Analysis and Comments - Game 18 - UConn vs Seton Hall

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Seton Hall is 11-6 overall. The following chart tells the tale of the tape...

Category..........................................................UConn......................Seton Hall
Points per Game................................................84.2..............................65.7
Opp. Pts. / Game...............................................59.2..............................53.6
FG Percentage................................................... 51.5.............................42.9
Opp FG %...........................................................36.3.............................37.9
3 point %.............................................................37.8.............................32.1
3-pointers / Game................................................7.5................................5.5
FT Percentage......................................................73.2.............................72.9
Rebounds per Game............................................37.7.............................34.8
Opp. RBs / Game.................................................33.3.............................32.8
Asst / Game..........................................................20.2............................13.6
Asst / FG Made.....................................................20.2 / 32.4..................13.6 / 24.7
Turnovers / Game..................................................13.1............................14.4
Opp. TOs / Game..................................................17.8............................19.4
Points off Turnovers...............................................22.8............................18.9
Steals / Game........................................................10.5.............................10.1
Steals by Opp.........................................................5.5................................5.9
Blocks /Game ........................................................3.5................................2.5
Opp. Blocks / Game...............................................1.8................................3.9

I think that Seton Hall has the potential to be better than their record shows. They have an overabundance of upperclassmen leadership. They have 7 that's right seven graduate students on their roster. Joining the 7 graduate students are 2 seniors, 2 sophomores, and 3 freshmen. Now I have to believe that after that when the COVID year expires this anomaly will not occur. Seton Hall's starting lineup has 3 graduate students, 1 senior, and 1 sophomore. They are not very big with their starters being: 6'1", 6'1", 6'0", 5'9", and 5'8". They do have some height on the bench with I'yanna Lops at 6'3" (12 minutes) and 6'2" MaKennah White (14.1 minutes). Micah Gray is their best 3-point shooter with 2.58 per game but they do have other capable 3-point shooters as well in Savannah Catalona and Azana Baines. The reason teams need to be mindful of Seton Hall is because their defensive stats are credible. They force 19.4 turnovers per game, hold their opponents to 53.6 points per game, get 10.1 steals per game and score 18.9 points off turnovers.

With all that being said...Aaliyah should have a great game in the post. Ice Brady should get some significant minutes in this game and hopefully, she will be able to build on her last game of 17 points and 3 rebounds. Amari will see some action as well and I am rooting for the kid...she has such a good personality, she is talented and I would love to see her get the fire in the belly. I don't think Seton Hall will be able to contain UConn's potent offense...too many weapons from too many positions. I expect that Seton Hall has not faced anybody like UConn this season. UConn's smothering defense is hard to understand if you haven't experienced it. Seton Hall is about to face one of the best defenses in the country. I don't expect UConn to have a lot of problems with Seton Hall even though they are on the road...I think they will get an easy victory with everyone getting into the act and no one will go hungry.

Things I would like to see: 1. Qadence having a good game...letting the game come to her and playing with a little less anxiety. 2. Ice Brady building on her last game and showing some consistency. 3. Good three-point shooting with Nika building on her newly found three-point shooting. 4. Another great defensive game. 5. Aaliyah a nice double-double.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs A'Jah Davis 6'1" - A'Jah Davis only plays 19.7 minutes per game so look for her to split time with either MaKennah White 6'2" and/or I'yanna Lops 6'3". Either way, Aaliyah should dominate in this matchup as combined the three post players for Seton Hall average 12.3 points and 11.3 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs Azana Baines 6'1" - Azana is Seton Hall's most productive player with 15.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. I think Paige's defense will cause Azana to have difficulty finding her rhythm. Meanwhile, Azana will have an extremely difficult time trying to contain Paige who is arguably one of the top 3 players in women's college basketball. I know I know...most people here will argue that Paige is the best...and she very well might be but what does it matter Azana is going to go crazy chasing Paige around. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" vs Amari Wright 5'9" - Amari plays 32.2 minutes per game for Seton Hall. She is Seton Hall's best facilitator she drops 6.2 dimes per game. Nika is a disrupter on defense...Amari may find it harder to get the ball to her scorers with Nika chasing her around. She isn't much of a scoring threat averaging 5.4 points per game. However, Amari is a master thief...she manages to get 2.5 steals per game. Nika however is now closing in 6 assists per game as she is currently averaging 5.9 assists per game. Her scoring has picked up of late as I believe she realizes that she has to do her part in picking up the slack left by Aubrey Griffin's season-ending injury. Nika is currently averaging 7.1 points per game and is emerging as a dependable 3-point shooter. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5"10 vs Kay Satterfield 6'0" - Kay has emerged as a starter in the last 6 games. However, Seton Hall may go with Savannah Catalon who exploded for 17 points on 5/8 from three-point. Savanah is only a freshman and the consistency just hasn't been there yet. Kay averages 8.2 points and 2.9 rebounds per game. With that being said our rookie is having a heck of a year. She is averaging 11.1 points and 2.2 rebounds per game. She is also knocking down 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold 5'9" vs Micah Gray 5'8" - Micah is Seton Hall's stat stuffer. She is second on the team in scoring with `3.7 points per game, however, she also contributes 2.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists 1.1 steals, and knocks down 2.58 three-pointers per game. She is a dynamo... And, as luck would have it so is KK Arnold who is doing her best job at stuffing the stats as well. She averages 9.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.6 steals and is our most annoying defender. I think KK will make it very difficult for Micah to do what she usually likes to do. Additionally, Micah is not going to believe how fast KK is...of course, seeing is believing but the problem is by the time you see it...it is too late she is by you and scoring a drive to the basket.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN


BENCH

Seton Hall will bring 21.6 points and 12.8 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.5 points and 7 rebounds off the bench...
ADVANTAGE - SETON HALL


INTANGIBLES

Seton Hall has the home court which is worth about 5 points but it won't be enough to overcome UConn's talent and athleticism.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN


COACHING

ADVANTAGE - UCONN


SCORE

UCONN - 87
SETON HALL - 55

MOV - 32

 

[Bone Dog]

Nice analys. Thanks again @cferraro04. I hadn’t realized how scrappy SH is on defense. That could make for an interesting test. On the offensive side, I expect SH will be utterly thwarted by UConn’s defense. Nika and KK will disrupt their ability to distribute the ball, and Aaliyah and Ice will dominate in the post on defense and offense.

I suspect Paige will get more than one steal and score more or less at will, as she did against SJU. And Aaliyah will notch another double-double. Ash KK and Nika will each score in double figures. I wonder if Q and Ice will too. Could Ice also get a double-double? Nika too?

I expect another blowout, maybe by a somewhat wider margin than you have here. Something on the order of 95-48

 

[Zarathustra]

A nice comparison / summary. It could make me change my Prognostication... but, when
you have a "pat" hand, why bother? That's a joke, son!!

 

[cferraro04]

Getting bored waiting...but, I did get to watch the #4 Men's team spank Georgetown...

 

[BBallF]

By the eye test, they are a physical team underneath. They will have trouble with the press to be sure and have a very good player in Azana Baines. We just have to get out early and get deflections and steals and put the game away. It can be a very important game for both Q 'n Ice because of the improvement and confidence it can engender.

 

[cferraro04]

Getting bored waiting...but, I did get to watch the #4 Men's team spank Georgetown...

Oops...update...as of today...the UConn men are now rated #1

 

[martyn]

COMMENTS

Seton Hall is 11-6 overall. The following chart tells the tale of the tape...

Category..........................................................UConn......................Seton Hall
Points per Game................................................84.2..............................65.7
Opp. Pts. / Game...............................................59.2..............................53.6
FG Percentage................................................... 51.5.............................42.9
Opp FG %...........................................................36.3.............................37.9
3 point %.............................................................37.8.............................32.1
3-pointers / Game................................................7.5................................5.5
FT Percentage......................................................73.2.............................72.9
Rebounds per Game............................................37.7.............................34.8
Opp. RBs / Game.................................................33.3.............................32.8
Asst / Game..........................................................20.2............................13.6
Asst / FG Made.....................................................20.2 / 32.4..................13.6 / 24.7
Turnovers / Game..................................................13.1............................14.4
Opp. TOs / Game..................................................17.8............................19.4
Points off Turnovers...............................................22.8............................18.9
Steals / Game........................................................10.5.............................10.1
Steals by Opp.........................................................5.5................................5.9
Blocks /Game ........................................................3.5................................2.5
Opp. Blocks / Game...............................................1.8................................3.9

I think that Seton Hall has the potential to be better than their record shows. They have an overabundance of upperclassmen leadership. They have 7 that's right seven graduate students on their roster. Joining the 7 graduate students are 2 seniors, 2 sophomores, and 3 freshmen. Now I have to believe that after that when the COVID year expires this anomaly will not occur. Seton Hall's starting lineup has 3 graduate students, 1 senior, and 1 sophomore. They are not very big with their starters being: 6'1", 6'1", 6'0", 5'9", and 5'8". They do have some height on the bench with I'yanna Lops at 6'3" (12 minutes) and 6'2" MaKennah White (14.1 minutes). Micah Gray is their best 3-point shooter with 2.58 per game but they do have other capable 3-point shooters as well in Savannah Catalona and Azana Baines. The reason teams need to be mindful of Seton Hall is because their defensive stats are credible. They force 19.4 turnovers per game, hold their opponents to 53.6 points per game, get 10.1 steals per game and score 18.9 points off turnovers.

With all that being said...Aaliyah should have a great game in the post. Ice Brady should get some significant minutes in this game and hopefully, she will be able to build on her last game of 17 points and 3 rebounds. Amari will see some action as well and I am rooting for the kid...she has such a good personality, she is talented and I would love to see her get the fire in the belly. I don't think Seton Hall will be able to contain UConn's potent offense...too many weapons from too many positions. I expect that Seton Hall has not faced anybody like UConn this season. UConn's smothering defense is hard to understand if you haven't experienced it. Seton Hall is about to face one of the best defenses in the country. I don't expect UConn to have a lot of problems with Seton Hall even though they are on the road...I think they will get an easy victory with everyone getting into the act and no one will go hungry.

Things I would like to see: 1. Qadence having a good game...letting the game come to her and playing with a little less anxiety. 2. Ice Brady building on her last game and showing some consistency. 3. Good three-point shooting with Nika building on her newly found three-point shooting. 4. Another great defensive game. 5. Aaliyah a nice double-double.

ANALYSIS

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs A'Jah Davis 6'1" - A'Jah Davis only plays 19.7 minutes per game so look for her to split time with either MaKennah White 6'2" and/or I'yanna Lops 6'3". Either way, Aaliyah should dominate in this matchup as combined the three post players for Seton Hall average 12.3 points and 11.3 rebounds. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs Azana Baines 6'1" - Azana is Seton Hall's most productive player with 15.4 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. I think Paige's defense will cause Azana to have difficulty finding her rhythm. Meanwhile, Azana will have an extremely difficult time trying to contain Paige who is arguably one of the top 3 players in women's college basketball. I know I know...most people here will argue that Paige is the best...and she very well might be but what does it matter Azana is going to go crazy chasing Paige around. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" vs Amari Wright 5'9" - Amari plays 32.2 minutes per game for Seton Hall. She is Seton Hall's best facilitator she drops 6.2 dimes per game. Nika is a disrupter on defense...Amari may find it harder to get the ball to her scorers with Nika chasing her around. She isn't much of a scoring threat averaging 5.4 points per game. However, Amari is a master thief...she manages to get 2.5 steals per game. Nika however is now closing in 6 assists per game as she is currently averaging 5.9 assists per game. Her scoring has picked up of late as I believe she realizes that she has to do her part in picking up the slack left by Aubrey Griffin's season-ending injury. Nika is currently averaging 7.1 points per game and is emerging as a dependable 3-point shooter. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5"10 vs Kay Satterfield 6'0" - Kay has emerged as a starter in the last 6 games. However, Seton Hall may go with Savannah Catalon who exploded for 17 points on 5/8 from three-point. Savanah is only a freshman and the consistency just hasn't been there yet. Kay averages 8.2 points and 2.9 rebounds per game. With that being said our rookie is having a heck of a year. She is averaging 11.1 points and 2.2 rebounds per game. She is also knocking down 1.7 three-pointers per game. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

KK Arnold 5'9" vs Micah Gray 5'8" - Micah is Seton Hall's stat stuffer. She is second on the team in scoring with `3.7 points per game, however, she also contributes 2.6 rebounds, 1.3 assists 1.1 steals, and knocks down 2.58 three-pointers per game. She is a dynamo... And, as luck would have it so is KK Arnold who is doing her best job at stuffing the stats as well. She averages 9.7 points, 2.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 2.6 steals and is our most annoying defender. I think KK will make it very difficult for Micah to do what she usually likes to do. Additionally, Micah is not going to believe how fast KK is...of course, seeing is believing but the problem is by the time you see it...it is too late she is by you and scoring a drive to the basket.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN


BENCH

Seton Hall will bring 21.6 points and 12.8 rebounds off the bench. UConn will bring 11.5 points and 7 rebounds off the bench...
ADVANTAGE - SETON HALL


INTANGIBLES

Seton Hall has the home court which is worth about 5 points but it won't be enough to overcome UConn's talent and athleticism.
ADVANTAGE - UCONN


COACHING

ADVANTAGE - UCONN


SCORE

UCONN - 87
SETON HALL - 55

MOV - 32

The problem with your matchup comparison is the difference in the competition. UConn has played far better teams than Seton Hall has played.

 

[my2cents]

These comparisons are good, but miss one key component. The numbers are static, but there is no mention of speed. When I watch UCONN play vs. everyone else, our speed is so much faster than our competitors.
We just run everyone into the ground.

 

[Next 12]

Seton Hall will present no problem. Uconn has with these 8 players, eliminated whatever our shortcomings were, which all the naysayers were glad to bring out. Geno, as usual has solved Uconn's problem . High scoring savage attacks on the basket and devastating pressure defense means wins. Uconn is doing the best it knows how with the talent they have and I see nothing but wins in their future.Any team that does not fear Uconn is in for a BIG SURPRISE. GO FRESHMEN!!!! GO HUSKIES!!!!

 

[CL82]

For those who are going, enjoy the game! I love Walsh gymnasium. You're right on the action. I couldn't get tickets this go round so I'll be watching from home.

 

[cferraro04]

The problem with your matchup comparison is the difference in the competition. UConn has played far better teams than Seton Hall has played.

So, let me see if I understand this. Because UConn has played much tougher competition and because UConn has more talented and gifted players I had UConn winning all categories except one which is Seton Hall's deeper bench and this means that there is a "problem with the matchup comparisons?"

 

[martyn]

So, let me see if I understand this. Because UConn has played much tougher competition and because UConn has more talented and gifted players I had UConn winning all categories except one which is Seton Hall's deeper bench and this means that there is a "problem with the matchup comparisons?"

Not a problem with your conclusion including probable point spread but with the relevance of those side by side numbers. Taken by themselves they fail to support that predicted point spread.

 

[martyn]

Adding to the above: For example, the comparison of UConn holding opponents to 59.2 pts per game compared to SH's 53.6 pts per game is not meaningful if UConn is playing much better teams, which it is.

 

[wbbhoops278]

Not a problem with your conclusion including probable point spread but with the relevance of those side by side numbers. Taken by themselves they fail to support that predicted point spread.

Adding to the above: For example, the comparison of UConn holding opponents to 59.2 pts per game compared to SH's 53.6 pts per game is not meaningful if UConn is playing much better teams, which it is.

Thank you Captain Obvious. He's including the statistics, which is the same for every game. I can't even believe that you called it "a problem with the matchup comparison" because in this case, the Opp PPG is actually more favorable for Seton Hall and other stats might be close. Have you said that for every other analysis up until now? Teams play different schedules, so we all are aware of how this impacts the statistics. It's literally the same for each game. If you want to add SoS or something else, ask him to do that, but don't act like there is anything wrong with what was put together just because you wanted something mentioned that wasn't. @cferraro04 does a great job with these and I appreciate that he takes the time to thoughtfully pull this together. If you are going to complain about something someone is spending time to do, at least make it valid.

 

[martyn]

Thank you Captain Obvious. He's including the statistics, which is the same for every game. I can't even believe that you called it "a problem with the matchup comparison" because in this case, the Opp PPG is actually more favorable for Seton Hall and other stats might be close. Have you said that for every other analysis up until now? Teams play different schedules, so we all are aware of how this impacts the statistics. It's literally the same for each game. If you want to add SoS or something else, ask him to do that, but don't act like there is anything wrong with what was put together just because you wanted something mentioned that wasn't. @cferraro04 does a great job with these and I appreciate that he takes the time to thoughtfully pull this together. If you are going to complain about something someone is spending time to do, at least make it valid.

An observation, not a complaint. Agree it was obvious but the post seemed to suggest the statistical analysis meant something besides itself. His reply suggested the same. And of course, Private Obvious, the bare numbers will appear more favorable to the team playing lesser competition than they would if playing to Uconn's level of competition.

 

[YKCornelius]

An observation, not a complaint. Agree it was obvious but the post seemed to suggest the statistical analysis meant something besides itself. His reply suggested the same. And of course, Private Obvious, the bare numbers will appear more favorable to the team playing lesser competition than they would if playing to Uconn's level of competition.

Martyn, for goodness sakes, read the room! All you needed to do was lead-in with a comment more along the lines of "In addition to, and supporting your analysis, is the factor of team/individual speed....", rather than "The problem with your match-up comparison is...."

Your points on speed and schedule are valid. Your presentation delivery was wonky. Take a mea culpa.

 

[martyn]

Martyn, for goodness sakes, read the room! All you needed to do was lead-in with a comment more along the lines of "In addition to, and supporting your analysis, is the factor of team/individual speed....", rather than "The problem with your match-up comparison is...."

Your points on speed and schedule are valid. Your presentation delivery was wonky. Take a mea culpa.

Read the room? I read and replied to the post, which calls for the reverse of "...and supporting your analysis" in that the bare team to team comparison numbers provided a basis for a misleading analysis, an analysis that in the end wasn't made when its author predicted a score
the comparisons did not support. Didn't realize such a comparison thread is a regular feature here, and might have phrased things differently if I had but the point of it would be the same.

 

[cferraro04]

Read the room? I read and replied to the post, which calls for the reverse of "...and supporting your analysis" in that the bare team to team comparison numbers provided a basis for a misleading analysis, an analysis that in the end wasn't made when its author predicted a score
the comparisons did not support. Didn't realize such a comparison thread is a regular feature here, and might have phrased things differently if I had but the point of it would be the same.

Martyn: I am not looking to debate your points only trying to understand what you are trying to say. From your subsequent posts, it appears you are saying that my MOV or the stats presented don't support the analysis... partly because I did not reference or factor in the weaker competition played by Seton Hall. Of course, I beg to differ while I did make some reference to Seton Hall's weaker competitive schedule I did reference their Graduate heavy line-up and their past defensive success. I also reference UConn's offensive and defensive success and I did factor in the experience and talent of the UConn players which resulted in a clean-sweep conclusion as ADVANTAGE - UCONN with UConn winning every match-up.

If you think that the MOV of 32 is too low...I can respect that. My response to that would be that beating teams by 45 and 50 points is not normal...maybe for many of the UConn teams of the past and this team of late. It is really difficult to blow teams out night after night while giving bench players significant minutes and with the coaching staff on occasion giving the signal to take the foot off the gas. Also, I happen to think that Seton Hall can have a good defensive night and the score could be lower with a 32-point MOV if UConn is flat offensively and if Seton Hall plays well on the defensive end. The good news for both of us we will be finding out who was right in about 4 hours.

I also want to say that I appreciate your feedback I just think we all, myself included have to watch how we present our opinions after all we are kindred spirits in that we share a fandom in rooting for the Huskies.

 

[martyn]

Martyn: I am not looking to debate your points only trying to understand what you are trying to say. From your subsequent posts, it appears you are saying that my MOV or the stats presented don't support the analysis... partly because I did not reference or factor in the weaker competition played by Seton Hall. Of course, I beg to differ while I did make some reference to Seton Hall's weaker competitive schedule I did reference their Graduate heavy line-up and their past defensive success. I also reference UConn's offensive and defensive success and I did factor in the experience and talent of the UConn players which resulted in a clean-sweep conclusion as ADVANTAGE - UCONN with UConn winning every match-up.

If you think that the MOV of 32 is too low...I can respect that. My response to that would be that beating teams by 45 and 50 points is not normal...maybe for many of the UConn teams of the past and this team of late. It is really difficult to blow teams out night after night while giving bench players significant minutes and with the coaching staff on occasion giving the signal to take the foot off the gas. Also, I happen to think that Seton Hall can have a good defensive night and the score could be lower with a 32-point MOV if UConn is flat offensively and if Seton Hall plays well on the defensive end. The good news for both of us we will be finding out who was right in about 4 hours.

I also want to say that I appreciate your feedback I just think we all, myself included have to watch how we present our opinions after all we are kindred spirits in that we share a fandom in rooting for the Huskies.

If I seemed rude I didn't mean to be; I thought the reply was measured. Anyway, as I said, I think your prediction of the final score is perfectly in keeping with the records of the teams to date.

 

[Centerstream]

And if I understand what's going on with this thread, and the previous game analysis threads, opinions are stated, and I think most people know what is said about a person's opinion...

 

[Dogstar]

And if I understand what's going on with this thread, and the previous game analysis threads, opinions are stated, and I think most people know what is said about a person's opinion...

We all have one and they all stink?

 

[MSGRET]

Boy I'm happy I haven't been attacked for my write-ups In my Prognosticator's Predictions threads, feel sorry for you on this @cferraro04.

 

[Centerstream]

Boy I'm happy I haven't been attacked for my write-ups In my Prognosticator's Predictions threads, feel sorry for you on this @cferraro04.

I guess I wasn't clear in my "swerve" post about opinions.
I was not attacking @cferraro04 because of his analysis threads. I was trying to refer to posts in the thread that appeared to be attacking the analysis just because they didn't have the same conclusions.
I certainly wasn't trying to offend anyone but was trying to make a joke about the "attackers." Obviously I failed.

 

[HuskyNan]

No game threads

 

[cferraro04]

Well...it appears that my read on this game was almost spot on. Seton Hall's graduate-laden line-up and their defensive play...kept them close. It was as I feared if UConn did not have a good shooting day (Paige notwithstanding) and if Seton Hall was able to play tough defensively that the MOV would be low. Unfortunately, I pegged it at 32 when in actuality it was 24. I was also close but no cigar on the score...I had UConn at 87 they got 83...I had Seton Hall at 55 they got 59...but who the heck thought they would go 11 for 26 from 3-point and shoot the 3-ball at 42.3 percent? While they have not played the same level of competitive opponents that UConn has...they were almost at their average in turnovers forcing UConn into 18 turnovers. They also had 10 steals. I think the stats were pretty close to playing out in this one.

On the offensive end...while Paige had a monster scoring game and still pulled down 7 rebounds we can't overlook Aaliyah flirting with a double-double with 17 and 9. Muhl had a double-digit assist game with 10. There must have been something going on with Ashlynn as she only took 5 shots...and appeared to have an off-game. KK, however, kicked it into the next gear from 3-point land going 4-6. She also contributed 4 assists. Finally, it was good to Samuels come off the bench and add some energy and 5 points going 2 for 2 from the floor.