From what I'm seeing, Creme's latest — as of 2/11, which was before Dayton lost to VCU yesterday — has Dayton as the AQ and listed Rhode Island as among the "first 4 out". This suggests URI would be very near the cut line if they lose in the A-10 tournament.
For now RI's best wins are over Princeton and UMass, but they also have losses to Buffalo, Long Beach State (ouch) and Holy Cross (holy ouch!).
Beating Dayton in at least one, and preferably both, of their upcoming two games will go a long way toward supporting Rhode Island's at-large prospects.