Analysis and Comments - Game 13 - UConn vs Marquette

[cferraro04]

COMMENTS

Happy New Year Boneyarders!!! Well, we are playing our last game of the year against 18th-ranked and undefeated Marquette. Marquette boasts a very experienced starting line-up as they play 2 graduates, 2 seniors, and 1 sophomore as per player bios. If you go by the roster it says 1 graduate, 3 seniors, and 1 sophomore...a little too confusing for me and definitely above my pay-grade. Marquette's seniors play a lot of minutes with each averaging between 27.8 and 30.9 minutes. They are somewhat undersized in the middle but otherwise have good height at the guard positions.

UConn has had difficulty playing against Marquette...I would expect UConn to be a bit rusty coming off the Christmas vacation...but, also hopefully well rested and hopefully somewhat healed from what has been a pretty physical first 12 games. Marquette will also be shaking off some rust after not playing for 10 days during the Christmas Holiday.

Marquette will start:

1. Liz Karlen, a 6'2" senior forward who averages 17.2 points, 7.6 rebounds, 2.5 assists per game in 28.8 minutes of play. As a junior, she averaged 11.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game. On 12/31/22 she scored 15 points, grabbed six rebounds, and had two steals against UConn. Then on 2/8/23, she totaled 10 boards, four points, four steals, four assists, and one block in a win against UConn. Then one month later on 3/5/23 during the Big East Tournament, she recorded 18 points, five rebounds, and two blocks against UConn. It is fair to say that Liz isn't intimidated by the name on the jersey;

2. Jordan King, a 5'11" graduate guard who averages 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, 1.9 three-pointers (.423) per game in 28.3 minutes. Jordan has played all four years at Marquette and as a freshman she started in all 32 games. She was 2nd on the team and 8th in the Big East in assists at 3.2 per game. As a sophomore, Jordan averaged 9.0 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per game. on 3/21/21 Jordan recorded 11 points, 4 RBs, and 3 assists against UConn 7 days later on 3/7/21 UConn held her to only 2 points and 2 rebounds. As a Junior, Jordan averaged 11.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 4.4 assists. She led the team in assists and was ranked number 4 in the Big East. As a Senior, she once again improved her stats averaging 15.9 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 4.0 assists. She led the team in minutes played, points, 3-point percentage, assists, and steals. She tallied 25 points against number 3 Texas; 23 points against Georgetown, 30 pts against Loyola, Chicago, 23 points against Villanova, 23 points against DePaul, 21 points against Providence, and 27 points against St. Johns. Truth is if you don't guard Jordan she can be a scoring machine;

3. Fannie Hottinger a 6'1" graduate guard / forward who averages 9.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, and 2 assists per game in 27.8 minutes. Fannie played 4 seasons at Lehigh before transferring to Marquette. She was First Team All Patriot League and Patriot League Player of the Year averaging 20.4 points per game (19th in the nation). In short a great pick-up for Marquette;

4. Rose Nkumu a 5'9" Senior guard who averages 8.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.7 steals per game in a team-high 30.9 minutes. As a junior Rose started in 30 of 32 games for Marquette.
She averaged 4.8 points, 2.6 rebounds, and, 2.8 assists per game. Rose had a career-high 5 steals while adding 5 points against UConn on 2/8/23;

5. MacKenzie Hare a 5'9" Sophomore guard who averages 15.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists, and a team-high 3.5 three-pointers per game in 28.7 minutes. MacKenzie led the team in 3-pointers as a freshman. She recorded 15 points, and 4 rebounds against UConn in the Big East Tournament in 2023. You cannot sleep on Mackenzie...if you leave her open she will bury the three...she hits 3.5 per game while shooting them at a .547 clip. She is a bonafide sharpshooter!

UConn will need to play a very tight defensive game. Marquette averages 11.8 three-pointers, and 80.9 points while only turning the ball over 14.7 times per game. Marquette holds its opponents to 59.0 points while forcing 17.2 turnovers per game. They score 17.6 points off turnovers while allowing their opponents only 11.6 points off turnovers. Marquette is a fairly good shooting team: .498 in FG percentages; and .413 from three-point. Marquette moves the ball well and is not selfish with the basketball as they average 21 assists per game.

ANALYSIS

With the long lay-off, I am sure I am not alone in hoping/wishing that Caroline Ducharme is ready to come back. However, this analysis will assume that she is not ready to play yet. Additionally, I don't know if Geno will start KK Arnold or go with Aubrey Griffin. Sure, bringing Griffin off the bench has worked out for him this far but, Marquette is a different team and presents different challenges and Geno may think his best option will be Aubrey (I guess we will have to wait to see what Geno decides).

FIRST SCENARIO

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs Liz Karlen 6'2" - Aaliyah is playing some pretty darn good basketball averaging 16.8 and 8.2 rebounds per game against some pretty tough competition. While Liz is very consistent for the Golden Eagles I think Aaliyah will prove too much for her. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Paige Bueckers 6'0 vs Fannie Hottinger 6'1" - Fannie is a solid player flirting with averaging a double-double (9.4 and 9.2) however, Paige Bueckers is getting stronger with each game she plays. She is already playing at the All-American level. Averaging 18.8 points, 4.3 rebounds, 3.25 assists, 2 steals, and 1.3 blocks you could say she is doing just about everything for UConn. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5'10" vs Jordan King 5'11" - As good as our freshmen have been playing and Ashlynn has played as good as any freshman...this is a match-up I don't like. Jordan is a solid proven and consistent player averaging 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.9 three-pointers per game. This is the match-up that makes me think that Aubrey would be a better fit for the starting line-up in this game. In any case, Ashlynn averages a respectable 9.3 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.6 three-pointers but I think in this match-up... ADVANTAGE - MARQUETTE

KK Arnold 5'9" vs Rose Nkumu 5'9" - We surely are asking freshmen to grow up in a hurry, aren't we? Here we have a good match-up for Ms. Arnold in that Rose Nkumu averages 8.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. KK's game stats are pretty close 8.6 points, 2.3 rebounds, 3.3 assists, and 2.3 steals per game. While this seems to be a pretty even match-up with KK Arnold's speed and defense I am going with a slight... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" vs MacKenzie Hare 5'9" - Let's face it...MacKenzie is a "baller". This kid can ball...can Nika slow her down? The answer to that is, if anyone can Nika can. But, as you can see from the comments above even though Mackenzie is only a sophomore she is a prolific three-point shooter hitting on 3.5 threes per game and shooting at a .547 clip. She averages 15.8 points, 2.4 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Nika is somewhat off her game at 6.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, 1.2 three-pointers, and 1.0 steals per game. I think Nika is working through whatever it is that is keeping her off her usual stats but, I don't think this match-up favors her. ADVANTAGE - MARQUETTE

BENCH

UConn will bring 19.7 points, and 12.2 points off the bench while Marquette will bring 17.0 points, and 13 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

INTANGIBLES

UConn playing at home, Geno has had time to tinker with the line-up and fix a few things that needed fixing, the team is rested and hopefully somewhat healed. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Megan Duffy is tough as nails and she has done a great job at Marquette. She is in her fifth year as a head coach at Marquette and she has the highest winning percentage in the history of Marquette basketball. Her record is a respectable 87 and 37 for a .702 winning percentage...what's not to like about that? Geno on the other hand is in his 39th year making him the maestro of the game. Geno has amassed a 1,180-156 (.883) record...that is beyond ridiculous. I love Megan but she has a way to go before I would give her an edge over Geno. ADVANTAGE - UCONN


SECOND SCENARIO

Aaliyah Edwards 6'3" vs Liz Karlen 6'2" - Aaliyah is playing some pretty darn good basketball averaging 16.8 and 8.2 rebounds per game against some pretty tough competition. While Liz is very consistent for the Golden Eagles I think Aaliyah will prove too much for her. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Aubrey Griffin 6'1" vs Fannie Hottinger 6'1" - Now, I like this match-up better as I think Ms. Griffin is better suited for this match-up because it now frees up Paige to match up with MacKenzie Hare. In this match-up, Aubrey's athleticism negates Fannie's advantages as Aubrey averages 9.8 points, 6.0 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.8 steals to Fannie's 9.4 points, 9.2 rebounds, 2.0 assists, and 1.3 steals. Aubrey's defense could swing the advantage slightly to... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Ashlynn Shade 5'10" vs Jordan King 5'11" - As good as our freshmen have been playing and Ashlynn has played as good as any freshman...this is a match-up I don't like. Jordan is a solid proven and consistent player averaging 15.3 points, 3.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 1.9 three-pointers per game. This is the match-up that makes me think that Aubrey would be a better fit for the starting line-up in this game. In any case, Ashlynn averages a respectable 9.3 points, 1.7 rebounds, 1.3 assists, and 1.6 three-pointers but I think in this match-up... ADVANTAGE - MARQUETTE

Paige Bueckers 6'0" vs MacKenzie Hare 5'9" - This match-up in my opinion dramatically changes the analysis reached in scenario one...here Paige's defense makes things much more difficult for Mackenzie. And, the defensive assignment for Mackenzie becomes incredibly more difficult. The advantage swings conclusively towards... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

Nika Muhl 5'11" vs Rose Nkumu 5'9" - I believe that Rose is a more suitable match-up for Nika. Rose's statistics are more within Nika's wheelhouse since Rose averages 8.6 points, 2.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.7 steals and is not a three-point threat. Meanwhile, Nika's stats are very similar to Rose's at 6.6 points, 3.4 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.0 steals, and while Nika shoots a respectable .400 from three she doesn't shoot enough of them. This match-up now swings from an advantage Marquette to one based on Nika's defensive tenacity to a slight... ADVANTAGE - UCONN

BENCH

UConn will bring 18.5 points, and 8.5 rebounds off the bench while Marquette will bring 17.0 points, and 13 rebounds off the bench. ADVANTAGE - EVEN

INTANGIBLES

UConn playing at home, Geno has had time to tinker with the line-up and fix a few things that needed fixing, the team is rested and hopefully somewhat healed. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

COACHING

Megan Duffy is tough as nails and she has done a great job at Marquette. She is in her fifth year as a head coach at Marquette and she has the highest winning percentage in the history of Marquette basketball. Her record is a respectable 87 and 37 for a .702 winning percentage...what's not to like about that? Geno on the other hand is in his 39th year making him the maestro of the game. Geno has amassed a 1,180-156 (.883) record...that is beyond ridiculous. I love Megan but she has a way to go before I would give her an edge of Geno. ADVANTAGE - UCONN

SCORE

UCONN - 81
MARQUETTE - 71

MOV - 10

 

[Bone Dog]

Interesting analysis, @cferraro04. I think the second version is more likely. A couple (ok, five) observations:

1. Karlen has never been able to contain Aaliyah in 3 years. I like her game otherwise, but she is just not strong enough or quick enough for this assignment.
2. Marquette has no one who can match up with Aubrey. Certainly not Hottinger. I expect she’ll disrupt their offense from the perimeter and in the paint.
3. Jordan King is a serious talent as a perimeter shooter and a penetrator. But her worst games have been against Nika. I expect this streak to continue.
4. Nkumu and Hare are developing talents and can make a difference on any given night. But neither of them can run with KK or shoot with Ashlynn.
5. Paige — ‘nuff said. There is no answer for her anywhere on Marquette’s roster.

I expect this to be a romp for the freshman. Paige Aaliyah Aubrey and Nika will dominate their matchups, enabling KK and Ashlynn to feel unleashed. The only question for me is whether Ice and Qadence will have breakout games. I suspect at least one of them will.

We may not break 80 points in this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we hold them under 60. We may also see the familiar pattern unfold where the opposing team stays close in the first quarter and maybe the second, and then falls behind in the third. It would be cool to see a big lead earlier.

 

[HuskyNan]

 

[freshler40]

Thanks for the great write up with player match ups. Being a home game should result in a five point advantage at least. This is a new season and Geno now knows what his players bring in real time. We have some depth now, speed and time to work though needed chemistry adjustments. If Nika can play as the shooting guard this will cut down on turnovers and enhance our fast break opportunities. I like an up-tempo game for us here.

 

[HopJim]

Have to give props to Megan Duffy, who gets everything possible out of her players and always seems to have creative and effective strategy versus UConn. If there was a coach outside of the UConn family chosen to replace Geno many years from now, she would be high on my list. Should be close and entertaining game.

 

[JellyBean]

Pretty solid analysis @cferraro04 I always worry about these games after a long layoff. There is some carryover from the break and expectations are out the window. It is almost like the start of a new season. We will see what develops.

 

[Huskee11]

If you compare UConn`s statistics to Marquette`s, both through twelve games, they are remarkably similar in almost every category. They shoot the ball well and share the ball well.

Marquette shoots almost 50% from the field, including 41% from three. They average almost eight threes per game. Hare is their best from deep, shooting a gaudy 55% from three.

If they are able to stay with UConn it will be because they are getting open looks from three, particularly Hare and King, and knocking them down.

But a lot of their damage from deep has come against weaker opponents. They were 10 for 23 from three versus Boston College but 5-16 versus Illinois, 4-19 versus Arkansas, 5-18 versus Illinois State (only a two point win), and 4-7 versus Creighton. In the most recent game against Bucknell they were only 6-20.

We do not always defend the three well. Most recent game in the United States, Butler went 10-16 from three.

So whoever has the scout for this game will need to figure out how Creighton held them to seven attempts from three and how other quality opponents limited the damage from three. I imagine that the emphasis in practice this week on the defensive side of the ball is guarding the three.

I doubt we will see much if any zone from UConn on December 31. That plays into the hands of a good shooting team that passes well. We should have an advantage in quickness but we have to avoid defensive breakdowns and jump out on their pick and pops.

Nika has generally been very effective on King and Aaliyah has had some big games against Marquette. Marotta was a problem at times but she has graduated and La Chapell, also a problem at times, transferred out. So I definitely like our chances but we need to blanket their shooters.

 

[PhillyCoach]

Lots of good analysis here. I enjoy the slightly different perspectives from each poster. Helps keep me thinking and questioning.
I like Massey ratings. Massey's predictions seem to be very close most times. Massey has Marquette at 19th. Massey thinks it will be closer than a lot of posters. We will see.
Both teams had a long vacation so that does not factor into much for me.
Having 4-5 seniors & grads for Marquette is a big reason they are undefeated. The team was tight from the beginning.
For me, A key point at this part of the season is who you played so far. UConn experienced the competition at its Max. Even Louisville and Maryland are rated in the top 20 for Massey. Marquette has played 2 teams in Masseys top 50 and Arkansas is one of those 2 at 49! The third best team is listed at 80. Anyway, the good stats for Marquette are suspect with the schedule they had.
UConn knows what the top speed and physicality feels like. Marquette not so much. I put the over-under at 12
The fun part for me is watching how the Frosh will compete and will they have some consistency.

 

[Tonyc]

Always a great analysis CFerraro. UConn will have to play aggressive defense, rebound and keep the turnovers down Marquette will have a problem with UConns speed UConn is too quick imo for Marquette. As good as Marquettes stats are and they are impressive theyre against alot of lesser quality teams. I like UConn by double digits in this one.

 

[Bigboote]

I still can’t get my head around Marquette holding Arkansas to 58 points and giving up 91 to Appalachian State.

 

[HuskyNan]

Marquette’s schedule via Massey.

 

[Cuango]

While I see the logic of starting Aubrey in this matchup, I have a feeling Geno will go with the same starting unit he has settled on for the last few games. I do think we will see Aubrey very quickly if things deteriorate early though and that she (Aubrey) will play a lot of minutes in this game. I think this game is likely to be a very tough one and may require some heroics from Paige and/or Aaliyah in order to win! If Ash can continue her recent good play then this game becomes much more manageable! Hopefully, Ice can step up and have a breakout game as well. Go Huskies!

 

[TCC Kid]

Interesting analysis, @cferraro04. I think the second version is more likely. A couple (ok, five) observations:

1. Karlen has never been able to contain Aaliyah in 3 years. I like her game otherwise, but she is just not strong enough or quick enough for this assignment.
2. Marquette has no one who can match up with Aubrey. Certainly not Hottinger. I expect she’ll disrupt their offense from the perimeter and in the paint.
3. Jordan King is a serious talent as a perimeter shooter and a penetrator. But her worst games have been against Nika. I expect this streak to continue.
4. Nkumu and Hare are developing talents and can make a difference on any given night. But neither of them can run with KK or shoot with Ashlynn.
5. Paige — ‘nuff said. There is no answer for her anywhere on Marquette’s roster.

I expect this to be a romp for the freshman. Paige Aaliyah Aubrey and Nika will dominate their matchups, enabling KK and Ashlynn to feel unleashed. The only question for me is whether Ice and Qadence will have breakout games. I suspect at least one of them will.

We may not break 80 points in this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we hold them under 60. We may also see the familiar pattern unfold where the opposing team stays close in the first quarter and maybe the second, and then falls behind in the third. It would be cool to see a big lead earlier.

I like your posting. Shades I think is being dismissed by the OP posting. She IS NOT inexperienced--she may have limited Div 2 time, but she has showed no fear and didn't hide when the going got ruff. If King is a baller--so is Ashlynn. I'm happy KK is getting a good review--she's coming into her own.
With the current and recent crop of players--they have played day, weeks, months, years of basketball--against all kinds of talent. This isn't your daddy's Womens basketball.

 

[HuskyNan]

I like your posting. Shades I think is being dismissed by the OP posting. She IS NOT inexperienced--she may have limited Div 2 time, but she has showed no fear and didn't hide when the going got ruff. If King is a baller--so is Ashlynn. I'm happy KK is getting a good review--she's coming into her own.
With the current and recent crop of players--they have played day, weeks, months, years of basketball--against all kinds of talent. This isn't your daddy's Womens basketball.

Right. Ashlynn has already played UCLA, Texas, UNC, and Louisville. Why ould she be nervous playing at home with a near sellout crowd to cheer her on?

 

[TCC Kid]

Marquette’s schedule via Massey.

View attachment 94521

Nice just nice, thanks

 

[TCC Kid]

Right. Ashlynn has already played UCLA, Texas, UNC, and Louisville. Why ould she be nervous playing at home with a near sellout crowd to cheer her on?

I like this player. Sumps however come and go, the smart ones handle them properly---and Ashlynn is SMART.

 

[JoePgh]

Does anyone know the back story regarding Emily LaChappell? She was a freshman at Marquette last year, after a distinguished high school career in Wisconsin, and she got quite a few minutes and seemed to make the most of her opportunity. Apparently she entered the transfer portal immediately after the season, and then transferred to Belmont (hardly a prize destination). However, I looked at the box score of a recent Belmont game, and it did not include her name.

It seems unusual for someone who played so well for so many minutes to transfer, unless it was a Hailey Van Lith situation where she was transferring to a major program with national championship prospects. Does anyone know what really happened last year?

 

[BobbyJ]

Does anyone know the back story regarding Emily LaChappell? She was a freshman at Marquette last year, after a distinguished high school career in Wisconsin, and she got quite a few minutes and seemed to make the most of her opportunity. Apparently she entered the transfer portal immediately after the season, and then transferred to Belmont (hardly a prize destination). However, I looked at the box score of a recent Belmont game, and it did not include her name.

It seems unusual for someone who played so well for so many minutes to transfer, unless it was a Hailey Van Lith situation where she was transferring to a major program with national championship prospects. Does anyone know what really happened last year?

Don't know about the reasons but this explains some of the thinking.

Former Appleton East star Emily La Chapell chooses Belmont after leaving Marquette

Emily La Chapell commits to Belmont University in Nashville after entering transfer portal following solid freshman season at Marquette.

www.postcrescent.com

 

[Zarathustra]

I like the analysis and the comparisons between the different possible lineups.
My thoughts, however, go to the strength of schedules. If Marquette played
Texas, N.C. State, and UCLA, all of their stats would be QUITE different. The threat
to UCONN is Marquette's experience playing together with a coach that always gets
the most out of her squad. We will win because our upperclassmen are "upper" and
the freshman will again be "solid" and ICE will melt/break the hearts of the Golden
Eagle fans. It doesn't hurt either that this is a home game!! Go Huskies!

 

[JBK]

Interesting analysis, @cferraro04. I think the second version is more likely. A couple (ok, five) observations:

1. Karlen has never been able to contain Aaliyah in 3 years. I like her game otherwise, but she is just not strong enough or quick enough for this assignment.
2. Marquette has no one who can match up with Aubrey. Certainly not Hottinger. I expect she’ll disrupt their offense from the perimeter and in the paint.
3. Jordan King is a serious talent as a perimeter shooter and a penetrator. But her worst games have been against Nika. I expect this streak to continue.
4. Nkumu and Hare are developing talents and can make a difference on any given night. But neither of them can run with KK or shoot with Ashlynn.
5. Paige — ‘nuff said. There is no answer for her anywhere on Marquette’s roster.

I expect this to be a romp for the freshman. Paige Aaliyah Aubrey and Nika will dominate their matchups, enabling KK and Ashlynn to feel unleashed. The only question for me is whether Ice and Qadence will have breakout games. I suspect at least one of them will.

We may not break 80 points in this game, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we hold them under 60. We may also see the familiar pattern unfold where the opposing team stays close in the first quarter and maybe the second, and then falls behind in the third. It would be cool to see a big lead earlier.

I am a Nika fan, but how she going to dominate her matchup. She did not score against the Canadian team.
To dominate - it should be defensively and offensively .
I am rooting to see Nika penetrate and dish.
I do want to see her stick a pull up. - not just a few 3’s a game.
I am rooting for this so she can keep playing professionally.
She definitely has the heart and desire.

 

[TCC Kid]

I am a Nika fan, but how she going to dominate her matchup. She did not score against the Canadian team.
To dominate - it should be defensively and offensively .
I am rooting to see Nika penetrate and dish.
I do want to see her stick a pull up. - not just a few 3’s a game.
I am rooting for this so she can keep playing professionally.
She definitely has the heart and desire.

Me too. Also, I'd like to see Shades given "go ahead" and while doing the Point Guard thing, bringing the ball down court--to stop and pop more that 4 threes. She's is also good popping inside the circle. She's a lot more than we have seen--.

 

[Skeets]

You may not agree with this, but an opponent's SoS, by itself, says absolutely nothing about how good the opponent is (see LSU). To dwell on this is a false argument and sets up unrealistic expectations.

 

[Zarathustra]

I am a Nika fan, but how she going to dominate her matchup. She did not score against the Canadian team.
To dominate - it should be defensively and offensively .
I am rooting to see Nika penetrate and dish.
I do want to see her stick a pull up. - not just a few 3’s a game.
I am rooting for this so she can keep playing professionally.
She definitely has the heart and desire.

Some reports that Nika was coming off of a "flu" bug.... Maybe??

 

[Bone Dog]

I am a Nika fan, but how she going to dominate her matchup. She did not score against the Canadian team.
To dominate - it should be defensively and offensively .

If Nika holds Jordan King to <10 points, she'll have dominated the matchup, even if she hardly scores at all. The impact on Marquette's offense will be the same as if Nika. sores 20.

 

[huskeynut]

Two excellent scenarios against Marquette. This is how Geno will play mix and match for the game. Add in Ice and Qadence and we're good. Geno will start the 5 he has the last few games. We all know Aubrey will be the changer off the bench.

Marquette doesn't have the flexibility defensively or offensively. Duffy basically plans her starting 5.

Game could be a little ragged at the start with the layoff.