Baylor 2013-14 prospects

[doggydaddy]

Similar to Notre Dame in 2012-13, Baylor loses several starters and returns an all-American point guard. That is where the similarities end.

ND returned a terrific player in McBride, and an improved Ochonwa with her time on the Canadian team contributing to that improvement. Those two along with Diggins and the freshman Loyd provided a solid core of players to help them exceed expectations of most people.

Baylor has a total different situation. First, lets look at who they lose. Griner, player of the year, dominant force on defense and leading scorer on the team by 11 points per game. Three other starters in Hayden, Madden and Pope with 6 man, Williams off the bench. 5 of the top 6 in scoring and rebounding.

That's 68% of the rebounds, 71% of the scoring. Not to mention the blocked shots by Griner and the tough defense that Madden and Hayden provided.

I don't think there is a team in the country that losses as much as Baylor has.

So, can they replace these points and rebounds? Doubtful. They added a nice player in Small to improve their recruiting class for 2013, it's hard to imagine any of the other players being more than role players off the bench at best their freshman year. So, it will be up to the returning players to make up those lost points and rebounds.

Sims is a given. A certain AA, she will have to take on more scoring. She averaged 12 ppg and will need to score closer to 18. Can she do it when the defense doesn't have Griner to worry about?

Who will be the other starters? Prince is going to start. She has some nice skills, but she struggled with her shooting for most of the season. She shot 39% from the field, 28% on 3's and 56% on ft's. she will has to make big improvements on those numbers. And does she start at the 3 or 4?

I have no idea who else might start and that shows the big problem Baylor has. No clear cut rotation. Their two bigs, Higgins and Abuke have little playing time. Same with the wings, Chandler and Fuqua. MacKenzie has the experience, but not the skill level to play starter minutes against good teams. Johnson had her moments and might start, but does that move her or Sims to the 2?

I have seen a few early polls and opinions with Baylor still top 10. I can see them scoring 10 less points a game and giving up 10 more points a game. That barley keeps them in the top 25.

 

[UcMiami]

DD - Interesting post and I my only quibble would that the last sentence is a bit negative - while they have lost a lot, they still have a talented roster and should be in contention for top 10.
My take - college ball starts with the PG and Baylor absolutely has that covered. A good PG can get the best out of the whole roster and I expect that to happen.
I do think it will be very interesting to see how Baylor transitions from the Griner era. With a player like BG, everything the team did was centered on her to the detriment of the other players personal games. Griner was the great strength and as the season ending loss showed also the great weakness of the team. Regardless of the 'tactics' involved, when she was taken out of her comfort zone the team struggled.
I think in a strange way not having BG will be 'freeing' for everyone on the team, and it could result in some exciting basketball. In that regard - the loss of the other seniors could be a bigger blow than the loss of BG.
Hope some of our TX visitors comment.

 

[UConnCat]

Before the 2012-2013 season we were told that Higgins would be part of the rotation and Chandler would have a break-out year. Maybe both will happen in the upcoming season.

Sims and Prince will have to carry a lot of the offensive load.

 

[doggydaddy]

they still have a talented roster and should be in contention for top 10.

Who?

 

[doggydaddy]

Before the 2012-2013 season we were told that Higgins would be part of the rotation and Chandler would have a break-out year. Maybe both will happen in the upcoming season.

Sims and Prince will have to carry a lot of the offensive load.

They lost 56 ppg. It will take a lot more than Prince and Sims. Sims could add 6 ppg to her average and Prince certainly has the skills to score double digits. I don't think anyone else has shown the skills necessary to cover the other 40-50 ppg.

 

[winlots]

Similar to Notre Dame in 2012-13, Baylor loses several starters and returns an all-American point guard. That is where the similarities end.

ND returned a terrific player in McBride, and an improved Ochonwa with her time on the Canadian team contributing to that improvement. Those two along with Diggins and the freshman Loyd provided a solid core of players to help them exceed expectations of most people.

Baylor has a total different situation. First, lets look at who they lose. Griner, player of the year, dominant force on defense and leading scorer on the team by 11 points per game. Three other starters in Hayden, Madden and Pope with 6 man, Williams off the bench. 5 of the top 6 in scoring and rebounding.

That's 68% of the rebounds, 71% of the scoring. Not to mention the blocked shots by Griner and the tough defense that Madden and Hayden provided.

I don't think there is a team in the country that losses as much as Baylor has.

So, can they replace these points and rebounds? Doubtful. They added a nice player in Small to improve their recruiting class for 2013, it's hard to imagine any of the other players being more than role players off the bench at best their freshman year. So, it will be up to the returning players to make up those lost points and rebounds.

Sims is a given. A certain AA, she will have to take on more scoring. She averaged 12 ppg and will need to score closer to 18. Can she do it when the defense doesn't have Griner to worry about?

Who will be the other starters? Prince is going to start. She has some nice skills, but she struggled with her shooting for most of the season. She shot 39% from the field, 28% on 3's and 56% on ft's. she will has to make big improvements on those numbers. And does she start at the 3 or 4?

I have no idea who else might start and that shows the big problem Baylor has. No clear cut rotation. Their two bigs, Higgins and Abuke have little playing time. Same with the wings, Chandler and Fuqua. MacKenzie has the experience, but not the skill level to play starter minutes against good teams. Johnson had her moments and might start, but does that move her or Sims to the 2?

I have seen a few early polls and opinions with Baylor still top 10. I can see them scoring 10 less points a game and giving up 10 more points a game. That barley keeps them in the top 25.

DD: Another keen analysis. May I add to your superb downbeat assessment this point: if the Bears have to resort to a barley product to stay in the top 25, they are in for either a uniquely enjoyable season or immeasureably deep yogurt from the NCAA.

 

[FairView]

Is there an ETT comment on this analysis?
Other than the comment ETT made on the Baylor Board about DD's analysis:
"There are a few posters on that board that enjoy predicting doom for EVERY team not named UCONN. This is one of them."

 

[Icebear]

Is there an ETT comment on this analysis?
Other than the comment ETT made on the Baylor Board about DD's analysis:
"There are a few posters on that board that enjoy predicting doom for EVERY team not named UCONN. This is one of them."

I thought he was talking about Tonyc.

 

[DobbsRover2]

They lost 56 ppg. It will take a lot more than Prince and Sims. Sims could add 6 ppg to her average and Prince certainly has the skills to score double digits. I don't think anyone else has shown the skills necessary to cover the other 40-50 ppg.

Doesn't sound promising, though the numbers alone don't always have to be as frightening as they sound, as teams often get swept pretty clean but if they have a good nucleus can still succeed. There was a team back in 2003 that lost 53.5 ppg and 62% of their scoring and about half their rebounding to the departure of four seniors from the year before, but they had DT, Geno\CD, a promising freshmen crew, and some other veterans who were seen as a reliable core. Sims is no DT, KM is not Geno, Davis and Butler do not appear to be anywhere near the Strother-Turner-Crockett group, and the returning cast outside of Sims haven't seen the minutes. But if Sims stays healthy and takes on the leadership role well, the Bears may be able to develop to a decent level for conference play.

 

[alexrgct]

Baylor is going to take a big hit. Griner simply isn't replaceable. The other players Baylor has lost are...eventually.

I could see Baylor being a top 10 team simply because they have enough high school AAs on their team and a great PG who can be the team's identity. Meanwhile, the Big XII isn't filled to the brim with teams with the talent to step up. Challenge Uconn seriously? Doubtful. Be better than Texas, OU, and Kansas? Plausible.

 

[Suebird10fan]

Baylor is going to take a big hit. Griner simply isn't replaceable. The other players Baylor has lost are...eventually.

I could see Baylor being a top 10 team simply because they have enough high school AAs on their team and a great PG who can be the team's identity. Meanwhile, the Big XII isn't filled to the brim with teams with the talent to step up. Challenge Uconn seriously? Doubtful. Be better than Texas, OU, and Kansas? Plausible.

As is often the case Alex, I believe you nailed it.

I would only add that frequently in WCBB, and I fully expect this to be true next year, there is a vast gulf between the bottom of the top 10 and the top of the top 10.

 

[doggydaddy]

Is there an ETT comment on this analysis?
Other than the comment ETT made on the Baylor Board about DD's analysis:
"There are a few posters on that board that enjoy predicting doom for EVERY team not named UCONN. This is one of them."

Yeah, someone linked my post. Didn't know that was ETT replying.

I suppose I did pick Uconn in almost every game last year. But I only predict doom and gloom when I see it. Sorry Baylor fans.

After his Higgins and Chandler predictions last year of their superior play, he might be a little more reserved for the 2013-14 season Predictions for Baylor.

There is a thread on that board talking about the 2013-14 season starting lineup. They don't know either, kinda proving my point. Move Sims to shooting guard?

They might crack the top twenty early on, but if they continue with their tough OOC schedule, they won't be there long.

 

[Scotter]

Last year you made this post about Notre Dame and I argued that you were seriously underestimating Notre Dame just how good their top end talent was with Diggins, McBride, and Achonwa were.

This year I won't be repeating that same argument in favor of Baylor. I value Diggins as a point guard and best player on a team more than Sims, and Baylor doesn't have anyone comparable to McBride and Achonwa. The one thing I will say is that the extent of Baylor's fall may be masked to the general public by the lack of truly quality teams in the Big 12, particuarly with Texas A&M leaving the conference last year. They can fall hard and still be clearly the best team in that conference and have the inflated Big 12 RPI to go along with it. No one else in that conference is in likely to be anything more than a Sweet 16 team. Baylor on the strength of primarily Sims is probably a notch higher than that, but only one notch.

 

[doggydaddy]

Last year you made this post about Notre Dame and I argued that you were seriously underestimating Notre Dame just how good their top end talent was with Diggins, McBride, and Achonwa were.

Thank you for reminding me and everyone else about my horrid prediction about ND last year.

 

[UcMiami]

When you talk 'top 25' in WCBB you are getting into some pretty deep mediocrity. Top 15 is fairly nebulous, and top 10 can be a moving feast as well. A typical year has a fairly well defined top end but little else. Just looking at the 'post-season' rankings the following are 11-15 in ESPN - UCLA, TA&M, Georgia, Dayton, and So Carolina. Saying Baylor could be better than those teams at the end of 2012 for 2013 is not that big a stretch. And the 21-25 were Purdue, Syracuse, Iowa State, Florida State, and Nebraska - not really a murders row!
Given that you have the best PG in the country returning, anything can happen. Not comparing Sims to DT, but in 2003 exactly what kind of credentials did Maria Conlon and Jessica Moore have? Basically no statistical import prior to that season and yet they were monumental in getting that team to not top 10 status but the championship. As an example in the 2002 final four's two games the returning players other than DT averaged for 4.5 points and 30 minutes total - the following year they averaged 40 points per games and 100 minutes. For Baylor you have a very similar situation in terms of returning players - their seniors were very good players and the on court minutes for anyone else were going to be limited regardless of talent - and no one was taking minutes away from BG (junior year Tina Charles would have gotten at most 10 minutes at center on Baylor's team this year.) And while we had a very good recruiting class coming in that would rank higher than Baylor's, on paper the returning team Uconn had was worse (excepting DT/Sims) - the Valley sisters, Battle, Moore, Conlon, and Marron. They proved to be enough, but no one was expecting anything.

Interesting to not as well that Louisville was consistently ranked in the mid to upper teens - 17 in the postseason poll

 

[doggydaddy]

Given that you have the best PG in the country returning, anything can happen. Not comparing Sims to DT, but in 2003 exactly what kind of credentials did Maria Conlon and Jessica Moore have? Basically no statistical import prior to that season and yet they were monumental in getting that team to not top 10 status but the championship. As an example in the 2002 final four's two games the returning players other than DT averaged for 4.5 points and 30 minutes total - the following year they averaged 40 points per games and 100 minutes. For Baylor you have a very similar situation in terms of returning players - their seniors were very good players and the on court minutes for anyone else were going to be limited regardless of talent - and no one was taking minutes away from BG (junior year Tina Charles would have gotten at most 10 minutes at center on Baylor's team this year.) And while we had a very good recruiting class coming in that would rank higher than Baylor's, on paper the returning team Uconn had was worse (excepting DT/Sims) - the Valley sisters, Battle, Moore, Conlon, and Marron. They proved to be enough, but no one was expecting anything.

There is really no comparison between Uconn 2002-3 and next years Baylor's squad.

You already mentioned DT vs Sims. No contest.

Returning players Conlon, Battle and Moore all played a role in the prior year, averaging 17.7,16.7 and 18.6 minutes per game for the season. And all three played all 39 games.

Colons averaged 4.4 ppg, Battle averaged 5.4 ppg and 4.7 Rpg and Moore averaged 5.4 and 3.9.

That is solid experience and contributions to a championship team. Those are credentials.

Baylor, on the other hand, has their best three returning players Johnson, Prince and Makenzie.

Johnson averaged 13.3 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg and 2.8 apg. Prince averaged 13.9 mpg, 5.1, 2.4 and Makenzie averaged 10.3 mpg 2.3, .7.

I think Johnson and Prince have potential but Makenzie is no Conlon.

The post players coming back, Higgins and Agbuke, both played in only 29 games averaging 5.1 minutes.

I just don't see any comparison between the returning players for these two teams.

The incoming freshman are even more of a mismatch. Strother was the national HS player of the year. Wolff was ranked #4 by blue star. Turner was a WBCA, Parade and USA Today 1st team HS AA.

Baylor recruits? Ranked 19,31,52,82.

I get your point. Players can surprise. But I think the best Baylor can expect is to surprise us with being in the top 20. And more likely worse.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Last year you made this post about Notre Dame and I argued that you were seriously underestimating Notre Dame just how good their top end talent was with Diggins, McBride, and Achonwa were.

This year I won't be repeating that same argument in favor of Baylor. I value Diggins as a point guard and best player on a team more than Sims, and Baylor doesn't have anyone comparable to McBride and Achonwa. The one thing I will say is that the extent of Baylor's fall may be masked to the general public by the lack of truly quality teams in the Big 12, particuarly with Texas A&M leaving the conference last year. They can fall hard and still be clearly the best team in that conference and have the inflated Big 12 RPI to go along with it. No one else in that conference is in likely to be anything more than a Sweet 16 team. Baylor on the strength of primarily Sims is probably a notch higher than that, but only one notch.

Achonwa was dragged thru the mud... I was shocked because everyone else can grow and get better (especially UConn players) but not Achonwa, welp

what was said about Stokes after her freshman campaign? was she the next Tina Charles

 

[doggydaddy]

Achonwa was dragged thru the mud... I was shocked because everyone else can grow and get better (especially UConn players) but not Achonwa, welp

what was said about Stokes after her freshman campaign? was she the next Tina Charles

Dragged through the mud? Kinda harsh. Sure, some including me, didn't think she would play as well as she did. But I didn't see anything disrespectful.

I was wrong. I've admitted it. You need more?

And this Baylor thread was something that interested me. Do you have an opinion on how they will do and why?

 

[John Glass]

Baylor is going to take a big hit. Griner simply isn't replaceable. The other players Baylor has lost are...eventually.

I could see Baylor being a top 10 team simply because they have enough high school AAs on their team and a great PG who can be the team's identity. Meanwhile, the Big XII isn't filled to the brim with teams with the talent to step up. Challenge Uconn seriously? Doubtful. Be better than Texas, OU, and Kansas? Plausible.

HS AA means almost nothing, Prince was a top 10-15 player, and averaged 5.0 ppg. Baylor loses 5 of their top 6 players. Who are all the HS AAs other than Sims, and Prince ?

They not only lose Griner, they have no one behind her. At best they are a top 2o team based on previous seasons.

 

[UcMiami]

There is really no comparison between Uconn 2002-3 and next years Baylor's squad.

You already mentioned DT vs Sims. No contest.

Returning players Conlon, Battle and Moore all played a role in the prior year, averaging 17.7,16.7 and 18.6 minutes per game for the season. And all three played all 39 games.

Colons averaged 4.4 ppg, Battle averaged 5.4 ppg and 4.7 Rpg and Moore averaged 5.4 and 3.9.

That is solid experience and contributions to a championship team. Those are credentials.

Baylor, on the other hand, has their best three returning players Johnson, Prince and Makenzie.

Johnson averaged 13.3 mpg, 1.8 ppg, 1.6 rpg and 2.8 apg. Prince averaged 13.9 mpg, 5.1, 2.4 and Makenzie averaged 10.3 mpg 2.3, .7.

I think Johnson and Prince have potential but Makenzie is no Conlon.

The post players coming back, Higgins and Agbuke, both played in only 29 games averaging 5.1 minutes.

I just don't see any comparison between the returning players for these two teams.

The incoming freshman are even more of a mismatch. Strother was the national HS player of the year. Wolff was ranked #4 by blue star. Turner was a WBCA, Parade and USA Today 1st team HS AA.

Baylor recruits? Ranked 19,31,52,82.

I get your point. Players can surprise. But I think the best Baylor can expect is to surprise us with being in the top 20. And more likely worse.

Sorry to disagree, but considering that 2002 team played most second halves in garbage time the minutes were pretty meaningless - that was why I looked at the final four numbers, and when the games were competitive Conlon, Moore, and Battle were basically on the bench and certainly not scoring. All three were total surprises in 2003. I think some criticism of Kim is probably in order for managing her bench during this past year knowing that she was losing most of her starters - they certainly had enough blow-outs of their own. And while aiming for Griner to get the scoring title might have been fun, it certainly didn't help.

 

[Phil]

Thank you for reminding me and everyone else about my horrid prediction about ND last year.

You weren't the only one who felt that way. ND's performance this year was far better than I expected.

 

[Tonyc]

Baylor had Simms and Griner and won one NC. Did the team underperform? I think so by a lot. Having Griner at 6'8 and Baylor surrounding cast and not winning multiple championships is a signal that as good of a coach as Kim is the coaching staff didn't get the job done. So what makes you think this seasons version of the Bears will make the top 25? Maybe they will.

Bottom line it all comes down to defense...Team defense. This is what sets UConn apart from everybody else, Team Defense. Everybody on the roster including the coaches know Team Defense. For all the talent Baylor had last season and Tenn for many seasons they didn't get to the FF when they should've.

To drive a car you need more then Keys you need to know how to drive and not kill somebody. To win a NC you need the Keys to defense so your team has the knowledge on how to win and stop opponets when they need to. If you don't know where your going you can get lost. Its the same with BB. If you don't know how to play defense you team will loose. Why is it teams with lesser talent beat teams with more talent? Defense.

 

[meyers7]

Thank you for reminding me and everyone else about my horrid prediction about ND last year.

I agreed with you last year. Don't know if I underestimated the returners or overestimated the leaving seniors??? Probably a little of both.

But again like last year, I agree with you about Baylor.

 

[Tonyc]

You weren't the only one who felt that way. ND's performance this year was far better than I expected.[/quote
Shows you what a great passing team can do. IMO McBride and Ancohowa were great passers and not bad ball handlers. That imo is what made ND so good this past season. Perhaps Geno should send every new player to point guard school.

 

[reno tony]

DD - Interesting post and I my only quibble would that the last sentence is a bit negative - while they have lost a lot, they still have a talented roster and should be in contention for top 10.
My take - college ball starts with the PG and Baylor absolutely has that covered. A good PG can get the best out of the whole roster and I expect that to happen.
I do think it will be very interesting to see how Baylor transitions from the Griner era. With a player like BG, everything the team did was centered on her to the detriment of the other players personal games. Griner was the great strength and as the season ending loss showed also the great weakness of the team. Regardless of the 'tactics' involved, when she was taken out of her comfort zone the team struggled.
I think in a strange way not having BG will be 'freeing' for everyone on the team, and it could result in some exciting basketball. In that regard - the loss of the other seniors could be a bigger blow than the loss of BG.
Hope some of our TX visitors comment.

Not really sure I agree with anything you said concerning BG. Trivializing her leaving is at best "strange". Their complete defense was built around her protecting the paint and beyond. Players could be overly aggressive on defense because they knew 6'8" was behind them to cover their mistakes. The defense will have to change completely without her. Mulkey will certainly have her hands full this year trying to teach defense. Defense wins Championships, not offense.

Other than Sims I don't see your "talented roster" for this year. I rarely count freshman because they are unpredictable. I certainly hope they have enough to give UCONN a game..... if we play them this year.