April's Final Four?

[Blakeon18]

Would anyone be the least bit surprised if the final four
included...in no particular order...Stanford/Baylor/UConn and Duke?

Barring devastating type injuries I would be somewhere between surprised and
shocked if somebody else made their way to New Orleans.

If this is true....IF....I'm not sure that this is good for our side of the game.

 

[Icebear]

That is who I expect, Blake, but odd things do happen on the way to the forum.

 

[alexrgct]

Those four teams will very, very likely be the #1 seeds. In 1989 and last year, all four #1 seeds made the F4. Hopefully it doesn't happen again (though the national semis were both very good games last year).

 

[meyers7]

That's who I would guess. I would also expect an upset somewhere along the way, or injuries. But that's who should be expected.

 

[Phil]

I'd like to see Duke play a ranked team before including them on the list. Luckily, I'll get my wish tomorrow.

Their toughest opponent so far isn't in the top 50 of Sagarin.

 

[easttexastrash]

Duke will perform very well. The addition of Jones gives them a whole new dimension that they were missing last year.

 

[Stray Cat]

I'd like to see Duke play a ranked team before including them on the list. Luckily, I'll get my wish tomorrow.

Their toughest opponent so far isn't in the top 50 of Sagarin.

I concur with you Phil on your FF predictions, and am equally excited about tomorrow's game. Not only will we get some questions answered about Duke, but their opponent as well -- is Cal ready to elevate their status? They played ND tough in the tournament last year, displaying good speed and physical play. To me, they are one of many who could wind up as a #2 seed. A good showing tomorrow will really help them later on down the road.

 

[Phil]

I agree. Cal's best opponent so far (based upon Sagarin) is ODU, which may be ahead of itself at 36, so we will find out more about Cal tomorrow as well.

 

[Vowelguy]

Barring devastating type injuries I would be somewhere between surprised and
shocked if somebody else made their way to New Orleans.

I'd agree they're the favorites, but I definitely wouldn't be shocked if someone else made it. In fact, I'd probably be shocked if someone didnt.

It's very very very early in the season. Plenty of time for teams to get their act together and become a force later in the season.

 

[Vowelguy]

For some perspective ...

Looking at the first poll in December and who made the final four later that year:

2012: 1, 2, 3, 4​

2011: 1, 3, 7, 18​

2010: 1, 2, 6, 16​

2009: 1, 4, 6, 13​

2008: 1, 2, 6, 8​

2007: 2, 6, 9, 19​

2006: 2, 3, 7, 9​

2005: 1, 6, 9, 12​

2004: 1, 3, 9, 18​

2003: 1, 3, 4, 17​

​

7 of the last 10 years, someone not in the top 10 in early Dec made the final four
Last year was just the first time since 2003 that more than two top-5 teams made the final four

 

[Vowelguy]

By the way ...
Going back to 1990, the only teams ranked #20 or lower in early Dec to make the final four:

#20 Arkansas in 1998
#25 NC St in 1998
#22 Purdue in 1994
unranked Ohio St in 1993
unranked Missouri St in 1992
unranked UConn in 1991

 

[HuskyFan1125]

I can see 2 or 3 of those.

UCONN/Stanford/Baylor/?????

Honestly, if Sims doesnt come back I am not sure about Baylor! I like Duke! They are my 2nd fav WCBB team, but it seems like they choke in the elite 8. I want them to the FF but unless EWilliams is 100% they "could" get nipped by someone!

And speaking of injuries had Maryland not sustained those backcourt ACL's I think they should be in consideration.

Its still early and some teams have yet to be truly tested. So I think the other 1/2 that could make the FF are :

Kentucky: Yes, Baylor killed them but as Stallworth/Walker learn how to play together better I think they will get stronger.
Maryland: Even though they have back court issues they still have Alyssa Thomas.
Louisville: Still need them to see them play. Sunday (12/2) against Kentucky will be a good gauge for both.
Notre Dame: Long shot. I think their inside game will be their undoing at some point.
California: Could be a legit team. Wait to see them match up with the Cardinal.
Georgia: Will better be able to guage them after SEC play starts but they are doing well and have a balanced scoring.
LONG SHOT::::: (dont laugh).....Texas: I am kinda impressed with how they are doing thus far. Cant wait to see them in the Big12 play and that will be a better barometer on how they are really doing.

anyway thats my 2cents on a saturday.

 

[Wonkster]

That is who I expect, Blake, but odd things do happen on the way to the forum.

They're playing at the Forum?

 

[MilfordHusky]

They're playing at the Forum?

Yep, and at the start of the game, the score is tied, Zero Mostel to Zero Mostel.

 

[willtalk]

They're playing at the Forum?

The Boneyard forum?

 

[MilfordHusky]

I think those are the likely four, but most years, there is at least one upset. I think there is a big drop to #5 or 6, as usual, so I'll predict three of those will make it. Maybe ND can upset someone in the regionals. If the Sims story becomes a problem, I may revise my prediction to two.

 

[01Neaggrad02]

I might be the only who feels this.. but I would not be surprised to see Baylor not make the Final Four. I think that they are talented but ready to implode. Especially if they lose another game or two this season. Whats the deal with Simms?

 

[Vowelguy]

More stats on who makes F4 relative to early Dec AP poll...

Last 25 years:

Rnkd #1-4: 52
_# 5 - 9_: 24
_#10 -19_: 18
_#20 -25_: 3
_unranked: 3

 

[MilfordHusky]

More stats on who makes F4 relative to early Dec AP poll...

Last 25 years:

Rnkd #1-4: 52
_# 5 - 9_: 24
_#10 -19_: 18
_#20 -25_: 3
_unranked: 3

Thanks. That's 52 out of 100. It seems that the expected value is about 2, with the top 2 being most likely.

 

[Vowelguy]

Thanks. That's 52 out of 100. It seems that the expected value is about 2, with the top 2 being most likely.

Funny enough, it's been #1 and #3. (Not that we're talking about statistical significance.)
#1 = 17, #2 = 11, #3 = 13, #4 = 11

 

[ed4ourgirls]

The 3 teams in the 20's and the 3 unranked teams are all
from the 1990's. Could it be that sportswriters cared even
less about the women's game then than they do now and
were even less knowledgable - thus leading to a less accurate
forecast?

 

[Phil]

One of those teams is Connecticut, who were unranked in the 3 Decemeber 1990 poll, but went on to make the Final Four. I don't see this as evidence of not paying attention. It is more due to a phenomenon that still exists - UConn was unranked in the Final 1990 poll, not yet recognized as an up and coming team, so didn't get ranked in the pre-season poll for 1991. If you are in the rankings, you can stay int he rankings with wins over so-so teams, but if you are out, you need to have some signature wins, or some teams ahea dof you have to lose. UConn was ranked in the 10 December poll, but ended the year in 13th, even though they would make the Final Four.

 

[Vowelguy]

One of those teams is Connecticut, who were unranked in the 3 Decemeber 1990 poll, but went on to make the Final Four. I don't see this as evidence of not paying attention. It is more due to a phenomenon that still exists - UConn was unranked in the Final 1990 poll, not yet recognized as an up and coming team, so didn't get ranked in the pre-season poll for 1991. If you are in the rankings, you can stay int he rankings with wins over so-so teams, but if you are out, you need to have some signature wins, or some teams ahea dof you have to lose. UConn was ranked in the 10 December poll, but ended the year in 13th, even though they would make the Final Four.

UConn was ranked in the poll then week before Dec 3.

 

[Phil]

Another example is Missouri State. Per Wikipedia, "Missouri State (then Southwest Missouri State), was not a regular participant in the Tournament. They had not earned a bid until 1991, when they won their first game and lost their second game." They ended up in the Final Four, but they literally came out of nowhere. Maybe close attention by sports writers would have identified them as a contender earlier, but they were in the Gateway Conference (anyone remember that?) and look to me like a flash in the pan (they are better remember for the later run with Jackie Stiles, but their 1992 bid looks like something that would be hard to predict in December.)

I also think the body of talent and recruiting services are now more refined. In the early 90's, you might be able to add a few diamonds in the rough to a low ranked team, and out together a Final Four team, which takes a couple months to recognize the ability, while that is harder to do today.

 

[Phil]

UConn was ranked in the poll then week before Dec 3.

But they weren't ranked in the 3 December polls, which sounds like the early December poll to me. Are you saying that UConn isn't one of your three teams? Can you sahre the list and source?