Another starting five prediction | Page 4 | The Boneyard
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Another starting five prediction

Okay, after watching the BC scrimmage, I think that most of this I will still stick with. The one big exception now that I would like to change from previous statement; Williams starts from Game #1 and never relinquishes her roll to Jana or Gandy (baring an illness or injury, etc.)

I mentioned within the body of this post that I thought Williams would be a 'National Player of the Year' candidate ... it is going to be difficult to achieve that status, because the other Sarah is going to win that award and they likely will not like to put two (or three) teammates on the 1st Team All American list. But I'll say this of the two of them, they are going to be really problematic for teams to deal with anywhere near the paint. Throw in the perimeter shooting that Fudd will contribute, and add Shades' shooting and defense/long rebounds, KK's defense; wow, there are some really big problems for other teams in the forecast!
After the BC game, seems clear that Ash is the 5th starter at least to begin the season. I think what's more interesting is predicting who will round out the rotation. In one of his recent pressers Geno hinted at the maximum size of his rotation. He talked about a "second string" of players and mentioned 8-10 players. But from his tone, it seems that come tournament time his real rotation with this group will probably max out around 8-9 players barring injuries or rampant foul trouble. Which aligns with his core rotation size in the past. I should probably start a different thread about this, but I'm curious who people think the 4 core rotation players will end up being. For Caroline, Morgan, and Ayanna the likelihood of their being in that rotation is complicated by their long or ongoing recoveries. I think it's safe to assume Gandy is a long term investment. Kelis is raw and needs more time, especially as a point guard at UConn. Allie, I have no read on her long term projection because the sample is limited (telling in and of itself), but I do question her ability to compete against a SC or UCLA or Texas. So with a staring lineup of...

KK
Ashlynn
Azzi
Sarah
Serah


At this point the other four for me would be...

Kelis
Kayleigh
Allie
Blanca
Caroline
Morgan
Ayanna
Ice
Jana

Gandy

BUT a lot can change between now and March.
 
@bayern7 a lot depends on how you define the term 'rotation.' If it's whoever plays in competitive parts of games, I expect that will likely be ~9. That's just because it's hard to get enough reps together for a larger number. I think this is typical for most years, though occasionally it's dipped to ~7. Last season, the rotation that settled out by mid-February amounted to 8. You could add Morgan or Aubrey, who got competitive minutes for parts of the season, though not for the whole of it.

If you're looking at stats for past seasons, it's not that easy to identify competitive minutes without scouring individual game stat sheets, and these aren't all that easy to find. A simpler rule of thumb is to look at season stats for who averaged 10+ minutes and played the entire season. It's not foolproof, but it gives a clearer picture than you get from an unfiltered welter of stats. Viewed through such a lens, it's hard to find many seasons where the rotation departs far from 8 players.

That said, I agree with your guess about who the 4 rotation players are likely to be once mid-February rolls around.
 
@bayern7 a lot depends on how you define the term 'rotation.' If it's whoever plays in competitive parts of games, I expect that will likely be ~9. That's just because it's hard to get enough reps together for a larger number. I think this is typical for most years, though occasionally it's dipped to ~7. Last season, the rotation that settled out by mid-February amounted to 8. You could add Morgan or Aubrey, who got competitive minutes for parts of the season, though not for the whole of it.

If you're looking at stats for past seasons, it's not that easy to identify competitive minutes without scouring individual game stat sheets, and these aren't all that easy to find. A simpler rule of thumb is to look at season stats for who averaged 10+ minutes and played the entire season. It's not foolproof, but it gives a clearer picture than you get from an unfiltered welter of stats. Viewed through such a lens, it's hard to find many seasons where the rotation departs far from 8 players.

That said, I agree with your guess about who the 4 rotation players are likely to be once mid-February rolls around.
A pretty easy rule of thumb for the regular rotation is anyone who plays in the 1st half or starts the 2nd half. After that, the score can often dictate some experimentation (mop up minutes) with reserves if UConn is up big.

As you point out, last season during the Big Dance, Geno went with 8. I do think that might have been 9-10 if Aubrey and/or Morgan had been healthy,
 
A pretty easy rule of thumb for the regular rotation is anyone who plays in the 1st half or starts the 2nd half. After that, the score can often dictate some experimentation (mop up minutes) with reserves if UConn is up big.

As you point out, last season during the Big Dance, Geno went with 8. I do think that might have been 9-10 if Aubrey and/or Morgan had been healthy,
I agree with you but it seems to me that in most every regular and postseason game that the starting five have also started the second half. That's why I was surprised Monday (I realize that it was an exhibition game) when only three of the starters started the second half. If I remember correctly, Kayleigh and Blanca started the second half instead of KK and Ashlynn.
 
After the BC game, seems clear that Ash is the 5th starter at least to begin the season. I think what's more interesting is predicting who will round out the rotation. In one of his recent pressers Geno hinted at the maximum size of his rotation. He talked about a "second string" of players and mentioned 8-10 players. But from his tone, it seems that come tournament time his real rotation with this group will probably max out around 8-9 players barring injuries or rampant foul trouble. Which aligns with his core rotation size in the past. I should probably start a different thread about this, but I'm curious who people think the 4 core rotation players will end up being. For Caroline, Morgan, and Ayanna the likelihood of their being in that rotation is complicated by their long or ongoing recoveries. I think it's safe to assume Gandy is a long term investment. Kelis is raw and needs more time, especially as a point guard at UConn. Allie, I have no read on her long term projection because the sample is limited (telling in and of itself), but I do question her ability to compete against a SC or UCLA or Texas. So with a staring lineup of...

KK
Ashlynn
Azzi
Sarah
Serah


At this point the other four for me would be...

Kelis
Kayleigh
Allie
Blanca
Caroline
Morgan
Ayanna
Ice
Jana

Gandy

BUT a lot can change between now and March.
That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though
 
That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though
It's a stunning thought that if Serah has to sit with foul trouble, Geno can bring in Jana. That just says a lot about the depth of this roster. He loses something in scoring, but Jana is as good an intimidator as anyone. This is where the lineup is right now.

If Blanca can fit herself into the system better, maybe by January, she could be the sub for Serah in a smaller lineup. Then Geno doesn't lose scoring, but maybe rebounding and the intimidation factor declines a bit.

I'm also kinda in love with the idea of a small lineup of Sarah Blanca Azzi KK and Ash. It may not be the best unit, but it will probably be the quickest.
 
That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though
Agreed on all points, well said
 
I believe Geno said he is looking for a rotation of 8-10. He wants a lower number (not 15) for continuity. We'll see what happens. I'm thinking Blanca, Kayleigh, Ice, Jana, and maybe Caroline.
 
I believe Geno said he is looking for a rotation of 8-10. He wants a lower number (not 15) for continuity. We'll see what happens. I'm thinking Blanca, Kayleigh, Ice, Jana, and maybe Caroline.
From another DMVer: He needs to play Allie. 2nd year. We have to assume she's doing everything she's supposed to do. She gets a chance, then after this year everyone concerned will have a feel for the future at UConn. Caroline is going to be a HS or college basketball coach. She's living a great life under very difficult circumstances. If Caroline's 100%, that changes the equation.
 
From another DMVer: He needs to play Allie. 2nd year. We have to assume she's doing everything she's supposed to do. She gets a chance, then after this year everyone concerned will have a feel for the future at UConn. Caroline is going to be a HS or college basketball coach. She's living a great life under very difficult circumstances. If Caroline's 100%, that changes the equation.
Agree! Allie at this point is the presumed successor to Azzi as the three point ace of the team. I would guess she will get every opportunity this season to show she can handle that role as a junior & senior. I am definitely pulling for her to do well this season as she (if successful) will be an important part of the team in 26/27 & 27/28.
 
Agree! Allie at this point is the presumed successor to Azzi as the three point ace of the team. I would guess she will get every opportunity this season to show she can handle that role as a junior & senior. I am definitely pulling for her to do well this season as she (if successful) will be an important part of the team in 26/27 & 27/28.
One thing I noticed about Allie in the BC game is when she drove to the lane, stopped and sank a mid range jumper, ala Paige and Azzi. If she can successfully continue to do this, she may get a lot more minutes.
 

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