for this update after the weekend and Tues/Wed games. Back on the bubble: St. John's. Barely clinging to the bubble: Butler. Butler lost to 2 fellow bubble teams this past week and has hit the 14-loss (with BET loss) cliff that means they are likely excluded, but they're still on the BracketMatrix likely until the next update so I still put them on here. Quite a bad night for the Big East bubble on Wednesday. Providence and Seton Hall not only taking losses, but big margin losses that hurts their predictive metrics. Butler was also closer to the bubble than St. John's, so that was a worse result as well.

32. Villanova 16-12 (9-8 BE)
Power - #28, Resume - #63
Non-Conf SoS - #84
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-8 (1A 2-4), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech
Q2: 6-1
Top 2: 9-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: 6-8 (10-4 rest)
BracketMatrix - First Four out (#48)
Remaining schedule - @-Prov, @-SHU, H-Creighton

40. St. John's 17-12 (9-9)
Power - #31, Resume - #54
Non-Conf SoS - #184
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 7-9 (10-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 1 past Next four in (#52)
Remaining schedule - @-DePaul, H-GTown

56. Providence 18-10 (9-8 BE)
Power - #56, Resume - #48
Non-Conf SoS - #244
Away/Neutral: 4-9
Q1: 5-7 (2-5), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 8-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (12-0 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43)
Remaining schedule - H-Nova, @GTown, H-UConn

64. Seton Hall 18-10 (11-6)
Power - #58, Resume - #46
Non-Conf SoS - #240
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 5-6 (1A 2-5), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 3-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-Rutgers, N-USC
Wins Under Consideration: 7-6 (11-4 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#42)
Remaining schedule - @-UConn, H-Nova, H-DePaul

68. Butler 16-13 (7-11 BE)
Power - #72, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #87
Away/Neutral: 5-8
Q1: 3-11 (1A 2-6), @-Marquette, @-Creighton, N-Boise State
Q2: 4-2
Top 2: 7-13
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-12 (10-1 non)
BracketMatrix - Next Four Out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @DePaul, H-Xavier

For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.
21. Gonzaga 21-6 (12-2)
Power - #19, Resume - #49
Non-Conf SoS - #22
Away/Neutral: 9-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3), @-Kentucky
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (20-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last in (#44)

Not a great week for the Big East bubble outside of St. John's whose power rankings have really climbed to an advantageous level. Their resume certainly needs work but isn't that far off, unfortunately beating GTown and DePaul aren't going to really help. They need at least 1, maybe 2 wins in the BET depending on bid thieves. As I said above, Butler seems to be pretty much DOA with resume metrics in the 60s and no corresponding strong power metrics to make up for it (unlike Villanova). Not sure even if they get to BET final will they be able to get in, unless they get major scalps on the way. Seton Hall still looks good after their big loss to Creighton yesterday, but they need to avoid another blowout vs. UConn. Their game vs. Nova may end up being a defacto play-in game, thankfully for them it's at home. Nova has a couple other big opportunities, but with 12 losses and a few bad ones they really can't mess around. They probably need to go 2-1 and maybe win the 4/5 game in the BET to get in for sure. But if they go 3-0 or something and end up "clearing" the bubble, they could actually end up getting a single digit NCAA seed as their power levels would dictate. It won't be good for Providence's resume metrics to take 2 home losses, so they probably need 1 of UConn or Villanova plus GTown and then to not take a bad loss in the BET.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Interesting. Lots of losses for Nova, yet feels like they are a tournament team almost regardless and it helps them to have Jay Wright in the studio. St. John's seems more like they need to earn their way in. Pitino factor in their favor if on the bubble and the selection committee gets subjective.

But feels like the BE is going to get screwed this year for parity. Seton Hall vs Nova as a play-in could be correct unless the loser somehow makes a 2-game BE tourney run.

 

[MJ1]

The Big East probably only gets 4 teams in this year. Between Nova, St. John’s, PC, and the Hall, one will come out of the pack with a bid. Although the rule that has St. John’s at the BET in the Garden as a home team really hurts there chance for a Quad 1 win, the margin is much greater if it was considered a neutral Court game.

 

[Hurleyman216]

Those are some scary teams to be facing on the 11 seed line. Not saying they are great teams but certainly have the firepower to make a run to the sweet 16 or further. To me, Nova and St. John’s pass the eye test a bit more than Seton Hall, PC or Butler. I wonder how good Nova would be if Thad Matta were coaching them instead of Butler.

 

[Dibbie]

The Big East probably only gets 4 teams in this year. Between Nova, St. John’s, PC, and the Hall, one will come out of the pack with a bid. Although the rule that has St. John’s at the BET in the Garden as a home team really hurts there chance for a Quad 1 win, the margin is much greater if it was considered a neutral Court game.

I said this to my buddy, who said BE was going to get 6 bids and was willing to put $100. I’m not much of a gambler, but had to take that bet.

 

[navery12]

My money is still on 6 teams getting in, and would be shocked if there's less than 5. Besides the obvious 3, I think St John's and Seton Hall are pretty safe barring a collapse over the last 2 weeks. And then gonna come down to Nova or Providence taking care of business and hopefully not cancelling each other's progress out

 

[Tenspro2002]

As usual, we are going to be Providence's Super Bowl, and this time their season will be on the line.

 

[auror]

As usual, we are going to be Providence's Super Bowl, and this time their season will be on the line.

I really don't want to need that win and getting a win at Marquette is going to be extremely difficult with how they are playing these last 2 months. The Seton Hall game is absolutely massive. Pretty glad we have a full week to rest and prep.

 

[ec33]

Providence and Seton Hall don't have to do anything special to get to 20 wins. Beat Villanova at home and take advantage of the DePaul/Georgetown free W. Then the UConn result would just be bonus points.

St. John's just needs to take the free W's (they should be able to avoid the 4/5 matchup) until they have to face an actual quality opponent.

That makes six with 20+ wins if they don't do anything dumb and if Villanova doesn't play the spoiler. Depending on the math that should be good, but I would want to win a BET QF (or beat UConn) if I were them in order to feel comfortable.

 

[auror]

Back for this update after the weekend and Tues/Wed games. Back on the bubble: St. John's. Barely clinging to the bubble: Butler. Butler lost to 2 fellow bubble teams this past week and has hit the 14-loss (with BET loss) cliff that means they are likely excluded, but they're still on the BracketMatrix likely until the next update so I still put them on here. Quite a bad night for the Big East bubble on Wednesday. Providence and Seton Hall not only taking losses, but big margin losses that hurts their predictive metrics. Butler was also closer to the bubble than St. John's, so that was a worse result as well.

32. Villanova 16-12 (9-8 BE)
Power - #28, Resume - #63
Non-Conf SoS - #84
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-8 (1A 2-4), N-North Carolina, @-Creighton, N-Texas Tech
Q2: 6-1
Top 2: 9-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 3, H-St. Joe's, N-Drexel, @-Penn
Wins Under Consideration: 6-8 (10-4 rest)
BracketMatrix - First Four out (#48)
Remaining schedule - @-Prov, @-SHU, H-Creighton

40. St. John's 17-12 (9-9)
Power - #31, Resume - #54
Non-Conf SoS - #184
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 3-9 (1A 2-6), H-Creighton, @-Villanova @-Butler
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 9-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 1, H-Michigan
Wins Under Consideration: 7-9 (10-3 non)
BracketMatrix - 1 past Next four in (#52)
Remaining schedule - @-DePaul, H-GTown

56. Providence 18-10 (9-8 BE)
Power - #56, Resume - #48
Non-Conf SoS - #244
Away/Neutral: 4-9
Q1: 5-7 (2-5), H-Marquette, H-Creighton, H-Wisconsin, @-Seton Hall, @-Xavier
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 8-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (12-0 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#43)
Remaining schedule - H-Nova, @GTown, H-UConn

64. Seton Hall 18-10 (11-6)
Power - #58, Resume - #46
Non-Conf SoS - #240
Away/Neutral: 6-8
Q1: 5-6 (1A 2-5), H-UConn, H-Marquette, @-St. John's, @-Providence, @-Butler
Q2: 3-2
Top 2: 8-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 2, H-Rutgers, N-USC
Wins Under Consideration: 7-6 (11-4 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last four in (#42)
Remaining schedule - @-UConn, H-Nova, H-DePaul

68. Butler 16-13 (7-11 BE)
Power - #72, Resume - #65
Non-Conf SoS - #87
Away/Neutral: 5-8
Q1: 3-11 (1A 2-6), @-Marquette, @-Creighton, N-Boise State
Q2: 4-2
Top 2: 7-13
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-12 (10-1 non)
BracketMatrix - Next Four Out (#50)
Remaining schedule - @DePaul, H-Xavier

For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.
21. Gonzaga 21-6 (12-2)
Power - #19, Resume - #49
Non-Conf SoS - #22
Away/Neutral: 9-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3), @-Kentucky
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (20-2 non)
BracketMatrix - Last in (#44)

Not a great week for the Big East bubble outside of St. John's whose power rankings have really climbed to an advantageous level. Their resume certainly needs work but isn't that far off, unfortunately beating GTown and DePaul aren't going to really help. They need at least 1, maybe 2 wins in the BET depending on bid thieves. As I said above, Butler seems to be pretty much DOA with resume metrics in the 60s and no corresponding strong power metrics to make up for it (unlike Villanova). Not sure even if they get to BET final will they be able to get in, unless they get major scalps on the way. Seton Hall still looks good after their big loss to Creighton yesterday, but they need to avoid another blowout vs. UConn. Their game vs. Nova may end up being a defacto play-in game, thankfully for them it's at home. Nova has a couple other big opportunities, but with 12 losses and a few bad ones they really can't mess around. They probably need to go 2-1 and maybe win the 4/5 game in the BET to get in for sure. But if they go 3-0 or something and end up "clearing" the bubble, they could actually end up getting a single digit NCAA seed as their power levels would dictate. It won't be good for Providence's resume metrics to take 2 home losses, so they probably need 1 of UConn or Villanova plus GTown and then to not take a bad loss in the BET.

Bracket Matrix updated yesterday. Seton Hall (#41) and Providence (#43) still 11s, Gonzaga still the last team in, and Villanova (#46) still first four out. St. John's moved up into last four out (#48) up 4 spots, in 13% of brackets. Butler still next four out (#51) only down 1 spot.

 

[shizzle787]

As usual, we are going to be Providence's Super Bowl, and this time their season will be on the line.

If they win the two preceding games, they are in with 20 wins. Ours would be a cherry on top for them.

 

[Connecticut13]

Seton Hall has wins against us and Marquette. I don't think any other bubble teams have wins like that on their resume. In my opinion, they are most definitely in - though they should close the regular season 2-1 to be safe. That would leave them 20-11 overall and 13-7 in conference. It would be ridiculous to leave them out with that kind of in-conference record.

Providence in my opinion should also be in. Like Seton Hall, they have quality wins. They've beaten Marquette and Creighton -- and I'm sure they'll give us a tough time at their house. If they close out the regular season 2-1, that leaves them also 20-11 overall, but with an 11-9 in conference record. Still should be good enough for an 11 seed.

The question marks are Villanova and St. Johns (Butler is out barring a big run). Villanova has a very difficult schedule to end the season - at Providence, at Seton Hall and home vs. Creighton. I can see them losing all three - so I think they are "out". But those games also present an opportunity for them to sneak in (perhaps at Seton Hall or Providence's expense).

I think St. Johns winds up right on the bubble. They should close out the season 2-0 with DePaul and Georgetown left. That will put them at 19-12 overall and 11-9 in the conference - though with less quality wins (only top 25 win is Creighton). They'll need to win at least one in the Big East Tournament.

Overall -- I'd guess UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Seton Hall and Providence - with St. Johns one of the last four out.

 

[superjohn]

My money is still on 6 teams getting in, and would be shocked if there's less than 5. Besides the obvious 3, I think St John's and Seton Hall are pretty safe barring a collapse over the last 2 weeks. And then gonna come down to Nova or Providence taking care of business and hopefully not cancelling each other's progress out

Agreed

 

[AZHuskiePop]

I really don't want to need that win and getting a win at Marquette is going to be extremely difficult with how they are playing these last 2 months. The Seton Hall game is absolutely massive. Pretty glad we have a full week to rest and prep.

We have to win at home and avenge that ugly loss.
Then hopefully Marquette falls at Creighton
A meaningless , to us , PC game is a great outcome. I still want to win but all the pressure is on them.

 

[shizzle787]

Ultimately, I think Seton Hall, Providence, and St. John's get in. Two of them (probably the latter two) end up playing in the First Four.

 

[auror]

 

[ec33]

If that happens UConn would be a two seed going into the BET.

 

[NJHusky]

Anyone have any thoughts on BE teams with just 1 more day of games? Does Prov have a chance without a win this weekend?

Seems like SH should be in....St John, Nova, Prov, Butler...???

What's the best case scenario for the league?

thx

 

[navery12]

Anyone have any thoughts on BE teams with just 1 more day of games? Does Prov have a chance without a win this weekend?

Seems like SH should be in....St John, Nova, Prov, Butler...???

What's the best case scenario for the league?

thx

Seton Hall - Should be in unless they somehow lose to the HS team posing as DePaul this weekend. 20 wins minimum should get them in

St John's - probably needs to beat Seton Hall in the 4/5 game to feel really safe. 19 wins (assuming a Georgetown win) and their advanced metrics is probably enough but they'd be sweating it out on selection Sunday. Ideal outcome here for maximizing bids for the BE would be St John's over Seton Hall

Nova - They're gonna need to either beat Creighton this weekend or Creighton/Marquette in the 3/6 game of the BE tournament. They'll get a nice easy win against DePaul in between to pad the win total but hard to see an 18 win Nova team with some bad losses getting in.

Providence - probably needs to either win this weekend or take down whoever ends up in the 2/7 game between Creighton and Marquette. They'll have a win over Georgetown in between to get them to 20, but probably need 1 more signature win to get back into the conversation

Butler - they're done, need to win the BE tournament

Best case is still probably 6 bids with 7 teams still alive, but it'll likely take knocking Marquette and Creighton down a seed line or two to get there, so personal preference what's better for the BE

 

[auror]

I'll probably do an update tonight to this tonight.

 

[shizzle787]

Anyone have any thoughts on BE teams with just 1 more day of games? Does Prov have a chance without a win this weekend?

Seems like SH should be in....St John, Nova, Prov, Butler...???

What's the best case scenario for the league?

thx

Best case is 8 (but would take a mini miracle).

How we get there:

Seton Hall beats DePaul (90%)
Providence wins two games in BET (30%)
St. John’s beats Georgetown (80%)
Villanova beats Creighton and wins one game in BET (50%)
Butler wins three games in BET (5%)

 

[InTheRed]

We will be fortunate to get 5 teams unless the big east tournament turns into a final that has something like the 5 and 6 seed in it. If the big east tournament has all favorites winning, we are absolutely maxed out at 5 but could see only 4 as well depending on how other bubble teams and bid stealers do.

 

[shizzle787]

We will be fortunate to get 5 teams unless the big east tournament turns into a final that has something like the 5 and 6 seed in it. If the big east tournament has all favorites winning, we are absolutely maxed out at 5 but could see only 4 as well depending on how other bubble teams and bid stealers do.

St. John's, Seton Hall, and Providence will all clinch a bid if they win Saturday. We will likely go into the BET with 5 bids locked and three more needing at least one win (Nova, Providence, and Butler).

 

[freescooter]

St. John's, Seton Hall, and Providence will all clinch a bid if they win Saturday. We will likely go into the BET with 5 bids locked and three more needing at least one win (Nova, Providence, and Butler).

This is why they need to look at reducing the tournament, not expanding it. I think 48 would be good. With a limit on bids per league, or at least a standard ( over .500 overall and in conference plus finish in the top half.). Good grief none of these teams is anything better than mediocre. St John’s is awful. If they give bids to Villanova and Butler they might as well invite DePaul too. I admit I despise crappy teams from major conferences getting bids over good mid-majors. They are way more fun and much more deserving than teams that had lousy seasons. Teams should have to earn their place not get awarded one because of their league.

 

[shizzle787]

This is why they need to look at reducing the tournament, not expanding it. I think 48 would be good. With a limit on bids per league, or at least a standard ( over .500 overall and in conference plus finish in the top half.). Good grief none of these teams is anything better than mediocre. St John’s is awful. If they give bids to Villanova and Butler they might as well invite DePaul too. I admit I despise crappy teams from major conferences getting bids over good mid-majors. They are way more fun and much more deserving than teams that had lousy seasons. Teams should have to earn their place not get awarded one because of their league.

You conveniently ignore SOS. Indiana State isn’t going 26-5 in the Big East.