After Watching Canada-France, A More Detailed Assessment of Ms. Nurse

[UcMiami]

All I'm going to say...is Morgan Tuck has not showed who she really is...she was at one time ranked number 1 in her class before her knee injury. She got to UConn after sitting out significant time during her high school career. She barely got into game shape when she got injured again... She has had significant time to recover this time...people will be amazed at what a great player Tuck is... My assessment of the change between last year's center and back-up and this years will be almost imperceptible by mid-season. Kia will be amazingly improved as she realizes that she is the starting center and she cannot defer to someone else... Tuck will be a far better back-up this year than Kia was last year... Folks trust me...it is going to be a fun year to be a husky fan...and if there are any weaknesses in the Husky team they won't come via Kia Stokes and Morgan Tuck. Here is a couple fair questions...how many Division one teams would love to have either one of those players on their roster? How many Division 1 teams would Kia and / or Morgan start for?

Well ... I absolutely agree about Morgan's potential though projecting anyone who has spent so much of the last 5 years injured is not an exact science - I believe it has been five years since she was able to play a full season injury free. And while I have high hopes for Kiah ('h' please) and she is more athletic and a better jumper than Dolson - you are talking about replacing a four year starter who averaged about 12 ppg in her career and had over 250 assists her last two years with a 3 year bench player who has averaged around 4 ppg and has a total of 72 assists in her career. Whatever happens by mid-season the Uconn offense is going to look radically different from the past few years where it all flowed through the unique passing skills of Dolson.
As for Morgan succeeding in a defensive role as center - she is a very good defender but I am not aware of her spending a lot of time defensively in the role of center - she was quite successful in guarding Stewart in HS but Stewart was a forward and Morgan was significantly stronger than her while giving up 2" and some added arm length. Geno could design defensive game plans against even centers like Griner where Dolson/Stokes were primarily responsible for one on one defense. With either Stewart or Morgan replacing Stokes at center defensively when Stokes takes a breather, I doubt he can continue with that plan.
I am pretty confident Uconn will repeat as campions this year - I am just being realistic in identifying the center position as a weakness on the 2014 team - there is a reason Uconn has been going strong after centers the last couple of years and that a lot of discussion on recruiting here has focused on the need for more height.

 

[Bgillon]

in comparing KN to Faris, don't forget Geno said Faris was the best athlete on the team! That's where Joe's questioning of KN's athleticism seems odd.

 

[cferraro04]

I am also being realistic in that I do not believe that the Center position will be a weakness. Kiah ("h" included) is one of those players who has the ability to perform...you have seen glimpses of it over the years and there were stretches where she was brilliant and where she was consistent on the boards and looked for her shot more than she had in previous years. Kiah's body is much more defined than Stephanie was...she has a WBA body...it has always been what was going on above the shoulders. Kiah knows the center position is hers, she will get significantly more minutes than in the past. Take a look at her points, rebounds per minute and if that doesn't excite you I don't know what else to say. Yeah, Morgan has been a sort of bad luck kid but I see no reason to believe that she won't be able to play a full season...She has had her injury repaired, it has been cleaned up, she has had adequate time to rehab, she is hungry, she also knows it is her time. Call me an optimist but I think the Center position will certainly miss the big girl, her passing from the center position was a luxury that few teams have... McCarville was a great passing center, Ruth Riley was a good passing center as was Stamford's Jane Appel but, these kinds of players at the 5 are unusual in the college game. So, it would foolish to believe that we won't miss Stephanie...but, my gut tells me that barring any injury to either Kiah or Morgan our front court will be fine.

When discussing the front court of UConn because of the versatility of players you have to include KML and Breanna Stewart. We must keep in mind because KML is the type of player she is...a good all-around player who does much more than just shoot the ball. KML is a good rebounding forward, can post up. Stewart is also a player who will will help the statistics of the front court players...If worse comes to worse...Breanna can and will play the 5...she has already said that she wants to improve in the post with her back to the basket. Were we deeper last year than this year...well sort of...we did have three post players...Stephanie, the under-performing Kiah Stokes and the injured Morgan Tuck...so, really what is different this year....our margin of error should one of them get injured is smaller. My prediction for UConn's front court this season is as follows:

Last year:

Stephanie Dolson - 12.5 points; 9.3 rebounds; 2.33 blocks per game in 32.3 minutes per game (40 games)
Morgan Tuck - 7.5 points; 2.4 rebounds; 14.5 minutes per game (8 games)
Kiah Stokes - 4.5 points; 7.1 rebounds; 2.28 blocks per game in 18.5 minutes per game (39 games)
KML - 13.4 points; 5.4 rebounds; 29 minutes per game (28 games)
Breanna Stewart - 19.4 points; 8.1 rebounds; 2,75 blocks per game in 30.5 minutes (40 games)

This year based on per minute play with no improvement:

KML, Morgan and Kiah will get more minutes...I can see Kiah getting 30 minutes per game; Morgan getting 20 minutes per game. KML will probably play about 32 minutes per game, Breanna will probably play about 32 minutes per game.

Kiah Stokes, if she performs at the same level as last year with no improvement for 30 minutes a game. Based on her per minute production she would average: 7.3 points; 11.51 rebounds; 3.7 blocks
Morgan Tuck, if she performs at the same level as last year with no improvement for 20 minutes a game. Based on her per minute production she would average: 10.34 points; 3.31 rebounds.
KML, if she performs at the same level as last year with no improvement for 32 minutes a game. Based on her per minute production she would average: 15.31 points; 6.17 rebounds
Stewart, if she performs at the same level as last year with no improvement for 32 minutes a game. Based on her per minute production she would average: 20.34 points; 8.5 rebounds; 2.9 blocks.

So, based on per minute play with no improvement:

2013-2014 season: 57,30 points; 32.3 rebounds; 7.36 blocks
2014-2015 season: 53.29 points; 29.49 rebounds; 6.6 blocks

Based on per minute play with projected modest improvement

Now, let's assume some mild improvement due to improved health and physical shape of KML; improved health of Morgan Tuck, Kiah Stokes senior year and leadership role; Breanna Stewart just plain off the charts ability that keeps improving, not to mention her World Championship Team experience playing overseas with USA basketball.

Projected statistics for 2014-1015 season

Kiah Stokes ("h") included - 10 points; 12.5 rebounds; 4 blocks
Morgan Tuck - 12 points; 5 rebounds
KML - 18 points; 7 rebounds
Breanna Stewart - 22 points; 10 rebounds, 3.5 blocks

Projected combined statistics for 2014-2015 season: 62 points; 34.5 rebounds; 7.5 blocks

Projected Differential per category:

Points = +4.7
Rebounds = +2.2
Blocks = +.9

 

[watanabe]

Hah! Must be a slow news day.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Hah! Must be a slow news day.

You got anything better?

 

[RadyLady]

Well ... I absolutely agree about Morgan's potential though projecting anyone who has spent so much of the last 5 years injured is not an exact science - I believe it has been five years since she was able to play a full season injury free. And while I have high hopes for Kiah ('h' please) and she is more athletic and a better jumper than Dolson - you are talking about replacing a four year starter who averaged about 12 ppg in her career and had over 250 assists her last two years with a 3 year bench player who has averaged around 4 ppg and has a total of 72 assists in her career. Whatever happens by mid-season the Uconn offense is going to look radically different from the past few years where it all flowed through the unique passing skills of Dolson.
As for Morgan succeeding in a defensive role as center - she is a very good defender but I am not aware of her spending a lot of time defensively in the role of center - she was quite successful in guarding Stewart in HS but Stewart was a forward and Morgan was significantly stronger than her while giving up 2" and some added arm length. Geno could design defensive game plans against even centers like Griner where Dolson/Stokes were primarily responsible for one on one defense. With either Stewart or Morgan replacing Stokes at center defensively when Stokes takes a breather, I doubt he can continue with that plan.
I am pretty confident Uconn will repeat as campions this year - I am just being realistic in identifying the center position as a weakness on the 2014 team - there is a reason Uconn has been going strong after centers the last couple of years and that a lot of discussion on recruiting here has focused on the need for more height.

I don't know Miami - It appears though that you are straddling the fence on this issue, perhaps covering your bets. We have three folks possibly four who are capable of handling this position for some minutes in games: Stokes of course at 6'3", Tuck at 6'2", Kaleena whom we have seen step in and do some work in the paint in the past - she is strong though 5'11", and Stewey at 6'4". That's a lot of height. And we have had years in the past where we had roughly the same personnel, and they were championship years. The first that comes to mind is 1995 with Lobo, Wolter, and Jamelle granted Kara was a huge presence at 6'7"

The second and third that come to mind are the two years with Tina where we won the championship - 2009 and 2010, both with Maya Meghan Gardler, and Kaili McClaren.

Granted We have not seen the full force of Tuck given her injuries, but what I saw when she played with her injuries was pretty good, and she can shoot the three as well, and Kiah could still be considered a question mark - yes she shined in her minutes last year, yet will that carry forth in a(n) (assumed) starting role this year. It remains to be seen. And yes, the offense did run through Stef at the high post, but that is something that didn't always happen at UConn, so that likely will change as it is nothing new to Geno and the coaches at least. I think that the last time we had a post with that talent was when McClaren was on the roster.

Still we have some height, no more or less than past championship years. It is up to Geno to put the pieces of this year's puzzle together. We will be rated #1 at the start of the season, and it will be interesting, as always to see how the season plays out.

 

[VAMike23]

I think Stokes is the key cog in the machine this year. If she takes a big step forward in her consistency and production over more minutes (she's always been excellent on a per-minute basis but this does not always translate), we should be unstoppable.

If she does not, and we have to rely on center-by-committee, then I think there will be some nights when we don't look all that great, more than just the normal ups and downs that college teams will always have. Even in this scenario it's hard to see us losing more than a game or two but it's at least a possibility. Crazy things do happen.

A dominant Stokes--at least by year-end, a la Tina her JR year--means this squad would renew the conversation re: great UCONN teams.

 

[Kibitzer]

Height is important, but not the only factor of importance.

Take Kaleena, for example. She reminds me a lot of Charles Barkley (on court only) -- she has a very sturdy build and is really strong. When she posts another player up, she is immovable; when she boxes another player out, they stay boxed out; and when she gets her mitts on the ball, she is as tenacious as a Doberman with a T-bone. (For you real old-timers, think Wes Unseld.)

Players named Russell, Rodman and Faris snagged far more rebounds than many taller players because they outleaped or outhustled the other guys.

Is height important? Of course. But don't forget those other attributes, especially players who seem to have "a nose for the ball."

 

[JRRRJ]

Last year:

Stephanie Dolson - 12.5 points; 9.3 rebounds; 2.33 blocks per game in 32.3 minutes per game (40 games)
Morgan Tuck - 7.5 points; 2.4 rebounds; 14.5 minutes per game (8 games)
Kiah Stokes - 4.5 points; 7.1 rebounds; 2.28 blocks per game in 18.5 minutes per game (39 games)
KML - 13.4 points; 5.4 rebounds; 29 minutes per game (28 games)
Breanna Stewart - 19.4 points; 8.1 rebounds; 2,75 blocks per game in 30.5 minutes (40 games)

If you just look at the toughest part of last year's schedule: 11/11/13 Stanford to 12/22/13 Cal, which includes the 2 games Kiah started, the numbers for those 11 games look like this:
MPG: 20.4 PPG: 7.2 RPG: 8.3 BPG: 3.0

Extended to your 30 MPG assumption:
MPG: 30 PPG: 10.6 RPG: 12.2 BPG: 4.4

For another tough stretch (the NCAA tourney), here's what we get for actual numbers:
MPG: 16.8 PPG: 3.5 RPG: 6.8 BPG: 1.3

And, those numbers for 30 min would be:
MPG: 30 PPG: 6.24 RPG: 12.2 BPG: 2.4

For me, the most enjoyable part of watching Kiah last year was knowing that she would have a rebound within 20 seconds after being inserted into the game for the first time.

Barring the injury bug, I think we're OK at on the front line. Brianna had a better assist/TO performance than Stephanie last year with almost as many assists. With her holding the high post I'm asserting this year will be even better in that regard.

 

[rvwsleep]

Who plays center and how well they play it will only have a determination on the outcome of the 4 or 5 out of conference games UConn has against top opponents and then again in the NCAA tournament (and even in the NCAA's it probably won't matter until the 3rd round). It will not make any difference who plays center in any of the conference games. As long as Stewart, Stokes and Tuck are healthy for the NCAA's, I like their chances.

 

[DaddyChoc]

Who plays center and how well they play it will only have a determination on the outcome of the 4 or 5 out of conference games UConn has against top opponents and then again in the NCAA tournament (and even in the NCAA's it probably won't matter until the 3rd round). It will not make any difference who plays center in any of the conference games. As long as Stewart, Stokes and Tuck are healthy for the NCAA's, I like their chances.

MoJett can play center and UConn will still win

 

[UcMiami]

First of all I think Kiah will shine this year. Breanna is super, and Morgan if truly healthy all year will also be an amazing player. KML would be a NPOY candidate if not for her teammate as well, but as a defensive center is a non starter in my mind - yes she can post up guards and wings on offense, but you never saw her posting up power forwards or centers, and that really is what is under discussion.
As for history - 1995 and 2000-2002 (probably the best example of smaller center teams) were different eras in WCBB - the influx of talent and coaching into WBB over the last 15 years has been immense. For the Tina Charles era - you left out Heather Buck who was essential in a few instances where Tina struggled or was in foul trouble in eating up minutes on defense. And while I expect Kiah to be very good I am not so optimistic to imagine she will be in the conversation for first team AA or NPOY as Tina was in her last two years.
I am really not expecting very many teams to be able to challenge Uconn's talent, but that is never the question for us - it is what the teams good enough to get to the FF and occasionally the teams in the elite eight are capable of. SC may be young, but they were a #1 seed last year, loss nothing to graduation, are very well coached and added a very good freshman class with more height. TN is not coached very well but have a very good center and some other talent. ND has very good coaching and a lot of talent, but are also dealing with the loss of their true center. I don't know who else is out there.
SC may be the biggest contender and will have had the advantage of a regular season game against Uconn as either confidence boost or motivation or both.
I still think Uconn wins through but I am also not head in the sand about our front line - Morgan played eight games last year and had a surgical procedure that does not have an unblemished record of success and might take quite a while to round into her AA form. She just started basketball activities this past month after not touching a ball for 8 months. Kiah has not played more than about 20 minutes in any college game and we are projecting close to a double double from her. (And Kiah has had a history of small injuries throughout her three years) Those are pretty big question marks for a front runner.

As for cfer's projections - those minutes plus presumably 30 minutes for MoJeff leave only 56 minutes for the other 5 scholarship players which may be a little light for a yearly average though probably correct for tightly contested games.

 

[winlots]

Foolish though it may be, it's one of the most enjoyable things to do on a sports forum.

INT: Couldn't agree with you more. (Starting to feel just a bit of concern about that, as I find it is becoming a bit of a habit recently )

 

[RadyLady]

First of all I think Kiah will shine this year. Breanna is super, and Morgan if truly healthy all year will also be an amazing player. KML would be a NPOY candidate if not for her teammate as well, but as a defensive center is a non starter in my mind - yes she can post up guards and wings on offense, but you never saw her posting up power forwards or centers, and that really is what is under discussion.
As for history - 1995 and 2000-2002 (probably the best example of smaller center teams) were different eras in WCBB - the influx of talent and coaching into WBB over the last 15 years has been immense. For the Tina Charles era - you left out Heather Buck who was essential in a few instances where Tina struggled or was in foul trouble in eating up minutes on defense. And while I expect Kiah to be very good I am not so optimistic to imagine she will be in the conversation for first team AA or NPOY as Tina was in her last two years.
I am really not expecting very many teams to be able to challenge Uconn's talent, but that is never the question for us - it is what the teams good enough to get to the FF and occasionally the teams in the elite eight are capable of. SC may be young, but they were a #1 seed last year, loss nothing to graduation, are very well coached and added a very good freshman class with more height. TN is not coached very well but have a very good center and some other talent. ND has very good coaching and a lot of talent, but are also dealing with the loss of their true center. I don't know who else is out there.
SC may be the biggest contender and will have had the advantage of a regular season game against Uconn as either confidence boost or motivation or both.
I still think Uconn wins through but I am also not head in the sand about our front line - Morgan played eight games last year and had a surgical procedure that does not have an unblemished record of success and might take quite a while to round into her AA form. She just started basketball activities this past month after not touching a ball for 8 months. Kiah has not played more than about 20 minutes in any college game and we are projecting close to a double double from her. (And Kiah has had a history of small injuries throughout her three years) Those are pretty big question marks for a front runner.

As for cfer's projections - those minutes plus presumably 30 minutes for MoJeff leave only 56 minutes for the other 5 scholarship players which may be a little light for a yearly average though probably correct for tightly contested games.

Kaleena is much the same as Maya was - both excellent shooters, however Geno expanded their games and had them add post moves. When we have gone small, particularly in Kaleena's sophmore year, she certainly did some work against bigger players.

I did give Heather some thought, how could I not? But she did not play significant minutes or have a significant impact on any game save 1 - and that was against Baylor. She may have been on the roster, but in terms of game player rotation, she was not in the mix, not by a long shot, particularly when we got into conference play.

Again you say that we are going to go all the way yet you still hedge your bets with your list of misgivings about the front court.

 

[Huskies Rule]

I think Stokes is the key cog in the machine this year. If she takes a big step forward in her consistency and production over more minutes (she's always been excellent on a per-minute basis but this does not always translate), we should be unstoppable.

If she does not, and we have to rely on center-by-committee, then I think there will be some nights when we don't look all that great, more than just the normal ups and downs that college teams will always have. Even in this scenario it's hard to see us losing more than a game or two but it's at least a possibility. Crazy things do happen.

A dominant Stokes--at least by year-end, a la Tina her JR year--means this squad would renew the conversation re: great UCONN teams.

I couldn't agree more. Mo, Stewie and KML have demonstrably greater skill sets, but absolutely nobody on the floor will have a bigger impact on the team's ultimate success and chances for a third consecutive National Championship than Stokes. If she has worked diligently this offseason and continues to build on the confidence she surely gained during her fine junior campaign, then 12 pts/14 rebounds/4-5 blocks per game is well within her- and I believe those numbers WILL result in NC#3 (Summitt +2)

 

[UcMiami]

I couldn't agree more. Mo, Stewie and KML have demonstrably greater skill sets, but absolutely nobody on the floor will have a bigger impact on the team's ultimate success and chances for a third consecutive National Championship than Stokes. If she has worked diligently this offseason and continues to build on the confidence she surely gained during her fine junior campaign, then 12 pts/14 rebounds/4-5 blocks per game is well within her- and I believe those numbers WILL result in NC#3 (Summitt +2)

Just FYI - you are expecting Kiah to set the single season Uconn records for both blocks and rebounds which currently stand at: 12.8 rebound/game and a total of 131 blocks. When Tina set the total rebounds record at 372 in 39 games she averaged under 10 per game. I think she is going to have a good year, but am not quite ready to rewrite the record books.
And I guess I am hedging, or being realistic - I would like to see Morgan play 10-15 games on her surgically repaired knee before expecting her to be 100% good as new, and Kiah to play the same number before anointing her the second coming of Charles and Lobo combined.

 

[hjoerring]

If you compare Faris and Hayes, it will just depend if you like Defense of Offense more. Hayes was better offensively than Faris. 11.7 ppg vs 7.2 ppg. A better pct shooter (2 and 3 pts), almost twice as FTs as Faris. Fairly close on Assists 483 vs 545.

Defensively though Faris has the better numbers. More Rebounds, Steals, blocks. Not by a huge margin though.

So it pretty much depends on what you like. More offense or more defense.

Not sure that we can get to where we want to go with your strategy here. (see Kibitzer) Faris may have done better in the areas you mentioned, but what would the benefits be for Hayes and/or Moore to shadow the opponent best player? Or to hit the boards all the time? What we know about Hayes and Moore are that they are 2 very good defensive players and rebounders, today. These traits were garnered at Uconn. Interestingly, Hayes went very late in the draft, so it might be worthwhile to take a look at her today along with the players who were in her class and were drafted. In the NBA Faris would be a journey(wo)man. The WNBA lacks the resources (money + teams) to carry and develop a player as her. One really have to be a scorer- even if you are next to last coming off the bench.

 

[meyers7]

I don't know Miami - It appears though that you are straddling the fence on this issue, perhaps covering your bets. We have three folks possibly four who are capable of handling this position for some minutes in games: Stokes of course at 6'3", Tuck at 6'2", Kaleena whom we have seen step in and do some work in the paint in the past - she is strong though 5'11", and Stewey at 6'4". That's a lot of height. And we have had years in the past where we had roughly the same personnel, and they were championship years. The first that comes to mind is 1995 with Lobo, Wolter, and Jamelle granted Kara was a huge presence at 6'7"

The second and third that come to mind are the two years with Tina where we won the championship - 2009 and 2010, both with Maya Meghan Gardler, and Kaili McClaren.

Granted We have not seen the full force of Tuck given her injuries, but what I saw when she played with her injuries was pretty good, and she can shoot the three as well, and Kiah could still be considered a question mark - yes she shined in her minutes last year, yet will that carry forth in a(n) (assumed) starting role this year. It remains to be seen. And yes, the offense did run through Stef at the high post, but that is something that didn't always happen at UConn, so that likely will change as it is nothing new to Geno and the coaches at least. I think that the last time we had a post with that talent was when McClaren was on the roster.

Still we have some height, no more or less than past championship years. It is up to Geno to put the pieces of this year's puzzle together. We will be rated #1 at the start of the season, and it will be interesting, as always to see how the season plays out.

hmmm, this post sound eerily familiar.

 

[RadyLady]

hmmm, this post sound eerily familiar.

You snooze you lose

 

[meyers7]

Yada yada yada.

Are we going to be deep in the post this year? No. Are we going to have a very good frontcourt this year? Yes. Stewart, KML and anybody is going to be a very good frontcourt. If Stokes can put up 8/8 and her usual blocks we'll be fantastic.


Is it going to matter? No. When you have the triumvirate of Stewart, KML and Jefferson it's not gonna matter too much who else is on the floor with them. You are looking at 2 NPOY candidates and most likely the Lieberman Award winner. (If all goes well.)

Along with the fact that I don't think our competition is going to be as good this year, this should be a good year for UCONN. Not really worried about it this year. If we DON'T go undefeated and win the NC, I'll be surprised. Anything can happen, but it would have to be kind of some crazy goings on to not end up that way.

And then 2015-2016, holy jeebus, look out.

 

[meyers7]

You snooze you lose

Don't like losing, but I do love snoozing.

 

[hoophuskee]

I liked Joe's comments and I like Kia's game. I think she is going to be a very good player as long as she can shoot pretty good. With what UCONN has and what is coming in, we don't need a scorer. We need goo decsion makers. Her body is strong that she won't get bumped off her dribble or pushed around. She seems like she makes very good decisions whcih now with players KLS and NC coming, her style is terrific to have. Our team doesn't need to be five super scorers. Kia imo is a very good player. Not a superstar - but very good. When you have that along with the talent we have, damn glad to have her.