BE Bubble (update 02/22/24)

[auror]

Back for this update after the weekend and Tues/Wed games. Off the bubble: St. John's and Xavier. Resume metrics just not good enough and St John's only 1 chance for meaningful win remaining. Xavier has a few, but they're really behind the eight ball with 13 losses and only 2 quad 1 wins and 2 bad losses.

33. Villanova 15-11 (8-7 BE)
Power - #28, Resume - #60
Non-Conf SoS - #84
Away/Neutral: 6-7
Q1: 3-6 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 9-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 3
Wins Under Consideration: 7-4 (6-6 rest)
BracketMatrix - First Four out (#48)
Remaining schedule - @ UConn, GTown, @ Prov, @SHU, Creighton

61. Butler 15-11 (7-9 BE)
Power - #62, Resume - #56
Non-Conf SoS - #85
Away/Neutral: 5-7
Q1: 4-10 (1A 2-6)
Q2: 3-1
Top 2: 7-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (9-1 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed (#42)
Remaining schedule - @SHU, St. John's, @DePaul, Xavier

55. Providence 18-9 (9-7 BE)
Power - #52, Resume - #45
Non-Conf SoS - #242
Away/Neutral: 4-7
Q1: 5-6 (2-4)
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 8-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 5-6 (13-3 non)
BracketMatrix - First team out (#46)
Remaining schedule - @Marq, Nova, @GTown, UConn

65. Seton Hall 17-9 (10-5)
Power - #56, Resume - #49
Non-Conf SoS - #237
Away/Neutral: 6-6
Q1: 5-5 (1A 2-4)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 7-7
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
Wins Under Consideration: 4-5 (13-4 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last team in (#45)
Remaining schedule - Butler, @ Creighton, @ UConn, Nova, DePaul

For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.

22. Gonzaga 15-9 (4-7 B12)
Power - #19, Resume - #55
Non-Conf SoS - #24
Away/Neutral: 8-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3)
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (14-5 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, 2nd Last team in (#44)

Villanova continues to have the most bizarre resume. They have a better record against teams under consideration than they do against non-tournament teams and their power metrics are getting really good. It's possible our home game against them will move to Q1. Their fate will likely be determined by how the committee treats bad losses vs. top 2 quads. Providence and Seton Hall have been improving their resumes and are looking decent right now, but they need to keep it up. Butler is moving the wrong direction. BracketMatrix still had them somewhat safely in as of last night, but looking at the resumes I'd have them behind both Providence and Seton Hall.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

I am sticking by my theory that the Big East bubble schools are picking the exact game outcomes to guarantee that none of them get into the tournament.

Providence over Xavier is one of the few games in the last two weeks where the team in more trouble of getting in hasn't beaten the team in better shape of getting in. Maybe its a conspiracy. More likely they are all so mediocre that they don't deserve a bid and the game outcomes are reaching the correct conclusion about their quality as tournament teams.

 

[HuskyHawk]

Back for this update after the weekend and Tues/Wed games. Off the bubble: St. John's and Xavier. Resume metrics just not good enough and St John's only 1 chance for meaningful win remaining. Xavier has a few, but they're really behind the eight ball with 13 losses and only 2 quad 1 wins and 2 bad losses.

33. Villanova 15-11 (8-7 BE)
Power - #28, Resume - #60
Non-Conf SoS - #84
Away/Neutral: 6-7
Q1: 3-6 (1A 2-3)
Q2: 6-2
Top 2: 9-8
Q3+Q4 losses: 3
Wins Under Consideration: 7-4 (6-6 rest)
BracketMatrix - First Four out (#48)
Remaining schedule - @ UConn, GTown, @ Prov, @SHU, Creighton

61. Butler 15-11 (7-9 BE)
Power - #62, Resume - #56
Non-Conf SoS - #85
Away/Neutral: 5-7
Q1: 4-10 (1A 2-6)
Q2: 3-1
Top 2: 7-11
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 6-10 (9-1 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed (#42)
Remaining schedule - @SHU, St. John's, @DePaul, Xavier

55. Providence 18-9 (9-7 BE)
Power - #52, Resume - #45
Non-Conf SoS - #242
Away/Neutral: 4-7
Q1: 5-6 (2-4)
Q2: 3-3
Top 2: 8-9
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 5-6 (13-3 non)
BracketMatrix - First team out (#46)
Remaining schedule - @Marq, Nova, @GTown, UConn

65. Seton Hall 17-9 (10-5)
Power - #56, Resume - #49
Non-Conf SoS - #237
Away/Neutral: 6-6
Q1: 5-5 (1A 2-4)
Q2: 2-2
Top 2: 7-7
Q3+Q4 losses: 2
Wins Under Consideration: 4-5 (13-4 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, Last team in (#45)
Remaining schedule - Butler, @ Creighton, @ UConn, Nova, DePaul

For comparison, here's the last non-Big East team currently in the field by BracketMatrix.

22. Gonzaga 15-9 (4-7 B12)
Power - #19, Resume - #55
Non-Conf SoS - #24
Away/Neutral: 8-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3)
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (14-5 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, 2nd Last team in (#44)

Villanova continues to have the most bizarre resume. They have a better record against teams under consideration than they do against non-tournament teams and their power metrics are getting really good. It's possible our home game against them will move to Q1. Their fate will likely be determined by how the committee treats bad losses vs. top 2 quads. Providence and Seton Hall have been improving their resumes and are looking decent right now, but they need to keep it up. Butler is moving the wrong direction. BracketMatrix still had them somewhat safely in as of last night, but looking at the resumes I'd have them behind both Providence and Seton Hall.

PC has a better resume than Gonzaga as I'm looking at it. Nova is bizarre with the 3 Q3 losses.

 

[shizzle787]

The Big East still has an opportunity for 8 bids.

UConn, Creighton, and Marquette are locks.

Providence needs two more wins. I think they will get them (Villanova, @ Georgetown)

Seton Hall needs two more wins. I think they will get them and then some (Butler, Villanova, DePaul all at home)

Butler needs three more wins. I think they will get them (St. John's, @DePaul, Xavier)

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------

St. John's need four more win. This will be close (Creighton, @DePaul, Georgetown, one game in BET)

Villanova may only need three more wins but four is a lock. This will be close (Georgetown, Creighton, one or two in the BET).

If I were betting, I think the Big East gets six teams (UConn, Marquette, Creighton, Providence, Seton Hall, and Butler).

 

[freescooter]

I know I am alone in this, but mediocre msjor conference teams simply don’t deserve bids. I don’t care what the metrics say. Your sos will be better and you’ll have more chances at Q1 and Q2 wins just because you play more. Sometimes those are marginally craptastic teams too. I would much prefer good mid-majors. Those are way more fun to watch in the tournament. And since few 10-11-12 seeds are going anywhere anyway, I’d rather watch mid-majors who play hard and desperately want to be there than a bunch of entitled glorified mid-majors who don’t think it’s important to have winning programs. The Scooter Selection rules would be:
1. Mid-msjor RS champs who lose in league tournaments get priority. Make the RS great again.
2. Majors who finish below .500 in conference are out. Again, make the regular season mean something.
4. Teams that finish in the second division of their conferences are out.
5. Play in games are reserved for the last 8 in, not the teams that get an auto bid. They get the respect of having the chance to play in the main event. After all they earned it unlike some team that couldn’t win its conference, or at least in the upper half.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

22. Gonzaga 15-9 (4-7 B12)

Breaking some realignment news?

I thought Butler was going to end up safely in after our game a few weeks back. They needed to get either Creighton or Marquette at home and didn't.

Not a great sign to be the only BE team on the list that is not trending up

 

[auror]

Breaking some realignment news?

I thought Butler was going to end up safely in after our game a few weeks back. They needed to get either Creighton or Marquette at home and didn't.

Not a great sign to be the only BE team on the list that is not trending up

Lol had Cincinnati there last week and forgot to edit that part.

 

[auror]

Yeah screwed this up a bit. Should be this:

22. Gonzaga 20-6 (10-2 WCC)
Power - #19, Resume - #55
Non-Conf SoS - #24
Away/Neutral: 8-4
Q1: 1-5 (1A 1-3)
Q2: 2-1
Top 2: 3-6
Q3+Q4 losses: 0
Wins Under Consideration: 1-4 (19-2 non)
BracketMatrix - 11 seed, 2nd Last team in (#44)

 

[shizzle787]

Did a historical analysis on wins on Selection Sunday needed to make the field for all Big East teams since 13/14 (first year of New Big East). I did not include the 19/20 or 20/21 seasons due to COVID and I am not counting auto bids.

21 wins: Every Big East team with at least 21 wins on Selection Sunday has made the field.
20 wins: Big East teams with exactly 20 wins have gone dancing 33 out of 35 times (St. John's in 13/14 and Marquette in 15/16 are the two exceptions)
19 wins: Big East teams with exactly 19 wins have gone dancing 2 out of 4 times (Marquette in 17/18 and Georgetown in 18/19 are the two exceptions)
18 wins: potential at-large Big East teams with exactly 18 wins have never gone dancing (0-6)

To me this is clear data:
21 wins is a lock
20 wins and you are in (barring something unforeseen)
19 wins is 50/50
18 or less wins and you are out

 

[shizzle787]

Did a historical analysis on wins on Selection Sunday needed to make the field for all Big East teams since 13/14 (first year of New Big East). I did not include the 19/20 or 20/21 seasons due to COVID and I am not counting auto bids.

21 wins: Every Big East team with at least 21 wins on Selection Sunday has made the field.
20 wins: Big East teams with exactly 20 wins have gone dancing 33 out of 35 times (St. John's in 13/14 and Marquette in 15/16 are the two exceptions)
19 wins: Big East teams with exactly 19 wins have gone dancing 2 out of 4 times (Marquette in 17/18 and Georgetown in 18/19 are the two exceptions)
18 wins: potential at-large Big East teams with exactly 18 wins have never gone dancing (0-6)

To me this is clear data:
21 wins is a lock
20 wins and you are in (barring something unforeseen)
19 wins is 50/50
18 or less wins and you are out

*teams with at least 20 wins have gone dancing 33/35 times

 

[gsmooth]

Did a historical analysis on wins on Selection Sunday needed to make the field for all Big East teams since 13/14 (first year of New Big East). I did not include the 19/20 or 20/21 seasons due to COVID and I am not counting auto bids.

21 wins: Every Big East team with at least 21 wins on Selection Sunday has made the field.
20 wins: Big East teams with exactly 20 wins have gone dancing 33 out of 35 times (St. John's in 13/14 and Marquette in 15/16 are the two exceptions)
19 wins: Big East teams with exactly 19 wins have gone dancing 2 out of 4 times (Marquette in 17/18 and Georgetown in 18/19 are the two exceptions)
18 wins: potential at-large Big East teams with exactly 18 wins have never gone dancing (0-6)

To me this is clear data:
21 wins is a lock
20 wins and you are in (barring something unforeseen)
19 wins is 50/50
18 or less wins and you are out

Do these records include the Big East tournament as well?

 

[shizzle787]

Do these records include the Big East tournament as well?

Yes. These are on win totals on Selection Sunday.

 

[willie99]

The whole conference is seemingly on the bubble

Started at 6, but it's dwindling quickly . X has played itself off the bubble, and St John's is on life support

Down to PeeCee, Nova, Hall & Butler. And beating one of the cellar dwellers on Wednesday in the BET ain't going to help anyone. The 8/9 matchup might help someone, might The 7/10 and 6/11 games can only hurt

 

[nelsonmuntz]

One of the things that Big East teams have going for them is that some of the teams immediately above them in NET (Princeton, McNeese, Grand Canyon, James Madison) are likely getting automatic bids.

The other major conference bubble teams like Northwestern and Pitt are a real problem though.

Not in the Big East, but UConn opponent Gonzaga, at #22 in NET with 4 of its 6 losses to top 20 NET opponents, does not look like a bubble team as long as they don't do anything stupid the rest of the way. They could get a 5 or 6 seed if they win out.

 

[SwingDog]

Breaking some realignment news?

I thought Butler was going to end up safely in after our game a few weeks back. They needed to get either Creighton or Marquette at home and didn't.

Not a great sign to be the only BE team on the list that is not trending up

I agree, and I thought at one point Xavier had a shot too but they've had a number of close losses which puts them on the outside looking in. But Butler couldn't trend up without one of the other bubble teams trending down.

 

[Tenspro2002]

Let's pop some bubbles over the next few weeks.

 

[HooperScooper]

This is an ESPN+ article about bubble teams. It's mostly about the Big East having a lot of bubble teams. They have UConn, Marquette, and Creighton as locks. PC, Seton Hall, Butler, Villanova and St. John's as having work to do.

Each Selection Sunday, the NCAA releases both a seed list for Nos. 1 to 68 and, in recent years, a ranked listing of the first four teams that didn't make the field. The Big East is the one major conference that has been almost entirely missing at the heart of the bubble over that time.

The league has put just one team on either the "Last Four In" or "First Four Out" lists since the tournament was canceled in 2020. Providence was one of the last four at-large teams to make the field last year. The Friars' close call a year ago notwithstanding, bubble drama has avoided the Big East in the 2020s.

Until now. On Selection Sunday 2024, the Big East could flood the zone at the cut line. Providence, Butler and Seton Hall have all been mainstays in the "Work to do" category throughout February. At the same time, Villanova, St. John's and Xavier have either joined all of the above in "Work to do" or have dropped out and are doing their best to return.

Bubble Watch: Florida Atlantic in! Indiana State, who knows? So much in the air

In a span of 48 hours, bid thieves changed everything for the 2024 field. March, it seems, came early, and will have a new quartet of teams on edge.

www.espn.com

Alternate access:

Bubble Watch 2024: Brace yourself for NCAA tournament drama​