Andre Drummond should have stayed at UConn

[Dogdeacon]

The one flaw in simply doing the math is that not every million is created equal. That first paycheck represents a huge change in your lifestyle and your family's lifestyle. Turning pro this year was the difference between making $2.5 million and making $2000 in meal money on the road (and getting some sneakers).

This is true, although I suspect if you offered most people $4.8MM for 2yrs of work today or $5.3MM for one year of work beginning next year, the majority would take the latter. Plenty would want the money today though. I know nothing of Andre's personal or family situation and any shortcomings there obviously make it worth taking the money sooner.

Despite the fact Nerlen's Noel is the consensus #1 with a torn ACL three people (phillionaire, bymayuc, Waquoit) still play the 'he could have gotten hurt' card. Incidentally Kenyon Martin was once drafted #1 overall even though his leg was broken, I recall a guy named Greg Oden was picked #1 as well despite possible injury problems, do I have to mention the other Kentucky center ;o

Pudge - you are wrong. His 2nd year contract is set and via the club 2 options the Pistons will keep him on the rookie scale for at least 2 more seasons, possibly 3. After that he'd go up. In most cases it is not until that 4th or 5th year. I don't think there is a 1st round pick from 2010 or 2011 that is not on their rookie scale contract. I'd say AD is on track for a new contract in year 4 (ie the best 09 guys, Griffin, Curry, Harden get new contracts in this 4th year).

A flaw in my hypothesis is that AD progressed and seemed to apply himself and be more mature and motivated in the NBA. But I think its better than 50% that this would have occured in his sophomore year at UConn as well.

 

[Fishy]

If you're going to be drafted in the lottery, you should go.

If you're smart, you gain instant financial security.

In terms of basketball, you no longer need to worry about obligations of being a student. You train and practice with the best players on earth and you receive coaching that is well-above what you can get in college.

A college basketball coach has a thousand responsibilities - he's coaching, administrating, scouting, game-prepping, recruiting, fundraising, budgeting, scheduling, planning his camps, etc., etc.

There's less time to be invested in the individual player than in the NBA. Although I think a kid like Andre would have done much better this year under Ollie than he did last year with the Calhoun health drama and absence, he clearly made the right call.

 

[huskyharry]

Regardless, the financial future looks very bright for Andre & this year's team did still get a good bit of national press.
But with AD playing like he did in the NBA for UConn this year, this year's team may have been dramatically improved. If we had won the Big East regular season title, he would have gotten even more attention.
Also from the UConn perspective, having AD picked as a top 3 pick in this year's draft would be orders of magnitude more beneficial than his lottery pick last year, which did little to help the UConn buzz given all the other dark clouds over the program and the coaching change.

 

[ctchamps]

One thing about life is there are no guarantees.
AD could have had a career ending injury and how would that have benefited him and his family?
As far as UConn benefiting if AD went #1 in this season's draft, that point is countered with the lack of development in other players that could have taken place had he stayed. The experience gained by these players "could be" a lot more beneficial going forward.
And who knows what team would have drafted AD this season and how they would develop him vs. the way Detroit is bringing him along.
Reality is a lot different than conjecture. A lot of people who sold their stocks at the beginning of 2000 looked like fools until April of 2001 came along and proved them correct.

I would have loved his return. But I am also happy that he is prospering in the NBA.

 

[DrewDog85]

The media loses sight of players due to a post-season ban. The thought that NBA scouts would is utterly bizarre.

Thank You Businesslawyer !!! This crap about NBA scouts would forget AD because of NCAA tourney ban is DUMB !

 

[BearJWS]

Just like Real Estate... Location, Location, Location!
With last year's draft, when it became obvious Andre wasn't going to be a Top 4, pick I actually wanted Andre to drop to the Pistons. I didn't want him to get drafted by Sacramento with Mr. Wacko Cousins there (Bad Influence), nor the Blazers with the Oden comparisons, nor Golden State with Bogut there (yes, he was injured), nor the abyss of Toronto with Valančiūnas coming in. I thought the Pistons were the perfect situation for Andre to come into. Obviously, Monroe was playing Center for the Pistons, while highly skilled, Monroe isn't so great athletically & more of a PF. I thought Drummond could be the perfect compliment to Monroe. The Pistons now have one of the top up & coming frontcourts in the NBA with Drummond & Monroe. I can't wait to see Monroe & Drummond to develop together... Now the Pistons need to develop their backcourt... and Yes, I thought the Pistons should have drafted Kemba too... What could have been....

 

[ChrisSmith]

Andre is making $2,356,320 this year and $2,462,200 next year both the max amounts available for the 9th pick in the draft. After that Pistons have options for 2yrs to extend at $2.57MM then $3.27MM.

The best guess for #1 pick in this year's draft is Nerlens Noel who I believe is yet to declare and I know has a torn ACL and an even more limited offensive game than Drummond had as a UConn frosh. Andre would therefore UNQUESTIONABLY be the #1 pick and don't give me any BS about AD risking getting hurt because Noel DID GET HURT AND IS STILL likely the #1 pick.

1st year salary for #1 pick is $5,324,280 > 4,818,720 (2yrs Drummond contract)

That's not even getting to 3rd year when #1 2013 pick's salary will be +3M over Andre's contract. And I think in either case he likely gets a new long-term contract after 2014 or 2015, so no basis to claim AD would get to free agency or longer contract sooner. Its simple, he would have made more coin by staying at UConn.

You're forgetting two important things. First - the time value of money. You're talking six figures. Second - endorsements. Again, even for a relatively low profile guy like Drummond, you're again talking six figures.

Financially, I think Drummond is about even.

You're ignoring some important risks. Not all injuries all created equally. Certain knee injuries, back injuries, and foot injuries are all trouble for big men. Secondly, if Drummond came back and didn't improve, his stock would have tanked.

At the end of the day, Drummond got a guaranteed $5MM dollars. That's a lot more than most on this board will make in their life time. Just because he might have made a small amount more (2-3%) over a two year period does not mean he made a mistake.

 

[8893]

Thank You Businesslawyer !!! This crap about NBA scouts would forget AD because of NCAA tourney ban is DUMB !

Please tell me who said or even suggested that NBA scouts would forget AD because of the NCAA tourney ban?

Between this discussion and the logo threads, I am convinced that the rate at which the internet is dumbing down the population is increasing exponentially.

The point is a very simple one: post-season conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament provide greater exposure and often lead to changes in perception by NBA decision makers (including scouts, GMs and, most importantly, owners) that result in movement within the draft. No post-season exposure limits that opportunity.

I feel stupider for having to even respond to this. BL, are you really this obtuse?

 

[gtcam]

Drummond hurt himself with his I'll play when I want to attitude. This is a case where making a kid attend college 1 year hurt him. He didn't work hard enough and GMs saw that. Will he be a good pro? probably based solely on physical makeup Great? I dont think its in his heart. I still think he is an example of someone being forced to play bball just because he is big. He's probably happier playing bball on game cube rather than being physical on the court

 

[visitor123]

If an NBA team wants to at a certain point (I think as early as 3rd year, maybe 4th?) rather than exercise options they can and will renegotiate a higher salary. It is not done frequently because there is a contractual way to keep players on the cheaper scale. But there are instances of re-doing contracts for superstars (Derrick Rose created a specific rule that allowed Chicago to redo even the #1 picks salary but that requires all-nba and/or MVP). Mostly I think it is done in 4th year to avoid restricted free agency and or pissing the guy off too much.

James Harden is a better example - he was under club option this year (his 4th) but then eligible to be a restricted free agent. OK City offered him a new contract at $53MM or so over 4yrs (tearing up rookie scale option contract) but he said no and was traded. Then Houston tore up the option and gave him $80MM over 5yrs.

Except you are completely wrong about the way NBA contracts are structured.

I'm not sure if NBA teams can decline 4th year options and offer a long term max extension in the 4th year for a first round pick but it hasn't been done as far as I'm aware of. You are confusing contract extensions (which are essentially new contracts) with 'renegotiated' contracts.

The contracts in the NBA are guaranteed, they are not renegotiable. Rookie scale contracts went from 3 + 1 team option to 2 + 2 year team options in the last CBA. The 5th year (4th summer) the team can extend a qualifying offer to preserve restricted free agency status and if a player wants to leave that team he would not only have to play 1 year below market value at the qualifying offer he would also have to forego his bird rights and sign for a new team under the cap for 1 year less and smaller raises. The idea that a team would have to decline team options on the rookie contract and offer a long term extension earlier to keep a star happy is unrealistic as of now. They have too much leverage.

Derrick Rose did not have his contract 're-done'. He's in his 5th year and is earning the first year of his max contract extension. His team options on his rookie contract have been exercised and are now over. The Derrick Rose rule has to do with the fact that if you don't have 6 years of NBA experience you can only earn a max contract of 25% of the salary cap. If you are exceptional in your first 4 years and qualify for the restrictions in the Derrick Rose you are able to earn 30% of the salary cap on a maximum contract as a 6 year veteran would.

Similarly James Harden did not have his rookie contract 'torn up'. He is still earning the last year of his rookie scale contract which OKC opted into. He was however, eligible for a new contract extension this summer and would have been a restricted free agent if he did not have a new contract negotiated. OKC was able to offered him a 4 year deal starting next year because one, they did not think he was a max player (or they couldn't afford a max player), and two, their logic being other teams trying to sign Harden would only be able to offer him 4 years without his bird rights. Houston was able to give Harden what he wanted, a 5 year max contract extension starting next year (max allowable years) after they traded for him and obtained his bird rights.

Without going into too much detail on Andre Drummond's situation. What others have said is true. The earlier he got into the league, the earlier he gets his max extension, the earlier he gains NBA veteran status, the earlier he gets super max contract on his 3rd contract. Staying would have been a mistake.

 

[Dogdeacon]

Except you are completely wrong about the way NBA contracts are structured.

I'm not sure if NBA teams can decline 4th year options and offer a long term max extension in the 4th year for a first round pick but it hasn't been done as far as I'm aware of. You are confusing contract extensions (which are essentially new contracts) with 'renegotiated' contracts.

The contracts in the NBA are guaranteed, they are not renegotiable. Rookie scale contracts went from 3 + 1 team option to 2 + 2 year team options in the last CBA. The 5th year (4th summer) the team can extend a qualifying offer to preserve restricted free agency status and if a player wants to leave that team he would not only have to play 1 year below market value at the qualifying offer he would also have to forego his bird rights and sign for a new team under the cap for 1 year less and smaller raises. The idea that a team would have to decline team options on the rookie contract and offer a long term extension earlier to keep a star happy is unrealistic as of now. They have too much leverage.

Derrick Rose did not have his contract 're-done'. He's in his 5th year and is earning the first year of his max contract extension. YHis team options on his rookie contract have been exercised and are now over. The Derrick Rose rule has to do with the fact that if you don't have 6 years of NBA experience you can only earn a max contract of 25% of the salary cap. If you are exceptional in your first 4 years and qualify for the restrictions in the Derrick Rose you are able to earn 30% of the salary cap on a maximum contract as a 6 year veteran would.

Similarly James Harden did not have his rookie contract 'torn up'. He is still earning the last year of his rookie scale contract which OKC opted into. He was however, eligible for a new contract extension this summer and would have been a restricted free agent if he did not have a new contract negotiated. OKC was able to offered him a 4 year deal starting next year because one, they did not think he was a max player (or they couldn't afford a max player), and two, their logic being other teams trying to sign Harden would only be able to offer him 4 years without his bird rights. Houston was able to give Harden what he wanted, a 5 year max contract extension starting next year (max allowable years) after they traded for him and obtained his bird rights.
.

Do you understand the word option? I think with respect to Harden you are right and 2012-13 came down to timing and OKC had already exercised that 4th year option and then it is guaranteed. So he's at that this year while signed for next 4 guaranteed at 80, = not much difference, he got a big contract guaranteed after 3 seasons. But I think Griffin or Curry got a new contract prior to their clubs exercising the 4th option.

Total busts can be out of the league after 2yrs, yet I think Portland kept throwing good money after bad for 4yrs holding out hope for Oden (further proof injuries much less risky for big guys).

The fact that the options are either exercised (good players) or dropped (busts) works against AD as unless he makes a huge jump to all star (very unlikely next yr, say 50-50 in His 3rd) he is stuck at his #9 pick salary scale of $3MM-ish until his 5th year. Better to be a #1 at $6MM-ish

 

[visitor123]

Do you understand the word option? I think with respect to Harden you are right and 2012-13 came down to timing and OKC had already exercised that 4th year option and then it is guaranteed. So he's at that this year while signed for next 4 guaranteed at 80, = not much difference, he got a big contract guaranteed after 3 seasons. But I think Griffin or Curry got a new contract prior to their clubs exercising the 4th option.

Total busts can be out of the league after 2yrs, yet I think Portland kept throwing good money after bad for 4yrs holding out hope for Oden (further proof injuries much less risky for big guys).

The fact that the options are either exercised (good players) or dropped (busts) works against AD as unless he makes a huge jump to all star (very unlikely next yr, say 50-50 in His 3rd) he is stuck at his #9 pick salary scale of $3MM-ish until his 5th year. Better to be a #1 at $6MM-ish

Uh you're right, I don't understand what that word means.

The 'team' option is for teams to get out of guaranteed contracts with busts. It has nothing to do with ending the option earlier to sign max contracts.

Stop making assumptions, you aren't good at them. So far you've assumed Rose, Harden and now Griffin, Curry have had their 4th year options declined. Again, neither Curry nor Griffin got new contracts in lieu of their 4th year options. They got new contract extensions after their 3rd year (that's when they can negotiate), however the contract extensions do not kick in until their 5th year following the expiration of their rookie scale contract.

You're completely missing the point on Drummond. Yes he's stuck at making 2 million a year less (in years 2-4) than he would were he a #1 pick a year later. However, in his 5th year he'll be making 13.5 million instead of 7, or if he makes an all NBA team he'll be making 15 million instead of 7. And similarly he'll get to his next contract faster as long as he keeps up his level of play.

 

[Chief00]

I wish AD well, why is it so hard for others to do?

 

[DrewDog85]

Please tell me who said or even suggested that NBA scouts would forget AD because of the NCAA tourney ban?

Between this discussion and the logo threads, I am convinced that the rate at which the internet is dumbing down the population is increasing exponentially.

The point is a very simple one: post-season conference tournaments and the NCAA tournament provide greater exposure and often lead to changes in perception by NBA decision makers (including scouts, GMs and, most importantly, owners) that result in movement within the draft. No post-season exposure limits that opportunity.

I feel stupider for having to even respond to this. BL, are you really this obtuse?

Please 8893 Now you should feel Stupid, Here is what you said:

"AD could very easily have gotten hosed this year, too, because of the lack of exposure due to our post-season ban"

.How did lack of Exposure work for Kyrie Erving?? Barely played at Duke

Fact is AD would have been evaluated over the reg season and Team Workouts

I love it when someone makes a DUMB post then lectures us when we label it a DUMB post!

BTW How much do you think the 1 and done last helped AD?

 

[Palatine]

Andre is in a perfect position. Plus his money should be earning money this year. Not sure another year at UConn would be that meaningful.

The biggest thing is that the Pistons have had the good sense to bring him along slowly. Let him learn without a lot of pressure. As they bring in pieces around him, he should really flower. As a overall #1 or #2, he would have been thrown to the wolves. This transition year should pay dividends for the rest of his career.

 

[Irishboy9780]

Really no reason he should have stayed... should just be happy we got him for one season. He's tearing it up and getting paid... glad for him.

 

[Kitaman]

Andre was a one and done, at the most two years. Based on this season's post season ban, new head coach, defections, and nothing to play for, I think its better then for AD to get paid to play (and to learn). He already had an NBA body, he just needed to develop NBA skills, which he is now getting a lot of money to develop/learn. He was above getting cut anyways so no risk there.

Right choice.

 

[CL82]

This is another of the hindsight posts that pop up from time to time on the board. AD made the right decision based uppon the information available at the time and is a multi-millionaire because of it.


That said, I sure would have like to have seen what KO would have done with AD. I have a lot of faith in our coach.

 

[Dogdeacon]

So far you've assumed Rose, Harden and now Griffin, Curry have had their 4th year options declined. OK BUT ROSE DID
Again, neither Curry nor Griffin got new contracts in lieu of their 4th year options. They got new contract extensions after their 3rd year (that's when they can negotiate), however the contract extensions do not kick in until their 5th year following the expiration of their rookie scale contract.

RE: missing the point on Drummond. Yes he's stuck at making 2 million [ACTUALLY IT IS ALMOST $3MM/YR] a year less (in years 2-4) than he would were he a #1 pick a year later. However, in his 5th year he'll be making 13.5 million instead of 7, or if he makes an all NBA team he'll be making 15 million instead of 7. And similarly he'll get to his next contract faster as long as he keeps up his level of play.

I get that 2/3 guesses were technically wrong. I neglected to incorporate how much the player's union sucked. So I took your advice & read the rules.

Since contracts are guaranteed, the difference between getting paid on a scale in year 4 & higher thereafter with a multi-year extension isn't much. Arguably the 4th year is part of the player's value or earnings which are equal to the total value of both contracts. So when a 3rd year player reaches his 4th year he locks in a mega-salary usually for 4-5 add'l years. In Griffin's case he's on the books for 7.2M in 2012-13 but he has a guaranteed asset of 99.7 for the next 5. Does it matter whether that it is $18MM over 6 or $7.2MM then $20M over 5? (assume time value of money irrelevant - these guys aren't investing their total contracts and earning 20%).

Also because there is a 30% increase guaranteed for those 2nd contracts, the potential value/merit to getting as high as possible in the lottery is even greater.

In Drummond's case over 8yrs he needs his 2nd contract to be $13.25MM (close to max) or greater for strictly the $ return of coming out a year early to earn more over the same period. So if Drummond signs at $13.425MM its a wash as below (for simplicity sake assumed no increases in both 2nd contracts) but note the downside risk much greater (note Drummond'd min 5th year 4.2 vs #1 pick min 9.6) due to the 30% inc qualifying offer:
Drummond v 2013 #1 Pick
2012-13 $2,356,320
2013-14 $2,462,400 v $5,324,280
2014-15 $2,568,360 v $5,563,976
2015-16 $3,272,090 v $5,803,400
2016-17 $13,425,000 (min $4.25) v $7,393,530
2017-18 $13,425,000 v $13.425-(MIN$9.6)
2018-19 $13,425,000 v $13,425,000
2019-20 $13,425,000 v $13,425,000
2020-21 $64,359,170 $64,360,186

I agree with your general conclusion that the sooner you can get past the 4yrs the better. But there is a mathematical argument that if you are VERY VERY likely to advance say 8+ spots in draft order it is worth staying - certainly at 10+ spots it becomes almost a no-brainer to stay. Of course these decisions can only be educated guesses. But it is worth looking at and studying the history. This is why some players come back to college, it is not unheard of and can be a smart decision. Ie. In above add extra endorsements from #1 pick and that wins, maybe even vs a max 2nd contract.

 

[8893]

Please 8893 Now you should feel Stupid, Here is what you said:

"AD could very easily have gotten hosed this year, too, because of the lack of exposure due to our post-season ban"

.How did lack of Exposure work for Kyrie Erving?? Barely played at Duke

Fact is AD would have been evaluated over the reg season and Team Workouts

I love it when someone makes a DUMB post then lectures us when we label it a DUMB post!

BTW How much do you think the 1 and done last helped AD?

Thank you for posting what I wrote, which is in stark contrast to what you suggested I wrote. Sorry to disappoint you, but that doesn't make me feel stupid. Or even Stupid. Or DUMB.

Fact is, AD was evaluated over his regular season, post-season and team workouts last year. His stock dropped because there were questions about his motor, but he was still drafted in the top ten. No one knows what would have happened if he stayed with us for another season. I think he would have fared better under KO, but that wasn't the scenario he was evaluating when he made his decision. No one can say whether those questions about his motor would have remained and caused the same concerns this year; and the lack of a post-season would have limited his opportunities to show otherwise.

I wanted AD to come back, but I had no idea what to expect from him after watching his first season. I think the questions about his motor were legitimate, but something clearly clicked for him this year. The suggestion that that same improvement would have happened irrespective of what he did this year is pure speculation with no valid basis imo.

 

[visitor123]

In Drummond's case over 8yrs he needs his 2nd contract to be $13.25MM (close to max) or greater for strictly the $ return of coming out a year early to earn more over the same period. So if Drummond signs at $13.425MM its a wash as below (for simplicity sake assumed no increases in both 2nd contracts) but note the downside risk much greater (note Drummond'd min 5th year 4.2 vs #1 pick min 9.6) due to the 30% inc qualifying offer:
Drummond v 2013 #1 Pick
2012-13 $2,356,320
2013-14 $2,462,400 v $5,324,280
2014-15 $2,568,360 v $5,563,976
2015-16 $3,272,090 v $5,803,400
2016-17 $13,425,000 (min $4.25) v $7,393,530
2017-18 $13,425,000 v $13.425-(MIN$9.6)
2018-19 $13,425,000 v $13,425,000
2019-20 $13,425,000 v $13,425,000
2020-21 $64,359,170 $64,360,186

I agree with your general conclusion that the sooner you can get past the 4yrs the better. But there is a mathematical argument that if you are VERY VERY likely to advance say 8+ spots in draft order it is worth staying - certainly at 10+ spots it becomes almost a no-brainer to stay. Of course these decisions can only be educated guesses. But it is worth looking at and studying the history. This is why some players come back to college, it is not unheard of and can be a smart decision. Ie. In above add extra endorsements from #1 pick and that wins, maybe even vs a max 2nd contract.

We're kind of in a pissing match so I'll stop. I'll just say if you're talking about min contracts and risk then clearly getting out early is better. We're working with the premise that if he outplays his contract and becomes a superstar then which is better. At least that's what you stated a few posts back.

You are also wrong about the salary. You're forgetting about raises.

"2017-18 $13,425,000 v $13.425-(MIN$9.6)"

In actuality Andre would be making 13.425 + max raise vs 13.425. It would be like that every year after. Andre always makes more in scenario one.