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Basketball not to be this year?

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KnightBridgeAZ

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It's still early...there's time for this scourge to go one way or another...Patience...all will be clear.

The next two or three weeks (with some states opening) will be useful in figuring out if our current problem will accelerate or diminish.

By mid-June all will be clear and our current semi-bewilderment will be resolved. Ja order nein...Too early to prognosticate now.
I shared this sentiment on Facebook, credited to a poster on a sports message board, and someone responded "wise".

As I read this thread, various folks, who at least implicitly seem to be from different parts of the political spectrum also speak the other truth. That the "sweet spot" destination for the country is somewhere on the continuum from severe lockdown to behavior as it was before the virus. That's a long distance (hence disagreements), but 100% correct. The trick is "where" on the continuum and as msf says, this will become clearer as we see how things progress in the next several weeks.
 

MSGRET

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Currently we have some states opening and others having shelter in place orders. Some of those states that are sheltering in place continue to have a high number of cases while some of the states that are opening have a decrease in cases. We can't do this forever and not have an economy that we can return to. Sweden did not close down, but they did have measures that kept the numbers low. We have to have a middle ground where we are safe as can be while also continuing to have some normalcy in life and work.
 
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Currently we have some states opening and others having shelter in place orders. Some of those states that are sheltering in place continue to have a high number of cases while some of the states that are opening have a decrease in cases. We can't do this forever and not have an economy that we can return to. Sweden did not close down, but they did have measures that kept the numbers low. We have to have a middle ground where we are safe as can be while also continuing to have some normalcy in life and work.
I really don't understand why people point to Sweden as some sort of model for how to do it. Sweden's death rate from the virus is 6th highest in the entire world. It's death rate is nearly 9X higher than its neighbor Norway. It's nearly 4X higher than Denmark. It's nearly as high as France's death rate. And it's a third higher than America's rate of death. And it's rising fast.

I don't mean this to be argumentative. The point with this is that lives are at stake. I possess at least five risk factors, any one of which would probably result in my death should I be infected. And all together, I'm toast if I get it. And I live in Connecticut, which features one of the highest rates of infection, and the third highest rate of death from Covid-19 in the entire country. By far.

So when we debate, or UConn officials, or Big East officials, debate "opening", we're talking about people dying. Not just old fogies like me. But kids, their coaches (Coach Geno is almost 65, and he's not exactly lean, so he's among those at great risk from infection, too), their parents, their professors, are at risk of dying from this.

I want it all to go away. But other than war, can anyone think of a situation in which the risk of death was so serious?
 

oldude

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Currently we have some states opening and others having shelter in place orders. Some of those states that are sheltering in place continue to have a high number of cases while some of the states that are opening have a decrease in cases. We can't do this forever and not have an economy that we can return to. Sweden did not close down, but they did have measures that kept the numbers low. We have to have a middle ground where we are safe as can be while also continuing to have some normalcy in life and work.
One of the things that Sweden has is an excellent universal healthcare system that covers 100% of the population, including migrant workers. Despite that health care plan, Sweden’s death rate during the pandemic is 27% higher than normal.
 
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Currently we have some states opening and others having shelter in place orders. Some of those states that are sheltering in place continue to have a high number of cases while some of the states that are opening have a decrease in cases. We can't do this forever and not have an economy that we can return to. Sweden did not close down, but they did have measures that kept the numbers low. We have to have a middle ground where we are safe as can be while also continuing to have some normalcy in life and work.
I could not agree more. I still fail to understand this reasoning. I can stand 6 feet apart from people in a crowded WalMart or Home Depot with a mask and gloves on but I can’t do it in a Mom and Pop grocery store? A very eloquent speaker at one if the “open up” demonstrations in Harrisburg, Pa., a woman who started a children’s clothes store with her mother 3 decades ago, wondered why it was deemed that Target and WalMart could manage the distancing and PPE rules and sell children‘s clothes but she couldn’t. So it was deemed her bankruptcy was acceptable “collateral damage” along with countless other small businesses? Why?
Plain old common sense has gone the way of the dinosaur and the respect for people’s willingness to observe rules that make sense and are applied intelligently and fairly has followed the same route. People will sacrifice when necessary and overwhelmingly have in this situation, but the fact is, these measures were sold as “flatten the curve” and by and large that has happened. It is now time to get back to life and living, albeit while observing common sense PPE and distancing guidelines.
War analogies seem to be somewhat popular, well, no war was ever won hiding in a basement.
 
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I could not agree more. I still fail to understand this reasoning. I can stand 6 feet apart from people in a crowded WalMart or Home Depot with a mask and gloves on but I can’t do it in a Mom and Pop grocery store? A very eloquent speaker at one if the “open up” demonstrations in Harrisburg, Pa., a woman who started a children’s clothes store with her mother 3 decades ago, wondered why it was deemed that Target and WalMart could manage the distancing and PPE rules and sell children‘s clothes but she couldn’t. So it was deemed her bankruptcy was acceptable “collateral damage” along with countless other small businesses? Why?
Plain old common sense has gone the way of the dinosaur and the respect for people’s willingness to observe rules that make sense and are applied intelligently and fairly has followed the same route. People will sacrifice when necessary and overwhelmingly have in this situation, but the fact is, these measures were sold as “flatten the curve” and by and large that has happened. It is now time to get back to life and living, albeit while observing common sense PPE and distancing guidelines.
War analogies seem to be somewhat popular, well, no war was ever won hiding in a basement.
Mom and Pop grocery stores are open in NY, as essential businesses.
 

oldude

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Mom and Pop grocery stores are open in NY, as essential businesses.
As of yesterday all manufacturing, contractors and retailers in 5 of 10 NY regions that have met the CDC Phase 1 guidelines are now open for business in NY. I live in the “Capital District” which is still short on 1 or 2 guidelines, but we’re getting close.

Everyone wants businesses to reopen, but there is a right way and a wrong way. A month ago, the Federal Government outlined specific metrics for reopening businesses. Some states like NY, MA, OH, FL and others are following these reopening guidelines. Other states have not.

In the end, it doesn’t matter when states reopen businesses if people don’t have confidence it’s safe. One example Is worth mentioning. Several states have jumped ahead of CDC guidelines to reopen restaurants for in person dining. Surveys of restaurants in 3 of these states (GA, TN & TX) have indicated that business levels are at bare minimums.

I absolutely want to go out to restaurants and travel again. I’m dying to watch live sports. While my wife and I spend a lot more time on FaceTime, we are desperate to spend time with my son, his wife and our 2-year old grandson again. But for now we will live with this situation for as long as we have to, until we can return to whatever the new normal is, so that everyone can be safe and healthy.
 
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I live in Phoenix. We just reopened restaurants, bars, barber shops, etc. I went last night to pick up Mexican food. I had forgotten about the reopening and was surprised to see the restaurant full of people dining and drinking, no masks (help or customers). Seems a little early, but we never really got hit hard here at all (yet, anyway).

So I was talking with my daughter who lives in New Jersey. We figured out that in the whole state of Arizona (7.3 million people) there have been only half the deaths from the virus than there have been just in Essex County, NJ where she lives (population only 796,000, including Newark). Just for the heck of it I looked up Phoenix's population - 1.7 million, and Newark's population - only 283,000. I knew Phoenix was bigger than that, so I looked up the Phoenix MSA (metropolitan statistical area). 4.7 million. So... then I looked up the Newark MSA. 20 million - BINGO!
 
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I live in Phoenix. We just reopened restaurants, bars, barber shops, etc. I went last night to pick up Mexican food. I had forgotten about the reopening and was surprised to see the restaurant full of people dining and drinking, no masks (help or customers). Seems a little early, but we never really got hit hard here at all (yet, anyway).

So I was talking with my daughter who lives in New Jersey. We figured out that in the whole state of Arizona (7.3 million people) there have been only half the deaths from the virus than there have been just in Essex County, NJ where she lives (population only 796,000, including Newark). Just for the heck of it I looked up Phoenix's population - 1.7 million, and Newark's population - only 283,000. I knew Phoenix was bigger than that, so I looked up the Phoenix MSA (metropolitan statistical area). 4.7 million. So... then I looked up the Newark MSA. 20 million - BINGO!
The NYC CSA which includes parts of Connecticut and New Jersey is about 25 million people. One city's metro area with more people than every state in the country except California and Texas. Population density of 5300 people per square mile.
 

oldude

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There is an interesting statistical metric relative to the metropolitan NYC area (NY, NJ, CT). This region has had the highest number of Covid-19 cases in the country by far, and has worked very hard to flatten its curve. If you pull out the NYC region from the National totals, cases in the rest of the country are still on the increase. If you also pull out Detroit and New Orleans, two major cities that also flattened their curves, it looks even worse.

In the past few weeks a number of new hotspots have appeared in places like Nashville, Amarillo, Columbus and Charlotte. I would love for this thing to be over, but I fear we have a way to go yet.
 
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As of yesterday all manufacturing, contractors and retailers in 5 of 10 NY regions that have met the CDC Phase 1 guidelines are now open for business in NY. I live in the “Capital District” which is still short on 1 or 2 guidelines, but we’re getting close.

Everyone wants businesses to reopen, but there is a right way and a wrong way. A month ago, the Federal Government outlined specific metrics for reopening businesses. Some states like NY, MA, OH, FL and others are following these reopening guidelines. Other states have not.

In the end, it doesn’t matter when states reopen businesses if people don’t have confidence it’s safe. One example Is worth mentioning. Several states have jumped ahead of CDC guidelines to reopen restaurants for in person dining. Surveys of restaurants in 3 of these states (GA, TN & TX) have indicated that business levels are at bare minimums.

I absolutely want to go out to restaurants and travel again. I’m dying to watch live sports. While my wife and I spend a lot more time on FaceTime, we are desperate to spend time with my son, his wife and our 2-year old grandson again. But for now we will live with this situation for as long as we have to, until we can return to whatever the new normal is, so that everyone can be safe and healthy.
Hi Dude,
I’m curious to know your thoughts on opening up Saratoga Race Course for racing in front of an empty grandstand.
 

eebmg

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oldude

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Hi Dude,
I’m curious to know your thoughts on opening up Saratoga Race Course for racing in front of an empty grandstand.
Gov Cuomo announced today that NY race tracks (horse & race car) will open on June 1, without fans. So Saratoga will be open, races will be televised and I guess betting will be allowed via OTB. I’m 20 minutes from the track and love to go there every season. Not quite the same without being able to wander around the paddock, check out the horses, place your bet and crowd the rail near the finish line to cheer your horse in.
 
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The NYC CSA which includes parts of Connecticut and New Jersey is about 25 million people. One city's metro area with more people than every state in the country except California and Texas. Population density of 5300 people per square mile.
Interesting stuff. So I checked some other population densities:

AZ 45 people per square mile
CT 738
Phoenix Proper 3920
NYC CSA 5300 (from @hoopsfan22)
Newark 11,460
Hong Kong 17,300
Sao Paulo 18,700
Milan 19,600
Singapore 21,600
Mexico City 25,380
New York City Proper 26,400
Seoul 40,800
Paris 55,600
Manhattan 71,000
Mumbai 83,700
Manilla 119,600
 
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Interesting stuff. So I checked some other population densities:

AZ 45 people per square mile
CT 738
Phoenix Proper 3920
NYC CSA 5300 (from @hoopsfan22)
Newark 11,460
Hong Kong 17,300
Sao Paulo 18,700
Milan 19,600
Singapore 21,600
Mexico City 25,380
New York City Proper 26,400
Seoul 40,800
Paris 55,600
Manhattan 71,000
Mumbai 83,700
Manilla 119,600
Connecticut is the 4th most densely populated state in the nation. And our air quality is very poor. We're learning that population density and air pollution both result in higher infection rates.

Sweden now has a death rate from the disease that is nearly that of France, and some 40% higher than America's. Just opening up results in a lot of people dying.
 

KnightBridgeAZ

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So happy to hear of the reopenings that are happening. I too support "sensible" reopening, while waiting to see the results over the next few weeks.

Yes, sadly, trying to open the restaurants with restrictions is very, very difficult for the restaurants. Without some of the restriction, they "might" get more customers, but there are an awful lot of us who just are not prepared to risk it yet - although most of us have no problem with those who do. We just hope they follow guidelines of distancing, masks, etc.
 
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