AD: ECU will feel financial crunch next 2-3 years

[Husky25]

So the school sponsors a professional de facto football team? That reeks of antitrust, and the men's and women's basketball teams remain amateur, as well as the field hockey team, soccer team? Talk about discrimination. Last I heard, players not even remotely interested in academics flunk out?

That's my point. The academic facade is thin enough as it is and it wouldn't just be the football program. You think the NCAA would allow football programs to escape their purview but still pay out for basketball? I don't. IF a breakaway were to occur (won't), it would have to be all or nothing and that signals the Enola Gay taking off.

 

[huskyrob1]

That's my point. The academic facade is thin enough as it is. IF a breakaway were to occur (won't), that is the Enola Gay taking off.

I think Uconn's the Enola Gay and it took off two weeks ago, bombs away.

 

[Husky25]

I think Uconn's the Enola Gay and it took off two weeks ago, bombs away.

That would be great, but I'm not convinced. If UConn moved the needle enough, they'd already be at the grown up table.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The record of sports affiliations in anti-trust cases is terrible. Other than the USFL vs. NFL, I believe that the major sports affiliation has lost every time they were sued by a serious plaintiff, and actually the USFL even won but was only awarded $3. The basis for the BCS was an antitrust lawsuit that Georgia and I believe Oklahoma won over the NCAA. The P5 is an illegal cartel in restraint of trade, and will probably lose if it is sued.

The P5 will likely lose if they are ever the target of an anti-trust lawsuit, and they know it. The losses in such a lawsuit could bankrupt schools because of the likely number of plaintiffs and treble damages. Most of the schools involved have already allocated their TV money so it would be painful to have to pay.

That is why the P5 schools are paying the G5 out of the NCAA playoff money, and why they will not break off from the NCAA. There will be this ongoing negotiation with the G5 about how much they should get, and I would actually expect the G5 share of playoff money to go up over time as they get more desperate. The P5 need the G5 to have something to lose if the system blows up.

 

[CL82]

If the P5 can not maintain an amateur status without the NCAA, they instantaneously fall behind the NCAA in terms of benefits they are able to offer.

Huge assumption. Considering the autonomous school break off would have the major institutions in each of the lower 48 states as a member the chance that they would somehow "lose amateur status" is pretty close to zero.

 

[Husky25]

Huge assumption. Considering the autonomous school break off would have the major institutions in each of the lower 48 states as a member the chance that they would somehow "lose amateur status" is pretty close to zero.

And I think it's a greater assumption that if they autonomous group were to split that they would continue to enjoy all the benefits and privledges they currently do with the NCAA.

 

[CL82]

And I think it's a greater assumption that if they autonomous group were to split that they would continue to enjoy all the benefits and privledges they currently do with the NCAA.

Why? They'd form a new organization and it would have whatever benefits, privileges and obligations the schools choose to which the members choose to agree upon.

 

[Husky25]

Why? They'd form a new organization and it would have whatever benefits, privileges and obligations the schools choose to which the members choose to agree upon.

Not a lawyer so I can't name it off the top of my head, but I believe that between non-competes, injunctions, and other legalities, there is enough prevent the P5 conferences from breaking away and creating substantially the same organization as the NCAA. Even if there is not technically what I just described, would it be worth it (both in intangibles and dollars) for these so called institutions of higher learning to fight out a process that would surely take years?

They have autonomy. The G5's beef is not really with the P5 in the 1st place. It's with the CFP committee.

 

[billybud]

The moving to an Autonomous Group within the structure of the NCAA while corralling the money....was a ruthless but pretty good good move.

That move effectively continued and amplified the old BCS classification.

So now, as layers, you have FBS Autonomouse Group (P5), non autonomous FBS (G5) and FCS...all within the NCAA structure.

Why break away?

 

[uconnbill]

Did you read the last page or so? They are not breaking away. The NCAA holds a certain basketball tournament worth $900M/year. They would not risk losing their piece of that pie, while completely revamping their business model, and having to pay their football players at the same time. The latter may happen anyway, but only to a level where an individual player might get a portion of the proceeds of his/her likeness, but only much later. If they break away, player will be owed a salary. The P5 would not be able to sustain a minor League business model without the NCAA.

I'd love it if they did. It'd blow the whole system up. It'd be great, but it's not happening.

Basketball has no say as College football runs the system, period.

This will become more clear when the NBA let's high school players in the draft, which will happen soon.

 

[Husky25]

Basketball has no say as College football runs the system, period.

This will become more clear when the NBA let's high school players in the draft, which will happen soon.

The basketball tournament brings in about 90% of the NCAA's $billion/year revenue.

I'm not convinced they will go back on the 1 and done, which is an NBA rule, not NCAA.

I don't believe NBA owners will reacquire an appetite to pay an 18 year old $millions, and then play wet nurse waiting for the kid to develop and adjust to the real world...or not. Why do that when either college (free, but exposure) or the G League (pittance, no exposure or guaruntees) will do it for them? They've been down that road. I don't think they'll do it again.

 

[billybud]

The top 14 of the NBA draft had 10 freshmen and 2 sophomores.
Looking down the draft's first 20 or so...they are predominantly freshmen and sophomores....young kids.

The better you are, the more likely to leave early, of course.

 

[CL82]

Not a lawyer so I can't name it off the top of my head, but I believe that between non-competes, injunctions, and other legalities, there is enough prevent the P5 conferences from breaking away and creating substantially the same organization as the NCAA

I’m not aware of any of these things actually existing.

Even if there is not technically what I just described, would it be worth it (both in intangibles and dollars) for these so called institutions of higher learning to fight out a process that would surely take years?

For the millions upon millions of dollars that March madness generates? Undoubtedly.

 

[Husky25]

I’m not aware of any of these things actually existing.
For the millions upon millions of dollars that March madness generates? Undoubtedly.

Injunctions exist. Non-competes exist. Be that as it may, I think the forest is getting lost for the trees here. In the unlikely event of those 65 schools attempting to break clear away from the NCAA, they would be essentially admitting that their athletic programs exist for reasons other than the paramount importance of the educational experience of the student athlete (paraphrase of the NCAA mission statement). I also don't think those schools would want to burn their bridge with the NCAA, should they not score on the power play.

It's all moot anyway. Among other reasons, the P5 already has their football autonomy and at nearly 70%, Div. 1 athletics get the lion's share of the NCAA distribution. Best of both worlds. There is no reason to rock the boat.

All that said, I'm getting off this train. There are only so many ways I can restate my stance.

 

[UConnJim]

Basketball has no say as College football runs the system, period.

This will become more clear when the NBA let's high school players in the draft, which will happen soon.

The first statement is true, but the reason college football runs the show has nothing to do about popularity or revenue generation. Then why? The NCAA basketball tournament money goes to the NCAA and funds the NCAA, various other NCAA sports, and even some goes to Division 2 and Division 3. About half goes back to the schools. The NCAA playoff and bowl money goes predominately (75%) to the P5. In fact, the CFP is the only football championship not managed by the NCAA.

The NCAA basketball tournament brings in about $1 billion to the NCAA. Imagine if 75% of that money went to the P5 like the CFP. That would translate to almost $12 million per P5 school per year!

Given that college basketball teams cost substantially less than college football teams, the profits would be very high per school.

 

[CL82]

Injunctions exist. Non-competes exist.

Yes they do, just not in this specific case, as far as I am aware.

In the unlikely event of those 65 schools attempting to break clear away from the NCAA, they would be essentially admitting that their athletic programs exist for reasons other than the paramount importance of the educational experience of the student athlete (paraphrase of the NCAA mission statement).

Not in the least. There's no magic to the NCAA. It is just a voluntary association. Nothing stops schools from walking away and starting a new association. If they are looking for money, it is an easy place to find it.

I fully understand your stance 25, I just disagree with it.

 

[Husky25]

I fully understand your stance 25, I just disagree with it.

Fair enough...

 

[billybud]

The basketball fund (based on performance in the Tournament) also favors the P5 conferences...

2019 Payout per Conference:


B1G.....$35,317,800

ACC.....$33,954,200

SEC......$31,954,200

B12.......$21,863,400

AAC.....$11,772,600

Pac.....$11,772,600

Big E....$8,409,000

 

[CL82]

The basketball fund (based on performance in the Tournament) also favors the P5 conferences...

2019 Payout per Conference:


B1G.....$35,317,800

ACC.....$33,954,200

SEC.$31,954,200

B12..$21,863,400

AAC.....$11,772,600

Pac.....$11,772,600

Big E....$8,409,000

... and it's not like that is all the money they make. They finance all olympic sports championships and all their considerable administrative costs out it. That's money above and beyond the credit numbers (I think that's what you listed) shown above.

 

[billybud]

It is the payout for 2019 on the rolling units....

Theoretically...if the Big East or AAC had the same number of teams that won tourney games at the same ratio over the rolling six year period, they would also earn the P5 amounts.

The numbers selected to dance, by magic formula, per conference has favored the P5. And the more teams playing, the more games that can be won and credits earned.

It boils down to two things in the basketball earnings...

1...Are the selections and seedings defendable?

2...Are the P5 earning the credits on merit by winning games?

I think that you could argue for months (years maybe on the BY) about selections and seeding...their fairness and effect.

The P5 are populating the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four....and thus earning credits.