Analysis and Comments - UConn vs Jackson State - Round of 64

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Well here we go the time of the year we all live for. I took time off from doing the analysis during the Big East since it would have been rather redundant as UConn had already played many of the teams twice as UConn was going to play some of them for the third time. During the NCAAs we will be facing teams for the first time. Jackson State is one such team.

I will begin by saying that Jackson State was 26 and 6 overall for the season. While it is an impressive record playing in the SWAC warrants a closer look. Jackson State has an RPI of 74 and an SOS of 288. UConn's ended the season with an RPI ranking of 3 and a SOS ranking of 4. Jackson State won their conference tournament handily defeating Prarie View A & M in the first round 67-58; Arkansas Pine-Bluff - 70 to 48 in the second round and in the final match-up Jackson State won the tournament championship against Alcorn State 68-44.

Jackson State averages 71.6 points per game. They shoot FGs at .401 on 3-pointers at .287 and they make 17.6 free throws per game while shooting them at .708. They get an astounding 43.4 rebounds per game...probably there are a lot of rebounds to be had as it is a function of teams including Jackson State shooting the ball poorly from the field. They turn the ball over 15.1 times per game...I can just imagine how many turnovers we will see when they face UConn's stifling defense. Interestingly they force 16.7 turnovers from their opponents and score 16.9 points off turnovers. They average 8.0 steals per game and 5.2 blocks per game.

This Jackson State team is very experienced and they have great height. They will start four graduate students and one senior. They bring 1 graduate student, 1 red shirt senior, 1 junior and 1 sophomore off the bench. Their starters are Keshuna Luckett, 5'8" graduate guard; Miya Crump, 6'1" graduate guard; Ti'lan Boler, 6'1" senior guard;
Angel Jackson, 6'6" graduate center; and Zakiya Mahony, 5'10" graduate guard. They will bring of the bench the following players: Andrianna Avent, 6'0" red shirt senior; Ja'leah Hickman, 6'0" graduate guard; Laila Walker, 6'5" sophomore center; Areyanna Hunter, 5'6" junior guard; and Hayliegh Breland, 5'7" sophomore guard.

ANALYSIS

Aliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Angel Jackson, 6'6" - Okay, while Aliyah will be giving up three inches...I don't think Angel has seen anyone with the footwork and speed that Aaliyah possesses. Aliyah will be a first-round draft pick (more than likely a lottery pick) in the WNBA at the end of this season. Angel plays 26.6 minutes per game and averages 9.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and .9 blocks per game against competition in the bottom quadrant of the NCAA field. Aaliyah averages 17.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.8 steals. and 9 blocks per game. I think Angel will always remember that she played against one of the best post players in college basketball.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0 vs Ti'lan Boler, 6'1" - Ti'lan averages 11.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, .8 assists, and 1.1 three-pointers per game. She will have her hands full with trying to defend Paige Bueckers who is probably the best all-around basketball player in college basketball. Paige is averaging a team-high 21.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. She also knocks down 2.2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Miya Crump, 6'1 - Miya averages 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.5 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. It is going to be difficult for Miya with Nika smothering her every move. Nika averages 7.1 points, 4 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. While Miya shooting and rebounding statistics on paper eclipse Nika's I believe Nika's impact on the game will be much greater than Miya's. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Zakiya Mahoney, 5'10 - Zakiya averages 5.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, .8 assists, and .5 steals per game. She averages 18.4 minutes per game and I think we will see Andrianna Avent, 6'0" split time with Zakiya. Andrianna averages 12.3 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. She is Jackson State's best three-point shooter averaging 2 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn will do just fine defending either one of them. Ashlynn is averaging 11 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn should have no problem containing both Zakiya and Andrianna. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Keshuna Luckett, 5'8" - Keshuna averages 6.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and, 8 steals per game. I think KK's freshmen year is over and she is a kid who has already begun her sophomore leap as was evident in her play of late. KK averages 9.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-points per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

Jackson State will bring 23.7 points and 12.2 rebounds off the bench. UConn will only have three bench players available (Ice Brady, Qadance Samuels and Ines Bettencourt. They combine for 10.4 points and 6.9 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - JACKSON STATE

INTANGIBLES

UConn is used to the big stage, they have faced much tougher competition during the season, the game will be a home game for UConn. They are much more talented and athletic. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Geno and his staff will get the job done and at the end of the day, they will be moving onto the field of 32. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 94
JACKSON STATE - 52

MOV - 42

 

[Zarathustra]

Very Nice Summary, as usual.... MANY THANKS FOR YOUR EFFORTS.
I will have a closer MOV ... but... my poor brain needs time to digest the
range of possibilities. GO NIKA, get those assists!!!!

 

[caseyb7]

Always look forward to these analysis.

One of my favorite threads.

Thank you.

 

[huskeynut]

Well done analysis.

UConn will prevail.

 

[topogigio]

Very nicely done, thanks. Me thinks this will be a "breathe easy" game.

 

[Tonyc]

Always a great analysis. In the BET opponents had problems scoring against UConns defense and were under duress for most of the game. Jackson St is going to have a very difficult time. This game could be over in a very short time.

 

[Artifact]

Remember ! Everyone who plays against UConn, attempts to to play their 'Best Game' !

 

[Urshurak]

This game is not going to be as easy as a lot of people seem to think. UConn should win, but bear in mind that if this team was in the Big East, they would probably be in the top 25%. They beat St. Johns who finished 3rd in Big East.

Never underestimate your component. Someone said "Breathe easy" game? Boy, I sure hope so, but I expect JS's best punch.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks for this, @cferraro04. Excellent analysis. I see it the same way you do — except for Aaliyah getting 9 blocks per game . I think they’ll find our defense stifling and don’t have the foot speed to do the same to us. They may have a rebounding advantage, though I think their season average was built on playing much smaller teams.

I expect Paige Nika KK and Ash will disrupt their passing game and force a lot of turnovers. In particular, I think they’ll throw a lot of passes away trying to get the ball into the low post. They have a scary looking height advantage, but without a good perimeter shooting game I expect it will be useless to them on offense.

I don’t know if we’ll score in the 90s or have a huge MoV. But I suspect we may put the game away in first quarter.

 

[Urshurak]

The Clarion Ledger final paragraph on their prediction. Hilarious!

Score prediction​

Jackson State 73, UConn 69: UConn may be without Edwards, a top five WNBA projected draft pick, but even if she plays, her minutes likely will be limited. Jackson, the two-time SWAC defensive player of the year, should feel confident in matching up with Edwards.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

Uconn's defense rules!
No problem with Jackson St.

 

[cferraro04]

Thanks for this, @cferraro04. Excellent analysis. I see it the same way you do — except for Aaliyah getting 9 blocks per game . I think they’ll find our defense stifling and don’t have the foot speed to do the same to us. They may have a rebounding advantage, though I think their season average was built on playing much smaller teams.

I expect Paige Nika KK and Ash will disrupt their passing game and force a lot of turnovers. In particular, I think they’ll throw a lot of passes away trying to get the ball into the low post. They have a scary looking height advantage, but without a good perimeter shooting game I expect it will be useless to them on offense.

I don’t know if we’ll score in the 90s or have a huge MoV. But I suspect we may put the game away in first quarter.

thanks Bone Dog...good points...I am excited to get this underway...Go Huskies!

 

[donalddoowop]

I read at least three articles yesterday that said Jackson State will pull an upset over UConn.

 

[WiseWillie]

The Clarion Ledger final paragraph on their prediction. Hilarious!

Score prediction​

Jackson State 73, UConn 69: UConn may be without Edwards, a top five WNBA projected draft pick, but even if she plays, her minutes likely will be limited. Jackson, the two-time SWAC defensive player of the year, should feel confident in matching up with Edwards.

We bleeding blue Boneyarders need to be ever tolerant of others' opinions even when those opinions happen to fly in the face of reality. A knowing, silent smile instead of a loud laugh would be appropriate.

 

[Bone Dog]

Defensive energy comes and goes. It’s hard to sustain it across a game, much less a season. UConn’s defensive energy was very high in the BE tournament. If they can maintain that level of energy, they’ll go far. I remember watching UCLA USC and Stanford games mid season and thinking how low their energy was. But by the end of the season their energy was much higher. The opposite seemed to be the case in the SEC, high energy all season and then low energy in the tournament.

 

[cferraro04]

I read at least three articles yesterday that said Jackson State will pull an upset over UConn.

I was surprised to read of Jackson State's height. They will certainly bring a huge height advantage to their first and last game in the NCAA championships this season. I am supremely confident that David will slay Goliath on Saturday.

 

[Inthepaint]

Always a great analysis. In the BET opponents had problems scoring against UConns defense and were under duress for most of the game. Jackson St is going to have a very difficult time. This game could be over in a very short time.

Odds are that it SHOULD be a piece of cake.
Problem is nobody told Jackson State that they’re supposed to lose.
They probably think they have a shot at a big upset.
I’m looking for a physical grind in the first half. The weight of talent & experience should start to tell in the 3rd quarter
SHOULD

 

[FormerCTrez]

I read at least three articles yesterday that said Jackson State will pull an upset over UConn.

Anything is possible, and that’s why this part of the season is known as March Madness. But, I have a very strong believe that UConn is, and at the very least, will be prepared for the Jackson State Tigers. Go Huskies!, Go UConn!!

 

[VaConnFan11]

Jackson St has more turnovers than assists against weak competition. How many shots are they actually going to take versus UConn.

 

[Geew1992]

The Clarion Ledger final paragraph on their prediction. Hilarious!

Score prediction​

Jackson State 73, UConn 69: UConn may be without Edwards, a top five WNBA projected draft pick, but even if she plays, her minutes likely will be limited. Jackson, the two-time SWAC defensive player of the year, should feel confident in matching up with Edwards.

I think he may have Edwards all wrong. I don't think she will be limited at all...... Unless she limits herself.

 

[cferraro04]

I think he may have Edwards all wrong. I don't think she will be limited at all...... Unless she limits herself.

I believe the report on Edwards is that she will be 100 percent ready on Saturday.

 

[WLT1717]

COMMENTS

Well here we go the time of the year we all live for. I took time off from doing the analysis during the Big East since it would have been rather redundant as UConn had already played many of the teams twice as UConn was going to play some of them for the third time. During the NCAAs we will be facing teams for the first time. Jackson State is one such team.

I will begin by saying that Jackson State was 26 and 6 overall for the season. While it is an impressive record playing in the SWAC warrants a closer look. Jackson State has an RPI of 74 and an SOS of 288. UConn's ended the season with an RPI ranking of 3 and a SOS ranking of 4. Jackson State won their conference tournament handily defeating Prarie View A & M in the first round 67-58; Arkansas Pine-Bluff - 70 to 48 in the second round and in the final match-up Jackson State won the tournament championship against Alcorn State 68-44.

Jackson State averages 71.6 points per game. They shoot FGs at .401 on 3-pointers at .287 and they make 17.6 free throws per game while shooting them at .708. They get an astounding 43.4 rebounds per game...probably there are a lot of rebounds to be had as it is a function of teams including Jackson State shooting the ball poorly from the field. They turn the ball over 15.1 times per game...I can just imagine how many turnovers we will see when they face UConn's stifling defense. Interestingly they force 16.7 turnovers from their opponents and score 16.9 points off turnovers. They average 8.0 steals per game and 5.2 blocks per game.

This Jackson State team is very experienced and they have great height. They will start four graduate students and one senior. They bring 1 graduate student, 1 red shirt senior, 1 junior and 1 sophomore off the bench. Their starters are Keshuna Luckett, 5'8" graduate guard; Miya Crump, 6'1" graduate guard; Ti'lan Boler, 6'1" senior guard;
Angel Jackson, 6'6" graduate center; and Zakiya Mahony, 5'10" graduate guard. They will bring of the bench the following players: Andrianna Avent, 6'0" red shirt senior; Ja'leah Hickman, 6'0" graduate guard; Laila Walker, 6'5" sophomore center; Areyanna Hunter, 5'6" junior guard; and Hayliegh Breland, 5'7" sophomore guard.

ANALYSIS

Aliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Angel Jackson, 6'6" - Okay, while Aliyah will be giving up three inches...I don't think Angel has seen anyone with the footwork and speed that Aaliyah possesses. Aliyah will be a first-round draft pick (more than likely a lottery pick) in the WNBA at the end of this season. Angel plays 26.6 minutes per game and averages 9.9 points, 6.9 rebounds and .9 blocks per game against competition in the bottom quadrant of the NCAA field. Aaliyah averages 17.8 points, 9.3 rebounds, 1.8 steals. and 9 blocks per game. I think Angel will always remember that she played against one of the best post players in college basketball.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0 vs Ti'lan Boler, 6'1" - Ti'lan averages 11.7 points, 3.9 rebounds, .8 assists, and 1.1 three-pointers per game. She will have her hands full with trying to defend Paige Bueckers who is probably the best all-around basketball player in college basketball. Paige is averaging a team-high 21.3 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 2.1 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game. She also knocks down 2.2 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Miya Crump, 6'1 - Miya averages 11.6 points, 6.4 rebounds, 1.4 assists, 1.5 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. It is going to be difficult for Miya with Nika smothering her every move. Nika averages 7.1 points, 4 rebounds, 6.4 assists, 1.4 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. While Miya shooting and rebounding statistics on paper eclipse Nika's I believe Nika's impact on the game will be much greater than Miya's. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Zakiya Mahoney, 5'10 - Zakiya averages 5.2 points, 4.0 rebounds, .8 assists, and .5 steals per game. She averages 18.4 minutes per game and I think we will see Andrianna Avent, 6'0" split time with Zakiya. Andrianna averages 12.3 points and 3.1 rebounds per game. She is Jackson State's best three-point shooter averaging 2 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn will do just fine defending either one of them. Ashlynn is averaging 11 points, 3.2 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn should have no problem containing both Zakiya and Andrianna. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Keshuna Luckett, 5'8" - Keshuna averages 6.8 points, 2.5 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and, 8 steals per game. I think KK's freshmen year is over and she is a kid who has already begun her sophomore leap as was evident in her play of late. KK averages 9.0 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .8 three-points per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

Jackson State will bring 23.7 points and 12.2 rebounds off the bench. UConn will only have three bench players available (Ice Brady, Qadance Samuels and Ines Bettencourt. They combine for 10.4 points and 6.9 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - JACKSON STATE

INTANGIBLES

UConn is used to the big stage, they have faced much tougher competition during the season, the game will be a home game for UConn. They are much more talented and athletic. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Geno and his staff will get the job done and at the end of the day, they will be moving onto the field of 32. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 94
JACKSON STATE - 52

MOV - 42

Thank you for compiling this info!

 

[#12in21]

The Clarion Ledger final paragraph on their prediction. Hilarious!

Score prediction​

Jackson State 73, UConn 69: UConn may be without Edwards, a top five WNBA projected draft pick, but even if she plays, her minutes likely will be limited. Jackson, the two-time SWAC defensive player of the year, should feel confident in matching up with Edwards.

Nika's tenth assist, another lob into Aaliyah, coming before the first half ends will pretty likely be a more accurate prediction than the one offered by the Clarion Ledger

 

[joea]

Jackson State has 2 things over UConn - size and depth.
I believe they will try to pull an ND on Buekers - essentially have one player follow her all over the court, double and triple team whenever she gets the ball, and run a number of people at her.
Then they will use their size to make the game, as they say these days, physical.
UConn should win particularly if they take care of defensive rebounding, pressure defense (steals and turnovers) and play as up tempo as possible.