After WNBA title - USA roster predictions

[UcMiami]

So ... we had a thread after the USA scrimmage. Now we have seen the missing players in action tonight and they were all pretty impressive.
Locks - former Olympians:
G: Sue, Dee and Whalen
W: Angel and Augustus
F: Maya
C: Tina and Fowles

Near locks based on health:
Griner and EDD (she sure looked pretty healthy tonight)

Two spots left which I believe will be 1 PG and one forward:
In the running:
Guard: Vandersloot and McBride (not a PG but I think outplayed the other scrimmage guards)
Forward: Nneka, Dupree (what a finals exhibit!), Stewart (maybe just a year too soon)

And that is leaving out some incredibly talented players including three of the 'in the running' players. It is really amazing the riches that USA basketball has to choose from. And not forgetting the two injured players not in the pool - Catch and Parker.

NB - just realized with Catchings and Parker sidelined, will this be the first team in two decades to not have a Tennessee player on it? Too lazy to check, but it has to be a pretty long time since an USA national team did not have one.

 

[EricLA]

My opinion FWIW...

Team USA is without 4 players - all forwards or wings. Parker, Catch, Swin, Ashja. To me I tend to agree on your locks with 1 addition - Griner.

Sue, Lindsay
Dee, Siemone
Maya, Angel
Tina
Sylvia, Brit

That makes 3. Need 3 more. Because the 4 players missing out this time were not guards at all, I don't know they necessarily need/want another guard. Certainly, IMHO, not a PG since Sue, Dee and Lindsay can all play the 1.

Most likely at this point for the remaining 3... and one thing to keep in mind is all 4 of the players not coming were super versatile. Parker and Jones can play the 3-5. Swin and Catch can play the 3-4.

EDD - if she's healthy there's no one like her
Stewie - she's the most versatile of the remaining players in the pool and has the most upside

I think those 2 are close to locks. I have to disagree with my friend UcMiami in that I simply do not see what the allure of Vandersloot is. There are at least 4 guards I'd take ahead of her in a heartbeat mainly because she's so 1-dimensional. Solid with the ball, a good distributor, but seriously scoring challenged. Simms, Diggins, Robinson and McBride are all guards, the first 3 of them can play the 1 or the 2, and McBride can play the 2 or the 3. Honestly, right now this very moment, I'd take Jefferson over Vandersloot. Well maybe I exaggerate a bit, but just a tiny bit.

The last spot - I think it comes down to one of the guards or Nneka and Dupree. I think Nneka is a better choice simply because she plays defense, and Dupree really does not. Because the Team has so many scorers, I hardly think that would be Dupree's role, even tho she excelled at it in the WNBA finals.

So for me...

Bird, Whalen
Taurasi, Augustus, Simms
Moore, McCaughtry, EDD
Charles, Stewie
Fowles, Griner

I choose Simms for 3 reasons - she's solid at the 1 (much less turnover prone than Diggins and a better ball handler than McBride) but she also can play the 2 and is a very capable scoring guard. If not Simms then Nneka would be my other choice...

 

[hoophuskee]

I'm close to Eric here. But I would have Diggins over Simms and I don't know about EDD and her health so instead of on his list EDD- I go with Nneka. Of course EDD and doctors could say she is okay but one game she is great-- one game she is shot. She should rest and take care of her health.

 

[UcMiami]

Both valid. The reason I keep pushing a guard into the replacements is because in 2016 the three mainstays of USA basketball will be Sue at 36 and DT and Whalen at 34. Sue has missed a lot of basketball over the last three or four years because of injuries. DT and Whalen have been very healthy the last two years, but will have played 12 months a year for the last 12 years. Getting the next generation involved this cycle has been spoken of by Carol and Geno.
I think Sims is great, but she appears to be dealing with a knee issue, I love McBride's game, but the best replacement for Sue right now I think is Vandersloot - she is a heady player with a very good assist/to ratio. In terms of scoring - over the last four year cycle Bird averaged about 6 ppg and Whalen not much more on the national team. Organizing the offense for a group of stars that have limited practice is much more important than any scoring from that spot. (Replacing DT will be much more of an issue.)

 

[01Neaggrad02]

Going back to the 2012 Olympic team... and from watching McCaughtry for years... since her time at Louisville to present day.... I almost would rather she not be on the US team. She is without a doubt talented.... .but the way she carries herself, her facial reactions, and again looking back to 2012 she just did not seem to fit in with the rest of the team or want to fit in. There is an attitude about her that I would not mind not having to watch.
I would have Griner over Folwes any day... I am surprised not to see Diggins listed, she is extremely talented (I wonder if she is a tad selfish at times) I would not be disappointed to see her miss this team/Olympics just because.

 

[UcMiami]

Angel has had a 'bad reputation' from college days through that weirdness in Atlanta a few years ago, but I think she has been a great USA player. She is a rare combination of deadly scorer and defensive menace and has proved to be very willing to sublimate her game to the USA team needs. She has accepted the role of instant energy off the bench and has performed really well. Not sure beyond facial expressions why you wouldn't want her on the team.
Eric - the reason I didn't put Griner in lock status is just because of this eye issue. It seems to be nothing serious, but ...
Hooph - I had been discounting EDD because of her back issues and the Lyme disease, but ... The last WC team included Fowles who was having physical issues through all the warm-up games. The USA team is deep enough to include a phenomenal player who may not be able to go 9 - 9 in games and if she doesn't withdraw herself (which is possible if thats what the doctors tell her is best) then I think her talent deserves to be included.

On Stewart - I love the idea of her following in Maya's footsteps as a college player at the WC, but I don't know if she deserves it more than some of the other options. She has plenty of time ahead of her and it certainly wouldn't hurt Uconn for her to spend the next three weeks on campus. I would be thrilled if she makes the team but not disappointed if she doesn't.

 

[kat0189]

I don't see a case for Vandersloot. 7.9 ppg career average in the WNBA.

In some ways she is like the antithesis of Angel McCoughtry. Angel seems to pout, hardly break a sweat, and throw up ill-advised looking shots. But then you look at the boxscore and she just put up 30 points with a decent FG%. On the other hand, I remember watching Vandersloot against Stanford a few years back and she left everything on the floor, never lost focus, was involved in every play, kept her poker face on for 40 minutes, and did everything she could with precise textbook execution. You would have thought she scored 40 points and put up a quadruple-double, but in reality it was more like 20 points with a so-so FG%.

In some ways Vandersloot is even sharper than Sue, but at the end of the day Sue is an efficient scoring threat while Vandersloot is at best a gamble when it comes to scoring. I like Whalen more than Sue but recognize that she stopped shooting 3's (look at her stats) which could stifle her magic in a slow half court game where the defense is sagging off her. Which is why you still need a Sue. In terms of the future, Diggins and/or Sims are much better investments as they will surpass Vandersloot and probably already have. Vandersloot looks the part of the quintessential floor general but simply is an average player when it comes to putting the ball in the basket herself. The US has so many elite players so there's really no excuse for not having a group of 12 women where each one is capable of being the leading scorer on any given night. Heck, if not for the fact that she's a 5x WNBA defensive POY, I might have even taken Catchings out of consideration anyway to invest in a younger player as there are more potent scorers out there and plenty of rebounders.

 

[sTu]

I think Stewart makes the team.

 

[Zorro]

BG absolutely overwhelmed Big Syl in the playoffs. She has got to be ahead of her on the selection chart at this point. Also, this will undoubtedly be Sue's last hurrah, but I think she makes the team. They need her smarts.

 

[hoophuskee]

UC – as far as the guards I think we need one guard to learn because as you say Bird has been hurt so often you don’t know how capable she’ll be 2 years from now. I think you need at least one young guard. Whether it is Diggins or Sims or anyone else – I think as you've pointed our guards are old – I’d give one a shot – learning experience. We hear the glowing comment made by Sims of Geno. Last night I heard Diggins speaking highly of her learning experience. I think you need that – one guard for that learning experience.

Regarding EDD and Fowles similarity of making team in past – I thought Fowles made it in part was our “fear” – maybe not fear but “concern”- of Australia inside. Tina Charles was 23 and was our only other really big post? In regards to EDD – there is no one opposing team that one can point to and say “we need her because of them” unless I'm mistaken about that. Of course you can't take teams lightly but that's not my point. I think EDD needs the rest. However if she does make it, I’m with you in regards to Stewie not making it.

But if no EDD – I lean toward Stewie because she is “different” than the others. I look at EDD and Stewie as the same in a manner of speaking and one is battling injuries and health while the other is young. I don’t feel we need both at this point in their careers but they are both extremely unique imo so I'd want one that can shoot 3’s with size, block shots, and pass the ball well from multiple positions/circumstances – thus I lean toward Stewie and resting EDD.

And I do agree with you EDD is more deserving but I think both her and Team USA Basketball might (I emphasize “might – so please don’t take this like I’m arguing with you. If she makes it- great!!)) look at her as saying “its best I continue to focus on my health now, I’ll be on the Olympics in 2016.” ). UCM – I have no idea of her health I’m just making a wild guess as I think we all our. As much as I’m not her biggest fan but I am concerned for her (some of us half empty other half full), when it comes to what she’s dealing with I’m just shaking my head and saying “sit down, rest and take care of yourself girl.” Others could have a different philosophy outlook and I understand their points – yours as well. EDD is definitely deserving!

 

[MilfordHusky]

If Angel makes the team, I think her attitude will be fine. If it's not, Geno will sit her ass.

Angel wants to win badly, but usually tries to do TOO much. On this team, she can find her role, as she did in 2012. I look for a positive contribution, good attitude, and better facial expressions and body language.

 

[MilfordHusky]

BG absolutely overwhelmed Big Syl in the playoffs. She has got to be ahead of her on the selection chart at this point. Also, this will undoubtedly be Sue's last hurrah, but I think she makes the team. They need her smarts.

I think Sue's last hurrah will be in Rio--with her 12th FIBA Gold medal. A nice even dozen.

 

[Gate81]

Funny how Nneka led the team the other night with 26 pts and 12 rebounds and everyone considered her a lock, but now she's barely been mentioned less than 48 hours later. This is a tough selection year but I think the team needs Nneka AND Stewie AND 1 of the young guards.

 

[RadyLady]

Going back to the 2012 Olympic team... and from watching McCaughtry for years... since her time at Louisville to present day.... I almost would rather she not be on the US team. She is without a doubt talented.... .but the way she carries herself, her facial reactions, and again looking back to 2012 she just did not seem to fit in with the rest of the team or want to fit in. There is an attitude about her that I would not mind not having to watch....

I felt the same way about Parker, too. They won anyway. What we see may not necessarily be what is actually happening, although the shenanigans with the WNBA's Dream involving Angel afterwards certainly could make one sit up and take notice of your point.

 

[RadyLady]

Funny how Nneka led the team the other night with 26 pts and 12 rebounds and everyone considered her a lock, but now she's barely been mentioned less than 48 hours later. This is a tough selection year but I think the team needs Nneka AND Stewie AND 1 of the young guards.

We live in a knee-jerk reaction soundbite kind of world my friend. The word "evaluation" is becoming extinct in favor of snap judgements based on very little data or a small amount of data... At least for us armchair coaches that is...

 

[EricLA]

I'm close to Eric here. But I would have Diggins over Simms and I don't know about EDD and her health so instead of on his list EDD- I go with Nneka. Of course EDD and doctors could say she is okay but one game she is great-- one game she is shot. She should rest and take care of her health.

Can't go wrong with her either - My problem with Skylar is while she's a terrific scorer, she has trouble handling the ball, something team USA needs. Bottom line they don't REALLY need another guard on the team, but we will see soon enough!

 

[wallman]

In full agreement, Diggins dribbling looked very stiff, could be nerves, but seemed like the vets were able to predict what she was going to do, hence the turnovers.

 

[kat0189]

Funny how Nneka led the team the other night with 26 pts and 12 rebounds and everyone considered her a lock, but now she's barely been mentioned less than 48 hours later. This is a tough selection year but I think the team needs Nneka AND Stewie AND 1 of the young guards.

I'm def not sleeping on Nneka. Thought she should have been on the '12 Olympic team, frankly. I knew she would have to work her tail off in camp to have a shot b/c USA Basketball loves height so in this context she is undersized for her position. Plus, she gets overshadowed a bit playing second fiddle to Candace Parker during the WNBA season. Apparently she knew it too and did everything she could to build her case in that scrimmage. At times, USA Basketball has turned their nose up at post players in that 6'2" range like Glory Johnson, Candice Dupree, Rebekkah Brunson, Crystal Langhorne, and Sophia Young. So Nneka will have to continue to show out to make the roster, but I think she can do it.

 

[JoePgh]

BG absolutely overwhelmed Big Syl in the playoffs. She has got to be ahead of her on the selection chart at this point. Also, this will undoubtedly be Sue's last hurrah, but I think she makes the team. They need her smarts.

Who said that Griner and Fowles are mutually exclusive? I fully expect both to make the team, with Griner as the starting center and Syl as her backup. Tina will be the starting 4, backed up by Nneka and either Stewart or Dupree.

I am assuming that EDD will not be chosen for medical reasons, or will not make herself available. Regardless of how she looked in one game (after a 72-hour rest), you cannot expect her to play so many games on consecutive days as will be required in Turkey and be effective.

My predictions:

Center: Griner, Fowles
PF: Charles, N. Ogwumike
SF: Moore, Augustus
SG: Taurasi, McCaughtrey
PG: Bird, Whalen, and young PG to be named later (but Briann January has impressed)

12th player: Dupree or Stewart, to be determined at the last possible moment

That includes all 8 of the 2012 Olympians who are available, plus Griner, Nneka, young PG, and Dupree-or-Stewart.

I say again that some young PG needs to be on the team (in preference to McBride) to provide insurance against the substantial possibility that either Sue or Lindsey (and possibly both) will be injured or ineffective by the 2016 Olympics. Someone needs to have the full experience of extended international competition to assume the PG role in that case.

 

[Zorro]

I think Sue's last hurrah will be in Rio--with her 12th FIBA Gold medal. A nice even dozen.

I sincerely hope that you areright.

 

[MilfordHusky]

I sincerely hope that you areright.

Book it, Danno!

 

[UConnCat]

I'm def not sleeping on Nneka. Thought she should have been on the '12 Olympic team, frankly. I knew she would have to work her tail off in camp to have a shot b/c USA Basketball loves height so in this context she is undersized for her position. Plus, she gets overshadowed a bit playing second fiddle to Candace Parker during the WNBA season. Apparently she knew it too and did everything she could to build her case in that scrimmage. At times, USA Basketball has turned their nose up at post players in that 6'2" range like Glory Johnson, Candice Dupree, Rebekkah Brunson, Crystal Langhorne, and Sophia Young. So Nneka will have to continue to show out to make the roster, but I think she can do it.

I don't think it's turning their nose up at these players as much as it's a recognition that the type of players you mention are traditional American power forwards which don't exist for the most part in international play. The style of play at FIBA events is unlike that played in the WNBA. USA BB and Geno are looking for versatile forwards who can defend on the perimeter and also score from the perimeter as well as inside.