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Akok Only 25 Minutes

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it really turns into a debate about the value of minutes within the game. are all minutes created equal, or are late game minutes more valuable?

on the surface you would think you want to optimize total minutes played. pulling gilbert and akok early backfired in this respect, as they ended the game with fouls to give.

however both players were available for the late game push. pulling them early worked in this respect.

it ends up being an optimization problem based on the particular player, opponent, and how the game is being called. i don’t think any absolute rule will ever work (e.g. always pull with 2 fouls in first half). the coach has to make a decision based on the factors above.

unfortunately, things didn’t break the right way for us last night, but hindsight is often 20/20 in these types of arguments.
 
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Sid should have gotten more run too. HIs energy in the middle of the second half kept us in the game.
 
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I have always believed you sit your best players before the half if they have 2 fouls. Calhoun did that too. I would take a page out his playbook if i was you, he won 3 NC’s. You don’t want to risk your best players to be out in the closing minutes of the game.

And Geno leaves his players in with 2 fouls and he's won 11 titles.

The fact is, sitting your guys because of fouls is simply imposing on yourself, early in the game, the penalty that you're trying to avoid late in the game.
 

intlzncster

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it really turns into a debate about the value of minutes within the game. are all minutes created equal, or are late game minutes more valuable?

on the surface you would think you want to optimize total minutes played. pulling gilbert and akok early backfired in this respect, as they ended the game with fouls to give.

however both players were available for the late game push. pulling them early worked in this respect.

it ends up being an optimization problem based on the particular player, opponent, and how the game is being called. i don’t think any absolute rule will ever work (e.g. always pull with 2 fouls in first half). the coach has to make a decision based on the factors above.

unfortunately, things didn’t break the right way for us last night, but hindsight is often 20/20 in these types of arguments.

All minutes are equal in a vacuum, but not irl on the court.
 
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it really turns into a debate about the value of minutes within the game. are all minutes created equal, or are late game minutes more valuable?

on the surface you would think you want to optimize total minutes played. pulling gilbert and akok early backfired in this respect, as they ended the game with fouls to give.

however both players were available for the late game push. pulling them early worked in this respect.

it ends up being an optimization problem based on the particular player, opponent, and how the game is being called. i don’t think any absolute rule will ever work (e.g. always pull with 2 fouls in first half). the coach has to make a decision based on the factors above.

unfortunately, things didn’t break the right way for us last night, but hindsight is often 20/20 in these types of arguments.

Bingo. Late minutes ARE more important due to leverage. At least in games suspected of being close. Coaches benching players with 2 fouls are sacrificing less important minutes to trade them for a higher likelihood of having the better team in high leverage situations.

This ALL being said, Akok played 25 minutes and on the season he's averaging like 26 minutes per game. When he got his 2nd foul, it was pretty much time for his normal break. There was only 5 minutes left in the half. The real time he lost minutes was when he picked up his 3rd foul. He was set for a longer shift at that point. He sat out 9 minutes when he probably would've only sat out 3 or 4 in that stretch. BUT, in that time, Indiana literally only scored 2 points (!!!!) and UConn was +5 overall and Sid had good minutes.

We lost the game in 2 stretches. When Gilbert was out in the first half and we didn't know how to run our offense and turned the ball over 8 times in 8 minutes, so Hurley brought him back in with 2 fouls (as advocated as the correct move by people in this thread), and the last 4.5 minutes when we had our starters in. Akok played 10 of those 12.5 minutes.
 
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I don't bet on sports, so no I'm not going to bet you $100 on a specific player's fouls per 40 minutes by the end of the season.

I'm legitimately concerned for any forecasting work you do if you want to take Akok's foul rate in the first 8 (or 9) games of the season in a bubble and define the guy's play from here on out. Honestly, just look at his 3rd foul last night, understand he 100% knew he had to avoid fouls and was coached as such and he still committed that one. Also understand how poor some foul calls are when the defender didn't commit a foul, like the one on Polley where a guy just fell next to him.
 
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When everyone disagrees, it might be time to look in the mirror. All good though, itll be interesting to see if akok can keep it up the full season.
 
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It’s still a small sample size at 9 games. It might be good enough if it takes into account the opponent. You are choosing not to do that, so your statistic, in the absence of context, can be ignored.
 
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It’s still a small sample size at 9 games. It might be good enough if it takes into account the opponent. You are choosing not to do that, so your statistic, in the absence of context, can be ignored.

Bingo. I was typing up a similar reply. He's ignoring the context of the data entirely and pretending it's a representative sample.

We didn't play a team in the top 100 of drawing fouls in the 8 games coming into this game. Indiana is literally 1st in the country at drawing fouls.

It was also a national TV game at a large arena and the refs were calling post play and bumps on drives tight. You should not ignore those factors when considering tactics.
 

ClifSpliffy

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Sid should have gotten more run too. HIs energy in the middle of the second half kept us in the game.
preach brother, preach! mr. wilson came prepared to play.
 

Dream Jobbed 2.0

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6 pts 6 boards 3 blocks pretty solid right now.

he also has the most ridiculous motor I’ve ever. Never lose that passion AA
 
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It was 26-16 when Akok picked up his 2nd with 4:56 left. UConn trailed 29-34 at half -- that's 18-3 after Hurley #autobenched Akok. Indiana scored 32% of their points in that 5 minute window -- all without UConn's best interior defender (one who has shown in a small sample to be an extremely efficient shot blocker without fouling and one who is going to foul significantly less with his wingspan of 7'3'' than your standard college big).

Hurley should have used a timeout, and he kept Al out for too long (kudos for bringing him back in late 1h since he is the only true ball handler), and Vital played bad, and Al played bad, and Adams, and Bouk, and etc. etc.. -- all of that and they still had their chances late in the game! But just because they had a chance late doesn't mean that it worked by pulling them early.

Late game minutes mattering more than early minutes is a myth. And late game minutes are more likely to matter and be "high leverage" when you voluntarily bench your best players early and play with a sub-optimal lineup. Do late game minutes matter if you're up 10? Or 15? Or 20? Or 30? Points in the first half count just the same as points in the 2H or the end of the game.

Would you like your best team on the floor at the end of the game? Yes, that would be ideal. Would you like to be far enough ahead at the end of the game so that Vital dribbling into a double team with 7 seconds left doesn't matter and it doesn't matter who is in? Yes, that matters more. Having a lead is directly correlated with playing your best players and lineups. Saving your best players and lineups for later in the game only reduces your win probability.

If a player has shown a propensity to foul or significantly changes their defensive style when they have 2 in the first, or 3 in the 2nd, then I agree, you cannot play them and a sub who will play more aggressive is a better alternative. Akok has not, and did not show this. Al, has not, and did not show this.

There are ways to "protect" players with multiple fouls -- standard rest and substitution patterns, giving a zone look on defense, stealing a minute or two before a TV timeout, etc. But letting an 18-3 run happen without your best interior defender is downright inexcusable because "he has 2 fouls".

Someone used an example earlier of "what if he got his 3rd at the end of the first half, and 4 at the start of the 2H? He would have to sit for 10 minutes." Okay. You just proved why it never makes sense to #autobench your players in "foul trouble". In that worst case scenario, he still ends up with 25 minutes played -- exactly what Hurley capped his potential minutes played at by sitting him.

Play your best players and let them foul out naturally. Don't manually foul them out yourself. You are literally doing the thing that you are trying to prevent by sitting them.
 
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I have always believed you sit your best players before the half if they have 2 fouls. Calhoun did that too. I would take a page out his playbook if i was you, he won 3 NC’s. You don’t want to risk your best players to be out in the closing minutes of the game.
Like sitting Okafor in 2004 so he was around to score 18 points in the 2nd half.
 
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And if you don't sit him and he picks up #3 in the first half and then 4 early in the 2nd you're screwed. JC is a Hall of Fame coach with multiple championships- national and conference - him sitting players with 2 fouls obviously worked.
 
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There should be no universal rule that if you have 2 fouls you sit.

There are so many variables to consider. The player and their tendency to foul first and foremost. The player’s experience, the other team, how is the game being called etc.

I hate when Calhoun used to do that but it worked out for him in some big moments. But there were times when we did it with bazz or Kemba—2 guys who never fouled out and were smart defenders with foul trouble. On the flip side Jalen Adams fouled out way too often considering he was a senior guard who should have learned time and situation.

Last night taking Gilbert out really hurt us. It put CV in a unfair position to run point guard and did not put him in the position to succeed. Gilbert should have played more and if he is our senior leader needs to learn to play with foul trouble. That was a great game to him to learn to do that.

Akok on the other hand I can understand the concern for a young big to be foul prone. Now, I understand the stats argument that Dave is saying. But coaches probably go by anecdotal experience, and Hurley probable isn’t used to trusting young bigs 9 games into his career to play solid defense without fouling. Hopefully, that changes as he learns that Akok is truly unique in his defensive abilities.
 

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