Adjusted D Down to #41

[gars44]

To state the obvious which has probably already been stated. Our defense is a whole lot better with Clingan playing.

With him, we're national title contenders. Without him, we're longshots. The second weekend may be our ceiling

TRUE

 

[Drame]

The issue is that we played teams that are considered very bad and then underperformed the expectations. You don’t get credit for beating a really bad team if you couldn’t cover the spread. These models are all stat based and the numbers from those games don’t flatter us compared to what we’ve done versus better opposition.

We play too many of these games. Theyre bad to watch, bad for team development, bad for our budget.

 

[Tyler2Rings]

Yes, some of the models like Torvik take that into account and ignore the late game walk on minutes when a game is considered analytically over

Maybe Torvik or KenPom track this already, correct me if they do...

For these blowout buy games, it would be more valuable to know when a game is "analytically over." For example if Team A runs another team out of the gym with 12 minutes to go, that should bump their metrics more than Team B who reaches that threshold with 8 minutes to go. Even if Team A puts in walkons and ends up winning by 18 while Team B leaves starters in and runs it up to 30

 

[ctchamps]

We play too many of these games. Theyre bad to watch, bad for team development, bad for our budget.

Bad for team development? Not sure I can say this. Hurley needed to integrate three new players into the starting lineup and develop depth with only one player, Hassan, having significant experience as a role player. And yet we’re #1 with a better record than last season at this juncture.

Bad for budget? We’re selling out not only our arenas but opposition arenas as well. Prices for tickets have risen. Yes it’s partially due to the NC hype. But that only carries into this season for a short time unless this season is successful.

Bad to watch? I partially agree with you. But losing is typically worse to watch and I personally loathed watching the Providence game to any of those cupcakes including Missouri Valley State.

 

[auror]

Maybe Torvik or KenPom track this already, correct me if they do...

For these blowout buy games, it would be more valuable to know when a game is "analytically over." For example if Team A runs another team out of the gym with 12 minutes to go, that should bump their metrics more than Team B who reaches that threshold with 8 minutes to go. Even if Team A puts in walkons and ends up winning by 18 while Team B leaves starters in and runs it up to 30

This is what Haslametrics does. He basically ends the game for scoring margin when it goes analytically final.

Torvik adjusts final margin based on the average lead throughout.

KenPom just weights mismatch games less than other games. The others might do this too.

 

[yungdowork]

This is what Haslametrics does. He basically ends the game for scoring margin when it goes analytically final.

Torvik adjusts final margin based on the average lead throughout.

KenPom just weights mismatch games less than other games. The others might do this too.

Haha, this is the funny thing about all the metrics. There are legitimate arguments that all 3 of these options could be most useful, depending on what you're trying to ascertain.

 

[Tenspro2002]

According to Torvik the game against Mississippi Valley State was about as bad as our loss to seton hall and we won by 34. If we’re gonna play teams that bad we gotta win 50 plus I guess

This is why one's exact NET/KenPom/whatever ranking is less meaningful than one's record against teams in certain quality bands.

We are tied with Purdue for the best Q1 record (8-2) and undefeated in other games. That's what should matter.

 

[JohnnyJr]

This is why one's exact NET/KenPom/whatever ranking is less meaningful than one's record against teams in certain quality bands.

We are tied with Purdue for the best Q1 record (8-2) and undefeated in other games. That's what should matter.

We’re up to 3 in the NET now so our numbers are catching up

 

[Travelman6]

I'd really like to see more Yale, CCSU, Sacred Heart, Quinnipiac and Fairfield in the ooc, make those the extent of the "cupcakes", all local and building up CT basketball.

 

[yungdowork]

I'd really like to see more Yale, CCSU, Sacred Heart, Quinnipiac and Fairfield in the ooc, make those the extent of the "cupcakes", all local and building up CT basketball.

I know the last few years we've pretty deliberately had several games vs HBCUs (MVSU, Arkansas Pine-Bluff, Delaware State, UMES, in the last few years). It seems like we're trying to fit a few of those games in and then one or two games vs some regional teams like New Hampshire, Binghamton, Stonehill, Manhattan, etc.

 

[Samoo]

I'd really like to see more Yale, CCSU, Sacred Heart, Quinnipiac and Fairfield in the ooc, make those the extent of the "cupcakes", all local and building up CT basketball.

Yale every other year alternating with other Ivys, one CT MAAC, one CT NEC and alternate UMASS/URI every year. That would be a pretty good 4-game base to build an OOC schedule and promote regional rivalries.

 

[Colin G]

I'd really like to see more Yale, CCSU, Sacred Heart, Quinnipiac and Fairfield in the ooc, make those the extent of the "cupcakes", all local and building up CT basketball.

100% agree. Even playing games vs schools like URI or UVM would get us some local games vs higher rated teams would help the SOS. And either a H/H with Cuse or play it at the garden every year

 

[Palatine]

#15 defense on Feb 5th.

 

[tzznandrew]

We play too many of these games. Theyre bad to watch, bad for team development, bad for our budget.

You're already starting to see this in the discourse around who should be the #1 overall seed. The 8-0 against Q4 doesn't help.

 

[husky429]

I'd be curious to know who in the AD prefers this super-cupcake schedule.

 

[Tenspro2002]

You're already starting to see this in the discourse around who should be the #1 overall seed. The 8-0 against Q4 doesn't help.

That discourse is dumb and we should not entertain it.

Beating #150 instead of #350 should have no bearing on whether a team is the #1 or #2 overall seed.

 

[tzznandrew]

That discourse is dumb and we should not entertain it.

Beating #150 instead of #350 should have no bearing on whether a team is the #1 or #2 overall seed.

The discourse is also that they're 15-2 vs. Q1&2 whereas we're 11-2. Or that they have far more wins in Q1A.

While I largely agree that it shouldn't factor in, I'm betting it's a tie breaker. And as I've argued again and again they're bad games with no juice and little to no upside.

 

[tzznandrew]

I'd be curious to know who in the AD prefers this super-cupcake schedule.

What's crazy is that there were so many great top level games. Gonzaga will always be a Q1 win, but they're skirting the Q1a line (27 rather than 25). Creighton is at 16, just missing the Q1a line for home teams (15). It's why some of these "bands" aren't really worth worrying about until March.

 

[Peacefrog]

You're already starting to see this in the discourse around who should be the #1 overall seed. The 8-0 against Q4 doesn't help.

This is what we get for ducking Bryant /s

 

[Hans Sprungfeld]

I'd really like to see more Yale, CCSU, Sacred Heart, Quinnipiac and Fairfield in the ooc, make those the extent of the "cupcakes", all local and building up CT basketball.

I usually write something like this every year, and it gets little response.

To me, it seems like an obvious good idea to promote statewide basketball interest and boost economic activity by likely bringing fans of other D-1 programs to Storrs or Hartford, whether as single game ticket buyers, companions of UConn season ticket holders, or receivers of gifted tickets from friends who root for UConn.

I'd even favor a neutral site game at Bridgeport or Mohegan Sun if it would make financial sense. And games against multiple in-state competition would fit with UConn's current in-game TV commercial that promotes UConn as a multi-campus institution that benefits the entire state.

I imagined that the lack of response to this idea has some obvious/sound basis that eludes me, but I've never heard it.

Playing former Yankee Conference teams might hold a sentimental appeal, and build a regional identity, but I'm not as enthused about that angle. I'm mostly looking at schools that would bring more meaning to the buy-in portion of the schedule

 

[navery12]

I get it from a fan perspective, I'd always rather watch us play opponents I recognize and have at least a little bit of talent. But didn't hurt us last year and doesn't seem likely to this year, so until it negatively impacts the team it's hard to see it changing. Until then we're stuck with bottom of the barrel teams like MVSU, LIU, Cuse, Stonehill