Before we completely bury the future of TN lets get a grip - TN is a much bigger institution with much greater resources than LaTech or ODU so while they may be in for a down time, they are much more likely to similar to Texas in terms of a drop off. And if they get the transition corrrect, they may just experience a minor blip in their fortunes.
a couple of thoughts but i wanted to reply to this too. when people are talking about "nails in coffin", etc for tennessee, it's basically about them falling out of the top 10 on a semi-permanent basis, and no longer really vying for a final 4, never mind a NC. can you imagine the meltdown if tennessee falls out of the top 25, like texas has done many times in the past 5 years? i don't know the stats but when was the last time tennessee was out of the top 10? what about UCONN? how about the top 25?
anyhoo... with regards to Carter, she was a top 10 kid IIRC before her injury. and she's still #14 per blue star. but is she a superstar? does tennessee have a single super star on their team including the 2012 kids coming in? i'd say no. they have a bunch of solid kids but not enough to keep up with the UCONN's, Duke's, Baylor (next year at least), of the world.
depending on what they do in 2013 with Davis, their recruiting in 2009-2012 is no better than Maryland, aTm, Baylor, Rutgers, and maybe a few others. and given how the coaching has gone and how the players have improved (or in some cases not impropved), it doesn't bode well for teams who are on equal footing in recruiting with them.
obviously i have no idea what will happen. tennessee has a huge and rich history in WCBB, but it's not a destionation school like Duke, Cal, Stanford, UNC, and a bunch of other schools in better towns with better academics. i think it will be a huge accomplishment for the next coach to make the final 4 every few years and keep them in the top 10 on an annual basis. as long as Geno is around, Tennessee won't be winning another NC, which means a 6 year drought starting this year.