AP Ranking question

[HuskyFan1125]

I was looking over the preseason rankings and just had some questions.

I am not only asking fellow Boneyarders for help but also fans on the teams that I have some questions about.


Q1. Why is Stanford ranked so high? I really like Tara and Stanford is one of the teams I cheer for when not playing UCONN. Besides the poorly researched articles in magazines (they keep mentioning Kokenis), most sports writers have the Cardinal ranked anywhere from 3-5. Why? I get that they have Chiney coming back but I think losing Tinkle and Kokenis will be a big deal. IMO losing Kokenis is why Stanford fell to Georgia in the E8. Guard play. They do return Amber Orrange but I am just not yet convinced that Cardinal is going to blow through the PAC12 and NCAA field.


Q2. Why is California ranked outside the top 10 or about 8-10. I think the Golden Bears will be better than most think. yes, they lost Claredon and Caldwell but I think Gennifer Brandon and Brittany Boyd is a good place to start. Lets not forget Jemerigbe is also a returning starter and Reshanda Gray, who won an Olympic gold medal this summer, will likely start this year in place of Caldwell. Gray is much more mobile than Caldwell and should still keep Cal dominant in the paint. IMO also I think Courtney Range could be PAC12 Freshman of the Year?

Q3. Is everyone discounting Louisville? Louisville returns all 5 starters and 3 players that likely would have been starters had they not been injured. I think Louisville could be a very dangerous team this season.

Q4. Are people overlooking Kentucky? The Wildcats only lost Adia Mathies but add Linnae Harper who I think will have a great career as a Wildcat. Stallworth and Walker will have the interior anchored and with Kentucky's defensive style they could really pull out games with their defensive pressure in the backcourt and the new 10second rule.

Q5. Not completely sure about Tennessee, are they for real? I have many questions about the Volunteers. Losing Spani and Williams was a lot. Simmons has 'got' to be a better facilitator instead of shooting every time she gets the ball. Also, adding Russell is good for them but she is a freshman. I think Harrison is the starting center and Russell will be worked into playing time based on games. And may I add IMO not the top freshman. I would go with DeShields or Harper for that early season award. I think DeShields should have been #1 in the class.


Just some questions. I may have forgotten some things but just wondering about those things. Comments welcome

 

[stwainfan]

Q1 I think they are too high.
Q2 I am not sure.
Q3 I think some are overlooking them.
Q4 I think Kentucky will be a team to watch.
Q5 I think Tennessee will be a very good team. Adding the top recruit in the country.

 

[Vowelguy]

(1) Kokenis was out mid season, so one could argue they return all except one from an elite 8 team. And they have some good frosh. And does anyone return from injury?

(2) Cal lost their PG and best player to graduation. It's hard to go far with a new pg.

(4) same issue. Loss of floor leader is huge.

(5) tenn lost 2 role players and they get back their pg from injury and add the top hs player to a team that won the sec

 

[UcMiami]

Good questions all! My take:
1. Habit - Stanford has been a FF team 5 years in a row until they slipped last year and people just assume. They still have a O sister so they have a chance, but I tend to agree they are being over-ranked.
2. Habit - Pac12 has been Stanford and everyone else for so long and Cal has never really sustained a good result into a string of them. Not sure how high they should be ranked but I think 8-10 is probably about right until they prove something.
3. Louisville caught lightening last year and they have a lot coming back plus folks returning from injury, but ... meh, are the returning players any better than the ones they were playing? And can they have the same results within the new rules? Personally I see them as having a large roster of good players but no great ones. Will they have as great a run next year in the NCAA - not all that likely.
4. KY reminds me sort of LV - they have lots of good players and a system that will get them to the NCAA but probably not as far as the FF. Agree about Harper being a really good player but ...
5. TN - agree ... Need to see them take a team to the FF before I rank them that high. It has been a long time with a lot of 'shocking' losses along the way. They looked pretty good last year after yet another shocker on opening night, but ... Russell will be good, but not Parker good.

With all of that said ... you have to vote for someone in the 2-7 range. Duke - see what I said about TN, why haven't they gotten to a FF yet?, ND - I actually see Diggins loss in the same way as I saw Uconn after DT, do all the players that looked so good with everyone focused on Diggins have what it takes to do it on their own now?, Maryland - they looked really good while being decimated with injuries last year, but do I really trust Freese? etc. etc.

 

[EricLA]

(1) Kokenis was out mid season, so one could argue they return all except one from an elite 8 team. And they have some good frosh. And does anyone return from injury?

(2) Cal lost their PG and best player to graduation. It's hard to go far with a new pg.

(4) same issue. Loss of floor leader is huge.

(5) tenn lost 2 role players and they get back their pg from injury and add the top hs player to a team that won the sec

Role players? Towards the end of the season and during the NCAA's, they were the 2 best players on the team. Overall I still think Graves was their top player and they get her back, but they lost a lot of experience and 2 starters from their team that lost in the elite 8. I expect them to be better, but they certainly did not lose a pair of role players.

 

[doggydaddy]

(1) Kokenis was out mid season, so one could argue they return all except one from an elite 8 team. And they have some good frosh. And does anyone return from injury?

(2) Cal lost their PG and best player to graduation. It's hard to go far with a new pg.

(4) same issue. Loss of floor leader is huge.

(5) tenn lost 2 role players and they get back their pg from injury and add the top hs player to a team that won the sec

This post will explain to people why you ignore me.

2 and 4. So, they will miss their point guards but ND will not? You said it's hard to go far with a new PG and loss of a floor leader is huge. I would think this would apply to the loss of Diggins.

5. Tenn lost two players who were starters the last 8 games. I guess you subscribe to the new and improved chemistry. It must have been those two players.

 

[triaddukefan]

(1) Kokenis was out mid season, so one could argue they return all except one from an elite 8 team. And they have some good frosh. And does anyone return from injury?

(2) Cal lost their PG and best player to graduation. It's hard to go far with a new pg.

(4) same issue. Loss of floor leader is huge.

(5) tenn lost 2 role players and they get back their pg from injury and add the top hs player to a team that won the sec

Actually the PG for Cal returns. Its the SG that they lost.

 

[UConnCat]

Role players? Towards the end of the season and during the NCAA's, they were the 2 best players on the team. Overall I still think Graves was their top player and they get her back, but they lost a lot of experience and 2 starters from their team that lost in the elite 8. I expect them to be better, but they certainly did not lose a pair of role players.

Spani and Williams were Tennessee's leading scorers in the NCAA tournament last year.

 

[Vowelguy]

Role players? Towards the end of the season and during the NCAA's, they were the 2 best players on the team. Overall I still think Graves was their top player and they get her back, but they lost a lot of experience and 2 starters from their team that lost in the elite 8. I expect them to be better, but they certainly did not lose a pair of role players.

Tomatoe, tomato.
Point is: they won the SEC, made the E8, and are expected to be better this year.

 

[stwainfan]

Tennessee has a game on Monday night. Yes I know it's against Carson Newman. The game won't tell us a lot. We will get to see where the team is at this point. See how the freshman look and how much the retuning players have improved.

 

[Fightin Choke]

This post will explain to people why you ignore me.

2 and 4. So, they will miss their point guards but ND will not? You said it's hard to go far with a new PG and loss of a floor leader is huge. I would think this would apply to the loss of Diggins.

5. Tenn lost two players who were starters the last 8 games. I guess you subscribe to the new and improved chemistry. It must have been those two players.

Vowelguy is definitely of the opinion that the loss of Diggins will hurt ND (LINK and LINK and LINK). Maybe he has you on ignore with the site's software, but you're also ignoring his posts subconsciously! And in response to #5, he never said Tennessee will benefit from improved chemistry, so you're pretty much putting words in his mouth there. (Could that be the reason he has you on ignore?)

 

[doggydaddy]

Tennessee has a game on Monday night. Yes I know it's against Carson Newman. The game won't tell us a lot. We will get to see where the team is at this point. See how the freshman look and how much the retuning players have improved.

They lost to UNC 111-50.

I give them a lot of credit for playing two top ten teams.

If the game won't tell us a lot, how will we get to see where the team is at this point?

 

[stwainfan]

They lost to UNC 111-50.

I give them a lot of credit for playing two top ten teams.

If the game won't tell us a lot, how will we get to see where the team is at this point?

I was saying this is the teams first game. So we will see how the defense and offense look at this point. I will watch the game. Holly did say on media day. That Jasmine Jones is the best athlete on the team. That she has refined her offense. I am anxious to see how she looks. Yes I give Carson Newman credit also.

 

[Fightin Choke]

I was looking over the preseason rankings and just had some questions.

I am not only asking fellow Boneyarders for help but also fans on the teams that I have some questions about.


Q1. Why is Stanford ranked so high? I really like Tara and Stanford is one of the teams I cheer for when not playing UCONN. Besides the poorly researched articles in magazines (they keep mentioning Kokenis), most sports writers have the Cardinal ranked anywhere from 3-5. Why? I get that they have Chiney coming back but I think losing Tinkle and Kokenis will be a big deal. IMO losing Kokenis is why Stanford fell to Georgia in the E8. Guard play. They do return Amber Orrange but I am just not yet convinced that Cardinal is going to blow through the PAC12 and NCAA field.


Q2. Why is California ranked outside the top 10 or about 8-10. I think the Golden Bears will be better than most think. yes, they lost Claredon and Caldwell but I think Gennifer Brandon and Brittany Boyd is a good place to start. Lets not forget Jemerigbe is also a returning starter and Reshanda Gray, who won an Olympic gold medal this summer, will likely start this year in place of Caldwell. Gray is much more mobile than Caldwell and should still keep Cal dominant in the paint. IMO also I think Courtney Range could be PAC12 Freshman of the Year?

Q3. Is everyone discounting Louisville? Louisville returns all 5 starters and 3 players that likely would have been starters had they not been injured. I think Louisville could be a very dangerous team this season.

Q4. Are people overlooking Kentucky? The Wildcats only lost Adia Mathies but add Linnae Harper who I think will have a great career as a Wildcat. Stallworth and Walker will have the interior anchored and with Kentucky's defensive style they could really pull out games with their defensive pressure in the backcourt and the new 10second rule.

Q5. Not completely sure about Tennessee, are they for real? I have many questions about the Volunteers. Losing Spani and Williams was a lot. Simmons has 'got' to be a better facilitator instead of shooting every time she gets the ball. Also, adding Russell is good for them but she is a freshman. I think Harrison is the starting center and Russell will be worked into playing time based on games. And may I add IMO not the top freshman. I would go with DeShields or Harper for that early season award. I think DeShields should have been #1 in the class.


Just some questions. I may have forgotten some things but just wondering about those things. Comments welcome

Q1: Stanford will win the PAC12 pretty easily this season, so they will have a lofty ranking even if they aren't as good as last season (as they lost Tinkle, Kokenis, and Beebe). Cal may have lost more and UCLA and Colorado definitely lost more, so the Cardinal will be #1 in the West and thus top 5. Don't ask me to explain why they are 3rd in the country as I have no idea. Force of habit?

Q2: Cal lost their best player and best scorer and that hurts for a team that had trouble scoring. Plus Brandon is injured to start the season, and she is one of the two most important stars remaining. I really don't see them in the top 5.

Q3: Louisville really wasn't that good last season until the tourney, and their only truly stunning tournament victory was over Baylor. They were favored (in my mind) against Tennessee and Cal, as both teams relied so much on offensive rebounding and neither shot the ball well.

Q4: Mathies was really good. Harper is a stud and I except her to help a lot, so I think they'll be pretty good, but not top 5. Do they have anyone who can hit a jumper?

Q5: I have no idea if there are for real, but they're in my top 5. Their losses are less than most teams and they were unlucky with injuries last season. I think they would be better if they just returned everyone, but I think Russell will help as well.

 

[EricLA]

Tomatoe, tomato.
Point is: they won the SEC, made the E8, and are expected to be better this year.

Not really. You called Spani and Williams role players. That is wrong IMHO.

 

[Phil]

The Tennessee Carson-Newman matchups have an odd affinity for round number margins. The last five years MOV:

• 80
• 90
• 50
• 65
• 60

You have to go back to 2007-08 when the margin was 61, to get a non-round number.

None of those teams made it to the Final Four, so if this team is better than in the last five years, well, you still can't say much without knowing how good CN is, but I'd say a margin of 60 or 70 would be cause for concern. They won by 90 in 2008-09 and that team still didn't make it to the FF, so do they need a triple digit win to make a statement? Probably not, but I'm predicting they win by 65, and claim to feel good about it. Even that wouldn't be much more than the win by UNC, so should be troubling. Anything under 80 should be a red flag.

Edit: Well, CN finished fifth in the SAC last year, and is picked to finish fifth this year. Not a solid data point, but it means people close to the program think they are roughly the same strength as last year, so my comments about margins don't need modification.

 

[Boxerpups4me]

This post will explain to people why you ignore me.

2 and 4. So, they will miss their point guards but ND will not? You said it's hard to go far with a new PG and loss of a floor leader is huge. I would think this would apply to the loss of Diggins.

5. Tenn lost two players who were starters the last 8 games. I guess you subscribe to the new and improved chemistry. It must have been those two players.

Folks have you on their ignore list? Who would have thunk it (end sarcasm)

Anywho, as far as the 5th point and Tennessee, I agree with Vowelguy's assessment. Tennessee overachieved last year and they are even better this year. The preseason polls show it, other team's coaches believe we are a lot better this year and there is just an huge buzz of excitement about the team this year that wasn't really there last year. I also expect to see a jump in home attendance for the Lady Vols this year as well. For the CN game, I won't be looking at how many points we score as much as I look at how many points we give UP to them. I'm looking for an improvement in team defense, as this was a major weakness for Tennessee last year. If they can even show moderate improvement, then I def believe a final four spot is obtainable. Their offense will be fine, it's the defense I'm still worried about. I think Russell, Carter and Reynolds will all help make the defense much, much better. Tennessee's toughest game, in my opinion, will be the UNC game. UNC will shoot a lot of threes and with how poorly Tennessee defended the perimeter last year, I just hope we made big improvements there. With all this said, I think Tennessee has a great shot at ending the regular season undefeated. The schedule is tough, so this won't be any small feat.

I think UNC will be a top five team by the end of the year with at least one win against Duke and a win against Maryland, and maybe even Tennessee if we don't bring our A game.

I don't think Stanford is a top 5 team by any means, nor am I sold on Cal being any better than they were last season.

I think Baylor will surprise people....Simms is just that good and she has a good set of role players to work with. The only thing that can hold Baylor back is Mulkey..

I really like Louisville's chances for a repeat final four appearance. Obviously they are going to be improved over last year and it helps to have probably the best in game coach in WCBB in Coach Jeff Waltz.

Kentucky should be really good on defense again this year, but I just don't see them improving much on offense..Maybe Harper will help them there, but I think she will be more impactful on the defensive side of things..

Well, my two cents anyway

 

[Vowelguy]

Vowelguy is definitely of the opinion that the loss of Diggins will hurt ND (LINK and LINK and LINK). Maybe he has you on ignore with the site's software, but you're also ignoring his posts subconsciously! And in response to #5, he never said Tennessee will benefit from improved chemistry, so you're pretty much putting words in his mouth there. (Could that be the reason he has you on ignore?)

Thanks FC.
I have several members on ignore, but why can I guess which this one refers to?

fyi, Last year I was one of few to have ND in my preseason top 10, bc of Diggins. This year, in the earlier BY poll, I was the only 1 of the 15 responders who didn't have ND in the top 5, bc of Diggins.

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/whats-your-top-10.43791/

 

[doggydaddy]

Thanks FC.
I have several members on ignore, but why can I guess which this one refers to?

fyi, Last year I was one of few to have ND in my preseason top 10, bc of Diggins. This year, in the earlier BY poll, I was the only 1 of the 15 responders who didn't have ND in the top 5, bc of Diggins.

http://the-boneyard.com/threads/whats-your-top-10.43791/

Well, I don't know why I bother since you have me on ignore, but I apologize for thinking you thought ND wold be fine without Diggins this year. My bad.

 

[triaddukefan]

I think UNC will be a top five team by the end of the year with at least one win against Duke and a win against Maryland, and maybe even Tennessee if we don't bring our A game.
ay

There are just three collegiate sports that I care about. Men's and women's BB, and football. UNC will not win a game vs Duke this year in the first two sports I listed..... they may luck up and win in football... No way are they a top 5 team in the country this year in WCBB. Just cant see the 4th best team in the ACC being a top 5 team in the country. Hope the Vols beat them

 

[Boxerpups4me]

There are just three collegiate sports that I care about. Men's and women's BB, and football. UNC will not win a game vs Duke this year in the first two sports I listed..... they may luck up and win in football... No way are they a top 5 team in the country this year in WCBB. Just cant see the 4th best team in the ACC being a top 5 team in the country. Hope the Vols beat them

You and me both Hey now, Duke is putting up a pretty good season in football. That VTech win kinda surprised me. Duke got a great coach with Cutcliffe...

I can see why the ACC is picked to be the toughest conference this year in WCBB. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how it all works out. I had forgotten that ND also joined the ACC this year too..

 

[Sonny44]

Despite what they accomplished in the NCAA tournament, the victory over Baylor I think Louisville is over rated. I think they got hot, were in the right place at the right time and the momentum took over. They just don't have the talent, especially in the post. I don't think they are top five.

 

[triaddukefan]

You and me both Hey now, Duke is putting up a pretty good season in football. That VTech win kinda surprised me. Duke got a great coach with Cutcliffe...

I can see why the ACC is picked to be the toughest conference this year in WCBB. Either way, it'll be interesting to see how it all works out. I had forgotten that ND also joined the ACC this year too..

As always ... the ACC is top heavy. The SEC is a more balanced conference.

 

[DobbsRover2]

Certain of the BYers were slamming teams like Louisville last preseason (you can find them a few messages above here) and popping up all kinds of stuff that just never went close to being down. Look, none of us are omens, augurs, or soothsayers, but let's not repeat the same idiocies of last year. Let it play out before you start anointing UTenn as a top 4 team (not, not, not), or saying that an NC opponent team with their starting group returning is overrated or that they were favored versus Cal and UTenn (thinking before you post is a valuable habit, ie. the Cardinals), or that losing an impact player like Diggins means sqaut (call me -o---- -o-e-). Who knows how the season will play out and we can all enjoy being idiots in preseason, but please don't try to toss aside everything you posted last early Novemberish last year, because it's not what you want anyone to remember.

UConn in 6 (mid March to early April).

 

[UConnCat]

Dan Flesar, an AP voter who has covered Tennessee for the Knoxville Sentinel for years, shared some of his votes in the top 25 poll (Tenn #7):

I’m one of the 36 voters on the poll and I had the Lady Vols seventh in my rankings.

The difference between the other voters and myself begins with my vantage point for UT’s 86-78 loss to Louisville in the Oklahoma City Regional final last April. The nature of that game has raised questions for me about the Lady Vols’ resolve and poise that linger into this season. Furthermore, the outcome elevated my estimation of Louisville. I ranked the Cardinals fourth, behind UConn, Duke and Stanford.

My concerns regarding UT haven’t been eased in the preseason either. I’ve had access to two full practice sessions and parts of two other practices. Mind you, I’m not complaining. Instead I am admitting to have no real sense yet for what acclaimed freshman Mercedes Russell might contribute. Nor do I have much first-hand appreciation for the effort and energy the coaches have been lauding.

At this point, I’m voting with more caution regarding Tennessee. With that in mind, I voted Notre Dame fifth based on its recent track record and its returning players. (Had I known of Natalie Achonwa’s knee injury, I would have reconsidered the Irish’s spot). I voted Maryland sixth based on All-American post Alyssa Thomas, three other returning starters and a strong freshman class.

My Tennessee vote reflects my impression that UT remains Elite Eight-worthy. Anything more is to be determined and voted on accordingly.

http://knoxblogs.com/basketcase/