Here's a recap of what has happened since the 02/28 had the following rankings:
#1 South Carolina (Greensboro, NC)
#2 Stanford (Spokane, WA)
#3 North Carolina State (Bridgeport, CT)
#4 Louisville (Wichita, KS)
#5 Baylor
#6 Iowa State
#7 LSU
#8 Michigan
#9 UConn
#10 Texas
That night, Baylor drubbed ISU in Ames.
As other conference tourneys began last week, Louisville, LSU, and MIchigan were upset in their conference tournament quarterfinals.
And, while the committee hasn't had another reveal, Charlie Creme has Baylor potentially moving ahead of Louisville if they win the Big 12 tourney. He has UConn moving up to #6 overall. He only dropped ISU to #8. He kept LSU at #7; moved Michigan to #9 and kept Texas at #10.
Part of the reason for Creme's placement is because teams from the same conference in the Top 16 cannot be placed in the same regional. So, LSU can't be in #1 South Carolina's regional; so, they can't be #8/9; have to be #7 (or 10). He couldn't really move Texas up to #9 because he has ISU has #8; so, had to separate the two Big 12 teams into different regions.
As of the latest Big 12 tournament games, Baylor picked up another Q1 win against Oklahoma (who Creme still believes to be a Top 16 seed); that makes Baylor's record against NET Q1 teams
8-4.
Meanwhile, Texas picked up 2 more Q1 wins against Kansas State and Iowa State which makes their record against NET Q1 teams
10-4. That win total is fourth highest in the country. That's now Texas' fourth win against the Top 10 (@Stanford, and 3 against ISU). If Texas beats Baylor tomorrow, that will be
11 Q1 wins, and
5 wins against the Top 10. So, Texas has the potential to vault from #10. How high? That's up to the committee. I could see anywhere from #4 to #7.
The NET Nitty Gritty Report for 2022 NCAA Women's College Basketball. This Is a Duplication of the Report Used by the Tournament Selection Committee to Determine At-Large Teams with Quadrants
www.warrennolan.com
If Baylor beats Texas, then Baylor and Louisville are 4/5 or 5/4. Texas would be 6 or 7, IMO. Unfortunately for Texas, if LSU is ranked #8 by the committee, we might get the procedural bump down to #8 in order to avoid having LSU in #1 South Carolina's region. If the committee has Texas at 7, Iowa State at 8, and LSU at #9, then they'd give the procedural bump to LSU down to #10.
All speculation, of course! Things will either clear up pretty easily tomorrow (if Baylor wins) or get more complicated for the committee if Texas wins.