Analysis and Comments - Game 25 - UConn vs South Carolina

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Hmmm...Let's see, one of the things I wanted to see in this game was that UConn was preparing itself to go down to Columbia, South Carolina, and take on the number one-ranked team in the country. I don't think that this game did that unless you acknowledge that Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball now. Ashlynn Shade hit a career-high 5 threes and "Q" seems to have found her stroke.

I can't say for sure but, it appears to me that Paige may be showing some signs of the beating she has been taking in just about every game she plays. Her shot was not there in the first half and it was good to see her get back on track for the second half. I know that Paige is impacting the game in other ways, with her defense and her leadership but, I don't think we are seeing the best Paige yet. I don't think we can afford to have KK have an 'ofer' down in Columbia. Finally, Ice Brady needs to improve her rebounding, and her ability to go up strong in the paint and she needs to move towards the ball and make sure she catches the ball and keeps it away from the opposing team...oh, did I mention that she needs to stop making senseless fouls. While I don't think Ice is ready for the big time...let's face it we are out of time. We are going to need her on Sunday. She doesn't have to score double figures (though that would be nice)...we just need her to play tough defense, don't foul, and don't miss bunnies in the paint.

I expect our bench to get much shorter in this game unless our players get into foul trouble and Geno has no option but to go three and four deep into the bench. I think that Geno will give Ice and Q minutes to try and rest his starters who are sure to be tired. I pray that with the intensity that UConn will face in South Carolina, we do not have any additional injuries. These out-of-conference games played late in the season always worry me.

Now onto South Carolina...UConn got lucky with the fact that Dawn had committed to Kamilla Cardoso that she would be allowed to go play with her national team and try to help them qualify for the Olympics. It would have been easy for Coach Staley to tell her hey we have UConn coming to town and we need you to play in this game, of course, it is always a little easier when your team is the only undefeated team in women's college basketball. Regardless, Dawn kept her word to Kamilla and as a result, UConn has certainly dodged the proverbial bullet. But, that being said what does it mean that South Carolina will be playing us without their best player? The answer is, "Not very much". South Carolina is very deep and losing Cardoso's 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds while they have Ashlyn Watkins with 9.0 points and 7.3 rebounds, Kloe Kitts with 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds coming off the bench. Yes, Dawn's frontcourt has gotten a little thinner but it still is quite formidable. Losing their best player for 2 games needs to be put into context. When UConn goes down to South Carolina on Sunday they will be doing so having lost Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Ayanna Patterson, and Jana El-Alfy.

At the end of the day, all anyone can do is play the game with who you have. This will not be an easy road game with such a deep, quality team like South Carolina. It will be a daunting task for UConn to keep it respectable. If UConn manages to win this game it will be because of a strong team effort by the starters, heroics from the stars (Paige and Aaliyah), and solid contributions from Ice and Q. Conventional wisdom says UConn will need to bring their "A" game and South Carolina will need to have an off game.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

South Carolina will bring 26.5 points and 11 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring in 11 points and 6.9 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played on the Gamecocks home court. It will be a hostile environment. SC is deeper than UConn and South Carolina's swagger will be evident when they take the court. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

COACHING

Dawn is an excellent coach, her play on the court both in college and the WNBA as well as her Olympic experience as a player and a coach. Additionally, having won a national championship and her recruiting over recent years makes her a formidable challenge for Geno and his staff. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE (my head keeps saying South Carolina by 4-5 points but my heart won't allow me to prognosticate a UConn loss...therefore, I am going with UConn pulling off the upset of the season by 3 points...I haven't been able to pick the MOV yet this season...so, I wouldn't be surprised if I miss it again).

UConn - 74
South Carolina - 71

MOV - 3

 

[Bone Dog]

The only UConn advantage I can see is Aaliyah vs Watkins. And that one may be close. All the rest go SC’s way. Maybe Paige outplays Kitts and Hall for awhile. But the exhaustion factor will weigh heavily against her. Can Nika run with Raven? And who will guard Fulwiley when she subs in? There’s just too many guns on SC.

If we can keep the margin near -10 I will be impressed.

 

[LwrcasefaN]

Slow the pace of the game down until the last quarter. Play zone.

 

[Topsail]

SC is #1 for a reason
SC is playing at home
SC has a huge advantage on the OBDs ( They had 25 OBds last year)
Sc is a better 3 pt shooting team
SC has a long bench
We will have fatigue in the 4th q
AE and Paige need monster games additionally we need to stay out of foul trouble to keep this close
We need a miracle to pull this upset off, here s hoping for one

 

[SLY63]

The rebounding advantage, quick guards and depth (foul trouble) are what concern me the most, which have all hurt us against mediocre teams. My head says SC by a 12-16. point margin

 

[HuskyinWRNY]

would love a win or even a close loss, but my gut says we may get pasted.

 

[Rowdy831]

Geno has made the decision to play four guards meaning Paige is always playing against a taller, stronger player and she is looking a little worn down. If Geno comes out with KK or Shade in the starting line up instead of going with a taller line up then UConn will get beat by a margin that will be humiliating. At some point he has to take some of the burden off Paige and make someone else carry some of the water.

When you look at other teams with one superstar and a band of role players the coach doesn't throw the superstar under the bus because the superstar can handle it. They make sure the heavy lifting is done by someone that isn't vital to the success of the program. UConn could literally start any player in the 5th slot and not have a record any worse than they have now and whoever that person is must allow Paige to be a guard on offense and defense.

 

[boontonbomber]

Don't think I've seen UConn in a situation where 4 of the 7 players they put on the floor are first year players. The atmosphere for the game Sunday: TV coverage, huge home crowd, playing the #1 team, is about as intimidating as it can be. Will be no surprise if they struggle. Paige and Aaliyah must play well, but SC will certainly focus on them. Difficult to be optimistic, but pre-game thoughts don't mean much, and why the games are played.

 

[Ozimoto]

All that can be hoped for is that the team (coaches and players) give their best effort that they can bring to the game. That's all that can be asked of them. After that the chips fall where they may.

 

[Artifact]

I know that possibly, I'm wrong, but seems as if, we are always end up playing on the S.C. home court ?

 

[visitingcock]

To the OP

 

[Aluminny69]

 

[RadfordRam]

COMMENTS

Hmmm...Let's see, one of the things I wanted to see in this game was that UConn was preparing itself to go down to Columbia, South Carolina, and take on the number one-ranked team in the country. I don't think that this game did that unless you acknowledge that Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball now. Ashlynn Shade hit a career-high 5 threes and "Q" seems to have found her stroke.

I can't say for sure but, it appears to me that Paige may be showing some signs of the beating she has been taking in just about every game she plays. Her shot was not there in the first half and it was good to see her get back on track for the second half. I know that Paige is impacting the game in other ways, with her defense and her leadership but, I don't think we are seeing the best Paige yet. I don't think we can afford to have KK have an 'ofer' down in Columbia. Finally, Ice Brady needs to improve her rebounding, and her ability to go up strong in the paint and she needs to move towards the ball and make sure she catches the ball and keeps it away from the opposing team...oh, did I mention that she needs to stop making senseless fouls. While I don't think Ice is ready for the big time...let's face it we are out of time. We are going to need her on Sunday. She doesn't have to score double figures (though that would be nice)...we just need her to play tough defense, don't foul, and don't miss bunnies in the paint.

I expect our bench to get much shorter in this game unless our players get into foul trouble and Geno has no option but to go three and four deep into the bench. I think that Geno will give Ice and Q minutes to try and rest his starters who are sure to be tired. I pray that with the intensity that UConn will face in South Carolina, we do not have any additional injuries. These out-of-conference games played late in the season always worry me.

Now onto South Carolina...UConn got lucky with the fact that Dawn had committed to Kamilla Cardoso that she would be allowed to go play with her national team and try to help them qualify for the Olympics. It would have been easy for Coach Staley to tell her hey we have UConn coming to town and we need you to play in this game, of course, it is always a little easier when your team is the only undefeated team in women's college basketball. Regardless, Dawn kept her word to Kamilla and as a result, UConn has certainly dodged the proverbial bullet. But, that being said what does it mean that South Carolina will be playing us without their best player? The answer is, "Not very much". South Carolina is very deep and losing Cardoso's 13.8 points and 9.8 rebounds while they have Ashlyn Watkins with 9.0 points and 7.3 rebounds, Kloe Kitts with 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds coming off the bench. Yes, Dawn's frontcourt has gotten a little thinner but it still is quite formidable. Losing their best player for 2 games needs to be put into context. When UConn goes down to South Carolina on Sunday they will be doing so having lost Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Ayanna Patterson, and Jana El-Alfy.

At the end of the day, all anyone can do is play the game with who you have. This will not be an easy road game with such a deep, quality team like South Carolina. It will be a daunting task for UConn to keep it respectable. If UConn manages to win this game it will be because of a strong team effort by the starters, heroics from the stars (Paige and Aaliyah), and solid contributions from Ice and Q. Conventional wisdom says UConn will need to bring their "A" game and South Carolina will need to have an off game.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Ashlyn Watkins, 6'3" - Ashlyn will be called upon to replace Kamilla Cardoso...she will more than likely do a decent job but will probably end up being "Cardoso Light". Ashlyn averages 9.0 points and 7..3 rebounds. Ashlyn has good size but she is 6'3" not 6'7" and will not be as imposing in the paint. Ashlyn is, however, a good defensive player averaging a team-high 2.7 blocks per game. As I said in the comments section of this analysis Aaliyah Edwards is playing her best basketball. I would expect Dawn to play much more man-to-man defense than what we have seen with teams like Seton Hall who packs the middle and challenges UConn to make 3-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.7 points per game and 8.8 rebounds. I think Ashlyn will find defending Aaliyah one-on-one to be extremely challenging. If Aaliyah can stay out of foul trouble I believe Aaliyah will come out on top in this match-up. If Ashlyn should get in foul trouble look for Sonia Faegin 6'3" Jr. to come into the game. Sonia isn't as productive in the post as Ashlyn is. Sonia averages 6.5 points and 3.2 rebounds per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Cloe Kitts, 6'2" - Cloe has a height advantage over Paige however, I think that Paige without having to worry about double and triple teams will be a very difficult assignment for Cloe to have to do on her own. I would look for Dawn to bring help should Paige prove to be a difficult one-on-one assignment. Cloe is a solid player averaging 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds. With her height advantage, Cloe could be a tough defensive assignment for Paige. And a big concern for UConn is that Paige does not get into foul trouble. To put it simply there is just no replacement should we lose Paige to fouls. Paige averages 20 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 2.3 steals, 1.1 blocks, and 2.0 three-pointers are just irreplaceable with this current team. If Paige stays on the court she will dominate at this position.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Raven Johnson, 5'9" - Raven is South Carolina's main facilitator. Raven averages 9.3 points, 4.2 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 2.2 steals per game. This match-up is crucial to the game. Nika needs to be able to stay with Raven and try to keep the ball out of her hands while staying out of foul trouble. This is a tall order as Raven is an excellent points guard who rarely fouls and only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. Nika averages 7.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 6.3 assists, and 1.3 steals per game. The problem with Nika is that on occasion she makes silly fouls averaging 2.5 fouls per game. UConn will need Nika to stay on the floor. Nika will also need to make shots if left open. This match-up should be exciting.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Bree Hall 6'0" - Ashlynn gives up two inches to Bree. Bree, being a junior is also a bit more experienced than Ashlynn. However, Ashlynn has been playing consistently and doesn't play like a freshman. Bree averages 10 points, 2.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. Ashlynn, on the other hand, averages 11.2 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and makes 1.7 three-pointers per game. It is amazing how close these players' statistics are. Statistically, they appear to be the same player with Ashlynn having a slight edge in points per game.
ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Te-Hina Paopao, 5'9" - Te-Hina being a senior gives her an advantage over KK in experience. Te-Hina is the second half of a back-court tandem that has paid big dividends for Dawn. She is a prolific 3-point shooter averaging 2.4 threes per game. Te-Hina averages 11.8 points, 2.8 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1 steal per game. Te-Hina only turns the ball over 1.6 times per game. KK averages 9.4 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.1 assists, 2.2 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. KK turns the ball over 1.8 times per game. Statistically, Te-Hina has the advantage in assists, points, and three-pointers per game while KK has the advantage in steals per game. Given that Te-Hina is a senior and her statistical advantages...
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

BENCH

South Carolina will bring 26.5 points and 11 rebounds off the bench while UConn will bring in 11 points and 6.9 rebounds.
ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

INTANGIBLES

This game will be played on the Gamecocks home court. It will be a hostile environment. SC is deeper than UConn and South Carolina's swagger will be evident when they take the court. ADVANTAGE - SOUTH CAROLINA

COACHING

Dawn is an excellent coach, her play on the court both in college and the WNBA as well as her Olympic experience as a player and a coach. Additionally, having won a national championship and her recruiting over recent years makes her a formidable challenge for Geno and his staff. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

SCORE (my head keeps saying South Carolina by 4-5 points but my heart won't allow me to prognosticate a UConn loss...therefore, I am going with UConn pulling off the upset of the season by 3 points...I haven't been able to pick the MOV yet this season...so, I wouldn't be surprised if I miss it again).

UConn - 74
South Carolina - 71

MOV - 3

Disagree with alot your advantages, but we will see.

 

[Zonepress]

UConn’s starting 5 can compete with anyone
The fall off when they go to the bench
Is very significant and any starter on the bench
With foul trouble creates what happened
Against Notre Damr
Looking forward to the game

 

[visitingcock]

I know that possibly, I'm wrong, but seems as if, we are always end up playing on the S.C. home court ?

reverse back at’cha. The game has not been played in Columbia since 2000. We have played twice on your court and twice at neutral sites since then.

 

[Skeets]

Slow the pace of the game down until the last quarter. Play zone.

UConn is borderline awful when they play a zone defense, which is why they don't use it unless they have to. Just my opinion...

 

[visitingcock]

UConn is borderline awful when they play a zone defense, which is why they don't use it unless they have to. Just my opinion...

Also, I’m not sure of the wisdom of zone vs the best 3 point shooting team in the country ( by percentage)

 

[Skeets]

I prognosticate UConn wins, Taylor Swift loses. (Oh, boo hoo)

 

[Ninjaneer]

reverse back at’cha. The game has not been played in Columbia since 2000. We have played twice on your court and twice at neutral sites since then.

2020

 

[LwrcasefaN]

UConn is borderline awful when they play a zone defense, which is why they don't use it unless they have to. Just my opinion...

They don't have to play all zone, but you have to pick your poison. They also aren't stellar at getting through picks and defending the pick and roll. KK gets a lot of fouls trying to get through picks. And Hidalgo demonstrated their inability to effectively defend pick and rolls. Not to mention athletically, we're overmatched. So...just stop penetration. Reserve energy and fouls and just keep them in front of you. SC shoots 41%, but they only make 6 or 7 a game. In any case, it will be interesting to see UCONN's game strategy. If they can control the pace, then they can win.

 

[Urshurak]

Your analysis of games/teams is usually really good. Not looking like you're being very impartial right now. Some rosy glasses and some head in the sand....

4 or 5 point loss? Come on......

 

[cferraro04]

The only UConn advantage I can see is Aaliyah vs Watkins. And that one may be close. All the rest go SC’s way. Maybe Paige outplays Kitts and Hall for awhile. But the exhaustion factor will weigh heavily against her. Can Nika run with Raven? And who will guard Fulwiley when she subs in? There’s just too many guns on SC.

If we can keep the margin near -10 I will be impressed.

I disagree that the only advantage is Aaliyah. I don't think it is a maybe that Paige outplays Kitts. I think Kitts is a great player, don't get me wrong...I could only hope that she played for UConn. But, she has been inconsistent albeit she is only averaging 18 minutes per game due to blow-outs but in the games where she gets extended minutes she excels in rebounds but rarely scores more than 11 points per game. She is anemic in assists, steals, and blocks and her three-point shot is non-existent.

Paige knows that for UConn to be respectable she is going to have to take on a bigger offensive role in this game (something she is quite capable of doing). I stand by the Advantage given to Paige.

Since those were the only two advantages I gave to UConn I stand by the analysis of the advantage categories. I may have gone out on a limb with given Shade an even advantage against Bree. That conclusion was completely based on statistics and given Hall's height and experience advantage it may prove to be an incorrect advantage prediction.

Likewise, my even advantage prediction about Nika and Raven could play out to be a slight advantage to Raven if she has a monster game and Nika gets into foul trouble (which is always a concern). And, I do think that Nika can run with Raven, to think otherwise would be like saying that Nika doesn't belong on the same floor with Raven...I don't think that is true. I believe that if Nika can prove to be the in-your-face defender that she appears to be and if she can stay out of foul trouble I think the assessment holds.

About South Carolina having too many guns it must be noted that only five of them can be on the court at the same time.. Therefore, when Fulwiley comes in then clearly someone must go out. UConn's starters assuming they don't foul out will play significant minutes and it more than likely will be a starter who will match up with Fulwiley. All the starters will essentially be able to match up with Milaysia.

I think the advantage section of the analysis can play out exactly. Do I think that in some match-ups it might fall short? Yes! Do I think that in some match-ups there is a chance for the UConn player to play better than assessed? Yes.

Where I believe I took the most liberty was in the projected winner and score. As I said in the analysis my head tells me one thing (South Carolina wins) but, my heart is with my Huskies and as hard as it will be, I am hoping they find a way to get a win. My true wish would have been for South Carolina to have Kamilla Cardoso playing in the game and for the Huskies to have Azzi Fudd, Caroline Ducharme, Aubrey Griffin, Jana El-Alfy and Ayanna Patterson in uniform and available...that is the analysis I would have preferred to be making.

 

[Centerstream]

I certainly hope that the "under the bright lights" game against the Golden Domers wasn't a foreboding of the "under the bright lights" SoCar game, but...
Another good analysis @cferraro04 .

 

[HuskieDawg]

SC should win the game and probably wouldn't surprise everyone if it was by 10 or more points. That doesn't mean they will. That why "you play the game".

Our starting 5 is gonna log a ton of minutes, so am curious to see how they hold up. I wonder if some of the poor shooting against Seton Hall was due to fatigue.

Regardless of the games outcome it doest change the teams goals of winning the BE regular season, hopefully winning the BE tourney and making a good run in the NCAA tourney.

I am anxious to see how the freshman respond, can Nika come up big after her letdown in the ND game, can Paige have a Caitlan Clark-eque game and just will her team forward, can AE continue her dominant play, can Geno make adjustments on the fly that the team can execute. So many things to watch for.

Should be exciting.

 

[Blacketh’D]

Coaching advantage EVEN??? I didn’t even know that was possible. Shocked I tell you.