AD: ECU will feel financial crunch next 2-3 years

[billybud]

People watch big brands....

They tune in marquis matches between big brands....even tune in games between a big brand and a lesser brand.

Ranked teams will have a bigger draw than unranked...

And then there are seasonal stories that draw...a phenomenal freshman, a new coach building a team, etc.

 

[Husky25]

"Power 5" is a football derived designation of institutions. All of them play other sports as well, particularly MBB. If the P5 left the NCAA and set up their own March MBB tournament, it would be worth a big amount of money which they would use to fund their BB and Olympic sports much the NCAA does now. I don't see how it impacts the pay for play issue at all, except, perhaps that it provides another pool of funds to pay for it.

We differ on the amount of money the P5 conferences would be worth as a stand alone entity away from the NCAA. For starters, amateur designation is a huge consideration. The NCAA model of amateurism is already hanging by a thread, if only because big time revenue generating college athletics was nowhere near the money maker in 1906 as it is now. Lower tier pro athletes had to take second off-season jobs as recently as the 1970's to supplement to the point of a viable living.

If the P5 can not maintain an amateur status without the NCAA, they instantaneously fall behind the NCAA in terms of benefits they are able to offer. They also instantaneously begin competing with the non-NFL upstarts for market share. We just saw how a sub-NFL stand alone was able to "accomplish" without competition. The NFL crushed them by merely doing nothing to help. In basketball, they will compete with the NCAA and G league. Not only for market share, but players as well.

Second, none of 1) the number of teams (65), 2) number of players (85 per team in FB alone, 3/4 of whom would have no shot of moving higher), nor 3) total benefit (Cost of attendance + living wage) would be sustainable. Academics are already a paper thin facade for high level programs. If the P5 breaks away, they remove all doubt. Why would they continue paying the freight for "pro" athletes for comparatively little in return?

I'd give it about 5 years if that came to pass and I'm starting to come around to what @freescooter wrote above. I have enjoyed everything my alma mater has allowed me to do and observe over the last 2+decades, but I don't know if I wouldn't mind the system getting hit with a "Fat Man (maybe just a "Little Boy," but still...)."

 

[Guapo]

We differ on the amount of money the P5 conferences would be worth as a stand alone entity away from the NCAA. For starters, amateur designation is a huge consideration. The NCAA model of amateurism is already hanging by a thread, if only because big time revenue generating college athletics was nowhere near the money maker in 1906 as it is now. Lower tier pro athletes had to take second off-season jobs as recently as the 1970's to supplement to the point of a viable living.

If the P5 can not maintain an amateur status without the NCAA, they instantaneously fall behind the NCAA in terms of benefits they are able to offer. They also instantaneously begin competing with the non-NFL upstarts for market share. We just saw how a sub-NFL stand alone was able to "accomplish" without competition. The NFL crushed them by merely doing nothing to help. In basketball, they will compete with the NCAA and G league. Not only for market share, but players as well.

Second, none of 1) the number of teams (65), 2) number of players (85 per team in FB alone, 3/4 of whom would have no shot of moving higher), nor 3) total benefit (Cost of attendance + living wage) would be sustainable. Academics are already a paper thin facade for high level programs. If the P5 breaks away, they remove all doubt. Why would they continue paying the freight for "pro" athletes for comparatively little in return?

I'd give it about 5 years if that came to pass and I'm starting to come around to what @freescooter wrote above. I have enjoyed everything my alma mater has allowed me to do and observe over the last 2+decades, but I don't know if I wouldn't mind the system getting hit with a "Fat Man (maybe just a "Little Boy," but still...)."

Ugh no and the fact that anyone thinks this here shows how little people, especially in the northeast, understand college sports and the deeply entrenched political and financial history of it all.

I’ve said this in another thread, but the idea that the SEC schools would leave Vanderbilt or, say, Mississippi State behind or that other North Carolina schools would actively work to hurt Wake Forest is insane and would never happen for a myriad of different reasons; political, financial and legal etc.

 

[Husky25]

Ugh no and the fact that anyone thinks this here shows how little people, especially in the northeast, understand college sports and the deeply entrenched political and financial history of it all.

I’ve said this in another thread, but the idea that the SEC schools would leave Vanderbilt or, say, Mississippi State behind or that other North Carolina schools would actively work to hurt Wake Forest is insane and would never happen for a myriad of different reasons; political, financial and legal etc.

We agreed yesterday that the P5 have all the separation that they want.

I'll go one further. The presidents know the value of the NCAA and any AD or conference commissioner raising the idea, would not see the end of his/her existing contract.

 

[Guapo]

We agreed yesterday that the P5 have all the separation that they want.

I'll go one further. The presidents know the value of the NCAA and any AD or conference commissioner raising the idea, would not see the end of his/her existing contract.

Yeah I re-read what you wrote and I think I misunderstood what you were saying. BUT I’m going to keep my comment up since I know there are boneyarders out there that think the thoughts I thought I was attacking.

 

[billybud]

Like Guapo...I believe that regionalism and culture still have a hand in some conferences.

For the Big Ten, Rutgers or Maryland might be easier to let go than Northwestern....and in the ACC, Boston or Cuse might be easier than Wake Forest.

As I have seen on this board, there seems to be certain fondness for a past history of playing regional teams.

 

[huskyrob1]

"Power 5" is a football related designation. They would have to replace it with football related revenue. If they split from the NCAA (which they won't) the first thing that happens is it that opens up the amateur question. If they have to play players a salary, they become pros and where is that money going to come from for that?

There is a wide-held misconception that Americans have insatiable appetite for football (and Sports in general). Some do, but in reality, Americans have less appetite for a sub-elite product. You don't have to look to hard for evidence of that (i.e. AAF, XFL V1.0, USFL, AFL, UFL, NFL Europe, MiLB, college baseball, MLS, AHL, college hockey etc.).

I just don't see how football players who are students at a college or University that has split from the NCAA can be paid, regardless of who is paying them? Even if they try it, they would have to pay ALL the student athletes at that school, both men and women. That's an anti trust law violation to the nth degree.

 

[Guapo]

I just don't see how football players who are students at a college or University that has split from the NCAA can be paid? Even if they try it, they would have to pay ALL the student athletes at that school, both men and women. That's an anti trust law violation to the nth degree.

Anti-Trust, title 9, tv contracts the list goes on.

That’s just the tip of the legal heavy-lifting ice berg.

People just don’t understand what a massive undertaking splitting off from the NCAA would be.

 

[Husky25]

I just don't see how football players who are students at a college or University that has split from the NCAA can be paid, regardless of who is paying them? Even if they try it, they would have to pay ALL the student athletes at that school, both men and women. That's an anti trust law violation to the nth degree.

Substance over form.

They would cease being students before too long. Universities would stop paying the freight (room, board, books, and a meager stipend) for players not remotely interested in academics. It's already a thin facade, but justifiable by schools via delicate spin.

 

[huskyrob1]

Substance over form.

They would cease being students before too long. Universities would stop paying the freight (room, board, books, and a meager stipend) for players not remotely interested in academics. It's already a thin facade, but justifiable by schools via delicate spin.

So the school sponsors a professional de facto football team? That reeks of antitrust, and the men's and women's basketball teams remain amateur, as well as the field hockey team, soccer team? Talk about discrimination. Last I heard, players not even remotely interested in academics flunk out?

 

[Husky25]

So the school sponsors a professional de facto football team? That reeks of antitrust, and the men's and women's basketball teams remain amateur, as well as the field hockey team, soccer team? Talk about discrimination. Last I heard, players not even remotely interested in academics flunk out?

That's my point. The academic facade is thin enough as it is and it wouldn't just be the football program. You think the NCAA would allow football programs to escape their purview but still pay out for basketball? I don't. IF a breakaway were to occur (won't), it would have to be all or nothing and that signals the Enola Gay taking off.

 

[huskyrob1]

That's my point. The academic facade is thin enough as it is. IF a breakaway were to occur (won't), that is the Enola Gay taking off.

I think Uconn's the Enola Gay and it took off two weeks ago, bombs away.

 

[Husky25]

I think Uconn's the Enola Gay and it took off two weeks ago, bombs away.

That would be great, but I'm not convinced. If UConn moved the needle enough, they'd already be at the grown up table.

 

[nelsonmuntz]

The record of sports affiliations in anti-trust cases is terrible. Other than the USFL vs. NFL, I believe that the major sports affiliation has lost every time they were sued by a serious plaintiff, and actually the USFL even won but was only awarded $3. The basis for the BCS was an antitrust lawsuit that Georgia and I believe Oklahoma won over the NCAA. The P5 is an illegal cartel in restraint of trade, and will probably lose if it is sued.

The P5 will likely lose if they are ever the target of an anti-trust lawsuit, and they know it. The losses in such a lawsuit could bankrupt schools because of the likely number of plaintiffs and treble damages. Most of the schools involved have already allocated their TV money so it would be painful to have to pay.

That is why the P5 schools are paying the G5 out of the NCAA playoff money, and why they will not break off from the NCAA. There will be this ongoing negotiation with the G5 about how much they should get, and I would actually expect the G5 share of playoff money to go up over time as they get more desperate. The P5 need the G5 to have something to lose if the system blows up.

 

[CL82]

If the P5 can not maintain an amateur status without the NCAA, they instantaneously fall behind the NCAA in terms of benefits they are able to offer.

Huge assumption. Considering the autonomous school break off would have the major institutions in each of the lower 48 states as a member the chance that they would somehow "lose amateur status" is pretty close to zero.

 

[Husky25]

Huge assumption. Considering the autonomous school break off would have the major institutions in each of the lower 48 states as a member the chance that they would somehow "lose amateur status" is pretty close to zero.

And I think it's a greater assumption that if they autonomous group were to split that they would continue to enjoy all the benefits and privledges they currently do with the NCAA.

 

[CL82]

And I think it's a greater assumption that if they autonomous group were to split that they would continue to enjoy all the benefits and privledges they currently do with the NCAA.

Why? They'd form a new organization and it would have whatever benefits, privileges and obligations the schools choose to which the members choose to agree upon.

 

[Husky25]

Why? They'd form a new organization and it would have whatever benefits, privileges and obligations the schools choose to which the members choose to agree upon.

Not a lawyer so I can't name it off the top of my head, but I believe that between non-competes, injunctions, and other legalities, there is enough prevent the P5 conferences from breaking away and creating substantially the same organization as the NCAA. Even if there is not technically what I just described, would it be worth it (both in intangibles and dollars) for these so called institutions of higher learning to fight out a process that would surely take years?

They have autonomy. The G5's beef is not really with the P5 in the 1st place. It's with the CFP committee.

 

[billybud]

The moving to an Autonomous Group within the structure of the NCAA while corralling the money....was a ruthless but pretty good good move.

That move effectively continued and amplified the old BCS classification.

So now, as layers, you have FBS Autonomouse Group (P5), non autonomous FBS (G5) and FCS...all within the NCAA structure.

Why break away?

 

[uconnbill]

Did you read the last page or so? They are not breaking away. The NCAA holds a certain basketball tournament worth $900M/year. They would not risk losing their piece of that pie, while completely revamping their business model, and having to pay their football players at the same time. The latter may happen anyway, but only to a level where an individual player might get a portion of the proceeds of his/her likeness, but only much later. If they break away, player will be owed a salary. The P5 would not be able to sustain a minor League business model without the NCAA.

I'd love it if they did. It'd blow the whole system up. It'd be great, but it's not happening.

Basketball has no say as College football runs the system, period.

This will become more clear when the NBA let's high school players in the draft, which will happen soon.

 

[Husky25]

Basketball has no say as College football runs the system, period.

This will become more clear when the NBA let's high school players in the draft, which will happen soon.

The basketball tournament brings in about 90% of the NCAA's $billion/year revenue.

I'm not convinced they will go back on the 1 and done, which is an NBA rule, not NCAA.

I don't believe NBA owners will reacquire an appetite to pay an 18 year old $millions, and then play wet nurse waiting for the kid to develop and adjust to the real world...or not. Why do that when either college (free, but exposure) or the G League (pittance, no exposure or guaruntees) will do it for them? They've been down that road. I don't think they'll do it again.

 

[billybud]

The top 14 of the NBA draft had 10 freshmen and 2 sophomores.
Looking down the draft's first 20 or so...they are predominantly freshmen and sophomores....young kids.

The better you are, the more likely to leave early, of course.

 

[CL82]

Not a lawyer so I can't name it off the top of my head, but I believe that between non-competes, injunctions, and other legalities, there is enough prevent the P5 conferences from breaking away and creating substantially the same organization as the NCAA

I’m not aware of any of these things actually existing.

Even if there is not technically what I just described, would it be worth it (both in intangibles and dollars) for these so called institutions of higher learning to fight out a process that would surely take years?

For the millions upon millions of dollars that March madness generates? Undoubtedly.

 

[Husky25]

I’m not aware of any of these things actually existing.
For the millions upon millions of dollars that March madness generates? Undoubtedly.

Injunctions exist. Non-competes exist. Be that as it may, I think the forest is getting lost for the trees here. In the unlikely event of those 65 schools attempting to break clear away from the NCAA, they would be essentially admitting that their athletic programs exist for reasons other than the paramount importance of the educational experience of the student athlete (paraphrase of the NCAA mission statement). I also don't think those schools would want to burn their bridge with the NCAA, should they not score on the power play.

It's all moot anyway. Among other reasons, the P5 already has their football autonomy and at nearly 70%, Div. 1 athletics get the lion's share of the NCAA distribution. Best of both worlds. There is no reason to rock the boat.

All that said, I'm getting off this train. There are only so many ways I can restate my stance.

 

[UConnJim]

Basketball has no say as College football runs the system, period.

This will become more clear when the NBA let's high school players in the draft, which will happen soon.

The first statement is true, but the reason college football runs the show has nothing to do about popularity or revenue generation. Then why? The NCAA basketball tournament money goes to the NCAA and funds the NCAA, various other NCAA sports, and even some goes to Division 2 and Division 3. About half goes back to the schools. The NCAA playoff and bowl money goes predominately (75%) to the P5. In fact, the CFP is the only football championship not managed by the NCAA.

The NCAA basketball tournament brings in about $1 billion to the NCAA. Imagine if 75% of that money went to the P5 like the CFP. That would translate to almost $12 million per P5 school per year!

Given that college basketball teams cost substantially less than college football teams, the profits would be very high per school.