This could happen even if most of the players that are candidates have pretty good years. As you correctly point out Christyn and Olivia have serious returning competition at their respective positions. To get first or second team AA they need to leapfrog a few people, and Boston in particular is a major hurdle for Olivia achieving first team status.
The other contenders have a few obstacles to overcome as well. Transfers like Evina can make it, but I think it is easier for players that spend their whole college career at one school. Foreign players like Anna and Aaliyah might lose a few votes because of that as well, and while making some team is possible for freshmen, making first team in the first year would be a major accomplishment if Paige can do it.
Several players on this roster I have no doubt will reach AA status of first or second team in time, and a few more spots on the wall. This year is possible but maybe not as likely as in the next few years.
Another factor is the much discussed debate over who will start, playing time in general, who the go to scorer will be etc. I would argue the only completely sure thing starter is Olivia. Everybody has their own opinion but one player from Paige, Anna, Christyn and Evina will not start unless the small ball lineup is used. Whoever that winds up being will clearly not be an AA.
Further because the team should be very good (blowouts), and because of a deeper bench which reduces starters minutes further yet, putting up great statistical totals for any of our candidates will be difficult, even if their per minutes stats are great.
I imagine the go to player debate would center on Paige if she is great from the git go, Christyn, or Evina. To get AA consideration this year, somebody needs to emerge from the pack as a near 20 point per game scorer
like Megan did last year, but probably in significantly fewer minutes than Megan got. That may be an evolving process over the course of the season, but make it harder than if the star of the team was known before the season starts.
Hope I'm wrong, and we have future AA's on the roster, just think it will be really difficult for a first team AA this year, but below that we have plenty of candidates.
Players don't need to beat out others at the same position to make 1st Team AA, it's the 5 best players, not the C/F/F/G/G format the WNBA uses. Both ONO and Boston could be 1st Teamers if they have excellent seasons.
Returning players who made a top 3 AP team include:
Rhyne Howard-was 1st Team last year and 2nd in the country for AP votes after Ionescu
Aliyah Boston-2nd team
Aari McDonald-2nd team
Dana Evans-2nd team
Michaela Onyenwere-3rd team
Elissa Cunane-3rd team
I think if Williams lives up to her billing and the switch goes on for playing more aggressively, she can definitely infiltrate this group and rise to first team, similar to how Walker did a year ago. ONO struggled against quality bigs but made big improvements last year. I'd think 1st team is a big stretch but she's in the mix for making 3rd team IMO. Keep in mind too, the vast majority of the top 3 AP teams are filled will players from top 15 programs. It's quite unusual to have more than 1-2 players make an AP team that aren't on a top 15 or so program. That itself gives players like ONO/Williams an inherent advantage over most other returning HM AA players like Joens, Guirantes, Lane, etc. since UCONN is projected to safely be a top 10 team next year while those other players are on teams that likely wont sniff being in the top 10.
One thing to keep in mind, UCONN has had a representative on the 1st AP All American team for 11 of the past 13 seasons, and the two years they missed they had a 2nd teamer or a 3rd teamer. History says someone will likely make 1st Team from the Huskies.
I'm not sure why you think transfers have it harder making a team... McDonald made a team this year as a transfer. Jess Shepard made AA last year, Lexie Brown the 2 years before that. If a transfer player has an AA worthy season, they usually make a team.
Also not sure when voters have had bias against foreign players. I just don't see Makurat as an AA type of player though. She's more of a glue player who does a lot of things well and is important for team success but isn't going to put up 15-20 on a nightly basis. Edwards I don't think is on anyone's radar, as she isn't expected to contend for a starting spot, and isn't even a solidified rotation player.
In regards to starters, all signs point to Makurat and Williams as safe bets for starters. Makurat is the best returning decision maker and was excellent as a starter the 2nd half of the season. And Williams isn't coming off the bench after starting for 2 years.
Westbrook was good at Tennessee but is going to be in her first year in Geno's system, and we saw Geno not have any problem benching a high profile transfer in Stevens. That said, I think she starts.
Bueckers is most likely the one to come off the bench if Griffin is a lock for the 4 spot. Keep in mind, Geno will ALWAYS have freshmen come off the bench if he has quality older players that can start. Each of Stewart, Moore, and Taurasi came off the bench until injuries created an opening in the starting lineup. Stewart was a tournament MOP, Moore 2nd in the nation in POY voting, and Taurasi a regional MOP as a frosh...all 3 came off the bench until injuries put them in as starters. The players who have started as freshmen (ex. Kia Nurse, Tina Charles, Christyn Williams, Makurat, Dolson, Hartley, etc.) did so because there was no suitable option to start in front of them. Unless Westbrook can't adjust to Geno's system, gets injured, or Geno has some change in coaching philosophy, I think it's quite unlikely Bueckers starts from the get go.
Obviously time will tell but that's my take on it.