Anyone a little worried about the Big East this year?

[auror]

Moore is not good to go.

For Nova @ UConn at the end of Dec, Nova appears to be outgunned. Moore will not likely be back and Nova will not have much game time to gel around Whitmore. Whitmore is a big talent and we will have a shot, but UConn has much more time as a unit with its key pieces in place.

Expect Moore back in January, and Nova firing on all cylinders by March. UConn @ Nova in early March will be an important test for both teams.

I bet UConn has at least 4 losses before the NCAAs. That would be a great record, and UConn will have been tested by conference play. Nova should be under seeded due to the losses in the early season without Cam and Moore, but teams will not want to draw them.

It sure sounds like you think Moore will be good to go, I think you're going to be disappointed.

Everyone was all excited about James Robinson's quick NFL recovery from the Achilles. New treatments! He had 2 long runs in the first couple weeks and everyone convinced he was 100% and like nothing had happened.

Since then he's been terribly bad and then got traded. His new team decided he sucked and isn't playing him. The stats like success rate have him as perhaps the worst RB in the league.

At the time of Akok Akok's achilles, I believe we were told that with new treatments and since he was so young and didn't have a lot of weight, that he should be able to recover more quickly or closer to 100% than most people who tear it. He was injured in late February, returned in January of the following year (sound familliar). Akok unfortunately never was the same after his injury and it's been years. He's one of the hardest working kids you can find, so it's certainly not his recovery adeptness.

Expecting anything is a fool's hope. I won't begrudge anyone that hope, but just be aware you will likely still be a cylinder short in March.

 

[PNolanFan]

The conference has been disappointing for sure however I think its fine, metrics have us mid-tier among the power conferences. I would take us top to bottom against the Pac-12 and ACC, and then probably a bit worse than the big 10, big 12 and SEC. Should still have 4/5 tournament team.

More importantly alot of programs are headed in the right direction. I think Marquette and Xavier and Creighton are all headed up with us in the right direction and expect the three to be perennially ranked with the current coaches. Georgetown and Depaul are really the two main drags on the conference at the moment but every conference needs bottom feeders

 

[nelsonmuntz]

Creighton and Xavier have been disappointing, and Marquette has been a surprise to the upside. The rest of the conference has been about what I expected.

Xavier could still be a power this year because that team has talent. Boum is a really good player and should be First Team All-Big East. If Jones ever realizes he is not Lebron and Freemantle keeps his head out of his butt for an entire game, Xavier can play with anyone.

Creighton's mediocre shooting has hurt it and Kalkbrenner is the best player on the team and missed the BYU game. Kalk will be back, but I don't think the shooting will improve.

 

[auror]

From UConn's tournament perspective, there's not much to worry about. But there are always longer term implications to think about as well.

This is the worst start since the conference realigned in 2013. I think it's just a blip, especially with the new coaches in the league. But that still puts more pressure on UConn to perform to these new expectations AND has $$ implications later... we all want as many teams in the conference as possible to make the tourney and win, if only for the dollars and cents part of it. And of course, for the rest of the conference we all want UConn to do well so when we beat you it means more for our resume!

It's true, UConn likely doesn't have much to worry about regarding the rest of the conference.

In fact, the conference has to be overjoyed how good UConn has been thus far (obviously considering how the rest of the preseason top 4-team tier have failed to capitalize on opportunities). Similar to Villanova in past years, we're going to be a signature win for teams at their home arenas, which is the easiest way to get signature wins for bubble teams. Right now the Big East has only a single team in the top 30 of WAB (Wins Above Bubble). Big East teams will be lining up to suckle at our power rating largess, because there's not much else available (as @nelsonmuntz has been accurately mentioning in a few threads regarding the zero sum nature of conference wins)...

If the tournament ended today, UConn is safely in... and that's it. The rest are all on the bubble.

St John's #32, Xavier #36, Marquette #50, Butler #63. Seton Hall #83, Creighton #84, Providence #114, Depaul #132, Nova #154 (will get Whitmore amnesia points at least).

The computer numbers are better, but not the resumes. The conference will need teams to emerge and not just form a mass of mediocrity.

 

[elmcityboy]

Everyone was all excited about James Robinson's quick NFL recovery from the Achilles. New treatments! He had 2 long runs in the first couple weeks and everyone convinced he was 100% and like nothing had happened.

Since then he's been terribly bad and then got traded. His new team decided he sucked and isn't playing him. The stats like success rate have him as perhaps the worst RB in the league.

At the time of Akok Akok's achilles, I believe we were told that with new treatments and since he was so young and didn't have a lot of weight, that he should be able to recover more quickly or closer to 100% than most people who tear it. He was injured in late February, returned in January of the following year (sound familliar). Akok unfortunately never was the same after his injury and it's been years. He's one of the hardest working kids you can find, so it's certainly not his recovery adeptness.

Expecting anything is a fool's hope. I won't begrudge anyone that hope, but just be aware you will likely still be a cylinder short in March.

i was going to post something similar. i like moore (and like nova more than most on this board do) but i can't believe how many nova fans think he will be at or close to 100% any time soon. people like to point to kevin durant as an archetypal success story, but forget that (1) he was out for nearly two years and (2) he's a space alien.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

It's true, UConn likely doesn't have much to worry about regarding the rest of the conference.

In fact, the conference has to be overjoyed how good UConn has been thus far (obviously considering how the rest of the preseason top 4-team tier have failed to capitalize on opportunities). Similar to Villanova in past years, we're going to be a signature win for teams at their home arenas, which is the easiest way to get signature wins for bubble teams. Right now the Big East has only a single team in the top 30 of WAB (Wins Above Bubble). Big East teams will be lining up to suckle at our power rating largess, because there's not much else available (as @nelsonmuntz has been accurately mentioning in a few threads regarding the zero sum nature of conference wins)...

If the tournament ended today, UConn is safely in... and that's it. The rest are all on the bubble.

St John's #32, Xavier #36, Marquette #50, Butler #63. Seton Hall #83, Creighton #84, Providence #114, Depaul #132, Nova #154 (will get Whitmore amnesia points at least).

The computer numbers are better, but not the resumes. The conference will need teams to emerge and not just form a mass of mediocrity.

What stats source are you using?

NET: Marquette 30, Xavier 40, Creighton 46, Butler 51, St. Johns 70, Seton Hall 89
KenPom: Creighton 27, Xavier 29, Marquette 31, St. Johns 49, Villanova 52, Seton Hall 59, Providence 69, Butler 71

I can not remember if NET has a starting point that takes time to get out of the model. KenPom definitely does.

NET still has a lot of cuckoo in it, like Sam Houston State at 23 with a 4-2 record, Kent State (6-2) at 33 and Iona (6-2) at 34. A lot of this detritus will slide down the ratings as the season continues. I also don't expect the MWC teams outside of SDSU to get a lot of love in March for their fancy NET ratings because of how obviously they are gaming the stupidest computer ranking in history.

The Big 12 is the best league in college and the Big East went 5-5 against it in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. The Big 10 is clearly #2, but all but one Big 10 school as 2+ losses, and eight have 3+ losses. The SEC teams haven't played anyone, and several of them still have a lot of losses. The MWC has gamed the computer rankings, and the ACC and Pac 12 are dumpster fires below their medians.

As I mentioned before, part of the reason the Big East is not a train wreck in the computer rankings is because they lose close games rather than get blown out, for the most part.

That said, I definitely agree with your last sentence. The Big East would be well served to have 2 or 3 of Xavier, Marquette, St. Johns or someone else win 12+ games in the league. The last thing the league or UConn needs is five or six teams between 11 and 9 wins in conference play.

 

[auror]

What stats source are you using?

NET: Marquette 30, Xavier 40, Creighton 46, Butler 51, St. Johns 70, Seton Hall 89
KenPom: Creighton 27, Xavier 29, Marquette 31, St. Johns 49, Villanova 52, Seton Hall 59, Providence 69, Butler 71

I can not remember if NET has a starting point that takes time to get out of the model. KenPom definitely does.

NET still has a lot of cuckoo in it, like Sam Houston State at 23 with a 4-2 record, Kent State (6-2) at 33 and Iona (6-2) at 34. A lot of this detritus will slide down the ratings as the season continues. I also don't expect the MWC teams outside of SDSU to get a lot of love in March for their fancy NET ratings because of how obviously they are gaming the stupidest computer ranking in history.

The Big 12 is the best league in college and the Big East went 5-5 against it in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. The Big 10 is clearly #2, but all but one Big 10 school as 2+ losses, and eight have 3+ losses. The SEC teams haven't played anyone, and several of them still have a lot of losses. The MWC has gamed the computer rankings, and the ACC and Pac 12 are dumpster fires below their medians.

As I mentioned before, part of the reason the Big East is not a train wreck in the computer rankings is because they lose close games rather than get blown out, for the most part.

That said, I definitely agree with your last sentence. The Big East would be well served to have 2 or 3 of Xavier, Marquette, St. Johns or someone else win 12+ games in the league. The last thing the league or UConn needs is five or six teams between 11 and 9 wins in conference play.

WAB, specifically from Torvik.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

It has no efficiency component to it, purely resume (though does consider the efficiency of your opponents to determine a baseline to compare your performance against). Which goes to your "lots of close losses", which in WAB hurt you, not reward you.

(As an aside, some B1G schools have losses because they've already played conference games against each other).

 

[nelsonmuntz]

WAB, specifically from Torvik.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

It has no efficiency component to it, purely resume (though does consider the efficiency of your opponents to determine a baseline to compare your performance against). Which goes to your "lots of close losses", which in WAB hurt you, not reward you.

(As an aside, some B1G schools have losses because they've already played conference games against each other).

I had heard of it but just read the FAQ. I think I like his methodology more than KenPom, although he says they are similar.

 

[Jimdish255]

How much?

Only two of the top seeds had 3 losses, the other two had 6 losses last year. It's very ambitious to expect 4 or less losses but the number could be anywhere from 3 to maybe 7 imo. It's interesting because we seem to be the kind of team that can weather some hot shooting when we're a bit flat, then play tough D, get a couple of turnovers, and eventually find a couple of guys to take advantage of a mismatch. PG development can make that a consistent theme.

 

[ClifSpliffy]

What stats source are you using?

NET: Marquette 30, Xavier 40, Creighton 46, Butler 51, St. Johns 70, Seton Hall 89
KenPom: Creighton 27, Xavier 29, Marquette 31, St. Johns 49, Villanova 52, Seton Hall 59, Providence 69, Butler 71

I can not remember if NET has a starting point that takes time to get out of the model. KenPom definitely does.

NET still has a lot of cuckoo in it, like Sam Houston State at 23 with a 4-2 record, Kent State (6-2) at 33 and Iona (6-2) at 34. A lot of this detritus will slide down the ratings as the season continues. I also don't expect the MWC teams outside of SDSU to get a lot of love in March for their fancy NET ratings because of how obviously they are gaming the stupidest computer ranking in history.

The Big 12 is the best league in college and the Big East went 5-5 against it in the Big East/Big 12 Battle. The Big 10 is clearly #2, but all but one Big 10 school as 2+ losses, and eight have 3+ losses. The SEC teams haven't played anyone, and several of them still have a lot of losses. The MWC has gamed the computer rankings, and the ACC and Pac 12 are dumpster fires below their medians.

As I mentioned before, part of the reason the Big East is not a train wreck in the computer rankings is because they lose close games rather than get blown out, for the most part.

That said, I definitely agree with your last sentence. The Big East would be well served to have 2 or 3 of Xavier, Marquette, St. Johns or someone else win 12+ games in the league. The last thing the league or UConn needs is five or six teams between 11 and 9 wins in conference play.

'and the ACC and Pac 12 are dumpster fires below their medians.'

this
NCAA college basketball rankings, polls from the AP and Coaches
says that the ACC has 4 ranked in the AP poll today.

 

[TheChamps990411]

You can't ask for more than we've gotten from our team this year but I'm a little worried about the rest of the conference. Creighton looked awful the last two games I saw (no Kalk vs BYU I get that). And some of the other teams have already had some head scratching losses. Who in the BE can we hang our hat on? St John's maybe? Xavier has looked better than their record in some of the games I've seen and Butler might have a shot to make some noise. Can Villanova right the ship? Maybe Marquette and Providence can have strong seasons?

Am i worried about the BE? Honestly? No. If they are the team we think they are then we`ll theyll be fine. Upsets happen and id rather go into the tourney with a couple of losses on the season and a big east tourney title than undefeated which is the kiss of death. Although if its one school that can pull of something as unexpected as an undefeated season its probably us. Let me just say if this team went undefeated and won it all i would absolutely lose my friggen mind

 

[nelsonmuntz]

'and the ACC and Pac 12 are dumpster fires below their medians.'

this
NCAA college basketball rankings, polls from the AP and Coaches
says that the ACC has 4 ranked in the AP poll today.

Someone doesn't know what "median" means. Did you go to UConn?

 

[Get a Job]

Someone doesn't know what "median" means. Did you go to UConn?

Yeah, but he was a business major, so...

 

[MU in MKE]

WAB, specifically from Torvik.

T-Rank - Customizable College Basketball Tempo Free Stats - T-Rank

T-Rank College Basketball Ratings and Rankings. And fun.

barttorvik.com

It has no efficiency component to it, purely resume (though does consider the efficiency of your opponents to determine a baseline to compare your performance against). Which goes to your "lots of close losses", which in WAB hurt you, not reward you.

(As an aside, some B1G schools have losses because they've already played conference games against each other).

Your ranks don't match up with the T-Rank numbers though. They didn't change that much since yesterday. Here are today's:

 

[Get a Job]

Your ranks don't match up with the T-Rank numbers though. They didn't change that much since yesterday. Here are today's:

View attachment 81880

Well that also says Seton Hall has a 6-4 record in 9 games, so...

 

[auror]

Your ranks don't match up with the T-Rank numbers though. They didn't change that much since yesterday. Here are today's:

View attachment 81880

It's WAB from Torvik, not T-Rank. It's a resume rank not a predictive rank. It's the far right column on the homepage or on my link.

 

[PAHusky]

We'll probably drop a game or two on the road during conference play, which can only help us going into March (and give a nice boost to the BE team that pulls it off). Don't want to be going into any end of year tournaments undefeated, ask St. Joes/Kentucky/Gonzaga how that works out.

That said, how nice is it to go from sweating the outcomes of games against ECU and Tulane to figuring out which BE teams even have a chance at knocking us off.

Here's hoping we beat the bricks off of Nova too. They had a nice run but it's time to come off of our throne.

 

[Leebo]

Well that also says Seton Hall has a 6-4 record in 9 games, so...

They played a D2 team, so I assume that accounts for the discrepancy.

 

[CL82]

Well that also says Seton Hall has a 6-4 record in 9 games, so...

In fairness, does the rock fight against Rutgers really count as a basketball game?

 

[Umami Zen]

Well that also says Seton Hall has a 6-4 record in 9 games, so...

Fuzzy math

 

[Hurleyman216]

Moore is not good to go.

For Nova @ UConn at the end of Dec, Nova appears to be outgunned. Moore will not likely be back and Nova will not have much game time to gel around Whitmore. Whitmore is a big talent and we will have a shot, but UConn has much more time as a unit with its key pieces in place.

Expect Moore back in January, and Nova firing on all cylinders by March. UConn @ Nova in early March will be an important test for both teams.

I bet UConn has at least 4 losses before the NCAAs. That would be a great record, and UConn will have been tested by conference play. Nova should be under seeded due to the losses in the early season without Cam and Moore, but teams will not want to draw them.

I hate to break this to you, but UConn has the 4 best players in the Big East and it’s not even really that debatable…Nova has some nice pieces, but even when Moore comes back I expect we’ll beat you guys like a drum. You guys had a nice run and kept the Big East semi-relevant while we were gone. We’re back now and we will once again own the Big East. Thanks for your interest in UConn basketball.

 

[Dove]

I really ain't worried about the Big East that much. Life is hard, as it is.

 

[Ricker]

Xavier shooting 42% from 3 for the year so far with 4 frequent shooters over 40%. Their losses are to Indiana, Duke, and Gonzaga in single digit games. Souley Boum is an impact addition and Kam Craft I think will be. With a coaching upgrade to Miller, I think they will be a significant opponent, as well as a healthy Creighton.

 

[USNavyDog]

It's not that interesting. Have you seen us play?

I don't think we're going undefeated in the conference this year, but I think anyone that's watched basketball so far would say UConn is the clear favorite to win the conference, even factoring in Whitmore's return.

We'll be 18-2 in the Big East this year.

 

[gtcam]

I hate to break this to you, but UConn has the 4 best players in the Big East and it’s not even really that debatable…Nova has some nice pieces, but even when Moore comes back I expect we’ll beat you guys like a drum. You guys had a nice run and kept the Big East semi-relevant while we were gone. We’re back now and we will once again own the Big East. Thanks for your interest in UConn basketball.

Maybe 4 in the top 10 but not the 4 absolute best,
I'm a UConn lover but not going to say that they have the 4 best and non debatable
Please lose that tired "Thanks for your interest in UConn basketball" Thanks DHman