AP top 25 1/1

[Plebe]

Top 8 remain unchanged.

West Virginia falls from #9 to #12.
UCLA falls from #11 to #14.
Duke falls from #14 to #17.
Villanova falls from #18 to #21.
Iowa jumps from #23 to #18.
Stanford re-enters at #24.
Arizona State re-enters at #25.
Green Bay and South Florida fall out.

I find it odd that Arizona State moved ahead of South Florida after simply beating a pair of unranked teams.

 

[huskeynut]

I too am surprised that South Florida dropped out.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Surprised South Carolina staying ahead of Mississippi State... especially given 2 point last second win over Texas AM

 

[Plebe]

Surprised South Carolina staying ahead of Mississippi State... especially given 2 point last second win over Texas AM

Only by the narrowest of margins: 3 points in the vote count.
AP Women's Basketball Poll Week 9

 

[triaddukefan]

I too am surprised that South Florida dropped out.

Whats South Florida best win this season? LSU ? St Johns?

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

Only by the narrowest of margins: 3 points in the vote count.
AP Women's Basketball Poll Week 9

True, true... BUT, MSST is still undefeated, and So Carolina lost 1 and almost 2nd... and, I think Wilson could have been called for charging on the game winner.

 

[Plebe]

Whats South Florida best win this season? LSU ? St Johns?

There are plenty of teams in the lower part of the top 25 without impressive wins.

 

[Plebe]

True, true... BUT, MSST is still undefeated, and So Carolina lost 1 and almost 2nd... and, I think Wilson could have been called for charging on the game winner.

But South Carolina lost to a top 5 team. And Oregon is the best team Miss St has played. And if we're penalizing for barely beating teams, Miss St only narrowly beat Oklahoma State.

Don't get me wrong; I would have voted Miss St ahead of SC several weeks ago. But I don't think the AP voters put a microscope to the officiating in determining their placement of teams.

 

[Sluconn Husky]

 

[wallman]

Is the PAC overrated in a reactionary way? I ask, because in my opinion, this year is down compared to last year and the previous years. Or is basketball down in general below the top 1, 2 or 3? I have been disappointed, not only in my Bruins, but also in the level of play of the other teams. The scouting or lack there of is painfully obvious and seems to be due to players being unable to follow any kind of game plan which limits a teams strengths. The beat down of Cal was enjoyable but when you think of how the PAC teams used to play each other, this was very lopsided and then we play like doodoo in other games.

 

[Plebe]

Is the PAC overrated in a reactionary way? I ask, because in my opinion, this year is down compared to last year and the previous years. Or is basketball down in general below the top 1, 2 or 3? I have been disappointed, not only in my Bruins, but also in the level of play of the other teams. The scouting or lack there of is painfully obvious and seems to be due to players being unable to follow any kind of game plan which limits a teams strengths. The beat down of Cal was enjoyable but when you think of how the PAC teams used to play each other, this was very lopsided and then we play like doodoo in other games.

Do you mean overrated in the top 25 rankings? At this point the teams are more or less where they should be, I think.

I do agree that the Pac-12 as a whole is slightly down from last year, and this seems to be borne out in the RPI and power ratings.

I think that UCLA is continuing its trend from last year of being highly inconsistent on the road (losses at Oklahoma State and at Stanford) but much stronger at home (as seen in the win over Baylor and in parts of the loss to UConn). The beatdown of Cal was UCLA's much needed response to their loss at Stanford. Last year the opposite happened: UCLA lost at Cal and then, needing to right the ship, won a rare game at Maples.

I actually think that Stanford did a masterful job of scouting and preparation in taking away UCLA's strengths and forcing them into their weakness (outside shooting).

 

[LoTrader]

Do you mean overrated in the top 25 rankings? At this point the teams are more or less where they should be, I think.

I do agree that the Pac-12 as a whole is slightly down from last year, and this seems to be borne out in the RPI and power ratings.

I think that UCLA is continuing its trend from last year of being highly inconsistent on the road (losses at Oklahoma State and at Stanford) but much stronger at home (as seen in the win over Baylor and in parts of the loss to UConn). The beatdown of Cal was UCLA's much needed response to their loss at Stanford. Last year the opposite happened: UCLA lost at Cal and then, needing to right the ship, won a rare game at Maples.

I actually think that Stanford did a masterful job of scouting and preparation in taking away UCLA's strengths and forcing them into their weakness (outside shooting).

Much to be learned about the PAC 12 teams in the next 3 weekends. Will any PAC12 team be undefeated in conference play after the next 3 weekends? I'd say unlikely.

 

[huskeynut]

Upon a little research - South Florida lost to unranked Michigan State by double digits. Being at 25 the week before, the Stamford win was enough to knock the Bulls to 26th.

 

[Plebe]

Upon a little research - South Florida lost to unranked Michigan State by double digits. Being at 25 the week before, the Stamford win was enough to knock the Bulls to 26th.

The loss to Michigan State was the previous week, and that was what dropped USF to 25 from wherever they were previously.

No surprise that Stanford, after beating UCLA, moved ahead of USF. The surprise is that Arizona State, without beating any ranked teams, has done so.

 

[UConnCat]

Is the PAC overrated in a reactionary way? I ask, because in my opinion, this year is down compared to last year and the previous years. Or is basketball down in general below the top 1, 2 or 3? I have been disappointed, not only in my Bruins, but also in the level of play of the other teams. The scouting or lack there of is painfully obvious and seems to be due to players being unable to follow any kind of game plan which limits a teams strengths. The beat down of Cal was enjoyable but when you think of how the PAC teams used to play each other, this was very lopsided and then we play like doodoo in other games.

May be a little premature for me to agree -- I haven't watched enough basketball this season -- but the little I have watched leads me to think that basketball may be down this season. Against Louisville yesterday NC State did not make one basket in the 1st quarter and managed to make 4 in the 2nd quarter. NC State scored 1 point in the 1st quarter and a total of 12 points in the 1st half. Despite this gross ineptitude Louisville only managed to win by 8 points. I watched a bit of the Tennessee v Kentucky game and was stunned by Kentucky's inability to make open shots. Tennessee looked good in the 1st quarter and pretty average for the remainder of the game. There were several games yesterday in which highly ranked teams scored 4 or 7 or 9 points in a quarter and barely more than 20 in a half.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

But South Carolina lost to a top 5 team. And Oregon is the best team Miss St has played. And if we're penalizing for barely beating teams, Miss St only narrowly beat Oklahoma State.

Don't get me wrong; I would have voted Miss St ahead of SC several weeks ago. But I don't think the AP voters put a microscope to the officiating in determining their placement of teams.

Ok, ok... I get it... it is still surprising IMHO. My point about the potential charging by Wilson on final play was not that voters would consider it, or even know ... but that had it been called, they may well have lost game #2.

 

[BostonCanuck]

The one I'm struggling with most is Louisville at #3. Yes they're undefeated, but they've also had a couple of really close games against middling teams. I guess we'll get a better picture on January 11 when they take on Notre Dame at home.

 

[Plebe]

Ok, ok... I get it... it is still surprising IMHO. My point about the potential charging by Wilson on final play was not that voters would consider it, or even know ... but that had it been called, they may well have lost game #2.

I didn't see anything on that play that the referees could have realistically called. It looked like A'ja may have been using her right arm just a little bit, but that would have been a hugely controversial call if it had been made.

The call that was badly missed was a few minutes earlier when Carter was fouled on the arm on a jump shot in the lane. Gary Blair almost lost his mind.

 

[PAHuskeyFan]

I didn't see anything on that play that the referees could have realistically called. It looked like A'ja may have been using her right arm just a little bit, but that would have been a hugely controversial call if it had been made.

The call that was badly missed was a few minutes earlier when Carter was fouled on the arm on a jump shot in the lane. Gary Blair almost lost his mind.

So u saw what I saw.. a right arm swing by Wilson to clear a path... i did not say it was clear and definitive foul, but fouls have been called for less.... but as you said, would be controversial... especially in a game played in SC.

 

[Plebe]

So u saw what I saw.. a right arm swing by Wilson to clear a path... i did not say it was clear and definitive foul, but fouls have been called for less.... but as you said, would be controversial... especially in a game played in SC.

Not just controversial with the home fans. It would have been a very soft foul call. If you're talking about a "swing" of the arm, it would have to be something that actually displaced the defender, which would have been a big stretch. There was plenty of contact and it wasn't just one way. I think the no-call was the right call.

 

[Plebe]

And we have our first shakeup to this week's top 25: Butler goes on the road and upset #21 Villanova, 76-53, with a dominant second half (45-24).

After starting the season 10-0, including a big win over Duke, Villanova has now lost 2 of its last 3 games.

Will this be the break that opens the door to South Florida's re-entry?

 

[Fightin Choke]

And we have our first shakeup to this week's top 25: Butler goes on the road and upset #21 Villanova, 76-53, with a dominant second half (45-24).

After starting the season 10-0, including a big win over Duke, Villanova has now lost 2 of its last 3 games.

Will this be the break that opens the door to South Florida's re-entry?

I doubt it, as USF plays UConn this Saturday (1/6).

 

[Plebe]

I doubt it, as USF plays UConn this Saturday (1/6).

Yes but we have seen before how teams tend not to be penalized for losing to UConn.

 

[DefenseBB]

I want to ask a question that will require analytical vs. emotional responses- yes, we want to be rooting for AAC teams but with some legitimacy on valid success. Why do many on here want to over value USF? Seriously, name top 20 teams that they have beaten vs. the number of losses they have incurred (besides UConn)? Seriously, what constitutes them to be included in the Top 25? Just because they may be the second best AAC team? I will say I am saddened by the step back most of the AAC teams seem to have taken this year-UCF, Tulane, SMU with Temple crippled by a key injury. Memphis had 7 players and while they gave a valiant effort, they were just not good. Is Houston legit? They have no significant wins, thought their 3 losses are to good teams. Cincy? Sorry Janelle but you lost to St.Francis on top of not playing anyone other than tOSU. So if we are analytical, no AAC team is really worthy. The good new is we should see if our subs develop enough to get to solid 8/9 players.

 

[Plebe]

I want to ask a question that will require analytical vs. emotional responses- yes, we want to be rooting for AAC teams but with some legitimacy on valid success. Why do many on here want to over value USF? Seriously, name top 20 teams that they have beaten vs. the number of losses they have incurred (besides UConn)? Seriously, what constitutes them to be included in the Top 25? Just because they may be the second best AAC team? I will say I am saddened by the step back most of the AAC teams seem to have taken this year-UCF, Tulane, SMU with Temple crippled by a key injury. Memphis had 7 players and while they gave a valiant effort, they were just not good. Is Houston legit? They have no significant wins, thought their 3 losses are to good teams. Cincy? Sorry Janelle but you lost to St.Francis on top of not playing anyone other than tOSU. So if we are analytical, no AAC team is really worthy. The good new is we should see if our subs develop enough to get to solid 8/9 players.

These are all good questions to reflect on. I wouldn't advocate for anyone to overvalued, and it's a bit of a reflex for me to want to see USF among the ranked teams.

However, USF is currently #26 in the Massey ratings and #17 in Sagarin. These numbers suggest it's a team that can reasonably aspire to be top 25, even if its results thus far are not so convincing.

USF's best wins so far are (by Massey/Sagarin rating): LSU (39/48), St. John's (48/43), Dayton (65/61), and Washington St (64/73).
USF's losses: Notre Dame (2/6), Michigan State (30/22), and Oklahoma (46/32).
Not a great resume, but not horrible either.

If we look at other teams near the bottom of the AP top 25, we see similar weaknesses in resume. For example:
— #22 Michigan's only top-100 wins are over Marquette, Penn State, and Ohio.
— #23 Cal's only top-100 wins are over USC, Saint Mary's, and Kentucky.
— #25 Arizona State's only top-100 wins are over Buffalo, Utah, Colorado, and Arkansas.

 

[triaddukefan]

Villanova Hope they dont do a 2016-17 Vandy

I want to ask a question that will require analytical vs. emotional responses- yes, we want to be rooting for AAC teams but with some legitimacy on valid success. Why do many on here want to over value USF? Seriously, name top 20 teams that they have beaten vs. the number of losses they have incurred (besides UConn)? Seriously, what constitutes them to be included in the Top 25? Just because they may be the second best AAC team? .

See if I would have written that... Plebe would have said I was hating pn the Bulls

 

[DefenseBB]

These are all good questions to reflect on. I wouldn't advocate for anyone to overvalued, and it's a bit of a reflex for me to want to see USF among the ranked teams.

However, USF is currently #26 in the Massey ratings and #17 in Sagarin. These numbers suggest it's a team that can reasonably aspire to be top 25, even if its results thus far are not so convincing.

USF's best wins so far are (by Massey/Sagarin rating): LSU (39/48), St. John's (48/43), Dayton (65/61), and Washington St (64/73).
USF's losses: Notre Dame (2/6), Michigan State (30/22), and Oklahoma (46/32).
Not a great resume, but not horrible either.

If we look at other teams near the bottom of the AP top 25, we see similar weaknesses in resume. For example:
— #22 Michigan's only top-100 wins are over Marquette, Penn State, and Ohio.
— #23 Cal's only top-100 wins are over USC, Saint Mary's, and Kentucky.
— #25 Arizona State's only top-100 wins are over Buffalo, Utah, Colorado, and Arkansas.

Plebe, I appreciate the analysis as I do hear you (and I mean that in the sincerest sense, as you make me validate my stance, which is a good thing), however you also make my point in that if you are a top 25 team, you beat other top 25 team and USF just hasn’t done that in like EVER. If you are top 25 should you not at least make a sweet 16? Their best success has been 2nd round. Though they did win the WNIT in 2009...
Each year for these past 5 years we hear about them, then come NCAA time, they stumble and add in my irritation with Jose’s penchant for a boatload of foreign players and I am on a “hair trigger” with them. Just win a few top 25 games and I will become a believer but until then, stop the hype. Again, thank you for your analysis-you’re a good man!

 

[DefenseBB]

Villanova Hope they dont do a 2016-17 Vandy




See if I would have written that... Plebe would have said I was hating pn the Bulls

That’s pretty funny and probably accurate. Mostly due to the old adage, I can fight with my brother but others can’t. Feel free to slam your fellow ACC teams however!
BTW, I watched the Blue Devils get JPM her 600th victory and Odom looked good. Then what the heck happened? Here is what I do want to give props for: given the debacle that occurred in 2015-16 with the program, JPM has responded/modified her style nicely and seems to have evolved so I do want to give her credit there. I want to root for her but am guarded on any impending implosions I fear may come. I would love for them to truly contend with ND and Lou for the ACC Title yearly, like they used to do.
Anyway happy new year to you and yours!

 

[Phil]

"...if you are a top 25 team, you beat other top 25 team..."

On the surface, this sounds plausible but with deeper analysis it's not quite so simple.

Let's start with who you are supposed to beat if you are a top 25 team. To start with, you can't just be a top 25 team, you must be at some position in the top 25. USF was right on the cusp; ranked 25th in the AP poll and now 22nd and the coaches poll. Who are you supposed to be able to beat if you are number 25? In theory, nobody.

However, for multiple reasons, we anticipate that the team ranked number 25 should have occasional wins against teams in the top 25, even if they are expected to have a losing record. So, for example, if you play numbers 20, 21, 22, 23 and number 24, not expect to win them all or even most but you are to be able to win one or two. I'll bet that, if you compile enough data, will see that this happens. (I don't think you will disagree with that and I don't miss that the question is how would South Florida do in those games.)

The problem is that South Florida doesn't have any of those teams on its schedule. They only played one top 25 team so far (using Massey ratings) and that was Notre Dame ranked number two. Surely you aren't expected to have to beat Notre Dame to deserve a top 25 rating? They did play them within 10.

More troubling, to be sure is two losses to teams outside the top 25. The Oklahoma loss strings the most; the loss to Michigan State hurts but Massey has them at number 30 so not very far outside the top 25.

Their upcoming schedule isn't going to shed a lot of light on the situation. Two games against Connecticut but neither are likely to be wins. With one other exception the strongest remaining team is Houston at number 72. That one exception is Ohio State, but it's a stretch to argue you need to be the 10th ranked team in the nation to deserve a spot in the top 25.

 

[Phil]

Speaking of Ohio State, how have they done?

Earlier in the season, the resume looked decent with a solid win over number 10 ranked Stanford. They played Stanford again and won again although this time in overtime. However, as we have seen, the resume of Stanford may have been overrated at the time.

Stanford actually dropped out of the poll for a week. They are back in the poll but my guess is that this is more due to human voters having confidence that Tara can right the ship that it has to a belief that their body of work deserves a top 25 ranking. Sagarin has them at number 26 while Massey has the number 24, so even if top 25, just barely top 25.

They have no other wins against top 25 teams so they are a breath away from having zero wins against top 25 teams yet ranked number 10.

Please note: I'm not arguing that their rating is unwarranted — almost the opposite — I'm trying to illustrate the a team can legitimately be in the top 25 even well up in the top 25 without a single top 25 win.