Analysis and Comments - UConn vs Iowa - Final Four (Game 5 - NCAA Tournament)

[LwrcasefaN]

Clark needs the ball to score. Therefore to get a 'high score' , she needs to be fed the ball, frequently ! Look at the people ,who mainly feed her the ball ! NO ball , NO bucket !

She'll have the ball right on the inbounds. She feeds...rarely fed. Play the best D you can on her and attack the others.

 

[Kat]

Great analysis, as usual. I'd give a bit more of an edge to Marshall but that's quibbling. I think that Ice Brady will be the X factor. She's a blue chipper who will step up in this big game.

 

[#12in21]

Went back and watched Iowa/UConn from 11/22. If I were Geno, I would feed the post all day long and play inside-out. I don't think we can handle Aaliyah at all My biggest concern for Iowa is defense, so good ball movement and post feeds should do the trick.

I think Caitlin will be better about off-the-ball movement and driving the ball this time. She was pretty stagnant that entire game when she didn't have the ball in her hands. If she plays the way she did vs. LSU, it's an Iowa win by 10. If she doesn't, then I think it's a tossup favoring UConn slightly.

Iowa's best chance is to make it an up and down game, hoping to wear out the Huskies thin lineup and draw fouls. If UConn keeps Iowa under 80, they win again. When I look at Iowa's 2-5 compared to UConn's 2-5, I certainly don't see an advantage.

The difference between this game and the last is that this is a win or go home situation. I think you see a different Caitlin than you did the last time the Hawks and Huskies played. Should be a good one.

I think you need to edit this sentence (my bold in your post) to read: The difference between this game and the last is that Paige Beuckers will be on the court and this is a win or go home situation. A fairly significant omission!

 

[BrewHawk]

I think you need to edit this sentence (my bold in your post) to read: The difference between this game and the last is that Paige Beuckers will be on the court and this is a win or go home situation. A fairly significant omission!

Yes, both teams are quite different from what they were the last time they played each other.

 

[David54]

Women's Final 4 tickets double the price of men's

The average price of women's NCAA Final Four tickets on the resale market was twice as high as that for the men's semifinals, according to a technology company that analyzes prices across multiple outlets.

www.espn.com

 

[Geesworld]

NIKA! NIKA! NIKA!

Again Nika is the key to success Paige and Aaliyah will be who they are.
Iowa will more than likely go zone for periods of the game especially if they get a lead and force us to play up hill. Nika will have to hit some shots to take pressure off Paige and Aaliyah.
Nika gets 8-10 pts 6 rebs, 6-8 ast
2 3-pointers made. We win this game.

Ashlyn needs to join the party early. Her dribble pull up could be a key factor this game. I see her intangibles being a big difference in this game.

KK drives to the basket will always be there. If she stays aggressive I see easy assist to Aaliyah. But we need her to be able to make them. To many missed bunnies from KK.

Limit open 3's from players not named Caitlin Clark.

 

[OldSchooler]

CAITLIN vs PAIGE:

On Monday night, Caitlin scored 41 against LSU, shooting 45% from the field. Paige scored 28 against USC, shooting 48% from the field.

Each player took 29 shots from the field. 20 of Caitlin's 29 FGAs were from 3-point range, making 9 of them (45%). 6 of Paige's 29 FGAs were from downtown, making 3 of them (50%).

I'm glad we have Paige, and they don't.

 

[Longtime fan]

COMMENTS

UConn has been competing in the NCAA Tournament since 1989. This is their 23rd Final Four appearance. UConn women have advanced to the final four in 15 of the last 16 years. This is the fifth time that both the UConn men and the UConn women have advanced to the Final Four. It is no wonder Storrs, CT is referred to as "The Basketball Capitol of the World". The USC game was very tough. We were out-sized, they had a deeper bench, they had more upperclassmen starting, and their lone freshman starter was the second-best scorer in the country. Yet, our injury-laden team, complete with two freshmen starting and two coming off the bench found a way to prevail. While Las Vegas had us a 2 and half point favorite there were many pundits who thought that UConn had over-achieved to get to the elite 8 and had written them off as missing this year's Final Four. Rebecca Lobo...was the "lone wolf" (you like that "Lobo - Wolf"...just in case you didn't catch it). She unapologetically predicted UConn to beat USC. I had UConn by 4 points in the prognostication thread...and I was on the money up until the last two minutes when USC was intentionally fouling UConn. No matter I wouldn't want to spoil my record of not being able to get the score right all season. The injuries and depleted roster made it very difficult for me to predict the score and MOV. My homerism will not allow me to predict a loss for the Huskies because in my Blue/white-colored glass world does not allow me to consider such blasphemy. This game is no different. A precursory evaluation of the starters at first blush shows a UConn Advantage (more on that later in the analysis). This first look flies in the face of the fact that Iowa averages over 90 points per game. I think if UConn stays out of foul trouble and is able to play their brand of defense Iowa's final score will be below its average.

Caitlin Clark is Caitlin Clark...she is going to get hers. She is a high-volume shooter and even if she misses 7 or 8 in a row...she will keep on shooting and eventually she will start finding the basket. Her ability to get other players involved is equally challenging to her ability to score the basketball. Her 9 assists per game allow her to participate in roughly 70 percent of all the baskets made by the Iowa team. Hannah Stuelke and Kate Martin are a part of the Iowa Hawkeye's reputation of being an offensive juggernaut. UConn's strategy will have to be slowing down Caitlin enough to cause her to play below her averages while containing her supporting cast. This will only be accomplished if UConn is able to get its defense percolating on all cylinders.

Iowa will start:
1. Caitlin Clark, 6'0" - Senior Guard;
2. Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Sophomore Forward;
3. Kate Martin, 6'0" - Graduate Guard;
4. Sydney Affolter, 5'11" - Junior Guard;
5. Gabbie Marshall, 5'9" - Graduate Guard.

In close games, Iowa's coach will shorten its bench and its starters will all play most of the game. When they get a good-sized lead Iowa's coach will substitute liberally and spread out the minutes among the bench players. In close games, these three players will get the most minutes off the bench.

After Hannah Stuelke goes out of the game Iowa will play:
1. Addison O'Grady, 6'3" - Junior Forward / Center who averages 8 minutes per game;
2. Kylie Feierbach, 6'0" - RS Junior Guard who averages 14 minutes per game;
3. Sharon Goodman, 6'3" - RS Junior Center who averages who averages 9 minutes per game.

Iowa averages an astounding 91.9 points per game while holding opponents to 71.5 points per game. Their potent offense is augmented by their shooting 11.1 three-pointers per game. Their opponents average 7.9 threes per game. They are a pretty good rebounding team averaging 41.8 rebounds per game while holding their opponents to 34.8 rebounds. They move the ball around pretty good averaging 21.2 assists per game. They take pretty good care of the basketball turning it over 13.9 times per game while forcing their opponents to turn the basketball over 14.4 times per game. Their defense produces 7.5 steals per game while their opponent's average is 7.3 steals per game. They also are able to get 3.4 blocks per game.

Their RPI is 18 while UConn's is 4. Iowa's SOS is 21 and UConn's is 5. Their record is 33-4. UConn's defense is rated number 27 in the country while Iowa's is rated number 314.

Analysis

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Hannah Stuelke, 6'2" - Hannah averages 13.8 points, 6.8 rebounds, 1.2 assists, .8 steals. If she stays out of foul trouble she will play most of the game...If she gets into foul trouble then Addison O'Grady will come into the game. She averages 4.1 points and 1.9 rebounds. Aaliyah is gleeful that she has gotten the opportunity to play one more weekend with her team before she goes off to the WNBA. She will play hard to get her team into the finals as I am sure Hannah will also. Aaliyah averages 17.6 points, 9.3 rebounds, 2.0 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.0 blocks per game. Advantage - UConn

Paige Beuckers, 6.0 vs Kate Martin, 6.0 - Kate averages 13.1 points, 6.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.3 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. Paige has been having an incredible post-season. It seems that she will not allow UConn to lose and always does what is needed when it is needed to ensure a victory. This was especially evident in the USC game. She is averaging 22.0 points, 5.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 2.1 three-pointers, 2.3 steals, and 1.4 blocks. Advantage - UConn

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Caitlin Clark, 6'0" - Caitlin will get her points and assists as it is impossible to guard her for a whole game out at the logo. Even if she shoots poorly she will continue shooting and at the end of the day, she will get hers. We are hoping that Nika can keep her below her averages and that our other players can force Iowa to beat us from the other positions on the floor. That being said, Caitlin's numbers are just plain ridiculous. She is averaging 32 points, 7.3 rebounds 9.0 assists, 1.8 steals, and 5.2 three-pointers per game. NIka averages 6.8 points, 4 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 1.2 steals, and 1.3 three-pointers per game. If Nika can stay out of foul trouble and keep Caitlin to the mid-twenties in scoring many would consider that a win...but from a strictly production level and from an overall impact on the game: Advantage - Iowa

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Sydney Affolter, 5'11" - Sydney will play most of the game if UConn keeps it close or leads. If Iowa gets out to a large lead then expect Molly Davis to get into the game or Kylie Freierback. Sydney averages 8.3 points, 6.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists, and .6 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn averages 11.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1 steal, and 1.7 three-pointers per game. Advantage - Even

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Gabbie Marshall, 5'9" - Gabbie is averaging 6.1 points, 1.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 1.7 three-pointers, 1.7 steals, and 1.1 blocks...she is somewhat of a stat-stuffer and though her numbers may not be of the gaudy kind she impacts the game in many ways. In a way, she is a good match-up for KK. KK's defense may cause Gabbie to not be able to do what she wants to which will throw her off of her rhythm but we will have to see how that shakes out. KK averages 8.8 points, 3.1 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers. I believe KK's impact on the game will overshadow what it is that Gabbie is able to do in this game.
Advantage - UConn

BENCH

Iowa will bring 17.3 points and 8.9 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 9.4 points and 5.9 rebounds off the bench.
Advantage - Iowa

INTANGIBLES

UConn's short bench, Their small margin of error (magnifying their foul trouble), their lower offensive output, and they have Caitlin Clark all add up to Iowa's favor.
On the other hand, the fact that UConn's defense is rated 27 while Iowa's defense is rated 314, they are in the Final Four with nothing to lose (playing with the house's money so to speak), they have Paige Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards and they have the coach of the year all add up to UConn's favor. Advantage - UConn

COACHING

Iowa has a very good coach and the players definitely have buy-in to her playbook however, Geno has done a remarkable job this year coaching this team and helping them to navigate the adversity that they have had to face. He has been here many times before. UConn's veteran coaching staff will have this team prepared for the Caitlin Clark show. Advantage - UConn

SCORE

UConn - 83
Iowa - 74

MOV - 9

Once again, I believe you are over-rating our two wonderful freshmen guards. Neither is having a particularly good run in the last two games. On defense, they are terrific. But on offense, we are getting little. So I would make those match-ups both even, no UCONN advantage. Thanks for your analysis.

 

[BobbyJ]

CAITLIN vs PAIGE:

On Monday night, Caitlin scored 41 against LSU, shooting 45% from the field. Paige scored 28 against USC, shooting 48% from the field.

Each player took 29 shots from the field. 20 of Caitlin's 29 FGAs were from 3-point range, making 9 of them (45%). 6 of Paige's 29 FGAs were from downtown, making 3 of them (50%).

I'm glad we have Paige, and they don't.

Bueckers took 23 shots. 3 pointers are included in her total shots. 11-23.

 

[cferraro04]

Once again, I believe you are over-rating our two wonderful freshmen guards. Neither is having a particularly good run in the last two games. On defense, they are terrific. But on offense, we are getting little. So I would make those match-ups both even, no UCONN advantage. Thanks for your analysis.

I took another look at my analysis...I have it even with Ashlynn Shade and Sydney Affolter. But no matter how I look at the Gabbie Marshall vs KK Arnold match-up...I just don't see it other than a UConn Advantage. Is it possible in a single game for Gabbie to outplay KK? Sure it is...but, the numbers are the numbers and over the season KK has put up better numbers. She has done it on a team that is #5 RPI and #4 SOS. Gabbie will be playing against the #27 defense in WCBB while KK will be playing against the #314 defense in WCBB. After a careful re-evaluation...I have to respectfully disagree with you. The advantage stays with UConn.

Gabbie Marshall - 6.1 points per game
KK Arnold - 8.8 points per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.1 rebounds per game
KK Arnold - 3.1 rebound per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.7 assists per game
KK Arnold - 3.1 assists per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.7 steals per game
KK Arnold - 2.2 steals per game

Gabbie Marshall - 1.7 three-pointers per game
KK Arnold - .7 three-pointers per game

Defense - Advantage - KK Arnold.

Overall - (Nothing has changed): Advantage - UConn

 

[OldSchooler]

Bueckers took 23 shots. 3 pointers are included in her total shots. 11-23.

My mistake, Bobby. My second paragraph should have read:

20 of Caitlin's 29 FGAs were from 3-point range, making 9 of them (45%). 6 of Paige's 23 FGAs were from downtown, making 3 of them (50%).

 

[Tonyc]

Well Iowa is not a very good defensive team. UConn is. Thats about all you need to know. Barring injuries and foul trouble UConn should win this game with its defense. I expect everybody else for UConn to be able to score because Iowas defense is in the high 300s. We have already seen what UConns defense has done and that should be enough proof

 

[Urshurak]

Disagree on KK and Gabbie. I’ll be nice and call it even. Advantage UConn? No….

 

[schmendrick]

Thank you, @cferraro04, for yet another outstanding analysis.

I would just add that, as commentators have pointed out, Caitlin was able to go off in large part bc for some reason Kim had Hailey Van Lith, at 5'6", guarding her, and that was a massive mismatch from the start. Don't believe Geno will make the same mistake. Also, Angel Reese was flowing until she jammed her ankle; from then on, she was not the same.

Maybe none of that means anything; who knows. What I know is it's April, we're still playing, we're 40 minutes from the final, and anything can happen.

 

[jaydee602]

Here are the Final Four refs:

• Gina Denise Cross.
• Angelica Janell Suffren.
• Joe Vaszily.
• Roy Gulbeyan.
• Eric Brewton.
• Katie Lukanich.
• Melissa Barlow.
• In'Fini Robinson.
• Tiffany Bird Nelson.
• Brenda Pantoja.
• Brian Hall.

No Dee Kantner, but Joe Vaszily made the cut.
Brian Hall officiated the UCONN/ USC game & did a nice job.
Eric Brewton is notorious for calling technical fouls.

 

[RSHERMVIKES]

As a team Iowa is undervalued!
This season they have played better defense than in the past!
Caitlin like Paige makes her teammates better!
Marshall, Martin, & Clark have played together for all 4 years and really know each other!
Both teams have outstanding coaching staffs that have been together a long time!
We have Nika Muhl and Iowa doesn't! Previously Nika frustrated Caitlin to scream at her teammates, "get #10 off my back!"
With all that being said UConn is a team on a mission and believe all they have gone through these past 3 years have welded them into a well-oiled machine that their strength is what they overcame to get there!
UConn will win by 7 to 8 points, but possibly more if UConn can get on a UConn 4th period roll!

 

[Bone Dog]

I just watched the replay of the USC game -- finally found the March Madness video -- and all I can say is Wow! This was a tough game and Paige & Co simply played tougher than USC did. They got tired at the end and let USC back in the game, but then shut them down with tough D.

If the girls play like that they should win on Friday. That was some hard nosed defense Nika and Paige played against Juju. I doubt Caitlin will do much better than Juju did. My guess is Paige will go off for as many points as are needed, and I really can't see Stuelke managing to do anything with Aaliyah. I mean, if Marshall couldn't at 6'4" and really strong, Stuelke at 6'2' and not quite so strong won't be able to either. Aaliyah outplayed Czinano last year and I don't see that changing with Stuelke.

 

[Zonepress]

Went back and watched Iowa/UConn from 11/22. If I were Geno, I would feed the post all day long and play inside-out. I don't think we can handle Aaliyah at all My biggest concern for Iowa is defense, so good ball movement and post feeds should do the trick.

I think Caitlin will be better about off-the-ball movement and driving the ball this time. She was pretty stagnant that entire game when she didn't have the ball in her hands. If she plays the way she did vs. LSU, it's an Iowa win by 10. If she doesn't, then I think it's a tossup favoring UConn slightly.

Iowa's best chance is to make it an up and down game, hoping to wear out the Huskies thin lineup and draw fouls. If UConn keeps Iowa under 80, they win again. When I look at Iowa's 2-5 compared to UConn's 2-5, I certainly don't see an advantage.

The difference between this game and the last is that this is a win or go home situation. I think you see a different Caitlin than you did the last time the Hawks and Huskies played. Should be a good one.

I
As always key for UConn is staying out of foul trouble
The other key is the tempo of the game
Iowa wants to play the game in the 80-90s
UConn wants more of a half court game

If those two things happen uconn has a very good chance to win

All that being said, it really comes down to how well does each team play
I don’t think Iowa can play any better than they played against LSU
Can they play another game at that level?
Can UConn have contributions from all seven players, like they did against USC?
Will find out and that’s why they play the games!!!!

 

[packwrap]

Once again, I believe you are over-rating our two wonderful freshmen guards. Neither is having a particularly good run in the last two games. On defense, they are terrific. But on offense, we are getting little. So I would make those match-ups both even, no UCONN advantage. Thanks for your analysis.

I think we may be surprised by our freshman guards. The win over USC loosened up this team to play free. Playing against Syracuse (Fair), USC (juju), and Duke gave them hands on experience against quick guards, big athletes, tough defence and packed stadiums. Iowa, while a daunting foe in a different way, has none of these items that has been recent Husky kryptonite. With less physicality and more room to maneuver, both freshmen guards will be back.

I was also thrilled to see how well Nika and Aaliyah have played so far. As much as I like them, they have often disappeared in big games, but not in '24.

What Iowa will bring is a track meet and confidence. They play basically with the old Loyola Marymount strategy or if you like the James Harden Houston, or Trae Young Atlanta game.

You get matador defense combined with them shooting early in the shot clock to get as many possessions and shots as possible. Their belief is that with lots of 3s and a higher shooting %, they will simply outscore you.

LSU scored 60 points combined in q1 and q4 and won the rebounding battle by about 20 - and still lost???

This Iowa team does play better than last year. CC now a senior, more balanced scoring than previous teams and more experience with athletic opponents in big games. Last year they slew Goliath and this year they have gone through a gauntlet of WVU, UCLA, and LSU - all difficult to play against. They will have no fear.

UConn also likes to play fast, but also with some defense. I'm very intrigued if this game ends up in the 80s, 90s or 100s.

I'm guessing the UConn defense comes through and the Huskies win 84-78.

If Iowa does score 90+, they probably win.

 

[Rowdy831]

Watched LSU vs Iowa, the key for us to win the match is to switch everything with Paige/Nika/Ash/KK on Caitlin for she is the straw that stirs the drink. Even the announcers said on the TV that why it took so long for LSU to switch on Caitlin when it's too late. You cannot go under screen.

LSU didn't play a good defender on CC on it showed. I think Nika plays a lot better defense than any single player she has seen this year and she has good size too. The risk to me is letting the others get on track and Iowa hitting a bunch of three pointers.

 

[Rowdy831]

An argument could be made for KK and Shade as equals to what Iowa has in that spot but I don't think the difference makers are in this comparison as much as who guards the others superstar. Nika is a much better defender than anyone LSU has and will contain CC as much as she can be contained. On the other hand I don't think Iowa has anyone that can contain Paige and if they play a zone Paige will have to make 15 foot shots and she just won't miss too many of those.

In the end I just think Iowa and UConn are mirror images of each other on size and to beat UConn you MUST have the height advantage. I don't see this game being a nail biter at all unless fouls become an issue with key players.

 

[Bone Dog]

If Iowa does score 90+, they probably win.

This sounds right, though I might put it the opposite way: Iowa will have to score at least 90 to win. That means 40+ from Caitlin and another 50 from the rest of the team.

 

[MSGRET]

Whoever the moderator was that edited my post and changed Aaliyah's height from 5'3" to 6'3"....THANK YOU!

Always proof read at least twice before posting, then once it's poster reread it. That's what I always do with Prognosticator's Predictions. By the way don't forget to post your prediction to the Prognosticator's thread.