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Good question, I have been pondering that very same issue. Like others, I think that the PAC12 staying together, at least retaining 3 out of 4 corner schools, is helpful. I have been wondering why the B1G just doesn't keep going and take Cal, Stanford, WA, and OR. Under that scenario, it is hard to see how UConn would make out well. Also, CO seems to be jonesing for the B12 much like UConn for the NBE, regardless of the PAC12 media package. So if that happens, the natural second party is SDSU or UConn. SDSU will have a $34 million severance fee and UConn $30 million. Unless of course the invite comes earlier than 6/30 for SDSU. And SDSU will have a second suitor, the PAC12. I suspect that Yormark has indeed been having very preliminary discussions with Memphis, that if you parse his statements you will probably find he did not lie. But he was close to that borderline.
Wouldn't UConn's fee be $15 million by the time they actually left? These moves to P5 conferences seem to take 2 years minimum and usually 3. I mean it feels like Texas and Oklahoma have been departing the Big 12 for the SEC for years already, and even with their early exit negotiation are still more than a year away from actually moving.
Dunno, but very good point.
Think the contracts are written that the exit fee kicks in upon date of notification not date of departure
If they want us starting in 2027, then sure. If they want us earlier, then we go earlier. The added revenue easily makes up for the additional cost. Keep in mind to that the Big East exit fee is paid in for installments so $30 million is paid installments of $7.5 million for four years.
Yup, of course the entrance fee is on top of that, also paid in installments as a draw against future shares. But that would still mean a YoY increase even accounting for the fact that there is a schedule to full share as well.
Do you go for the money with the CW? or visibility of ESPN?Pac 12 going the way of LIV?
The CW Still In Play For The Pac-12, Could Look To ESPN For Low Money
The Pac-12's media rights situation is one of the most compelling storylines of the college football offseason.
Colorado is "Jonesing" for a stable conference and more money. And the new FB Coach I'm sure has no problem spending time in Texas.
Always the money.
CU seems to be finally waking up from their self-induced football coma of the last 20+ years. Hiring Deion is a signal that they want to be relevant in today's game. I could definitely see both their coaches and AD pushing for the move based on the additional dollars that they'd bring in, along with a better overall alignment of conference priorities. The PAC, just like the ACC, seems to really struggle with its conference identity. The Big 12 does not. Their priorities are in order: 1)Play good football and get somebody in the playoff. 2) Be strong in basketball getting as many teams in the tournament as possible. 3) Be competitive in everything else. Who knows what Stanford, Cal, Wazzu, ASU or some of these schools put first?
I think it's coming - eventually. I don't think it happened yet for several reasons:
This post is right on.
Very simple, because the P12 teams have no where to go but the Big12, and the B12 needs approval as well. In addition, I don't think Yormark will expedite anything and will likely take his time determining who/what they want and can fund. The B12 doesn't have to be in a hurry, they have a deal already. Upper hand is king.
Something on the order of 40+ million people in its immediate sphere of influence with almost no competition. Despite all the "streaming" and other talk of monitizing whatever, physical proximity still counts, and that means geography. If anybody in Storrs ever gets off their ass and figures out that the way to tap into those 42,000,000, is to show them a desirable product, the rest will follow. People are attracted to winners. Winners pay off. Investment first. Winning next. Payoff last.
And I'd rather be in the no. 5 power conference than not in one at all. Basically the B1G and SEC will be 1-2 and the rest will be tied for 3rd.
I do agree with you that the only thing going for the Big 12 is a contract until 2031. Most B12 schools outside Kansas aren't state flagship schools. Most are second and third tier schools in their states.
11 times now
Nothing we have seen or heard in the past year indicates the PAC or the ACC are more stable than the Big 12 financially or competitively. The Big 12 has an option, should they choose it, to pick up three significant market properties. Two of which elevate the, 2nd major sport significantly, and all the with potentially improving football teams. You can say whatever you like, but the fact that the PAC is a sitting duck for the B1G and the ACC for the SEC doesn't support your claim.
Zero chance UConn as a stand alone add. There has to be a PAC partner. I think most on this board discount Colorado leaving and everyone else staying. Even with a mediocre media deal.
My understanding is the original 8 Big 12 members would have to subsidize the UConn addition by itself with the UT/OU exit fees and they won't do that. No idea why adding a PAC school makes a media payment different. Just what I heard.
I will add that a decent PAC-12 media contract could mean PAC-12 could be poaching B12 schools in the future as well.
Why would UConn need subsidizing? If the B12 add UConn today, it would gain a very valuable media property in the East. I am pretty sure media partners would pay pro rata for UConn since they will gain huge media markets along with two blue blood basketball programs.