Akok Only 25 Minutes

[DaveHuskiesFan]

Again, you are thinking of it too linearly in a vacuum. If Akok stays in, perhaps he picks up 4 fouls in the first half, and 1 in the first 5 in the second. So you have him for less overall time. The refs appeared to be calling tighter earlier in the game. Why would you ever assume his foul rate would be linear across the game?

Gilbert was out for a large stretch of that time too. It very well could be that he was the more important factor (offense would run, turnovers would drop, assists would rise), given our ineptness at the point. So Akok in, with Gilbert out, might not have moved the needle.

It should be looked at in a vacuum. Points count the same, minutes count the same, rebounds count the same. You don't get more points for scoring in minute 2 then you do in minute 38. The goal is to maximize your minutes. By keeping your best players on the bench, you are manually fouling them out. Let your best players foul themselves out, not the coach. We just have a difference of opinion.

 

[Yup!]

I would rather see Akok foul out in this game than for time to expire and he has 3 fouls. He was easily our best player from the tip.

I agree the announcers said UConn is a different animal with Akok in the game. As soon as he got benched the game slipped away.

 

[Kembacity]

10 Likes on my first post in this thread says otherwise. I have a feeling we'll look back on this at the end of the year and I'll be right. He's an exceptional at defending without out fouling from the eye test, and the data thus far, supports that.

ugh, we're counting up likes now?

You may be right and your prediction spot on, yet you wont actually be 'right', just lucky. Pick some metric that ranks teams on a scale, compare the avg ranking of the 9 opponents he's faced, and compare it with the remaining 20+ he will face when conference play begins and we play Nova. I think the upcoming opponents on avg are better than those we already faced, even with the AAC being weak.

In addition, as we've covered, Akok is a freshman, with seemingly a HUGE love for the game of basketball and growing as a player. I completely expect him to be a better player 2 months from now than he is now, so we'll see the level of competition increase but also his skills and reps on the court make him a better blocker and hopefully better at controlling his body.

Bottom line is, you're a genius and every little thought that pops into your head is Einstein's morning dump, we are all lesser beings for being reasonable with the expectations of a young basketball player

 

[DaveHuskiesFan]

ugh, we're counting up likes now?

You may be right and your prediction spot on, yet you wont actually be 'right', just lucky. Pick some metric that ranks teams on a scale, compare the avg ranking of the 9 opponents he's faced, and compare it with the remaining 20+ he will face when conference play begins and we play Nova. I think the upcoming opponents on avg are better than those we already faced, even with the AAC being weak.

In addition, as we've covered, Akok is a freshman, with seemingly a HUGE love for the game of basketball and growing as a player. I completely expect him to be a better player 2 months from now than he is now, so we'll see the level of competition increase but also his skills and reps on the court make him a better blocker and hopefully better at controlling his body.

Bottom line is, you're a genius and every little thought that pops into your head is Einstein's morning dump, we are all lesser beings for being reasonable with the expectations of a young basketball player

Opponents so far average ranking of 126. Opponents remaining average ranking of 122.

 

[Kembacity]

I feel like everyone talking about valuing the minutes early on and playing guys when they seem to have too many fouls really doesn't take into account in game coaching strategies. If you have that shot blocker out there when the other team knows he's in "foul trouble" relative to the time left, the team strategy is going to be to go after that guy EVERY play.

Drive at that defender, flop your legs out when you shoot in the hopes they kind of hit them and a ref calls a bad foul, if you lose the ball on your own and that defender is anywhere near you, fall over and cry about it.

Refs are terrible, and athletes don't play fair. For these reasons, I think in most cases you have to sit that guy mid first half with 2 fouls, especially the younger he is, regardless of how he's played so far in his career.

You cannot look at fouls per game or per 40 minutes in a bubble, because if the player has NEVER been in "foul trouble" in those minutes for your data, you have ZERO data on how many fouls he picks up when the other team is hellbent on getting fouls called on him. Data matters, but perspective on the data is necessary

 

[Kembacity]

One last point before I sign off here

I LOVE that this argument started, because there's nothing I love more than UConn basketball, data, and pedantic arguments dealing with data. If I had a glass of whiskey right now I'd be in heaven!!!!

 

[intlzncster]

It should be looked at in a vacuum. Points count the same, minutes count the same, rebounds count the same. You don't get more points for scoring in minute 2 then you do in minute 38. The goal is to maximize your minutes. By keeping your best players on the bench, you are manually fouling them out. Let your best players foul themselves out, not the coach. We just have a difference of opinion.

It literally can't be looked at in a vacuum. Every input and assumption changes as the circumstances of the game change.

I feel like everyone talking about valuing the minutes early on and playing guys when they seem to have too many fouls really doesn't take into account in game coaching strategies. If you have that shot blocker out there when the other team knows he's in "foul trouble" relative to the time left, the team strategy is going to be to go after that guy EVERY play.

Drive at that defender, flop your legs out when you shoot in the hopes they kind of hit them and a ref calls a bad foul, if you lose the ball on your own and that defender is anywhere near you, fall over and cry about it.

Refs are terrible, and athletes don't play fair. For these reasons, I think in most cases you have to sit that guy mid first half with 2 fouls, especially the younger he is, regardless of how he's played so far in his career.

You cannot look at fouls per game or per 40 minutes in a bubble, because if the player has NEVER been in "foul trouble" in those minutes for your data, you have ZERO data on how many fouls he picks up when the other team is hellbent on getting fouls called on him. Data matters, but perspective on the data is necessary

That's what I was talking about without going into it. It's one of many factors. You could start listing them, but you'd be here awhile. These are huge multivariate functions.

Looking at it in a vacuum is looking at it in a completely myopic fashion.

 

[MuchoDogYears]

You make way too many assumptions. There isn't one input here.

He might only have played 22 min if Hurley kept him in. You don't know that he wouldn't have fouled out quicker. These things aren't linear.



That's a declarative statement ignoring all the other inputs/factors in winning losing a game. It's more correlative in that regard. Looking at a player in a vacuum, which makes no sense.



This is based on a bunch of un-demonstrable assumptions, as to be completely devoid of any meaning.

I think he would have fouled out much earlier in the game. No way he lasts 34 minutes with a team that draws fouls like that and those refs calling it like they were. So he would have been out of the game with 10 min to go and they would have won on FTs by 10+.

I disagree. Akok would’ve played more minutes if allowed to stay in the game until either it ended or he fouled out. If you want to believe otherwise that’s your prerogative.

 

[BNich]

He needs more than just rolls to the basket. I'd love to see pick and pop action with him. It you double that up and if the guards can do it, you can run both the pick and roll and pop at the same time. We need to have some plays run for Akok.

let's give it time. I'm with you. It will take some time to develop but hopefully we see more as the season goes on.

 

[HuskyHoosier]

Sorry if it’s been mentioned and I missed it, but a point in favor of benching with two fouls is that the opposing team and coach, especially if he’s good, will will target that defensive player every time down the court. And you end up with either weak defense or a 3rd foul.

I would prefer no hard and fast rule and to take everything as situational.

 

[Robertelamin]

It is a little scary that UConn apparently doesn’t have a capable backup to AG...I’m hoping Adams and Gafney can gain some confidence against the upcoming cupcakes because Vital can absolutely not be running the point.

 

[CL82]

And Geno leaves his players in with 2 fouls and he's won 11 titles.

The fact is, sitting your guys because of fouls is simply imposing on yourself, early in the game, the penalty that you're trying to avoid late in the game.

Sometimes. I can remember when time when Samuelson picked up her fourth foul. She started walking towards the bench and Auriemma asked her “where are you going?” She replied “I got my fourth foul you have to take me out.” Geno says “I didn't get the foul. I don’t have to do anything! Figure it out.”

 

[Kenny11]

It is a little scary that UConn apparently doesn’t have a capable backup to AG...I’m hoping Adams and Gafney can gain some confidence against the upcoming cupcakes because Vital can absolutely not be running the point.

There has to be a strict No Vital rule at point guard. Hurley knows this. He just needs to trust the other guys.

 

[UCSouth]

Moronic argument


Hmmm, have you ever heard the phrase hindsight is 20/20? You saw Akok's 3rd foul... if he got that in the first half, and got it again in the start of the 2nd, then he's got 4 and we have 18 minutes of basketball left to play, so we'd have to sit him for 10 minutes. I personally like what Hurley did with Akok, the guy is a shot blocker, he's going to have a much tougher time not fouling when the other team is hellbent on getting him to foul out. Gilbert would have a much easier time not comitting fouls by purposefully not playing defense too close. You can have support in your argument about sitting Al too long, but not Akok...

A shot blocker specialist playing in his 10th game in college regardless of how many fouls he finishes with, is a liability to commit fouls plain and simple

You are 1000% correct, but unfortunately you are dealing with clueless people on here. They spew stats like it is the gospel. Unfortunately they can't seem to grasp the concept that Hurley is getting paid to coach the team and he is pretty good at it. On to the next game....

 

[Hi-Low]

I think even Hurley looking back at the IU game realizes Akok needed to play 32+ minutes. It's a bummer looking at the box score seeing our best player with only 3 fouls and 25 minutes.

Get creative and sub for him on D if worried, he is a major presence on both ends of the court so even "1/2" of him on O is better than none.

 

[husky429]

I feel like everyone talking about valuing the minutes early on and playing guys when they seem to have too many fouls really doesn't take into account in game coaching strategies. If you have that shot blocker out there when the other team knows he's in "foul trouble" relative to the time left, the team strategy is going to be to go after that guy EVERY play.

Drive at that defender, flop your legs out when you shoot in the hopes they kind of hit them and a ref calls a bad foul, if you lose the ball on your own and that defender is anywhere near you, fall over and cry about it.

Refs are terrible, and athletes don't play fair. For these reasons, I think in most cases you have to sit that guy mid first half with 2 fouls, especially the younger he is, regardless of how he's played so far in his career.

You cannot look at fouls per game or per 40 minutes in a bubble, because if the player has NEVER been in "foul trouble" in those minutes for your data, you have ZERO data on how many fouls he picks up when the other team is hellbent on getting fouls called on him. Data matters, but perspective on the data is necessary

Very, very good point. I'd give 2 likes if I could.

 

[superjohn]

I hate the 2 fouls automatic sit down thing and always have, everyone always points to the Okafor Duke game and I hated it then as well. Everything worked out in the end but I think we blow Duke's doors off if Okafor doesn't sit. I think there is a pretty decent chance we do the same if Alterique and Akok don't sit. You certainly can't have your two most important players in the game sitting at the same time. Fouls tend to even themselves out and refs have a really hard time fouling guys out....Calhoun walks on water but his strict adherence to it is right up there with him never fouling when up 3 at the end of the game, always hated that.

 

[ctchamps]

I feel like everyone talking about valuing the minutes early on and playing guys when they seem to have too many fouls really doesn't take into account in game coaching strategies. If you have that shot blocker out there when the other team knows he's in "foul trouble" relative to the time left, the team strategy is going to be to go after that guy EVERY play.

Drive at that defender, flop your legs out when you shoot in the hopes they kind of hit them and a ref calls a bad foul, if you lose the ball on your own and that defender is anywhere near you, fall over and cry about it.

Refs are terrible, and athletes don't play fair. For these reasons, I think in most cases you have to sit that guy mid first half with 2 fouls, especially the younger he is, regardless of how he's played so far in his career.

You cannot look at fouls per game or per 40 minutes in a bubble, because if the player has NEVER been in "foul trouble" in those minutes for your data, you have ZERO data on how many fouls he picks up when the other team is hellbent on getting fouls called on him. Data matters, but perspective on the data is necessary

Great post. It's also human nature for the player with 3 fouls to play cautiously.

Another consideration is the quality of play that Sid provided during much of that time Akok was sitting.

Sid comes in when Akok picks up his third at 16:53 and gets a block on the next play. He gets an assist at 14:58 to Josh. TO at 14:20; D rebound at 12:52; O rebound and missed layup at 12:37; D rebound at 12:21 leading to fast break makes the shot on an assist by Al, is fouled and makes the foul shot at 12:15; media time out at 11:49 Akok subbed in for Sid but Sid comes back in for Akok at 11:18 and scores on the steal and alley oop by Christian at 10:59; gets a D rebound at 9:26 and a block at 8:44; foul at 7:32 in which he's subbed out.

Arbitrary is not just pulling players with two fouls in the first half. It's also not considering other things such as opposing teams, how refs are calling games and how substitutes are performing in place of the foul strapped player.

 

[Waquoit]

I hate the 2 fouls automatic sit down thing and always have, everyone always points to the Okafor Duke game and I hated it then as well.

And they refuse to acknowledge Maryland game where sitting Butler blew it.

 

[Excalibur]

And they refuse to acknowledge Maryland game where sitting Butler blew it.

I've always loved this inaccurate description --

Butler sat for five minutes. We had a two point lead when he went out, played it even for three minutes, and MD went on a mini-run in the last couple of minutes. Still, it was a four point game when some no-name guy from Maryland hit an over the shoulder three as time expired. I'm sure Butler would have prevented that.

Fresh and motivated, Butler scored 26 in the second half and we had control of the game with 4 minutes to go. Maryland's big run came late -- with Butler on the floor.

 

[Waquoit]

Too bad about that mini-run.

 

[jibsey]

Letting Akok foul out is preferable to us losing and him having less than 5 fouls. I know it worked for Calhoun and Okafor in the National championship game vs Georgia tech but we don’t have that kind of UCONN team do we?