I agree, but the question is will she take more advantage of her midrange? She took 5 shots yesterday... all were 3-pt attempts. I know it was just one exhibition...
Another starting five prediction
- Thread starter CL82
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DefenseBB
Snark is always appreciated!
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One edit- "but at this point I think there are only
1. Serah didn't transfer here to sit the bench and not start
2. Geno and staff have learned from the Azura Stevens situation where she should have been starting when eligible.
3. Serah's stats last year were worthy of 2nd team All-American but due to her abysmal team, she wasn't considered.
4. Serah is a 2 time FIRST team Big 10 selection and her pedigree shows she has already earned consideration
The other two starting positions will be an evolving situation depending if the Bench can score. What KK and Ash bring is unique and as they say, it's not who starts but who finishes in close games.
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Jana is way too inconsistent offensively. There isn't anything she does with regularity offensively that overshadows Serah. Same with Ice.
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Offensively, Serah is way ahead of Jana and Ice. Serah did not hesitate to take it to the hoop. She knew exactly what to do with the ball in the paint and was very comfortable as the 5. Jana has a great motor and will be great, but she is somewhat offensively challenged right now as she develops her post moves, something Serah already possess. Ice has a better jump shot but is not comfortable in the paint. At the end of the day, it is an embarrassment of riches that we are even having this discussion about starting five. Let's continue to pray for health for all of the players.
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And she scored 12 points per game. I think we all would happy if she duplicates her freshman ppg and last season's 3 pt shooting percentage.
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Although she clearly looks the part with her size and physicality, I have to say this seeming consensus that Blanca is going to relegate Ash back to the bench is a bit puzzling to me. I certainly wouldn’t say it cannot happen but I do think that based on what I saw yesterday (and Ash’s own abilities) it is not a certainty at all. In fact, if I were a betting man, I would say the more likely scenario is that Ash will be the starter and Blanca (or Caroline, or Morgan) will play the KK role off the bench that comes in and disrupts the whole game with her/their size and athleticism. I could be wrong but I just think Ash’s all round game including her 40+% from three and her obvious intensity on the court will make it very difficult to remove her from the starting five.
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Just to add to the Ashlynn chorus: I forget the exact % but I believe that
ASH was over 90% in free throw shooting percentage in her freshman year!
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This combo is also a great full court pressing group, similar to what Geno played against BC. It offers full court pressure with Sarah in the middle. It's not just offense from this group but what they offer on the defensive side.
MilfordHusky
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Regarding Ash, she was the Big East Freshman of the Year, followed by Big East 6th Woman of the year.
Her stats:
Freshman 31.4 mpg 11.0 ppg 3.5 rpg shooting .481/.356/.913.
Sophomore 22.3 mpg 7.7 ppg 2.7rpg shooting .480/.411/.714.
My guess for her shooting this year: .480/.400/.850.
Her stats:
Freshman 31.4 mpg 11.0 ppg 3.5 rpg shooting .481/.356/.913.
Sophomore 22.3 mpg 7.7 ppg 2.7rpg shooting .480/.411/.714.
My guess for her shooting this year: .480/.400/.850.
91% her freshman year and 71% this past season
You beat me to it... sorry my bad
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Even if we get to a point where Ash and Blanca almost split time 20/20 min at the wing in significant games, I'm still starting the experienced older Ash. We have Azzi, Sarah, and Serah to come out and score. At the start, you need a dependable Ash to come out be the glue player and hit the open shots when the opponent is focused on the other 3. IMO from what I saw in the opening game and her Italian film, you want Blanca to be the disrupter first off the bench who changes the game dynamics.
After the BC game, seems clear that Ash is the 5th starter at least to begin the season. I think what's more interesting is predicting who will round out the rotation. In one of his recent pressers Geno hinted at the maximum size of his rotation. He talked about a "second string" of players and mentioned 8-10 players. But from his tone, it seems that come tournament time his real rotation with this group will probably max out around 8-9 players barring injuries or rampant foul trouble. Which aligns with his core rotation size in the past. I should probably start a different thread about this, but I'm curious who people think the 4 core rotation players will end up being. For Caroline, Morgan, and Ayanna the likelihood of their being in that rotation is complicated by their long or ongoing recoveries. I think it's safe to assume Gandy is a long term investment. Kelis is raw and needs more time, especially as a point guard at UConn. Allie, I have no read on her long term projection because the sample is limited (telling in and of itself), but I do question her ability to compete against a SC or UCLA or Texas. So with a staring lineup of...
KK
Ashlynn
Azzi
Sarah
Serah
At this point the other four for me would be...
Kelis
Kayleigh
Allie
Blanca
Caroline
Morgan
Ayanna
Ice
Jana
Gandy
BUT a lot can change between now and March.
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@bayern7 a lot depends on how you define the term 'rotation.' If it's whoever plays in competitive parts of games, I expect that will likely be ~9. That's just because it's hard to get enough reps together for a larger number. I think this is typical for most years, though occasionally it's dipped to ~7. Last season, the rotation that settled out by mid-February amounted to 8. You could add Morgan or Aubrey, who got competitive minutes for parts of the season, though not for the whole of it.
If you're looking at stats for past seasons, it's not that easy to identify competitive minutes without scouring individual game stat sheets, and these aren't all that easy to find. A simpler rule of thumb is to look at season stats for who averaged 10+ minutes and played the entire season. It's not foolproof, but it gives a clearer picture than you get from an unfiltered welter of stats. Viewed through such a lens, it's hard to find many seasons where the rotation departs far from 8 players.
That said, I agree with your guess about who the 4 rotation players are likely to be once mid-February rolls around.
If you're looking at stats for past seasons, it's not that easy to identify competitive minutes without scouring individual game stat sheets, and these aren't all that easy to find. A simpler rule of thumb is to look at season stats for who averaged 10+ minutes and played the entire season. It's not foolproof, but it gives a clearer picture than you get from an unfiltered welter of stats. Viewed through such a lens, it's hard to find many seasons where the rotation departs far from 8 players.
That said, I agree with your guess about who the 4 rotation players are likely to be once mid-February rolls around.
oldude
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A pretty easy rule of thumb for the regular rotation is anyone who plays in the 1st half or starts the 2nd half. After that, the score can often dictate some experimentation (mop up minutes) with reserves if UConn is up big.
As you point out, last season during the Big Dance, Geno went with 8. I do think that might have been 9-10 if Aubrey and/or Morgan had been healthy,
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I agree with you but it seems to me that in most every regular and postseason game that the starting five have also started the second half. That's why I was surprised Monday (I realize that it was an exhibition game) when only three of the starters started the second half. If I remember correctly, Kayleigh and Blanca started the second half instead of KK and Ashlynn.
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That is certainly a good capture of where things are now and could likely remain come March. The starting line up is a no-brainer, for now, plus Kayleigh and Blanca as-projected are virtual no-brainers for the 7 deep. You know what you get with the seasoned and versatile Brady in your rotation, and although Jana still has a way to go (in health and craft-skill), it is hard to imagine her not in the rotation mix just based on size match-ups alone. So these 9 give you back-ups at every position and both small / big and offense / defense combo options. The only thing missing then is another instant offense asset and that is a spot which Z could be the answer. The wildcard competition for that role is a fully rejuvenated CD, that gives you offense and more. So that would be my 10 to compete for your 9 max max rotation. There is just too much uncertainty on both the health and development readiness side of things to consider beyond these 10 at this early stage. I like to be surprised though
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It's a stunning thought that if Serah has to sit with foul trouble, Geno can bring in Jana. That just says a lot about the depth of this roster. He loses something in scoring, but Jana is as good an intimidator as anyone. This is where the lineup is right now.
If Blanca can fit herself into the system better, maybe by January, she could be the sub for Serah in a smaller lineup. Then Geno doesn't lose scoring, but maybe rebounding and the intimidation factor declines a bit.
I'm also kinda in love with the idea of a small lineup of Sarah Blanca Azzi KK and Ash. It may not be the best unit, but it will probably be the quickest.
Agreed on all points, well said
MilfordHusky
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I believe Geno said he is looking for a rotation of 8-10. He wants a lower number (not 15) for continuity. We'll see what happens. I'm thinking Blanca, Kayleigh, Ice, Jana, and maybe Caroline.
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From another DMVer: He needs to play Allie. 2nd year. We have to assume she's doing everything she's supposed to do. She gets a chance, then after this year everyone concerned will have a feel for the future at UConn. Caroline is going to be a HS or college basketball coach. She's living a great life under very difficult circumstances. If Caroline's 100%, that changes the equation.
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Agree! Allie at this point is the presumed successor to Azzi as the three point ace of the team. I would guess she will get every opportunity this season to show she can handle that role as a junior & senior. I am definitely pulling for her to do well this season as she (if successful) will be an important part of the team in 26/27 & 27/28.
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One thing I noticed about Allie in the BC game is when she drove to the lane, stopped and sank a mid range jumper, ala Paige and Azzi. If she can successfully continue to do this, she may get a lot more minutes.
I'm fairly confident we know who the starting 5 will be, at least to start the season. The other 4 players in a 9 player rotation are likely to change depending on who is playing well and who isn't. Plus they could change depending on the matchups Geno wants to create.
This is a pretty good breakdown. Geno obviously believes a great deal in developing chemistry between a relatively small group of players. I could see a scenario where the rotation in most games until the game was put away might be 10, but where in a true test he would shrink it to 8. In that expanded version maybe Allie becomes a designated backup to Azzi.
With 10 everyone can get used to their role as the backup to a certain starter, and chemistry can more easily be achieved with well defined roles. Having said that I think the odds are against that being the norm at least in contested games, because Geno will want to get more minutes from the best of the second unit than just backing up one position, and will want to move people around and tweak lineups depending on specific game needs and opponents.
Of the four mentioned Ice is the most vulnerable in my opinion, if Geno reduced it to 8. She faces competition from Ayanna which she could certainly win, but perhaps a more serious threat from Jana or Blanca. If either of those emerges as a significantly better player overall than Ice, it would be easy to phase her out. Jana could play more that just backup 5 minutes with Serah sometimes sliding to the 4, and Blanca in addition to significant minutes at the 3, could play the 4 as well.
With the possible exception of Kayleigh as the backup 1, and Jana as the backup 5, the backups for the other 3 positions face competition not just from players at that natural position, but also from players that are smaller or bigger.
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Maybe Geno is considering Kayleigh and Bianca together a plug and play replacement to give KK and Ash a rest from the high intensity starting 5. This would enable the team to keep the high intensity play going for a longer period of time?
I think there is something to that. Out of the 5 starters in the exhibition, KK and Ash are the ones that are most likely subbed for first. Azzi, Sarah, and Serah are expected to get significantly more minutes. As a result how Kayleigh and Blanca play with the big 3 is a question Geno wants to answer if that would happen frequently when the season starts.
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