AP top 25 1/1

[triaddukefan]

Villanova Hope they dont do a 2016-17 Vandy

I want to ask a question that will require analytical vs. emotional responses- yes, we want to be rooting for AAC teams but with some legitimacy on valid success. Why do many on here want to over value USF? Seriously, name top 20 teams that they have beaten vs. the number of losses they have incurred (besides UConn)? Seriously, what constitutes them to be included in the Top 25? Just because they may be the second best AAC team? .

See if I would have written that... Plebe would have said I was hating pn the Bulls

 

[DefenseBB]

These are all good questions to reflect on. I wouldn't advocate for anyone to overvalued, and it's a bit of a reflex for me to want to see USF among the ranked teams.

However, USF is currently #26 in the Massey ratings and #17 in Sagarin. These numbers suggest it's a team that can reasonably aspire to be top 25, even if its results thus far are not so convincing.

USF's best wins so far are (by Massey/Sagarin rating): LSU (39/48), St. John's (48/43), Dayton (65/61), and Washington St (64/73).
USF's losses: Notre Dame (2/6), Michigan State (30/22), and Oklahoma (46/32).
Not a great resume, but not horrible either.

If we look at other teams near the bottom of the AP top 25, we see similar weaknesses in resume. For example:
— #22 Michigan's only top-100 wins are over Marquette, Penn State, and Ohio.
— #23 Cal's only top-100 wins are over USC, Saint Mary's, and Kentucky.
— #25 Arizona State's only top-100 wins are over Buffalo, Utah, Colorado, and Arkansas.

Plebe, I appreciate the analysis as I do hear you (and I mean that in the sincerest sense, as you make me validate my stance, which is a good thing), however you also make my point in that if you are a top 25 team, you beat other top 25 team and USF just hasn’t done that in like EVER. If you are top 25 should you not at least make a sweet 16? Their best success has been 2nd round. Though they did win the WNIT in 2009...
Each year for these past 5 years we hear about them, then come NCAA time, they stumble and add in my irritation with Jose’s penchant for a boatload of foreign players and I am on a “hair trigger” with them. Just win a few top 25 games and I will become a believer but until then, stop the hype. Again, thank you for your analysis-you’re a good man!

 

[DefenseBB]

Villanova Hope they dont do a 2016-17 Vandy




See if I would have written that... Plebe would have said I was hating pn the Bulls

That’s pretty funny and probably accurate. Mostly due to the old adage, I can fight with my brother but others can’t. Feel free to slam your fellow ACC teams however!
BTW, I watched the Blue Devils get JPM her 600th victory and Odom looked good. Then what the heck happened? Here is what I do want to give props for: given the debacle that occurred in 2015-16 with the program, JPM has responded/modified her style nicely and seems to have evolved so I do want to give her credit there. I want to root for her but am guarded on any impending implosions I fear may come. I would love for them to truly contend with ND and Lou for the ACC Title yearly, like they used to do.
Anyway happy new year to you and yours!

 

[Phil]

"...if you are a top 25 team, you beat other top 25 team..."

On the surface, this sounds plausible but with deeper analysis it's not quite so simple.

Let's start with who you are supposed to beat if you are a top 25 team. To start with, you can't just be a top 25 team, you must be at some position in the top 25. USF was right on the cusp; ranked 25th in the AP poll and now 22nd and the coaches poll. Who are you supposed to be able to beat if you are number 25? In theory, nobody.

However, for multiple reasons, we anticipate that the team ranked number 25 should have occasional wins against teams in the top 25, even if they are expected to have a losing record. So, for example, if you play numbers 20, 21, 22, 23 and number 24, not expect to win them all or even most but you are to be able to win one or two. I'll bet that, if you compile enough data, will see that this happens. (I don't think you will disagree with that and I don't miss that the question is how would South Florida do in those games.)

The problem is that South Florida doesn't have any of those teams on its schedule. They only played one top 25 team so far (using Massey ratings) and that was Notre Dame ranked number two. Surely you aren't expected to have to beat Notre Dame to deserve a top 25 rating? They did play them within 10.

More troubling, to be sure is two losses to teams outside the top 25. The Oklahoma loss strings the most; the loss to Michigan State hurts but Massey has them at number 30 so not very far outside the top 25.

Their upcoming schedule isn't going to shed a lot of light on the situation. Two games against Connecticut but neither are likely to be wins. With one other exception the strongest remaining team is Houston at number 72. That one exception is Ohio State, but it's a stretch to argue you need to be the 10th ranked team in the nation to deserve a spot in the top 25.

 

[Phil]

Speaking of Ohio State, how have they done?

Earlier in the season, the resume looked decent with a solid win over number 10 ranked Stanford. They played Stanford again and won again although this time in overtime. However, as we have seen, the resume of Stanford may have been overrated at the time.

Stanford actually dropped out of the poll for a week. They are back in the poll but my guess is that this is more due to human voters having confidence that Tara can right the ship that it has to a belief that their body of work deserves a top 25 ranking. Sagarin has them at number 26 while Massey has the number 24, so even if top 25, just barely top 25.

They have no other wins against top 25 teams so they are a breath away from having zero wins against top 25 teams yet ranked number 10.

Please note: I'm not arguing that their rating is unwarranted — almost the opposite — I'm trying to illustrate the a team can legitimately be in the top 25 even well up in the top 25 without a single top 25 win.

 

[Plebe]

If you are top 25 should you not at least make a sweet 16? Their best success has been 2nd round.

But only 16 teams make the Sweet 16, which means that even if all results holds perfectly to form, you'd have exactly 9 top-25 teams who can't reach the Sweet 16.

 

[MSSportsGuy]

Or is basketball down in general below the top 1, 2 or 3? I have been disappointed, not only in my Bruins, but also in the level of play of the other teams.

The game in general has only minor parity. One reason UConn looks so good is many other teams can't compete with Geno and it has the best fan base. It was UT and UConn until shortly before Pat's illness with a few other programs having some good runs. MSU and SC weren't really in the top half of the SEC until Vic and Dawn took over. ND and Baylor have put together some strong teams the past few years but it's produced one title.

Not many schools put a ton of resources towards the sport and the talent level basically congregates at just a few programs. It isn't a bad thing but it does limit the exposure of the game. If the super classes at Texas, UT, Baylor all stay together then it would put them in a strong position to contend again.

 

[DefenseBB]

But only 16 teams make the Sweet 16, which means that even if all results holds perfectly to form, you'd have exactly 9 top-25 teams who can't reach the Sweet 16.

Hence the ability to BEAT some top 25 teams to make it to the next level. And let’s face it, plenty of non-16 seeds (top 4 in each region) make it to the Sweet 16, so “show me” you can win a game like that instead of never winning a game like that. That’s all I am saying.
Thanks for the math chuckle though (top 16 vs. 25), I liked that...

 

[Fightin Choke]

Yes but we have seen before how teams tend not to be penalized for losing to UConn.

What about when the team loses by 51 at home? In this case USF dropped from 26th (64 points) to 28th (24 points).

 

[Phil]

What about when the team loses by 51 at home? In this case USF dropped from 26th (64 points) to 28th (24 points).

In the coaches poll, they moved UP two spots.

 

[Fightin Choke]

In the coaches poll, they moved UP two spots.

Of course this thread is about the AP, but I was stunned by the rise in the coaches' poll (which of course is the SID poll). I trust the AP more.

 

[Plebe]

What about when the team loses by 51 at home? In this case USF dropped from 26th (64 points) to 28th (24 points).

Well that's different, I guess.