Analysis and Comments - Game 14 - UConn vs Creighton

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS and ANALYSIS

Creighton will play 8 players and will more than likely start the following players:

1. Emma Ronsiek - 33.4 minutes/game; 18.6 points, 5.7 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.2 blocks, and 1.6 threes per game
2. Lauren Jensen - 33.8 minutes/game; 17.0 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3,5 assists, 1.1 steals, and 2.0 threes per game
3. Morgan Maly - 29.8 minutes/game; 14.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.5 assists, and 2.3 threes per game
4. Molly Mogensen - 29.9 minutes/game; 7.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.0 steals, 1.6 threes per game
5. Mallory Brake - 23.1 minutes/game; 4.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.6 steals, 1.4 blocks, and .5 threes per game

Off the bench, the Bluejays will play the following players...

6. Kennedy Townsend - 15 minutes/game; 4.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, 1.7 threes per game.
7. Kiani Lockett - 16 minutes/game; 2.5 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.6 assists.
8. Jami Horan - 12.4 minutes/game; 3.0 points, 2.2 rebounds, 1.1 assists, .6 threes

Playing Creighton at Creighton is never an easy feat but, if we can get the Huskies to continue playing the kind of defense that they have been playing and if UConn's "small ball" continues to pay dividends on the fast breaks and points in the paint then I see no reason to expect anything different from what we saw in the Marquette game. With Creighton's tallest player being 6'1" this should be a nice double-digit win with both Aaliyah Edwards and Aubrey Griffin having good games.

MATCH-UPS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Emma Ronsiek, 6'1" - Emma is a solid player averaging 18.6 points and 5.7 rebounds per game...Like most of the Blue Jays starters, Emma can step out and hit the three hitting 1.6 threes per game and hitting on 42 percent of her three-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. She will have to defend Emma out to the three. However, I think Edwards will be a very tough defensive assignment for Emma. Last year Emma did not fare well against UConn, in the first game she had 12 points and 3 rebounds and was zero for three from the three-point line, in game two Emma played 31 minutes and was unable to score...she had five rebounds and five assists. Edwards on the other hand, had 23 points and 20 rebounds in game one and 12 points and 9 rebounds in game two. Game one was rather one-sided with Dorka and Edwards having a field day which had UConn winning going away by a score of 72 to 47. Game two was a low-scoring event and it was a defensive battle, UConn was short-handed, and Senechal, Dorka, and Caroline all scored in double figures in a two-point victory 62 to 60. This year we don't have Senechal, Dorka, or Caroline but we do have Bueckers, a healthy Aubrey Griffin, Shade, KK, and Samuelson. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers, 6'0" vs Morgan Maly, 6'1" - Yes, Paige will once again have to play in the forward spot...matching up with a bigger player but, it is Paige. Maly is averaging 14.7 points, 6.1 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 2.4 three-pointers per game. Last year Maly was All-Big East first-team...she is a prolific three-point shooter. In game one last year Maly played 24 minutes but only tallied 2 points and 6 rebounds...however, in game two Maly redeemed herself by getting 15 points and 8 rebounds while going 3-9 from three-point. Paige did not play against Creighton last year so this match-up is entirely new and judging by how well Paige is playing this year averaging 19.2 points, 4.1 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.0 steals, and 2.1 threes per game I will give the... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl, 5'11" vs Lauren Jensen, 5'10" - Lauren is having a great year averaging 17 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.5 assists 1.1 steals, and hitting 2 three-pointers per game. Lauren was also on the All-Big East 1st team last year. In game one against UConn last year Lauren had 11 points, 4 rebounds, and went 1-7 from three-point. In game 2 Lauren tallied 13 points, and 3 rebounds and went 3-11 from three-point land. In game one Nika had 8 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists and went 1 - 4 from three-point land. In game two Nika had 8 points, and 2 rebounds and went 1-5 from three-point land. This year Nika is averaging 6.5 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 5.1 assists and is shooting 1.2 from three-point land. While I realize that Nika is an excellent defender I am going to go with... ADVANTAGE - CREIGHTON

Ashlynn Shade, 5'10" vs Mallory Brake, 6'0" - Mallory is a senior and Ashlynn is a freshman...but, you would be hard-pressed to find another freshman as prepared for this level of play than Ashlynn. Mallory and Ashlynn play comparable minutes per game 23 for Mallory and Shade plays 22.8 minutes. Mallory averages 4.5 points, 4.6 rebounds, 2.3 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.6 blocks per game...she is a virtual statistic machine. Ashlynn averages 9.5 points, 1.8 rebounds, 1.3 assists, .4 steals, zero blocks, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. While I believe that Ashlynn will put more points up on the board...I believe Mallory's work in other areas of the game will balance things out... ADVANTAGE - EVEN

KK Arnold, 5'9" vs Molly Mogensen, 5'7" - is a solid point guard for Creighton as she led them in assists last year. This year she averages 7.7 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1 steal, and 1.5 three-pointers per game. KK so far this season has been somewhat of a surprise as she has been called upon to play more minutes because of the injuries to Azzi Fudd and Caroline Ducharme. KK is averaging 8.9 points, 2.2 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.3 steals, and .7 three-pointers per game. I think KK is too much "shake and bake" and too much speed for Molly...so, I am going with a slight... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UConn brings 19.9 points and 12 rebounds off the bench while Creighton brings 14 points and 9.8 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

INTANGIBLES

Playing the game a Creighton is an advantage for Creighton but UConn's four-guard offense has been getting the job done of late. Creighton's senior-laden starting line-up is an advantage for Creighton but UConn's overall talent and deeper bench tend to balance out Creighton's intangible benefits. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

COACHING

Creighton is a well-coached basketball team but, UConn's coaching staff has done it all, they are one of the Women's college basketball elite coaching staffs, and they have the record to prove it. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 92
CREIGHTON - 63

MOV - 29 points

 

[Alydar]

After getting hammered at home last year I expect a much closer game. I watched the Creighton-Marquette game. Creighton played well but Marquette's shooting was unreal. This is likely going to be UConn's toughest conference game.

 

[cferraro04]

After getting hammered at home last year I expect a much closer game. I watched the Creighton-Marquette game. Creighton played well but Marquette's shooting was unreal. This is likely going to be UConn's toughest conference game.

You could be right and I must admit that after I prognosticated a 29-point victory...I had second thoughts but then I started thinking maybe we will find out that this small line-up team that Geno is fielding is better than we think. If UConn can pull off a huge margin victory on the road in a hostile environment then I think hope springs eternal for another final four appearance.

 

[Bone Dog]

Thanks again, @cferraro04.

If I were thinking in terms of matchups, I think we win every single one. If you look at Creighton's starters, they're having their best seasons since they got there. But their worst games individually have tended to be against UConn, and I expect that trend to continue. Jensen, Brake and Ronsiek are in the same league athletically, but they are not as talented as Paige, Aaliyah or Aubrey, and I doubt they can keep up with Nika, KK and Ashlynn. Jensen in particular has struggled against Nika. Given that Creighton is a high-volume shooting team, percentages matter more than points scored. If we hold them to under 40%, we dominate them. And Aubrey poses an insurmountable problem for their bigs.

But Creighton more than most teams doesn't play as individuals. They play a high energy, switching defense, and a quick passing and screening offense. They love chucking up 3s and they chase down every long rebound. When we've let them get close to us, it was generally because we let them out-hustle us. When they're on, they seem to get every 50-50 ball. This means, if we bring the same defensive energy we had against Marquette, we should exhaust them before the end of the 3rd quarter. This spells blowout to me. But if we can't summon up that same energy, it could be a close game. And since they aren't very tall, I expect the small lineup -- Paige Nika KK Ashlyn Aubrey -- to do very well against them. And the 4-out lineup should allow Aaliyah to dominate the low post if Ash Paige and Q are hitting 3s.

This is an opportunity for Ice to develop some confidence. But I think KK Ash and Q to have their best games of the season. If Geno spots Q up in the corner, it will have to be Brake or Maly who comes out to guard her since Jensen and Mogensen are not long enough, and they can't spare Ronsiek for that assignment. And if they don't contest her, Q should be dropping daggers all evening long. As for Ash, she can sink them with 3s, but I think those midrange jumpshots will be utterly demoralizing, especially next to Paige. And KK -- I'm grinning in anticipation of how she' might just run them ragged. They are a hustling team, but none of them can run with KK. And I wonder if Nika will get a double double or even a triple double.

As for a final score, if we play low energy, I expect something like 64-57. But if we play high energy it could be just like the Marquette game, 95-64

 

[Cuango]

I’m a little concerned as we are playing either the No. 2 or No. 3 team in the conference on the road after a relatively easy game against the other best team (except for us). This seems to me to have a real possibility of a let down/taken for granted kind of game. I think it’s pretty clear that if we can play anywhere close to the same game we played against Marquette, we should win going away. The question is, will Geno and the seniors have the younglings ready to play? I think they will, but this game definitely has the potential to go awry. I think Aubrey will be key!

 

[Centerstream]

MATCH-UPS

Aaliyah Edwards, 6'3" vs Emma Ronsiek, 6'1" - Emma is a solid player averaging 18.6 points and 5.7 rebounds per game...Like most of the Blue Jays starters, Emma can step out and hit the three hitting 1.6 threes per game and hitting on 42 percent of her three-point shots. Aaliyah is averaging 17.0 points and 8.5 rebounds per game. She will have to defend Emma out to the three. However, I think Edwards will be a very tough defensive assignment for Emma. Last year Emma did not fare well against UConn, in the first game she had 12 points and 3 rebounds and was zero for three from the three-point line, in game two Emma played 31 minutes and was unable to score...she had five rebounds and five assists. Edwards on the other hand, had 23 points and 20 rebounds in game one and 12 points and 9 rebounds in game two. Game one was rather one-sided with Dorka and Edwards having a field day which had UConn winning going away by a score of 72 to 47. Game two was a low-scoring event and it was a defensive battle, UConn was short-handed, and Senechal, Dorka, and Caroline all scored in double figures in a two-point victory 62 to 60. This year we don't have Senechal, Dorka, or Caroline but we do have Bueckers, a healthy Aubrey Griffin, Shade, KK, and Samuelson. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Katie Lou graduated awhile back but we do have Qadence Samuels.

 

[Ozimoto]

The key to the season is for the team to play to a standard of performance, not to the opponent. This is the way Geno has always wanted his teams to play and I think this is a group that will buy into that philosophy. If they can, their energy will be consistent regardless of the opponent and stats and scores will reflect that.

Last year seemed to have an uncharacteristic flow of up games and down games that just was not typical for a UConn team. They need to avoid that this year.

 

[cferraro04]

Katie Lou graduated awhile back but we do have Qadence Samuels.

Oh, I see what you did there...you made a funny..., in the 1000s of words of text, I got a little sloppy with Qadence's last name and accidentally defaulted to a more familiar player from the past. Will you ever forgive me? In either case...I am looking forward to UConn building upon their recent successes.

 

[Centerstream]

Oh, I see what you did there...you made a funny..., in the 1000s of words of text, I got a little sloppy with Qadence's last name and accidentally defaulted to a more familiar player from the past. Will you ever forgive me? In either case...I am looking forward to UConn building upon their recent successes.

Actually I am very impressed by your analysis and comments thread OPs. I am amazed by the lack of anything to make fun of.

 

[Tonyc]

We have another blow out tonite and there will be alot more eyes opened. Im looking for more improvement from everybody. We are beginning to jell because the energy is directly related to increased confidence and more focus on playing hard. This longer bench is generating more competition and thats healthy for this team. Tonight continue with less turnovers and more rebounds and this could be another romp.

 

[msf22b]

I am optimistic about our current team's possibilities; and was more than impressed with our last game. I thought it was a foreshadowing of potentially great things to come. It would be just peachy if they can replicate their last effort, this evening.

But the over exuberance of opinions written on this thread with the poster suggesting a 29-point win and Tony predicting a blowout is aligned in my view with the ghost of UConn past (hardly the present), when this sort of thing was the norm and our opponents withered before the game even began.

That is hardly the case now.

A decent, more experienced team could make life miserable for our frosh...and suppose, one or two of the seniors has an off-night?

And what do you think Geno and the staff would say if they were pressed to comment on these prediction? I'm sure they would be more than pleased with an 8/10 point win with no one injured and would laugh hysterically at the inanity of this thread.

 

[YKCornelius]

I am hoping that a lot of non-Big East eyeballs will be on this game. In that vein, I would think that either Dee Kantner (who did the Iowa game last night and is "in the neighborhood") or Maj Forsberg (who did the Tulsa game yesterday, just six hours down the road) will be assigned to the officiating crew. Probably not both as there are a lot of important Big-12 games being played tonight in the Mid-west. I am crossing my fingers hoping for Maj, who, IMHO, is the best ref in WBB.

 

[cferraro04]

Actually I am very impressed by your analysis and comments thread OPs. I am amazed by the lack of anything to make fun of.

Thanks I was just feigning the victim here..I enjoy doing the analysis they help me to streamline my expectations and I am actually honored that you took the time to read it. No biggy…we all have to have a sense of humor in these things as it all adds to the pleasure of fandom.

 

[RedStickHusky]

would laugh hysterically at the inanity of this thread.

Would they though... I mean... Why this one among all the others?

 

[Zarathustra]

Oh, I see what you did there...you made a funny..., in the 1000s of words of text, I got a little sloppy with Qadence's last name and accidentally defaulted to a more familiar player from the past. Will you ever forgive me? In either case...I am looking forward to UConn building upon their recent successes.

You are forgiven.... every time... keep the analysis coming.... thoughtful and loyal!!!

 

[cferraro04]

You are forgiven.... every time... keep the analysis coming.... thoughtful and loyal!!!

lol... I hope the Huskies are unforgiving in tonight's encounter with the Blue Jays...

 

[Tonyc]

I am optimistic about our current team's possibilities; and was more than impressed with our last game. I thought it was a foreshadowing of potentially great things to come. It would be just peachy if they can replicate their last effort, this evening.

But the over exuberance of opinions written on this thread with the poster suggesting a 29-point win and Tony predicting a blowout is aligned in my view with the ghost of UConn past (hardly the present), when this sort of thing was the norm and our opponents withered before the game even began.

That is hardly the case now.

A decent, more experienced team could make life miserable for our frosh...and suppose, one or two of the seniors has an off-night?

And what do you think Geno and the staff would say if they were pressed to comment on these prediction? I'm sure they would be more than pleased with an 8/10 point win with no one injured and would laugh hysterically at the inanity of this thread.

There are two kinds of people in the world those who think they can and if you think you cant and your both right

 

[cferraro04]

I am optimistic about our current team's possibilities; and was more than impressed with our last game. I thought it was a foreshadowing of potentially great things to come. It would be just peachy if they can replicate their last effort, this evening.

But the over exuberance of opinions written on this thread with the poster suggesting a 29-point win and Tony predicting a blowout is aligned in my view with the ghost of UConn past (hardly the present), when this sort of thing was the norm and our opponents withered before the game even began.

That is hardly the case now.

A decent, more experienced team could make life miserable for our frosh...and suppose, one or two of the seniors has an off-night?

And what do you think Geno and the staff would say if they were pressed to comment on these prediction? I'm sure they would be more than pleased with an 8/10 point win with no one injured and would laugh hysterically at the inanity of this thread.

"But the over exuberance of opinions written on this thread with the poster suggesting a 29-point win and Tony predicting a blowout is aligned in my view with the ghost of UConn past (hardly the present), when this sort of thing was the norm and our opponents withered before the game even began". Hmmm, the more things change the more they stay the same

'That is hardly the case now'. Yeah? Says who?

"And what do you think Geno and the staff would say if they were pressed to comment on these prediction?" I think they would say..."darn those folks over on the bone-yard know what they are talking about." lol

 

[HuskyNan]

"But the over exuberance of opinions written on this thread with the poster suggesting a 29-point win and Tony predicting a blowout is aligned in my view with the ghost of UConn past (hardly the present), when this sort of thing was the norm and our opponents withered before the game even began". Hmmm, the more things change the more they stay the same

'That is hardly the case now'. Yeah? Says who?

"And what do you think Geno and the staff would say if they were pressed to comment on these prediction?" I think they would say..."darn those folks over on the bone-yard know what they are talking about." lol

@msf22b already threw himself on his sword for that post in the post-game thread

 

[PJCLaw]

I am optimistic about our current team's possibilities; and was more than impressed with our last game. I thought it was a foreshadowing of potentially great things to come. It would be just peachy if they can replicate their last effort, this evening.

But the over exuberance of opinions written on this thread with the poster suggesting a 29-point win and Tony predicting a blowout is aligned in my view with the ghost of UConn past (hardly the present), when this sort of thing was the norm and our opponents withered before the game even began.

That is hardly the case now.

A decent, more experienced team could make life miserable for our frosh...and suppose, one or two of the seniors has an off-night?

And what do you think Geno and the staff would say if they were pressed to comment on these prediction? I'm sure they would be more than pleased with an 8/10 point win with no one injured and would laugh hysterically at the inanity of this thread.

Your post did not age well!!

 

[BRS24]

We have another blow out tonite and there will be alot more eyes opened. Im looking for more improvement from everybody. We are beginning to jell because the energy is directly related to increased confidence and more focus on playing hard. This longer bench is generating more competition and thats healthy for this team. Tonight continue with less turnovers and more rebounds and this could be another romp.

Nice job Tony!

 

[cferraro04]

Aaliyah Edwards vs Emma Ronsiek - Aaliyah with another double-double. She shot .9 points lower than her average but got 2.4 rebounds more than her average. Emma scored 5.6 points less than her average and got 4.7 fewer rebounds than her average

Paige Bueckers vs Morgan Maly - Paige scored 4.4 more points than her average, 3.5 more assists than her average, and grabbed .9 more rebounds than her average...all-around killer game. Morgan Maly on the other hand scored 7.7 points below her average and grabbed 2.1 fewer rebounds than her average.

Nika Muhl vs Lauren Jensen - Nika scored 4.1 fewer points than her average but, was able to dish 1.8 more assists (got her 500th career assist) than her average. She also got 1 more rebound than her average.

Ashlynn Shade vs Mallory Brake - Ashlynn scored 7.8 more points than her average and was able to get 2.9 more rebounds than her average. Mallory Brake was held scoreless (4.5 points below her average). Mallory also was unable to pull down any rebounds (4.9 rebounds below her average).

KK Arnold vs Molly Mogensen - KK scored 7.5 points above her average and .7 rebounds above her average. However, KK did not have any assists which is 2.9 below her average. Molly scored 2.7 points below her average but she was able to get 1.7 more rebounds than her average.

UConn Reserves

Aubrey - unfortunately may have played her last game this season. If this is true she will be greatly missed. We will miss her energy off the bench. We do not have anyone who will be able to replace her. Where do we get Aubrey's 9.5 points and 6 rebounds from? Ice will have to step up; Q will have to step up... Time for Bettencourt to step up. The bench, unfortunately, just got shorter. Aubrey was 3.5 points below her average and 3 rebounds below her average

Ice Brady - Shot the basketball right around her average but was able to pull down 2.5 more rebounds than her average.

Qadence Samuels - scored 1.7 points above her average and was able to grab 3.5 more rebounds than her average.

Creighton Reserves

McKayla Miller - scored 1.9 points above her average.

Brittany Harshaw - scored 1.3 points above her average and pulled down 3.5 more rebounds than her average.

Kiani Lockett - was able to score 3.5 more points than her average but she rebounded right about her average.

Kennedy Townsend - was held scoreless and was 4.7 points below her average while rebounding right around her average.

Jamie Horan - was also held scoreless and was able to rebound right about her average.

UConn Team Stats

1. UConn scored 10.4 points
2. UConn scored 2.6 more three-pointers
3. UConn shot the basketball at 53.3 percent on field goals (2.3 percent higher than our average).
4. UConn shot three-pointers at 47.4 percent (9 percent higher than their average).
5. UConn shot 21 free throws (9 more than our average).
6. UConn shot 8 percent above their average from the FT line.
7. UConn got 45 rebounds (7 above their average).
8. UConn had 19 assists on 32 baskets which was right at their average.
9. UConn had 13 turnovers which was .7 below its average.

Creighton Team Stats

1. They scored 25 fewer points than their average
2. They scored 5.4 fewer three-pointers than their average
3. They shot 19 percent less on their field goals
4. They shot 19 percent less on their three-pointers
5. They made 9 more free throws than their average
6. They pretty much hit their average percentage from the FT line.
7. They only got 29 rebounds (6 less than their average).
8. They only had 8 assists (9 assists less than their average).
9. They committed 16 turnovers which was 6 more than their average.

 

[Alydar]

You could be right and I must admit that after I prognosticated a 29-point victory...I had second thoughts but then I started thinking maybe we will find out that this small line-up team that Geno is fielding is better than we think. If UConn can pull off a huge margin victory on the road in a hostile environment then I think hope springs eternal for another final four appearance.

I'm happy to say you were correct. After watching the last few games I think that UConn's pace of play has befuddled some very good teams. Creighton got caught up in a pace that was faster than they were comfortable playing. I'm impressed.