I felt we had a chance in the first few minutes as we jumped out to an early lead, they weren't killing us with physicality, and it wasn't 5 on 8.
I thought it was likely we'd win when we got up 10+ in the first half.
I felt confident we'd hang on after Giff hit a couple of 3's to push the lead to 5, giving us a bit of a cushion that we didn't really have in the second half.
I knew we would win coming out of the timeout at 0:55, up 4, and Squid's guys weren't going to foul us. That meant they would have about 20 seconds to erase a 4-point deficit, which would require them making 3's on back-to-back possessions, and would have been nearly impossible.
I really knew we would win on the ensuing possession when it took them 10 seconds of fumbling the ball around the perimeter to get it into Harrison's hands. At that point I said "they're taking way too much time", and I knew the best they could get is a broken possession.
I was certain the game was over when the other Harrison's jumper from the corner bounced high up off the rim, there was mathematically not enough time to erase a 6-point deficit.