Battle for #1 Seeds

[UcMiami]

Re my previous post - this exposition is really getting down to the problem with the RPI/SOS numbers ...
For top 20 teams playing any team ranked outside of 50 should be a cake walk, so giving a team a better score for beating #53 vs. beating team 200 is granting much to much weight to the difference. For a top 5 team, any un-ranked team should be a cake walk. So RPI and SOS end up generally ranking teams based on whether they played poor teams OOC or played truly dreadful teams OOC.

 

[j66kicker]

Does anyone know if they are releasing the #1 seeds prior to the selection show, again?

Why would they do that?

 

[river rat]

Let's compare the average RPI of the teams each team lost to. Below I give the
average RPI of the teams each team lost to and the average RPI rank of the teams
each team lost to.

Team______________Ave RPI_Ave Rank

UConn_____________.7006______2.5

WOW this stands out,,, let debbie know !!!

 

[southie]

The last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State whether you like it or not. I'm not going to cry injustice if Louisville gets selected over us because I can see why they could be, but of course I would like us to get #1, and if we do I'll take that gift. Also, wisdom will tell me it's better to play in a bracket with Oregon than a bracket with UConn. But then I also see some of the arguments people say about how we're not a good match-up for UConn. You never know what bracket will end up being better for you; I guess I'll just sit back for this.

....

According to who? Crème? He was wrong last season when he had Baylor as the last #1 seed over MSU, I believe.

Miss. State has zero wins over Top 10 RPI teams; hardly the resume' of #1 seed. Conversely, Louisville has 4 wins over Top 10 RPI teams, and Stanford has 2 wins over Top 10 RPI teams. And, both teams have better numbers than Miss. State in all categories listed by Antonelli.

Honestly, Miss. State beating Arkansas instead of South Carolina in the SEC championship game hurt RPI.

 

[UConnNick]

No offense to Debbie but the battle is over. For Baylor, ND & UConn. The last #1 could change but I think Ms st has earned that.

Poor Debbie. She just can't let go of her dream of demoting UCONN down to a No. 2 seed, as if it matters. She anxiously awaits the announcement of her "Fantasy 16" sub-tourney in beautiful Las Vegas, played in front of thousands of empty seats disguised as fans.

 

[willtalk]

Re my previous post - this exposition is really getting down to the problem with the RPI/SOS numbers ...
For top 20 teams playing any team ranked outside of 50 should be a cake walk, so giving a team a better score for beating #53 vs. beating team 200 is granting much to much weight to the difference. For a top 5 team, any un-ranked team should be a cake walk. So RPI and SOS end up generally ranking teams based on whether they played poor teams OOC or played truly dreadful teams OOC.

I would go even farther than you. Any top team should have no problems with any team not in the top 25". Rating top 50 wins is totally bogus being that they use the RPI flawed metric. The RPI was only intended to give some sort of perspective to a teams W/L record , not as a real measure of a teams strength of schedule. I am of the opinion that any team more than 150 points removed from their own RPI, should be eliminated from a teams RPI unless it is a loss. There is not much difference between beating those teams and should all count the same. Anyone who relies totally on the RPI is just plain lazy.

 

[SimpleDawg]

According to who? Crème? He was wrong last season when he had Baylor as the last #1 seed over MSU, I believe.

Miss. State has zero wins over Top 10 RPI teams; hardly the resume' of #1 seed. Conversely, Louisville has 4 wins over Top 10 RPI teams, and Stanford has 2 wins over Top 10 RPI teams. And, both teams have better numbers than Miss. State in all categories listed by Antonelli.

Honestly, Miss. State beating Arkansas instead of South Carolina in the SEC championship game hurt RPI.

If you're correct in stating that he predicted Baylor over Mississippi State last year, I would say most people thought the last #1 was between Notre Dame and Baylor. Louisville, Mississippi State, and UConn were locked. Louisville had 2 wins over Notre Dame (one which was a 33 point blow out), UConn went undefeated, and Mississippi State was undefeated until the last game.

Look, dude. I'm saying the last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State. Could we end up as a #2 seed? Sure. And there's actually a very high chance of that. But if that's the case, then the last one seed would be taken by Louisville, not Oregon or Stanford. I don't think Oregon and Stanford have a very high chance at a #1 seed. It's not based on Creme, but based on overall opinion because I don't get the impression that the majority thinks either of those two will be #1. I'm just saying I personally believe it's between Louisville and Mississippi State for the last #1 seed. I'm not sure what you're basing your stance on, but if there are people who think Oregon or Stanford is going to be a #1 seed, I obviously am missing something here.

Get over this "no wins over RPI top 10" thing. I don't remember what user it was, but there was some guy with a Longhorn avatar that keeps beating the dead horse on this. It's tiring. And a bit annoying saying that directly to a Mississippi State fan.

...

 

[Jmsdawg]

If you're correct in stating that he predicted Baylor over Mississippi State last year, I would say most people thought the last #1 was between Notre Dame and Baylor. Louisville, Mississippi State, and UConn were locked. Louisville had 2 wins over Notre Dame (one which was a 33 point blow out), UConn went undefeated, and Mississippi State was undefeated until the last game.

Look, dude. I'm saying the last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State. Could we end up as a #2 seed? Sure. And there's actually a very high chance of that. But if that's the case, then the last one seed would be taken by Louisville, not Oregon or Stanford. I don't think Oregon and Stanford have a very high chance at a #1 seed. It's not based on Creme, but based on overall opinion because I don't get the impression that the majority thinks either of those two will be #1. I'm just saying I personally believe it's between Louisville and Mississippi State for the last #1 seed. I'm not sure what you're basing your stance on, but if there are people who think Oregon or Stanford is going to be a #1 seed, I obviously am missing something here.

Get over this "no wins over RPI top 10" thing. I don't remember what user it was, but there was some guy with a Longhorn avatar that keeps beating the dead horse on this. It's tiring. And a bit annoying saying that directly to a Mississippi State fan.

...

Just ask yourself, who would you rather play -
MSST or Louisville?

 

[mbr33ct]

From a Debbie Antonelli Tweet
K this out! Interesting for #1 seeds! @BaylorWBB & @ndwbb slam dunk! Who are the other #1 seeds? Is it this simple for committee or will geography rule? Do you think "G Curve" continues to dominate women's tourney? Want a format change now?
View attachment 40876

If I'm to assume Debbie want's to make the seeding "this easy", let's go at it. She should also have had the 8th team in her list, Iowa which would for all intent and purpose shift Miss St to the 8th spot (Iowa in the 7th spot). In WarrenNolan.com UConn has a SOS of 32...how could there be a such a difference from what Debbie posted (UConn with 51 SOS)...and if it is "this easy", let's also match up #4 Stanford with #5 Oregon in the same regional. (if anyone out there know where Debbie got her list/data from I would appreciate a link to source, thanks)

 

[mbr33ct]

Just a follow up to my above post. Found the NCAA RPI list. Here are the top 8 teams.

DI Women's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Women's Basketball RPI | NCAA.com

 

[southie]

If you're correct in stating that he predicted Baylor over Mississippi State last year, I would say most people thought the last #1 was between Notre Dame and Baylor. Louisville, Mississippi State, and UConn were locked. Louisville had 2 wins over Notre Dame (one which was a 33 point blow out), UConn went undefeated, and Mississippi State was undefeated until the last game.

Look, dude. I'm saying the last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State. Could we end up as a #2 seed? Sure. And there's actually a very high chance of that. But if that's the case, then the last one seed would be taken by Louisville, not Oregon or Stanford. I don't think Oregon and Stanford have a very high chance at a #1 seed. It's not based on Creme, but based on overall opinion because I don't get the impression that the majority thinks either of those two will be #1. I'm just saying I personally believe it's between Louisville and Mississippi State for the last #1 seed. I'm not sure what you're basing your stance on, but if there are people who think Oregon or Stanford is going to be a #1 seed, I obviously am missing something here.

Get over this "no wins over RPI top 10" thing. I don't remember what user it was, but there was some guy with a Longhorn avatar that keeps beating the dead horse on this. It's tiring. And a bit annoying saying that directly to a Mississippi State fan.

...

Actually, that's NOT what you said. You said "The last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State whether you like it or not." That is not a FACT.

Maybe you're right about last season, and I was wrong; I'm okay with that. Crème was definitely wrong as he was sulking on TV after the bracket was announced and he didn't get all four #1 seeds correct. And, the reason Baylor did NOT get the last #1 seed like he was predicting is for a poor non-conference schedule and lack of Top 10-25 wins compared to the team who did get the last #1 seed. You'd think he'd learn from what the NCAA committee emphasized one year ago.

And, Oregon (who I don't believe should be a #1 seed) still has a head-to-head win over MSU this season. MSU has not one single HIGHER ranking/record than Louisville or Stanford in any category which the committee factors in their decision. If there is, and I missed it, I'm all for looking at it.

And, if you look at Q1-Q4 records, MSU played 8 games against Quadrant 4 teams (the worst team strength), while the other teams in consideration for a #1 seed played between 1 and 2 teams in Quadrant 4. That is a HUGE discrepancy.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2018-2019 Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com

You don't need to tell me to "get over" anything. Unlike you, I am actually impartial in who gets the #1 seeds. You are biased, and that is normal in supporting your team. And, your opinion on here is no more important or credible than mine.

 

[Tonyc]

Lets settle this. UConn has 2 losses Baylor and LVille . UConn has finished the season stronger then any other team in the top5 and they did it with an AA KLS on the bench. Just about every other team is slipping. UConn now has depth and height and IMO NPY in Collier. The top one seeds are Baylor UConn and ND. The fourth could be a healthy LVille Miss St Stanford or Oregon who has been struggleing. I like Miss St and Stanford as the fourth 1 seed. If its Stanford they will stay in Oregon and Oregon will travel. If its Miss St then Oregon stays in Oregon and Stanford travels. Remember the NCAA has to put fannies in the seats to bring in money, so I expect the top teams to stay close to home. How they do that well ND in Chicago, UConn in Albany, Stanford or Oregon in Portland, and Miss St/LVille in Greensboro. With that said they may not all be one seeds.

There has been alot of talk about UConn not playing as well as in the past. In the past UConn was invincible. They werent earlier in the season however right now UConn is much much better and thats a huge factor in determining one seeds. I will close on this. No team wants to Face UConn in Albany because Albany will have a huge contingent of UConn fans and UConn is playing at a very high level right now. We're going back to the FF and we will be a tuff out.

 

[southie]

For the record, there is no doubt in my mind that UConn is and should be a 1 seed. This is just an attempt to stir up a little conversation before the big reveal. I think the 4th 1 seed should go to Louisville if they are healthy. Mississippi State's resume looks to similar to Baylor's from last year, and we were given a 2 seed. Only 1 game against a top 10 team, plus a home loss to an unranked team, should not earn a top seed.

Agreed.

 

[SLY63]

Personally, I'd rather play Syracuse than Oregon State, so a #2 in Albany might be an easier path. (IMO)

 

[mbr33ct]

Lets settle this. UConn has 2 losses Baylor and LVille . UConn has finished the season stronger then any other team in the top5 and they did it with an AA KLS on the bench. Just about every other team is slipping. UConn now has depth and height and IMO NPY in Collier. The top one seeds are Baylor UConn and ND. The fourth could be a healthy LVille Miss St Stanford or Oregon who has been struggleing. I like Miss St and Stanford as the fourth 1 seed. If its Stanford they will stay in Oregon and Oregon will travel. If its Miss St then Oregon stays in Oregon and Stanford travels. Remember the NCAA has to put fannies in the seats to bring in money, so I expect the top teams to stay close to home. How they do that well ND in Chicago, UConn in Albany, Stanford or Oregon in Portland, and Miss St/LVille in Greensboro. With that said they may not all be one seeds.

There has been alot of talk about UConn not playing as well as in the past. In the past UConn was invincible. They werent earlier in the season however right now UConn is much much better and thats a huge factor in determining one seeds. I will close on this. No team wants to Face UConn in Albany because Albany will have a huge contingent of UConn fans and UConn is playing at a very high level right now. We're going back to the FF and we will be a tuff out.

In the past UConn was bad for Women's basketball...I would like to think this year they are good for basketball?

 

[Tonyc]

Im hoping this year UConn goes to the foul line as much or more then ND did last year in the FF. Then we win just like ND did.

 

[LoTrader]

This year, I don't think it makes much difference if your team is a #1 or #2 seed. And, if your team is between a #3 and #4 seed, I also think it doesn't matter this year. Most important is hosting the 1st two games, and, second, getting to play in a regional that is close to home. Once you get to the 3rd game (sweet 16), you have to be prepared to beat any team.

 

[southie]

This year, I don't think it makes much difference if your team is a #1 or #2 seed. And, if your team is between a #3 and #4 seed, I also think it doesn't matter this year. Most important is hosting the 1st two games, and, second, getting to play in a regional that is close to home. Once you get to the 3rd game (sweet 16), you have to be prepared to beat any team.

I think it matters for the teams affected when a team is sent to a regional where one team has the decided home court advantage (UConn in Albany, and Oregon in Portland). This is nothing new, though; been that way for decades, and will continue to be that way for the foreseeable future, IMO.

Even in the men's bracket, a couple of #1's or #2's could hold decided geographic advantages with the opportunity to play close to home and in front of a lot of their fans; but, they earn that right based on their play throughout the season.

 

[mbr33ct]

All it takes is for other areas of this great country to place bid to host a regional venue.

 

[southie]

All it takes is for other areas of this great country to place bid to host a regional venue.

That's definitely true. But, there was never a reason to award Lexington, KY three consecutive regionals; glad we are past that injustice.

 

[SimpleDawg]

Actually, that's NOT what you said. You said "The last #1 is between Louisville and Mississippi State whether you like it or not." That is not a FACT.

Maybe you're right about last season, and I was wrong; I'm okay with that. Crème was definitely wrong as he was sulking on TV after the bracket was announced and he didn't get all four #1 seeds correct. And, the reason Baylor did NOT get the last #1 seed like he was predicting is for a poor non-conference schedule and lack of Top 10-25 wins compared to the team who did get the last #1 seed. You'd think he'd learn from what the NCAA committee emphasized one year ago.

And, Oregon (who I don't believe should be a #1 seed) still has a head-to-head win over MSU this season. MSU has not one single HIGHER ranking/record than Louisville or Stanford in any category which the committee factors in their decision. If there is, and I missed it, I'm all for looking at it.

And, if you look at Q1-Q4 records, MSU played 8 games against Quadrant 4 teams (the worst team strength), while the other teams in consideration for a #1 seed played between 1 and 2 teams in Quadrant 4. That is a HUGE discrepancy.

Rating Percentage Index (RPI) Live 2018-2019 Women's College Basketball - WarrenNolan.com

You don't need to tell me to "get over" anything. Unlike you, I am actually impartial in who gets the #1 seeds. You are biased, and that is normal in supporting your team. And, your opinion on here is no more important or credible than mine.

Ohhh gosh. Another user getting so particular with semantics here. And you even bolded my statements... lol. It may not be an absolute fact, but I don't exactly have to add a IMO to every sentence I write here, do I?

Actually, all you've said so far is if Oregon or Stanford or Louisville deserves a higher seed than us. You haven't actually said WHETHER they will or not, which is what I'm trying to say. I can't imagine a scenario where Oregon or Stanford will earn a #1. If you can, then that means they jump not only Mississippi State, but Louisville as well. I"m sure Louisville will be happy to know that Oregon - who has an even worse play recently than Louisville does, is going to be ranked higher than them for the same reason Louisville is being dropped so many spots.

You sound incredibly impartial for someone who has to go on 5 different threads and beat this over the head. I'm not biased, actually. I actually thought Baylor deserved the #1 seed last year. Notre Dame got throttled by Louisville by 33 points - even though that game was early in the year. But Notre Dame's SOS rank was high. And Kristy Wallace had a season ending injury, which according to the committee affected their decision. I wouldn't call that being biased? I see Baylor's situation of last year like Mississippi State's this year, so i'm siding with the situation.

One thing you have to realize is that 1) history isn't always gonna repeat just because it occurred last year 2) calling me biased because I'm a Bulldog is the easy road to take, but I don't exactly sound half as stringent as you do.

I have a question for you. If we do get a #1 seed, will you be ok?


...

 

[Fightin Choke]

Lets settle this. UConn has 2 losses Baylor and LVille . UConn has finished the season stronger then any other team in the top5 and they did it with an AA KLS on the bench. Just about every other team is slipping. UConn now has depth and height and IMO NPY in Collier. The top one seeds are Baylor UConn and ND. The fourth could be a healthy LVille Miss St Stanford or Oregon who has been struggleing. I like Miss St and Stanford as the fourth 1 seed. If its Stanford they will stay in Oregon and Oregon will travel. If its Miss St then Oregon stays in Oregon and Stanford travels. Remember the NCAA has to put fannies in the seats to bring in money, so I expect the top teams to stay close to home. How they do that well ND in Chicago, UConn in Albany, Stanford or Oregon in Portland, and Miss St/LVille in Greensboro. With that said they may not all be one seeds.

There has been alot of talk about UConn not playing as well as in the past. In the past UConn was invincible. They werent earlier in the season however right now UConn is much much better and thats a huge factor in determining one seeds. I will close on this. No team wants to Face UConn in Albany because Albany will have a huge contingent of UConn fans and UConn is playing at a very high level right now. We're going back to the FF and we will be a tuff out.

Tonyc, wasn't KLS only on the bench for the last 3.5 games? Do you think that UConn's performance in their last 4 games (10 point win @USF to finish regular season and then 3-game sweep through AAC tournament) is that much more impressive than Notre Dame or Stanford's performance over that time frame? Or did I misinterpret your statement?

 

[uconnfan68]

From a Debbie Antonelli Tweet
K this out! Interesting for #1 seeds! @BaylorWBB & @ndwbb slam dunk! Who are the other #1 seeds? Is it this simple for committee or will geography rule? Do you think "G Curve" continues to dominate women's tourney? Want a format change now?
View attachment 40876

Where do bad losses go?

 

[mbr33ct]

Tonyc, wasn't KLS only on the bench for the last 3.5 games? Do you think that UConn's performance in their last 4 games (10 point win @USF to finish regular season and then 3-game sweep through AAC tournament) is that much more impressive than Notre Dame or Stanford's performance over that time frame? Or did I misinterpret your statement?

Here try these on, now do you see what @Tonyc is talking about?

 

[MainefanSC]

Tonyc, wasn't KLS only on the bench for the last 3.5 games? Do you think that UConn's performance in their last 4 games (10 point win @USF to finish regular season and then 3-game sweep through AAC tournament) is that much more impressive than Notre Dame or Stanford's performance over that time frame? Or did I misinterpret your statement?

4.5 games. No big deal, just a clarification