AP Top 25 Week 16: same Top 5, Lady Vols drop out, Princeton back in

[Centerstream]

AP Top 25 Women's College Basketball Poll

The official page for the AP Top 25 women's college basketball poll. Keep up to date and view the latest NCAA women's basketball ranking updates each week for the 2025-26 season.

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[Phil]

I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.

 

[Centerstream]

I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.

Maybe because Tennessee is on a four game losing streak? Should that be rewarded by the human voters? They started conference play with a 6-0 record and since then they are 2-6.
They can finish the season with winning again (beating LSU and/or Vandy?) and then making some noise in the conference tourney and probably get back into the Top 25.

 

[Bigboote]

There really aren't any rules for voting for the AP top 25, so it doesn't have to make sense. I'm sure some of the voters look at others' votes and say those votes don't make sense. It can be literally entirely the eye test, and I'll bet some of the voters haven't watched an entire game of some of the teams they vote for.

Recency bias lives in the polls. Tennessee is 2-7 in their last nine games.

(cross-posted with Centerstream)

 

[BRS24]

I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.

Largest ORV group this week - Colorado 23, Fairfield 18, Tennessee 12, Columbia 10, Rhode Island 7, N Dakota St 7, Virginia 6, Villanova 6, Southern Cal 5, Rice 4, Iowa St. 3, Syracuse 2, Illinois 2, Notre Dame 1, Washington 1, NC State 1.

Not sure I agree with TN getting this many votes, based on my eye test. They've lost 7 of last 9 games, 6 to SEC foes, got beat badly by UConn, outscored 787 to 619.

 

[Phil]

Largest ORV group this week - Colorado 23, Fairfield 18, Tennessee 12, Columbia 10, Rhode Island 7, N Dakota St 7, Virginia 6, Villanova 6, Southern Cal 5, Rice 4, Iowa St. 3, Syracuse 2, Illinois 2, Notre Dame 1, Washington 1, NC State 1.

Not sure I agree with TN getting this many votes, based on my eye test. They've lost 7 of last 9 games, 6 to SEC foes, got beat badly by UConn, outscored 787 to 619.

They already have fewer votes than Fairfield and you think they should have fewer. That either means you think that Fairfield would be favored in a game against Tennessee or you think there's something horribly wrong with the Fairfield voting.

 

[typhaon]

Tennessee just got beat (at home) by Texas A&M, lead by a couple of former All-MAAC players. Fairfield has a whole roster of them. I would assume Fairfield would be significant favorites vs. the Aggies.

Tennessee should be better than both, but basketball is about winning games in the season that actually happens. Underachieving isn't going to be viewed the same way by AP voters as it might by some statistical equation. Tennessee still has a NET of #22.

 

[Phil]

Tennessee just got beat (at home) by Texas A&M, lead by a couple of former All-MAAC players. Fairfield has a whole roster of them. I would assume Fairfield would be significant favorites vs. the Aggies.

Tennessee should be better than both, but basketball is about winning games in the season that actually happens. Underachieving isn't going to be viewed the same way by AP voters as it might by some statistical equation. Tennessee still has a #NET of 22.

That wouldn't surprise me but I was asking who would be favored between Tennessee and Fairfield. My guess is Tennessee would be favored by about 15.

 

[BRS24]

They already have fewer votes than Fairfield and you think they should have fewer. That either means you think that Fairfield would be favored in a game against Tennessee or you think there's something horribly wrong with the Fairfield voting.

Not exactly. I tend to take ORV votes with a grain of salt. However ...

The mid-major teams (gosh I hate that moniker) like Fairfield get punished for not winning by a lot or losing by a little, and yet, TN and other teams get propped up, and when they start racking up losses, they aren't penalized as quickly.

In 2023-24, UConn lost to some ranked teams early in the season, and got pushed from 2 to 8, then 6 to 11, 11-17, -5 and -6. TN over the last few weeks has gone 15, 19, 22, 21, UR, which is a max net of -4.

 

[oldude]

The last time anyone other than UConn received a 1st place vote was on January 5, the first poll of the new year, when TX had 4 of the 32 1st place votes. The Longhorns lost later that week and UConn has earned all 32 1st place votes ever since.

 

[meyers7]

"Vols drop out"

 

[Vowelguy]

I think princeton is overrated but I have no problem with sticking in mid-majors at the bottom to give them some attention/reward.

Tenn is not underrated. TAMU is a bad team.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

I've noticed many examples of movements by the AP that don't make a lot of sense. The decision to rank Tennessee below Princeton is near the top of the list.

Princeton could beat TN. And probably the ENTIRE list of schools with fewer votes.

 

[bballnut90]

Not exactly. I tend to take ORV votes with a grain of salt. However ...

The mid-major teams (gosh I hate that moniker) like Fairfield get punished for not winning by a lot or losing by a little, and yet, TN and other teams get propped up, and when they start racking up losses, they aren't penalized as quickly.

In 2023-24, UConn lost to some ranked teams early in the season, and got pushed from 2 to 8, then 6 to 11, 11-17, -5 and -6. TN over the last few weeks has gone 15, 19, 22, 21, UR, which is a max net of -4.

The comparison to 2023-24 UCONN is apples and oranges:

-Early season rankings are typically more volatile as losses drop you further in the rankings early on. When UCONN was #17, they were 4-3 and their best win at that point was over an unranked Maryland team.

-If you're ranked higher and go on a losing skid, you have further to fall. UCONN was preseason #2 and lost 3 games in the first month of the season. Most teams ranked in the top 10-15 aren't losing more than 1 game early in the season.

-Comparatively, Tennessee was ranked 15th and dropped over a 4 week period late in the season when most teams in the 15-25 range are dropping numerous games like Tennessee did. Looking at teams ranked in the 15-25 range, you have:
-#15 Michigan State has lost 4 of their last 7
-#16 Kentucky has lost 6 of their last 9
-#18 Baylor has last 3 of their last 7
-#19 Ole Miss has lost 4 of their last 6
-#20 Texas Tech has lost 5 of their last 10
-#23 Georgia has lost 6 of their last 11
-#24 Alabama has lost 4 of their last 6
-#25 Princeton has lost 2 of their last 6 (both to unranked teams)

It's not like there are a slew of teams in that rankings range winning a lot of games and proving they should be ranked highly.

-Prior to A&M this week, Tennessee wasn't losing to bad teams. 3 of their 4 losses were to #1 UCONN, #3 South Carolina, and #4 Texas. The 4th loss was to Mississippi State who is a projected tournament team. Tennessee was expected to lose most of those games and teams aren't usually punished for losing to teams ranked above them. During that stretch they also beat a solid Georgia team (currently ranked #23) which helped prevent further free fall.

-Tennessee lost 3 games last week, including a bad loss to A&M. That more than anything else is likely the reason they dropped significantly, going from 21st last week to 28th this week. That's a drop of 7 spots rather than 4.

 

[CONNCAN]

Right now, the Tennessee WBB team is spiraling out of control. Their best player, Janiha Barker was left home for yesterday 's showdown with Oklahoma, due to, what has been reported as "Violation of Team Rules". Tennessee started the season with dismissing a key returning player, due to conduct unbecoming of a University of Tennessee Student Athlete. Add to this, you have your promising Star Freshman Point Guard sustain a Concussion during the South Carolina game, to subsequently miss the following 3 games, and has not been herself during the last 2. You have the Head Coach (who was the SEC Coach of the Year last season) having her coaching style be questioned (despite having it be successful last season). Tennessee has been a tremendously difficult place to coach, since the Pat Summit era. It is a mess right now. But beating LSU and Vandy would certainly put them back on track.

 

[MilfordHusky]

Largest ORV group this week - Colorado 23, Fairfield 18, Tennessee 12, Columbia 10, Rhode Island 7, N Dakota St 7, Virginia 6, Villanova 6, Southern Cal 5, Rice 4, Iowa St. 3, Syracuse 2, Illinois 2, Notre Dame 1, Washington 1, NC State 1.

Not sure I agree with TN getting this many votes, based on my eye test. They've lost 7 of last 9 games, 6 to SEC foes, got beat badly by UConn, outscored 787 to 619.

Tenn suffered their worst and third worst losses in their history. When they are bad, they are very bad.

 

[1974yankees]

Right now Tennessee is 16-10.. Their final two games are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU...

I wanna see if the Committee puts in a 16-13 Tennessee team (assuming they lose their first SEC tourney game too)

Even though Tennessee hasn't been good since Pat Summit was there, I still/always pay attention to them because they are Tennessee. Force of habit I guess.

 

[Vowelguy]

Right now Tennessee is 16-10.. Their final two games are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU...

I wanna see if the Committee puts in a 16-13 Tennessee team (assuming they lose their first SEC tourney game too)

Even though Tennessee hasn't been good since Pat Summit was there, I still/always pay attention to them because they are Tennessee. Force of habit I guess.

16-13 is slightly mitigated by playing the #1 sos schedule

 

[1974yankees]

16-13 is slightly mitigated by playing the #1 sos schedule

On the surface the "#1 sos" sounds impressive.. Except I just glanced over their entire schedule. Specifically their 10 losses. Almost all of them were really blowout losses. Except for the Texas and N.C. state game.

To be honest, I almost like it when Tennessee is/was good. It was the best rivalry in the history of the sport.

 

[oldude]

On the surface the "#1 sos" sounds impressive.. Except I just glanced over their entire schedule. Specifically their 10 losses. Almost all of them were really blowout losses. Except for the Texas and N.C. state game.

To be honest, I almost like it when Tennessee is/was good. It was the best rivalry in the history of the sport.

In addition to their 10 losses, many of their wins were against cupcakes during their OOC schedule. While they did play UCLA, UConn, Louisville, Stanford & NC State, there’s a bunch of teams like TN Martin, Winthrop, Southern IN, etc.

 

[meyers7]

Right now Tennessee is 16-10.. Their final two games are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU...

I wanna see if the Committee puts in a 16-13 Tennessee team (assuming they lose their first SEC tourney game too)

Even though Tennessee hasn't been good since Pat Summit was there, I still/always pay attention to them because they are Tennessee. Force of habit I guess.

TN will make it. The NCAA Committee is gonna put 8,9, possibly 10 SEC teams in the tournament. TN is probably gonna finish 7th in the SEC.

They could get a win the the SEC tournament 7/10 game (Alabama?). And they could get a win in the NCAA. But there is a decent chance they don't win 20 games this season.

 

[Tonyc]

I watch alot of WCBB games. The portal has helped many teams get good players. In many instances those portal players are band aids to fill a void or temporary void for the team. The problem with the portal players is being able to fit into a teams game plan and playing together as a team with poise discipline and being able to execute a game plan.

Many teams dont do these things. To many teams toss the ball around and then somebody trys to make a play and just shoots it and many times they dont take a good shot. Under pressure or in prime time you've got to be able to execute and know what you're doing. When the pressure is on and your thinking of executing you dont have negative thoughts running around in your head.

Now for defense. I hear announcers talk about this team or that team plays good defense. Most teams dont have 2 players who know how to play defense. When I watch teams that are ranked in the top 25 and then see them give up 75+ pts I think to myself where is the defense. Giving up 75+ pts doesnt make me consider them a good defensive team. Then I watch UConn. There is no comparison.

There are very few if any teams that can execute on both sides of the ball, that have bigs, that can shoot the trey and who have suffocating defense. This imo is why UConn is the team to beat. You can only hang in so long with UConn before their defense takes over.

 

[bballnut90]

Right now Tennessee is 16-10.. Their final two games are against #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU...

I wanna see if the Committee puts in a 16-13 Tennessee team (assuming they lose their first SEC tourney game too)

Even though Tennessee hasn't been good since Pat Summit was there, I still/always pay attention to them because they are Tennessee. Force of habit I guess.

Most people lose sight of the fact that most teams in the 6-11 seed range lose a lot of games and aren't usually very good teams, but they'll still make the tournament. Tennessee falls into this category.
I know they aren't popular on here but they're a lock for NCAAs. They have wins over Kentucky, Georgia and Alabama and only a couple of "bad" losses. If they lose to #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU it wont hurt their seeding. They likely will get a bye in the first round and will face one of Kentucky, Georgia or Alabama in the QF. If they lose that game it probably doesn't push them lower than an 8 seed which isn't close to bubble territory.

 

[bballnut90]

In addition to their 10 losses, many of their wins were against cupcakes during their OOC schedule. While they did play UCLA, UConn, Louisville, Stanford & NC State, there’s a bunch of teams like TN Martin, Winthrop, Southern IN, etc.

Every P4 in the country faces multiple cupcakes in non-conference. Even Duke who faced probably the toughest non-conference scehdule in the country had games against Liberty, Norfolk State, Holy Cross, Belmont, South Florida and South Dakota State.

 

[oldude]

Most people lose sight of the fact that most teams in the 6-11 seed range lose a lot of games and aren't usually very good teams, but they'll still make the tournament. Tennessee falls into this category.
I know they aren't popular on here but they're a lock for NCAAs. They have wins over Kentucky, Georgia and Alabama and only a couple of "bad" losses. If they lose to #5 Vanderbilt and #6 LSU it wont hurt their seeding. They likely will get a bye in the first round and will face one of Kentucky, Georgia or Alabama in the QF. If they lose that game it probably doesn't push them lower than an 8 seed which isn't close to bubble territory.

Yes, I think the LV’s just sneak into the Big Dance. The problem is that they won’t host. As a result TN will face a challenge right out of the box in their 1st or 2nd game, on the road after a disappointing season.