Any way UConn isn't a complete mismatch for Cal?

[MilfordHusky]

I have not seen Cal this year, but I know they have disappointed. Last year in New Orleans, Clarendon was clearly the key.

If we are sluggish, it could be a 15-20 point win. If we have our A game, it could be 40-50.

I look for our guys to make a big impression in the Big Apple. UConn by 83-48.

 

[uconnfan68]

Checking latest Sagarin, UConn would be almost a 25 point favorite, but since UConn was a 1 point underdog there against Duke and won by 22, I think the margin could be adjusted to 48 without difficulty, without even tossing in the anti-rust element which should be coating UConn by the time Dec. 22 comes. Cal has no wins against a top 50 team this year, with its lone game being the loss to Duke. This margin could well be 50.

Wait, UConn was getting points from Duke? Who set that line?

 

[DobbsRover2]

Wait, UConn was getting points from Duke? Who set that line?

We're not talking about a bettor's point spread, which I'm sure had UConn by 12-15 points. This is the Sagarin ratings, which tries to evaluate teams by analyzing a team's W-L, W-L point margins, and home\away factors to sort out the rankings for 355 D1 teams. By taking the difference between two teams' rating scores and adjusting with the home\away factor, you get a decently accurate prediction for an upcoming contest, and when you average in all the games over the course of a season, Sagarin is very good. On Tuesday morning the main score that Sagarin ranks by had UConn up 3 over Duke, but with the -4 court effect thrown in, UConn was the underdog. One of the rating scales Sagarin uses called the Golden Mean or Dimin Curve had UConn favored even with the court factor, but that's just one of the scales that is used.

As I mentioned elsewhere, Sagarin is not really able to handle a tremendous outlier team like UConn because it tries to adjust all those weirdly huge results that teams occasionally have during the season down to something more normal. But for those once-every-few-years spectacular freak-out teams like 2013-14 UConn, every game has those hugely weird results, and the team is basically off the charts there. UConn's current +8 advantage straight-up over Duke just does not begin to describe the true distance between the teams.

 

[meyers7]

Actually, Juaquin's great line was; "To sum it all up in one word, you never can tell." His other great line was; "Where is my head today?" to which there was, of course, no answer.

I had always read/heard, "you never know"??? But either way....

 

[Wonkster]

To sum it up in one word, Ain't no Way. (Line stolen from Juaquin Andujar and modified slightly.)

Pffft.

Joaquin Andujar - one of the biggest cry babies in the history of Major League Baseball.

 

[Zorro]

Pffft.

Joaquin Andujar - one of the biggest cry babies in the history of Major League Baseball.

Maybe. But he was way funny, and had tremendous stuff. (For a short time.)

 

[ballhawk]

I've been to most of Cal's home games this year and I can't figure how Cal will score. They can't shoot from the outside and Rashanda Gray won't be able to score from the inside. Cal has lost three starters from last year's team and it will be a rout. Prediction: Uconn 85-47.

 

[Zorro]

Meyers; I looked it up; you were right. The exact quote was; "There is one word in America that sums it all up, and that word is 'you never know'".

 

[huskybill]

Kibitzer was responding to a post which said that Cal wasn't even in the same solar system as UConn.

But Kib. TonyC isn't in the same solar system as UConn

 

[Tonyc]

I think the Duke game solidified how dominate UConn is. Duke scored most of their points and made their comeback on UConn at the end of the first half on UConns unforced turnovers which allowed Duke to get their break going and in most cases UConn couldn't get their defense set up. Like many teams Duke has problems playing UConn in a half court game.

Many fans believe ND will give UConn problems this season if we face them in the NCAAs. I don't. I also think there is a contingent that would love to see Tenn win the NC and pit UConn against ND at ND in the NCAAs. I also believe the media would love to see the NCAA give Tenn an easy bracket so they could face UConn in Nashville and it will be that battle to who would win number 9. There are a lot of scenarios.

 

[huskybill]

The game is a complete mis-match, but I expect UConn to win anyways.