If you follow history, every great dynasty has its run and eventually is replaced or exceeded by another. UConn's 11 NC come with a target and other programs have elevated their coaching, recruiting, facilities and now NIL offerings. The old days are gone, and top players have multiple options. UT begat UConn and now SC has inched forward. This is not an indictment, just an acknowledgement.
Whether Geno & UConn can reach the top of the pyramid remains to be seen, but it surely has been hampered by the last 3 years of near-constant injuries. Of the 14 players on this year's roster, 7, exactly half have missed a full season or more. When it includes your two best players, it is a difficult task to overcome. That said, in Paige's first 2 years, UConn reached the semis and lost in a NC. For most programs, this would be an unparalleled success. However, the specter of the past seems to always affect judgment, only another NC seems to matter. The game has changed, evolved and is inundated with better talent.
Injuries are part of any sport, but what is sometimes forgotten is that while an athlete can make a full recovery, they don't immediately return to their prior level. It usually takes the next or second season for an athlete to feel fully recovered. Following surgery, an athlete heals, strengthens the injured part and reincorporates the skills that made them special. It takes time for an athlete to fully trust their body, believe and realize they can do all the things they did prior to their injury. Basketball has so many moving parts, it truly takes time, practice and perseverance to make it all the way back. However, the real strength gains are made following their first year back.
As anybody who has undergone rehab after a major sports injury, strength is the hardest to get back after a long time off. Let's look at Paige. She's made a remarkable recovery and has performed admirably. However, if we looked at her years under a microscope, I would say that Paige's current level is less than 100% compared to her freshman and first part of her sophomore year before the first injury against ND. Because she is so talented and gifted, she may appear fully back, but I feel she is still missing in a few areas. Elevation on her pull-up jumper, explosiveness going to the basket, quickness with her first step or dribble. With another off season under her belt, I believe we will see a physically improved Paige.
Like many others, I was hoping more from Ice Brady this season, but missing out on her freshman and trying to recover, she needs more time and practice to be the player everyone expected of her coming out of high school.
This this year of injuries has caught up with UConn. If not for LLS and Dorka last season, I hate to think of what UConn's record would have been. They were special and both 5th year seniors - which makes a huge difference. For every Hannah Hidalgo, JuJu Watkins, Paige Bueckers & Caitlin Clark, there are hundreds of freshman with up and down results. And UConn is relying on 4 first-year players out of their top 7, and one of those players is coming off a lost season. To make matters worse, Paige is forced to play out of position, guarding bigger players and taking a physical toll, wearing her down. She is a skill player, not a physical one.
Any other top program that has experienced the level of injuries that UConn has sustained the past 3 years would have derailed them too. The generational backcourt that Geno envisioned has never materialized, Azzi and Paige playing in only 17 games together and probably not a one with both at 100%. With the relative exception of SC, Stanford and Iowa, who have enjoyed relatively good health, losing a star player is impactful. UConn has navigated as best they can, but against the top teams, they are playing behind from the start.
I hope that Paige returns next year. I want that selfishly, but I also think it would be in her best interests physically. I hope the players who are out this season are able to recover and remain healthy. With a full complement of players, I'd like to see Geno extend his rotation and not have to go through this experience again of playing his starting 5 too many minutes.
Before anyone puts a nail in UConn's coffin, let's see how they fare with an injury-free season. Yes, other programs are getting stronger, but UConn is not going anywhere without a fight.